FL-27 · House

The district, in brief

Florida's 27th is on a map first used in 2026; the text does not describe the new lines. The incumbent is Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, re-elected with 60.4% in 2024, who won her primary 81.3% to 18.7% over attorney Vincent Michael Arias.

The Democratic nominee is Eliott Rodriguez, a television journalist, who won the primary 53.5% to 46.5% over Robin Peguero, an attorney and former investigative counsel for the January 6 Committee who had raised $1,022,259 and was endorsed by 2024 candidate Mike Davey. Richard Lamondin withdrew to run for state senate and Lev Parnas withdrew to run in the 22nd district as an independent. As of July 29, 2026 Salazar had raised $1,999,399 with $2,259,547 on hand; Rodriguez had raised $661,173 with $325,097 on hand.

Every rater listed calls the seat R: Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report (September 25, 2026), Inside Elections (September 17, 2026), Sabato's Crystal Ball (September 22, 2026) and The Economist (May 6, 2026). Three general-election polls are recorded, all from Democratic firms: Tulchin Research (September 8–13, 2026, 600 LV) had Salazar 47%, Rodriguez 46%; Bendixen & Amandi International (August 25–30, 2026, 600 LV) had 45% each; Blueprint Polling (March 6–8, 2026, 451 RV) had Salazar 46%, Rodriguez 43%.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: All three general-election polls are from Democratic firms; no non-partisan or Republican poll of the nominees is recorded, and the model's basis says no district polls.; The text does not describe the redrawn district's geography or give a presidential result on the new lines.; No rating finer than 'R' is given.; The endorsement sections are empty for both nominees.; The text spells the Democratic nominee both 'Eliott' and 'Elliott' Rodriguez.

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 27e2e54e6981; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

Who holds the seat now

Maria Elvira Salazar (Republican), in this chamber since 2021, 3 terms. Committees: House Committee on Financial Services; House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 41.8 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

Who are the voters?

Of about 558,334 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 49.9% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 49.9% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 0.2 points toward Democrats. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.

Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.

The money

FEC bulk candidate summaries through July 29, 2026; $71,252 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.

The district in numbers

ACS 5-year 2023, assembled from census tracts by the 2020 population of their blocks inside the current lines, because the Bureau has not tabulated these lines; medians are population-weighted means of tract medians. Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.

Who is favoured, and by how much?

The 90% interval runs from -27.7 to +2.5 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.

What is this built on?

A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.

Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.

Why does the model say this?

Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 House lean: 2.3 pts toward the Republican; experience gap (-4 levels, D minus R): 1.7 pts toward the Republican; 2024 presidential lean (R+10.0): 1.6 pts toward the Republican; asian share (2.0%): 1.6 pts toward the Republican; foreign born share (54.5%): 1.2 pts toward the Republican.

How sure is it, and of what?

Total sd 9.18 points, made of the seat's own volatility 92%, correlated polling error 8%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.

How was this number made?

Run 00a09d4b-7980-4ec5-ada0-077968a87242, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).