CA-13 · House

The district, in brief

California's 13th is on a map first used in 2026, but the text says nothing about the district's lines or how they changed, and gives no presidential result.

The incumbent is Democrat Adam Gray, who flipped the district in 2024 with 50.03%. The Republican who advanced from the top-two primary is Kevin Lincoln, former mayor of Stockton (2021–2025) and the 2024 runner-up in the 9th district. Gray led the primary with 41.97% to Lincoln's 27.74%; Vin Kruttiventi, another Republican, took 15.19% and Democrat Daniel Garibay Rodriguez 15.10%. Javier Lopez, mayor of Ceres, withdrew, and former U.S. representative John Duarte declined to run, first endorsing Lopez and then switching to Lincoln. The text's endorsement blocks are not labelled by candidate; the block containing Duarte's switch to Lincoln also lists Donald Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson and Steve Scalise, while another lists AIPAC, Democratic Majority for Israel and the California Democratic Party. As of May 13, 2026 Gray had raised $3,588,015 with $1,744,283 on hand, and Lincoln $1,461,225 with $428,025 on hand.

Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), Inside Elections (November 6, 2025), the Cook Political Report (January 15, 2026), Sabato's Crystal Ball (November 5, 2025) and The Economist (May 6, 2026) all call the seat D. No polls are listed.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: The facts mark the district as redrawn for 2026, but the text says nothing about the lines.; The text gives no presidential results for the district.; No polls of any kind are listed.; The endorsement blocks have lost their candidate headings; only Duarte's switch to Lincoln is explicit.; Ratings are 'D' only, with no Lean/Likely/Safe gradation.; No fundraising later than May 13, 2026.

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 5cec783f78c8; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

Who holds the seat now

Adam Gray (Democrat), in this chamber since 2025, 1 term. Committees: House Committee on Natural Resources; House Committee on Agriculture.

From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 14.4 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

Who are the voters?

Of about 451,308 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 58.9% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 58.7% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 0.3 points toward Republicans. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.

Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.

The money

FEC bulk candidate summaries through June 30, 2026; $65,889 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.

The district in numbers

ACS 5-year 2023, assembled from census tracts by the 2020 population of their blocks inside the current lines, because the Bureau has not tabulated these lines; medians are population-weighted means of tract medians. Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.

Who is favoured, and by how much?

The 90% interval runs from -3.5 to +26.7 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.

What is this built on?

A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.

Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.

Why does the model say this?

Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: experience gap (+3 levels, D minus R): 3.9 pts toward the Democrat; PAC money balance: 3.2 pts toward the Democrat; outside money balance: 2.0 pts toward the Republican; 2024 presidential lean (D+2.0): 1.9 pts toward the Democrat; Democrat's experience (incumbent): 1.8 pts toward the Democrat.

How sure is it, and of what?

Total sd 9.14 points, made of the seat's own volatility 90%, correlated polling error 10%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.

How was this number made?

Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).