Texas House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
2%chance of a Democratic majority
98%chance of a Republican majority
76seats for a majority, of 150
150 of 150 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 63 seats after November (80% range 60–69) and Republicans 87 (81–90). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
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Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Chris Spencer (R), Sean Huffman (D) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 2 | Forecast | Fatima La'Juan Muse (D), Brent A. Money (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | Forecast | Nicole King (D), Kristen Plaisance (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 4 | Forecast | Keith Bell (R), Mark A. Moseley (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 5 | Forecast | Cole Hefner (R), Hector Garza (D) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 6 | Forecast | Lorenzo Johnson (D), Daniel Alders (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 7 | Forecast | Fantasha Allen (D), Jay Dean (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 8 | Forecast | Cody Harris (R), Jeff Chavez (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 9 | Forecast | Shelley Tatum (D), Rocky Thigpen (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 10 | Forecast | Michael Myers (D), Brian Harrison (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 11 | Forecast | Roxanne Lathan (D), Joanne Shofner (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 12 | Forecast | Andie Ho (D), Trey Wharton (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 13 | Forecast | Angelia Orr (R), Albert Hunter (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Forecast | Janet Tycelia Dudding (D), Jeff Miller (Libertarian), Paul Dyson (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 15 | Forecast | Brad Bailey (R), Moniqua' S. Scott (D), Jessi Cowart (Libertarian) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 16 | Forecast | Will Metcalf (R), Bobbie Clayton (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Forecast | Stan Gerdes (R), Mary Elizabeth Klenz (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | Forecast | Valorie Barton (D), Janis Holt (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | Forecast | Tom Luck (D), Ellen Troxclair (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Forecast | Terry M. Wilson (R), Matthias-Jonah Early (D) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 21 | Forecast | Ray Callas (R), Jacqueline "Jacky" Hernandez (D) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Christian Manuel (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 23 | Forecast | Terri Leo Wilson (R), Cheryl Lynn Clark (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 24 | Forecast | Greg Bonnen (R), Frank N Carr (D) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 25 | Forecast | Mike Meadors (D), Cody Thane Vasut (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Forecast | Matt Morgan (R), Elizabeth "Eliz" Markowitz (D) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 27 | Forecast | Max Alalibo (R), Ron Reynolds (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 28 | Forecast | Gary Gates (R), Sandy Ibanez (D) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 29 | Forecast | Jeff Barry (R), Karen Reeder (D) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 30 | Forecast | Aj Louderback (R), Crystal Sedillo (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 31 | Forecast | Ryan Guillen (R), Jennifer "Jj" Dominguez (D) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 32 | Forecast | Todd Hunter (R), Gabriel "Gabe" Lozano Marroquin (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 33 | Forecast | Katrina Pierson (R), Orlando Lopez (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 34 | Forecast | Stephanie Guerrero Saenz (D), Denise Villalobos (R) | 11% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 35 | Forecast | Oscar Rosa (R), Oscar Longoria (D) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 36 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sergio Muñoz Jr. (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 37 | Forecast | Janie Lopez (R), Oziel "Ozzie" Ochoa Jr. (D) | 12% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 38 | Forecast | Erin Elizabeth Gamez (D), Laura E. Cisneros (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 39 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Armando Mando Martinez (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 40 | Forecast | Terry Canales (D), Celeste Cabrera-Huff (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 41 | Forecast | Julio Salinas (D), Gary Groves (R) | 86% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 42 | Forecast | Teresa Johnson-Hernandez (R), Richard Pena Raymond (D) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 43 | Forecast | J.m. Lozano (R), Jeffrey T Jackson (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 44 | Forecast | Alan Schoolcraft (R), Eric Norman (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 45 | Forecast | Erin Zwiener (D), Tennyson G. Moreno (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 46 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sheryl Cole (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 47 | Forecast | Pooja Sethi (D), Jennifer Mushtaler (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 48 | Forecast | Anthony Gupta (R), Donna Howard (D) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 49 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Arshia Papari (Green), Montserrat Garibay (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 50 | Forecast | Samantha Lopez-Resendez (D), Howard Olsen (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 51 | Forecast | Maria Luisa "Lulu" Flores (D), Jessica Martinez (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 52 | Forecast | Caroline Harris Davila (R), Chris Jimenez (D) | 8% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 53 | Forecast | Wes Virdell (R), Kathryn Hartmann (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 54 | Forecast | Brad Buckley (R), Dawn Richardson (D) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 55 | Forecast | Amelia Rabroker (D), Hillary Hickland (R) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 56 | Forecast | Pat Curry (R), Ashley Bean Thornton (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 57 | Forecast | Darren Hamilton (Libertarian), Ray Stith (D), Richard Hayes (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 58 | Forecast | Chris Oldham (D), Helen Kerwin (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 59 | Forecast | Shelby Slawson (R), Andrew Turner (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 60 | Forecast | Krissy Guess (D), Mike Olcott (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 61 | Forecast | Anissa Chilmeran (Green), Brittany Black (D), Keresa Richardson (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 62 | Forecast | Shelley Luther (R), Catherine Thorne (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 63 | Forecast | Denise Wooten (D), Ben Bumgarner (R) | 10% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 64 | Forecast | Andy Hopper (R), Julie Evans (D) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 65 | Forecast | Mitch Little (R), Detrick Deburr (D) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 66 | Forecast | Matt Shaheen (R), Sandeep Srivastava (D) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 67 | Forecast | Jordan Wheatley (D), Jeff Leach (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 68 | Forecast | Jasmine Henderson (D), David Spiller (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 69 | Forecast | James B. Frank (R), Leilani Barnett (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 70 | Forecast | George Flint (R), Mihaela Elizabeth Plesa (D) | 90% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 71 | Forecast | Jay Hardaway (R), Diana Luna (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 72 | Forecast | Shiloh Salazar (D), Drew Darby (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 73 | Forecast | Carrie Isaac (R), Merrie Fox (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 74 | Forecast | Robert Garza (R), Eddie Morales Jr. (D) | 88% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 75 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mary E Gonzalez (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 76 | Forecast | Suleman Lalani (D), Linda Howell (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 77 | Forecast | Humberto Perez (R), Vincent "Vince" Perez (D) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 78 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Joe Moody (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 79 | Forecast | Claudia Ordaz (D), Jesse Romero (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 80 | Forecast | Cecilia Castellano (D), Don McLaughlin (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 81 | Forecast | Ceasar Sanchez (D), Brooks Landgraf (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 82 | Forecast | Cathy Broadrick (D), Tom Craddick (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 83 | Forecast | Malik Williams (D), Dustin Burrows (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 84 | Forecast | Margaret Durham (D), Carl Tepper (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 85 | Forecast | Lawrence Brandyburg (D), Dennis "Goose" Geesaman (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 86 | Forecast | Holly Jeffreys (R), Cullin Knutson (D) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 87 | Forecast | Caroline Fairly (R), Diana Loya (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 88 | Forecast | Heather J. Wallace (D), Ken King (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 89 | Forecast | Angie Carraway (D), Candy Noble (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 90 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ramon Romero Jr. (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 91 | Forecast | David Lowe (R), Yisak Worku (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 92 | Forecast | Jp Woodruff (R), Salman Bhojani (D) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 93 | Forecast | Alan Blaylock (R), Ericka Lomick (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 94 | Forecast | Katie O'Brien Duzan (D), Cheryl Bean (R) | 21% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 95 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Nicole Collier (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 96 | Forecast | Ebony M. Turner (D), Ellen Fleischmann (R) | 12% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 97 | Forecast | Beth Llewellyn McLaughlin (D), John W. McQueeney (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 98 | Forecast | Armin Mizani (R), Cate Brennan (D) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 99 | Forecast | Michelle Winder (D), Charlie Geren (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 100 | Forecast | Jordan Scott Hoffnagle (R), Venton Jones (D) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 101 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Junior Ezeonu (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 102 | Forecast | Bonnie Abadie (R), Ana-Maria Rodriguez Ramos (D) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 103 | Forecast | Melanie Medley-Thomas (R), Rafael Anchia (D) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 104 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jessica Gonzalez (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 105 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Terry Meza (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 106 | Forecast | Joe Mayes (D), Jared Patterson (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 107 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Linda Garcia (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 108 | Forecast | Allison Mitchell (D), Morgan Meyer (R) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 109 | Forecast | Will Campbell (R), Aicha Davis (D) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 110 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Toni Rose (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 111 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Yvonne Davis (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 112 | Forecast | Zach Herbert (D), Angie Chen Button (R) | 18% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 113 | Forecast | Stephen W. Stanley (R), Rhetta Andrews Bowers (D) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 114 | Forecast | John Bryant (D), Tim McDonough (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 115 | Forecast | Cassandra Hernandez (D), Danny Rosellini (R) | 95% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 116 | Forecast | Rhett Rosenquest Smith (R), Trey Martinez Fischer (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 117 | Forecast | Ben Mostyn (R), Philip Cortez (D) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 118 | Forecast | Kristian Carranza (D), Jorge Borrego (R) | 50% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 119 | Forecast | Elizabeth "Liz" Campos (D), Melva Perez (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 120 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Barbara Gervin Hawkins (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 121 | Forecast | Zack Dunn (D), Marc Lahood (R) | 26% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 122 | Forecast | Shelly Nickels (D), Mark Dorazio (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 123 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Diego Bernal (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 124 | Forecast | Sylvia Soto (R), Josey Garcia (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 125 | Forecast | Adrian Reyna (D), Ricardo 'Rick' Martinez (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 126 | Forecast | Stefanie Bord (D), Stan Stanart (R) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 127 | Forecast | Michelle Williams (D), Charles Cunningham (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 128 | Forecast | Tom Butler (R), Desiree Klaus (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 129 | Forecast | Scott Bowen (R), Albert Wittliff (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 130 | Forecast | Brett Robinson (D), Tom Oliverson (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 131 | Forecast | Staci Childs (D), Scott Whitmarsh (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 132 | Forecast | Sara McGee (D), Mike Schofield (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 133 | Forecast | Josh Wallenstein (D), Mano Deayala (R) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 134 | Forecast | Ann Johnson (D), Mike Michna (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 135 | Forecast | Odus E. Evbagharu (D), Liz Ramos (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 136 | Forecast | John H. Bucy III (D), Theodore Schramm (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 137 | Forecast | Gene Wu (D), Helen Zhou (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 138 | Forecast | Tyler Smith (D), Lacey Hull (R) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 139 | Forecast | Kyle Harding (R), Charlene Ward Johnson (D) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 140 | Forecast | Laura Garcia Deleon (R), Armando Lucio Walle (D) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 141 | Forecast | Senfronia Thompson (D), Julie Hunt (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 142 | Forecast | Heidi Hall (R), Harold V. Dutton Jr. (D) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 143 | Forecast | Ana Hernandez (D), Frank Salazar (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 144 | Forecast | Mary Ann Perez (D), David Flores (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 145 | Forecast | Christina Morales (D), Inocensia Moreno (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 146 | Forecast | Lauren Ashley Simmons (D), Alexandria Nicole Butler (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 147 | Forecast | Theodis Daniel (R), Jolanda Jones (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 148 | Forecast | Penny Morales Shaw (D), Amanda Labrie (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 149 | Forecast | Dave Bennett (R), Darlene Breaux (D) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 150 | Forecast | Valoree Swanson (R), A'Yonna Kellum (D) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |