What changed since yesterday

The latest forecast against the last one at least 20 hours older

Chambers

Chamber	Then	Now	D seats then	D seats now
House	98%	98%	242	243
Senate	39–45%	39–47%	49	50
Governors	23%	39%	23	25

Races that moved on new information (12)

Race	Rating	Democratic chance
MN senate	Lean D (unchanged)	62% → 77%
ME senate	Lean R (unchanged)	37% → 31%
FL senate	Likely R (unchanged)	11% → 15%
TX senate	Toss-up (unchanged)	46% → 44%
GA senate	Likely D (unchanged)	88% → 85%
GA governor	Toss-up (unchanged)	53% → 56%
OH senate	Lean D → Toss-up	61% → 58%
LA senate	Likely R (unchanged)	9% → 6%
IA governor	Lean D (unchanged)	69% → 71%
KS governor	Toss-up → Lean R	41% → 39%
AZ governor	Likely D → Lean D	86% → 84%
AL governor	Likely R → Safe R	5% → 4%

Races re-rated by a model change (185)

These moved because the forecast's method changed (for the House, the ground-up model replaced the previous one on 1 October), not because anything happened in the race. They are listed so the moves are not mistaken for news.

Race	Rating	Democratic chance
WI-3	Lean D → Lean R	84% → 19%
CO-3	Lean D → Lean R	78% → 18%
FL-26	Lean D → Lean R	82% → 28%
OH-10	Lean D → Lean R	69% → 21%
CO-4	Toss-up → Likely R	53% → 10%
WI-1	Lean D → Lean R	61% → 18%
PA-10	Likely D → Toss-up	88% → 46%
FL-27	Toss-up → Likely R	51% → 9%
FL-28	Toss-up → Likely R	48% → 7%
FL-21	Toss-up → Likely R	55% → 13%
PA-8	Likely D → Toss-up	87% → 46%
TN-8	Lean D → Lean R	65% → 24%
NY-1	Toss-up → Lean R	59% → 21%
CA-22	Likely D → Toss-up	85% → 49%
AZ-8	Toss-up → Likely R	46% → 11%
FL-13	Lean D → Lean R	67% → 32%
AZ-6	Likely D → Toss-up	87% → 52%
TN-5	Likely R → Toss-up	10% → 44%
WI-8	Toss-up → Likely R	40% → 12%
FL-12	Toss-up → Likely R	42% → 15%
FL-5	Toss-up → Lean R	45% → 20%
IA-1	Likely D → Lean D	90% → 66%
OH-15	Likely D → Lean D	87% → 64%
MN-8	Lean R → Likely R	34% → 11%
IA-3	Lean D (unchanged)	83% → 61%
TN-9	Likely R → Lean R	12% → 34%
PA-7	Likely D → Lean D	89% → 67%
KY-6	Likely R → Lean R	8% → 30%
FL-18	Lean R → Likely R	29% → 7%
FL-8	Lean R (unchanged)	37% → 15%
MT-1	Lean D → Toss-up	71% → 50%
MI-10	Lean D → Toss-up	76% → 55%
NC-14	Lean R (unchanged)	37% → 16%
FL-11	Toss-up → Lean R	45% → 25%
TX-24	Lean R → Likely R	33% → 13%
OH-8	Lean R (unchanged)	38% → 19%
VA-1	Toss-up → Lean D	47% → 66%
FL-7	Toss-up → Lean D	55% → 74%
NC-7	Toss-up → Lean R	42% → 23%
MO-2	Toss-up → Lean R	52% → 34%
OH-14	Lean R → Likely R	30% → 12%
AZ-2	Lean D → Toss-up	65% → 47%
IA-2	Lean R → Toss-up	36% → 54%
NC-13	Lean R → Likely R	31% → 13%
NV-2	Lean R (unchanged)	19% → 36%
TX-28	Lean D → Likely D	73% → 89%
KS-2	Lean R → Likely R	23% → 7%
OH-9	Lean D → Likely D	70% → 86%
NC-11	Lean D → Toss-up	62% → 47%
CO-8	Likely D → Lean D	89% → 74%
CA-1	Safe D → Lean D	97% → 82%
TX-34	Lean D → Likely D	73% → 87%
NC-6	Lean R (unchanged)	30% → 16%
TN-4	Lean R → Likely R	27% → 13%
NC-10	Lean R → Likely R	28% → 14%
TX-15	Lean R → Likely R	28% → 14%
MI-7	Lean D (unchanged)	83% → 69%
FL-14	Lean D → Safe D	83% → 97%
FL-17	Lean R → Safe R	16% → 3%
FL-4	Lean R → Likely R	23% → 10%
GA-1	Likely R → Lean R	9% → 23%
FL-23	Lean D → Safe D	83% → 97%
CA-23	Lean R → Likely R	22% → 9%
MN-1	Lean R (unchanged)	28% → 15%
FL-3	Lean R → Safe R	17% → 5%
NY-2	Lean R → Likely R	21% → 9%
OH-5	Lean R → Safe R	16% → 3%
MI-4	Toss-up → Lean D	52% → 64%
AL-6	Lean R → Likely R	17% → 5%
NJ-7	Lean D (unchanged)	79% → 67%
AL-2	Toss-up → Lean D	55% → 67%
NC-8	Lean R → Likely R	23% → 12%
FL-9	Toss-up → Lean D	54% → 66%
NC-1	Lean D (unchanged)	69% → 80%
TX-27	Lean R → Likely R	17% → 7%
OH-7	Likely D → Lean D	89% → 79%
OH-1	Lean D → Likely D	82% → 92%
CA-5	Lean R → Likely R	19% → 9%
TX-5	Lean R → Likely R	18% → 8%
TX-17	Lean R → Likely R	16% → 7%
TX-26	Likely R → Safe R	12% → 3%
MI-1	Lean R → Likely R	15% → 6%
FL-15	Likely R → Safe R	12% → 3%
FL-19	Likely R → Safe R	10% → 1%
TX-12	Likely R → Safe R	12% → 4%
TX-32	Lean R (unchanged)	27% → 35%
AL-7	Likely D → Safe D	91% → 99%
TX-6	Likely R (unchanged)	13% → 5%
TX-23	Lean R (unchanged)	38% → 30%
TX-31	Likely R (unchanged)	15% → 7%
AR-2	Lean R (unchanged)	26% → 18%
OH-13	Likely D → Safe D	89% → 97%
TX-25	Likely R → Safe R	12% → 4%
FL-2	Lean R (unchanged)	27% → 20%
TN-7	Lean R → Likely R	20% → 12%
NE-1	Lean R → Likely R	21% → 13%
TX-14	Likely R → Safe R	12% → 4%
WA-5	Lean R (unchanged)	16% → 23%
AZ-1	Lean D (unchanged)	82% → 74%
TX-10	Likely R (unchanged)	14% → 6%
FL-22	Lean D (unchanged)	76% → 83%
TX-22	Likely R (unchanged)	13% → 6%
MO-3	Likely R → Safe R	7% → 1%
NC-5	Lean R (unchanged)	29% → 22%
VA-5	Lean R (unchanged)	37% → 30%
SC-4	Likely R (unchanged)	14% → 7%
FL-6	Likely R → Safe R	11% → 5%
TX-4	Likely R → Safe R	11% → 5%
TX-3	Likely R (unchanged)	12% → 6%
WI-7	Likely R (unchanged)	6% → 12%
GA-14	Likely R → Safe R	6% → 0%
OH-6	Likely R → Safe R	7% → 1%
OH-12	Likely R → Safe R	7% → 1%
AL-5	Likely R → Safe R	7% → 1%
VA-2	Lean D (unchanged)	84% → 79%
NY-17	Lean D (unchanged)	74% → 69%
OR-5	Likely D → Safe D	93% → 99%
TX-36	Likely R → Safe R	10% → 5%
CA-48	Likely D (unchanged)	92% → 87%
TX-21	Lean R → Likely R	16% → 11%
PA-16	Likely R → Safe R	7% → 2%
PA-11	Likely R → Safe R	8% → 3%
WA-4	Safe R → Likely R	5% → 10%
SC-2	Lean R (unchanged)	20% → 15%
WA-3	Likely D (unchanged)	95% → 90%
GA-10	Likely R (unchanged)	8% → 13%
IN-2	Likely R → Safe R	6% → 1%
IA-4	Safe R → Likely R	2% → 7%
NY-3	Likely D (unchanged)	95% → 90%
SC-7	Likely R → Safe R	6% → 1%
FL governor	Lean R (unchanged)	30% → 26%
TN-6	Likely R → Safe R	8% → 4%
CA-13	Likely D (unchanged)	94% → 90%
UT-2	Safe R (unchanged)	5% → 1%
NY-19	Likely D → Safe D	93% → 97%
GA-12	Lean R → Likely R	18% → 14%
TX-38	Lean R → Likely R	18% → 14%
ID-2	Safe R (unchanged)	4% → 1%
KY-4	Safe R (unchanged)	4% → 1%
PA-1	Toss-up (unchanged)	48% → 44%
VA-10	Likely D → Safe D	95% → 98%
MT-2	Safe R (unchanged)	4% → 0%
AZ-9	Safe R (unchanged)	4% → 0%
SC-1	Lean R (unchanged)	30% → 34%
NY-11	Likely R → Safe R	6% → 2%
FL-25	Likely D (unchanged)	89% → 93%
FL-20	Safe D (unchanged)	96% → 100%
VA-6	Likely R → Safe R	6% → 2%
ME-2	Likely D (unchanged)	92% → 88%
MD-1	Likely R (unchanged)	14% → 11%
NH-2	Safe D (unchanged)	96% → 99%
CA-20	Safe R (unchanged)	4% → 0%
UT-4	Safe R (unchanged)	4% → 0%
CT-5	Safe D (unchanged)	96% → 99%
NY-24	Safe R (unchanged)	4% → 1%
TN-2	Safe R (unchanged)	4% → 1%
IN-9	Safe R (unchanged)	3% → 0%
MI-2	Safe R (unchanged)	3% → 0%
MN-6	Likely R (unchanged)	10% → 7%
NE-2	Likely D (unchanged)	88% → 91%
TX-11	Safe R (unchanged)	3% → 0%
TN-3	Safe R (unchanged)	3% → 0%
IN-3	Safe R (unchanged)	3% → 0%
OR-6	Safe D (unchanged)	96% → 99%
PA-14	Safe R (unchanged)	3% → 0%
GA-3	Safe R (unchanged)	3% → 0%
ND-AL	Safe R (unchanged)	3% → 0%
NC-9	Lean R (unchanged)	33% → 30%
IN-6	Safe R (unchanged)	4% → 1%
OK-1	Likely R (unchanged)	7% → 10%
NY-22	Safe D (unchanged)	97% → 99%
NJ-3	Safe D (unchanged)	97% → 99%
MI-8	Safe D (unchanged)	95% → 98%
IL-16	Likely R → Safe R	6% → 4%
TX-8	Likely R → Safe R	7% → 4%
AR-3	Safe R (unchanged)	4% → 1%
PA-17	Safe D (unchanged)	97% → 99%
NH-1	Safe D → Likely D	96% → 94%
MI-3	Safe D (unchanged)	97% → 99%
CA-39	Safe D (unchanged)	97% → 99%
FL-1	Safe R (unchanged)	2% → 0%
KS-4	Safe R (unchanged)	4% → 2%
SC-5	Likely R → Safe R	7% → 5%
NM-2	Likely D → Safe D	94% → 96%
GA-7	Likely R → Safe R	5% → 4%