Texas Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
16 of 31 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 11 seats after November (80% range 11–12) and Republicans 20 (19–20). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Laticia Ambroz (D), Bryan Hughes (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 2 | Forecast | Bob Hall (R), Keenen Colbert (D) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | Forecast | Trent Ashby (R), Bobby Tillman (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 4 | Forecast | Ron C. Angeletti (D), Brett W. Ligon (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 5 | Forecast | Charles Schwertner (R), Paul Thomasson (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 6 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 7 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 8 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 9 | Forecast | Leigh Wambsganss (R), Taylor Rehmet (D) | 10% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 10 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 11 | Forecast | Dennis Paul (R), Shannon Dicely (D) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 12 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 13 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Borris L. Miles (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 14 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 15 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 16 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 17 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 18 | Forecast | Lois W. Kolkhorst (R), Erica Gillum (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | Forecast | Roland Gutierrez (D), Marcus Cardenas (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 21 | Forecast | Julie Dahlberg (R), Judith Zaffirini (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Forecast | Amy Martinez-Salas (D), David Cook (R) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 23 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 24 | Forecast | Joe Paz Herrera (D), Pete Flores (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 25 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 26 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Julián Villarreal (Green), Jose Menendez (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 27 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 28 | Forecast | Charles Perry (R), Riley Rodriquez (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 29 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 30 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 31 | Forecast | John Betancourt (D), Kevin Sparks (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |