Oklahoma Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
25 of 48 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 9 seats after November (80% range 8–10) and Republicans 39 (38–40).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 2 | Forecast | Randy Cowling (D), Ally Seifried (R) | <1% | news guide + filing book |
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 4 | Forecast | Ellen Cuff (D), Tom Woods (R) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 5 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 6 | Forecast | David Bullard (R), Patrick Southerland (D) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 7 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 8 | Forecast | Bryan Logan (R), Nathan Brewer (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 9 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 10 | Forecast | Bill Coleman (R), Chayelynn Moore (D) | 4% | news guide + filing book |
| 11 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 12 | Forecast | Todd Gollihare (R), Erica Watkins (D) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 13 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 14 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jerry Alvord (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 15 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 16 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mary B. Boren (D) | news guide + filing book | |
| 17 | Forecast | Ed Bolt (D), Justin Freeland Wood (R) | 6% | news guide + filing book |
| 18 | Forecast | Tyler Herring (R), Meredith McGinnis (D) | 6% | news guide + filing book |
| 19 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 20 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chuck Hall (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 21 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 22 | Forecast | Kenny Kemper (D), Kristen Thompson (R) | 1% | news guide + filing book |
| 23 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 24 | Forecast | Melissa Elder (independent), Jonathan Morales (D), Jon Painter (R) | 7% | news guide + filing book |
| 25 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 26 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jessica Winegeart (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 27 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 28 | Forecast | Kevin M. Connor (D), Grant Green (R) | <1% | news guide + filing book |
| 29 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 30 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Julia Kirt (D) | news guide + filing book | |
| 31 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 32 | Forecast | Curtis W. Erwin (R), Booker T. Newton (D), Valentin Peña (independent) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 33 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 34 | Forecast | Aaron Forst (R), Amy Hossain (D) | 23% | news guide + filing book |
| 35 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 36 | Forecast | John Haste (R), Rick Larsen (D) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 37 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 38 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Rick Vernon (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 39 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 40 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Carri Hicks (D) | news guide + filing book | |
| 41 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 42 | Forecast | Chris Jones (D), Brenda Stanley (R) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 43 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 44 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael Brooks (D) | news guide + filing book | |
| 45 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 46 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mark Mann (D) | news guide + filing book | |
| 47 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 48 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Nikki Nice (D) | news guide + filing book |