Alabama Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
35 of 35 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 8 seats after November (80% range 8–10) and Republicans 27 (25–27). In 2 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tim Melson (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 2 | Forecast | John Roberts (R), Rudolph Valentino Drake (D) | 24% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | Forecast | Arthur Orr (R), John Dickey (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 4 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Garlan Gudger (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 5 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Matt Woods (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 6 | Forecast | Larry Stutts (R), Bobby Martin (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 7 | Forecast | Sam Givhan (R), Jared Sluss (D) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 8 | Forecast | Steve Livingston (R), Katie Kramer (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 9 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Wes Kitchens (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 10 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Andrew Jones (R), Jesse Battles (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 11 | Forecast | Lance Bell (R), Donald J. Mottern (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 12 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Keith Kelley (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 13 | Forecast | Randy Price (R), Jamie Forsyth (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Forecast | April Weaver (R), Mandie Ledkins (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 15 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Scott Ortis (R), Sen. Dan Roberts (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 16 | Forecast | J.t. "Jabo" Waggoner (R), Spencer Stone (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Shay Shelnutt (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 18 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Rodger M. Smitherman (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 19 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Merika Coleman (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 20 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Linda Coleman-Madison (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 21 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Gerald Allen (R), Jodie Woodrow Minor Jr. (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 22 | Forecast | Terry L. Waters (R), Ashley Sharpe (D) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 23 | Forecast | Thayer "Bear" Havard Spencer (R), Robert Stewart (D) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 24 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Bobby Singleton (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 25 | Forecast | Will Barfoot (R), Phadra Carson Foster (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kirk Hatcher (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 27 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jay Hovey (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 28 | Forecast | Brent Comer (R), Billy Beasley (D) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 29 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Donnie Chesteen (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 30 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Clyde Chambliss Jr. (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 31 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Josh Carnley (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 32 | Forecast | Chris Elliott (R), Janet Appleby (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 33 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Vivian Davis Figures (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 34 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Rusty Glover (R), Sen. Jack W. Williams (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 35 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David Sessions (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |