California Assembly
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
>99%chance of a Democratic majority
<1%chance of a Republican majority
41seats for a majority, of 80
80 of 80 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 62 seats after November (80% range 59–65) and Republicans 18 (15–21). In 4 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Dianna Margaret James (D), Heather Hadwick (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 2 | Forecast | Chris Rogers (D), Michael Greer (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Dom Belza (R), James "Jamie" Johansson (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 4 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Cecilia M. Aguiar-Curry (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 5 | Forecast | Neva Parker (D), Joe Patterson (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 6 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Maggy Krell (D), Jagtar Singh (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 7 | Forecast | Amy L. Slavensky (D), Josh Hoover (R) | 25% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 8 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David Jariustokaeutulelei Tangipa (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 9 | Forecast | Matthew Adams (D), Heath Flora (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 10 | Forecast | Stephanie Nguyen (D), Vinaya Singh (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 11 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Lori D Wilson (D), Jenny Leilani Callison (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 12 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Jackie Elward (D), Eric Lucan (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 13 | Forecast | Rhodesia Ransom (D), Tom Patti (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Buffy Wicks (D), Mark Rendon (Green) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 15 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Anamarie Avila Farias (D), Arthur Webb (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 16 | Forecast | Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (D), Joseph A. Rubay (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Forecast | Matt Haney (D), Manuel Noris-Barrera (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Mia Bonta (D), Andre Sandford (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 19 | Forecast | Catherine Stefani (D), Philip Louis Wing (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Forecast | Liz Ortega (D), Patricia Muga (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 21 | Forecast | Diane Papan (D), Jabra J Muhawieh (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Juan Alanis (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 23 | Forecast | Marc Berman (D), David G. Johnson (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 24 | Forecast | Alex Lee (D), Max Hsia (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 25 | Forecast | Ash Kalra (D), Himat Singh Bainiwal (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Forecast | Patrick Ahrens (D), Tim Gorsulowsky (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 27 | Forecast | Brian Pacheco (D), Mike Murphy (R) | 91% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 28 | Forecast | Gail Pellerin (D), Carol Pefley (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 29 | Forecast | Robert Rivas (D), Dennis P. Sanchez (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 30 | Forecast | Dawn Addis (D), Shannon Kessler (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 31 | Forecast | Annalisa Perea (D), Jim Polsgrove (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 32 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | David Couch (R), Assemblymember Stan Ellis (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 33 | Forecast | Hipolito Angel Cerros (D), Alexandra Macedo (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 34 | Forecast | Randall Putz (D), Charles Frederick Hughes (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 35 | Forecast | Andrae Gonzales (D), Saul Ayon (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 36 | Forecast | Ida S. Obeso-Martinez (D), Jeff Gonzalez (R) | 39% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 37 | Forecast | Gregg Hart (D), Sari Domingues (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 38 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Steve Bennett (D), Michael MacDonald (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 39 | Forecast | Juan Carrillo (D), Paul Andre Marsh (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 40 | Forecast | Pilar Schiavo (D), Rickey Tracy Hayes II (R) | 94% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 41 | Forecast | John Harabedian (D), Adam Christopher Vena (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 42 | Forecast | Deborah Klein Lopez (D), Ted Nordblum (R) | 92% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 43 | Forecast | Celeste Rodriguez (D), Ricardo Benitez (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 44 | Forecast | Nicholas "Nick" Schultz (D), Carolyn Daniels (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 45 | Forecast | James C. Ramos (D), Greg Abdouch (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 46 | Forecast | Jesse Gabriel (D), Tracey Schroeder (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 47 | Forecast | Leila Namvar (D), Greg Wallis (R) | 44% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 48 | Forecast | Blanca Rubio (D), Dan T. Tran (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 49 | Forecast | Mike Fong (D), Long David Liu (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 50 | Forecast | Robert Garcia (D), Victoria Viveros Mageno (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 51 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Colin D. Hernandez (D), Rick Chavez Zbur (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 52 | Forecast | Jessica Caloza (D), Andrea Lee Anderson (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 53 | Forecast | Michelle Rodriguez (D), Rafaela Romero (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 54 | Forecast | Mark Gonzalez (D), Alexandra Briseno (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 55 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Ashley M. Brown (D), Isaac G. Bryan (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 56 | Forecast | Lisa Calderon (D), Jessica Martinez (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 57 | Forecast | Sade Elhawary (D), Constance Jewel Menzies (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 58 | Forecast | Clarissa Cervantes (D), Leticia Castillo (R) | 52% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 59 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Phillip Chen (R), Victor Hernandez (Green) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 60 | Forecast | Corey A Jackson (D), Ed Delgado (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 61 | Forecast | Tina Simone McKinnor (D), Brian Lockwood (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 62 | Forecast | José Luis Solache (D), Paul Irving Jones (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 63 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Natasha Johnson (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 64 | Forecast | Blanca Pacheco (D), Raul Ortiz Jr. (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 65 | Forecast | Ayanna Davis (D), Lydia A. Gutiérrez (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 66 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Sara Deen (D), Paul Seo (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 67 | Forecast | Mark Pulido (D), Paulo Morales (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 68 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Jessie Lopez (D), David Penaloza (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 69 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Carolyn J. Essex (D), Josh Lowenthal (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 70 | Forecast | Paula Swift (D), Tri Ta (R) | 19% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 71 | Forecast | Jj Galvez (D), Kate Sanchez (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 72 | Forecast | Chris Kluwe (D), Gracey Van Der Mark (R) | 8% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 73 | Forecast | Cottie Petrie-Norris (D), Urson Russell (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 74 | Forecast | Sergio Farias (D), Laurie Davies (R) | 46% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 75 | Forecast | Gerald C. Boursiquot (D), Carl DeMaio (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 76 | Forecast | Darshana Patel (D), Carrie S. Espinoza Villanueva (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 77 | Forecast | Tasha Boerner (D), Trinity Hannaway (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 78 | Forecast | Chris Ward (D), Payton Galvez (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 79 | Forecast | LaShae Sharp-Collins (D), Andrew Lawson (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 80 | Forecast | David A. Alvarez (D), Alejandro Galicia (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |