State legislatures
2026 forecasts for 88 chambers in 46 states. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
State senates
Shading and number: chance of a Democratic majority after November. Purple: neither party is likely to win a majority. Nebraska's single chamber is shown here.
State houses
Shading as for senates. Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia hold no legislative election in 2026.
Majorities that could change hands
Today Democrats hold a majority in 33 of the 87 chambers with seats up in 2026 and Republicans in 52; in 2 neither party has one (NCSL, updated October 6, 2026). In the forecast's simulated elections, Democrats win a majority they do not hold today in 4 chambers in the middle case (80% range 1 to 6), and Republicans in 1 (0 to 3). The chance that Democrats gain at least one chamber is 97%; that Republicans do, 73%.
| Chambers with | Today | After November, middle | 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic majority | 33 | 36 | 32 to 39 |
| Republican majority | 52 | 50 | 46 to 53 |
Likeliest to change hands: Wisconsin Senate (Democrats 58%), New Hampshire House (Democrats 44%), Michigan House (Democrats 36%), Arizona Senate (Democrats 35%), Pennsylvania House (Republicans 29%), Wisconsin Assembly (Democrats 28%).
No party holds a majority today in Maine House and Minnesota House, so a majority there for either party counts as a gain.
Every count comes from the same simulated elections, in which one national swing moves every state at once, so a good year for one party flips several chambers together; that is why the range is wide. In tests on past elections this model's ranges ran wider than they needed to, so the true range may be narrower. A majority of seats is not always control: coalitions and tie-breaking votes decide some chambers. Alaska's chambers are run by bipartisan coalitions; NCSL counts members, so they are listed with the party that has the most.
Trifectas
A trifecta is one party holding the governorship and a majority in every chamber. Today Democrats hold 13 and Republicans 20; 12 states are divided (NCSL). In the forecast's simulated elections, Democrats hold 15 after November in the middle case (80% range 13 to 17) and Republicans 17 (15 to 20).
| State | Today | Democratic trifecta | Republican trifecta | Divided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Republican | <1% | 19% | 81% |
| Ohio | Republican | <1% | 32% | 68% |
| Kansas | Divided | <1% | 67% | 33% |
| Maine | Divided | 64% | <1% | 35% |
| Minnesota | Divided | 61% | 2% | 38% |
| Georgia | Republican | <1% | 42% | 57% |
| New Hampshire | Republican | 1% | 50% | 49% |
| Nevada | Divided | 37% | 1% | 62% |
| Michigan | Divided | 31% | 3% | 66% |
| Wisconsin | Divided | 19% | 14% | 67% |
| Texas | Republican | <1% | 70% | 30% |
| Oregon | Democratic | 73% | <1% | 27% |
| Florida | Republican | <1% | 76% | 24% |
| Oklahoma | Republican | <1% | 85% | 15% |
States listed where today's status has at least a 15% chance of changing. Governors and legislatures are forecast by separate models; their simulated elections are paired so that a national polling miss moves both the same way, at the strength the 2014 to 2024 elections showed (rank correlation 0.8, set before any 2026 run; experiments/trifecta_joint_preregistration.md). Treated as independent, Democratic trifectas would be 13 to 17; with one identical national error, 13 to 17. Nebraska's legislature is nonpartisan. A governorship or chamber not on the 2026 ballot keeps today's party.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Every chamber with an election
Closest first. Seats: the middle of the forecast, with the range that holds 80% of outcomes. A chance below 100% for both parties together means a tie or independents holding the balance.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority | Democratic seats | Republican seats | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire House | 400 of 400 | 201 | 195 (154–248) | 205 (152–246) | 44% | 55% |
| Wisconsin Senate | 17 of 33 | 17 | 17 (15–18) | 16 (15–18) | 58% | 42% |
| Michigan Senate | 38 of 38 | 20 | 20 (17–23) | 18 (15–21) | 59% | 27% |
| Michigan House | 110 of 110 | 56 | 54 (48–61) | 56 (49–62) | 36% | 56% |
| Arizona Senate | 30 of 30 | 16 | 15 (13–17) | 15 (13–17) | 35% | 47% |
| Maine House | 151 of 151 | 76 | 79 (69–89) | 72 (62–82) | 67% | 33% |
| Minnesota House | 134 of 134 | 68 | 70 (63–78) | 64 (56–71) | 69% | 25% |
| Pennsylvania House | 203 of 203 | 102 | 103 (99–108) | 100 (95–104) | 71% | 29% |
| Wisconsin Assembly | 99 of 99 | 50 | 47 (41–52) | 52 (47–58) | 28% | 72% |
| Minnesota Senate | 67 of 67 | 34 | 36 (32–41) | 31 (26–35) | 77% | 23% |
| North Carolina House | 120 of 120 | 61 | 52 (47–61) | 68 (59–73) | 10% | 88% |
| New Hampshire Senate | 24 of 24 | 13 | 9 (8–13) | 15 (11–16) | 10% | 83% |
| Nevada Assembly | 42 of 42 | 22 | 27 (23–29) | 15 (13–19) | 94% | 4% |
| Maine Senate | 35 of 35 | 18 | 21 (18–23) | 14 (12–17) | 95% | 5% |
| Vermont Senate | 30 of 30 | 16 | 19 (16–21) | 11 (9–14) | 95% | 2% |
| North Carolina Senate | 50 of 50 | 26 | 20 (18–24) | 30 (26–32) | 4% | 93% |
| Pennsylvania Senate | 25 of 50 | 26 | 22 (21–24) | 28 (26–29) | 4% | 90% |
| Georgia House | 180 of 180 | 91 | 82 (78–86) | 98 (94–102) | 3% | 96% |
| Oregon Senate | 15 of 30 | 16 | 19 (17–20) | 11 (10–13) | 98% | 1% |
| Arizona House | 60 of 60 | 31 | 25 (22–28) | 35 (32–38) | 2% | 95% |
| Nevada Senate | 11 of 21 | 11 | 12 (11–12) | 9 (9–10) | 98% | 2% |
| Texas House | 150 of 150 | 76 | 63 (60–69) | 87 (81–90) | 2% | 98% |
| Florida House | 120 of 120 | 61 | 40 (34–50) | 80 (70–86) | 2% | 98% |
| Vermont House | 150 of 150 | 76 | 90 (82–99) | 53 (44–61) | 99% | <1% |
| Iowa House | 100 of 100 | 51 | 35 (30–42) | 65 (58–70) | 1% | 99% |
| Colorado Senate | 21 of 35 | 18 | 23 (21–24) | 12 (11–14) | 99% | 1% |
| New Mexico House | 70 of 70 | 36 | 45 (41–48) | 25 (22–29) | >99% | <1% |
| Oregon House | 60 of 60 | 31 | 37 (35–40) | 23 (20–25) | >99% | <1% |
| Ohio House | 99 of 99 | 50 | 36 (33–41) | 63 (58–66) | <1% | >99% |
| Colorado House | 65 of 65 | 33 | 45 (41–48) | 20 (17–24) | >99% | <1% |
| Georgia Senate | 56 of 56 | 29 | 23 (22–25) | 33 (31–34) | <1% | 99% |
| Montana House | 100 of 100 | 51 | 42 (38–45) | 58 (55–62) | <1% | >99% |
| Kansas House | 125 of 125 | 63 | 42 (37–49) | 83 (76–88) | <1% | >99% |
| Washington House | 98 of 98 | 50 | 61 (57–66) | 37 (32–41) | >99% | <1% |
| Connecticut Senate | 36 of 36 | 19 | 27 (24–30) | 9 (6–12) | >99% | <1% |
| South Carolina House | 124 of 124 | 63 | 39 (34–44) | 85 (80–90) | <1% | >99% |
| Washington Senate | 24 of 49 | 25 | 30 (28–31) | 19 (18–21) | >99% | <1% |
| Texas Senate | 16 of 31 | 16 | 11 (11–12) | 20 (19–20) | <1% | >99% |
| Indiana House | 100 of 100 | 51 | 31 (29–35) | 69 (65–71) | <1% | >99% |
| New York Senate | 63 of 63 | 32 | 42 (39–46) | 21 (17–24) | >99% | <1% |
| Alaska House | 40 of 40 | 21 | 15 (13–17) | 18 (15–20) | <1% | 4% |
| Missouri House | 163 of 163 | 82 | 54 (48–60) | 109 (103–115) | <1% | >99% |
| Missouri Senate | 17 of 34 | 18 | 10 (10–12) | 24 (22–24) | <1% | >99% |
| Alabama House | 105 of 105 | 53 | 29 (27–31) | 76 (74–78) | <1% | >99% |
| Alabama Senate | 35 of 35 | 18 | 8 (8–10) | 27 (25–27) | <1% | >99% |
| Alaska Senate | 10 of 20 | 11 | 8 (8–9) | 11 (10–11) | <1% | 89% |
| Arkansas House | 100 of 100 | 51 | 20 (18–24) | 80 (76–82) | <1% | >99% |
| Arkansas Senate | 18 of 35 | 18 | 7 (6–8) | 28 (27–29) | <1% | >99% |
| California Assembly | 80 of 80 | 41 | 62 (59–65) | 18 (15–21) | >99% | <1% |
| California Senate | 20 of 40 | 21 | 31 (30–33) | 9 (7–10) | >99% | <1% |
| Connecticut House | 151 of 151 | 76 | 108 (101–119) | 43 (32–50) | >99% | <1% |
| Delaware House | 41 of 41 | 21 | 28 (26–30) | 13 (11–15) | >99% | <1% |
| Delaware Senate | 11 of 21 | 11 | 15 (14–16) | 6 (5–7) | >99% | <1% |
| Florida Senate | 20 of 40 | 21 | 12 (11–14) | 27 (25–28) | <1% | >99% |
| Hawaii House | 51 of 51 | 26 | 43 (41–46) | 8 (5–10) | >99% | <1% |
| Hawaii Senate | 15 of 25 | 13 | 22 (21–22) | 3 (3–4) | >99% | <1% |
| Idaho House | 70 of 70 | 36 | 10 (8–12) | 60 (58–62) | <1% | >99% |
| Idaho Senate | 35 of 35 | 18 | 6 (5–8) | 29 (27–30) | <1% | >99% |
| Illinois House | 118 of 118 | 60 | 80 (77–83) | 38 (35–41) | >99% | <1% |
| Illinois Senate | 39 of 59 | 30 | 41 (39–44) | 18 (15–20) | >99% | <1% |
| Indiana Senate | 25 of 50 | 26 | 10 (9–13) | 40 (37–41) | <1% | >99% |
| Iowa Senate | 25 of 50 | 26 | 16 (15–18) | 34 (32–35) | <1% | >99% |
| Kentucky House | 100 of 100 | 51 | 21 (18–24) | 79 (76–82) | <1% | >99% |
| Kentucky Senate | 19 of 38 | 20 | 6 (6–7) | 32 (31–32) | <1% | >99% |
| Maryland House | 141 of 141 | 71 | 103 (100–108) | 38 (33–41) | >99% | <1% |
| Maryland Senate | 47 of 47 | 24 | 34 (33–35) | 13 (12–14) | >99% | <1% |
| Massachusetts House | 160 of 160 | 81 | 134 (131–137) | 25 (22–28) | >99% | <1% |
| Massachusetts Senate | 40 of 40 | 21 | 35 (34–35) | 5 (5–6) | >99% | <1% |
| Montana Senate | 25 of 50 | 26 | 18 (17–20) | 32 (30–33) | <1% | >99% |
| Nebraska Legislature | 25 of 49 | 25 | 16 (16–17) | 31 (30–32) | <1% | >99% |
| New York Assembly | 150 of 150 | 76 | 106 (100–110) | 44 (40–50) | >99% | <1% |
| North Dakota House | 48 of 94 | 48 | 12 (10–15) | 82 (79–84) | <1% | >99% |
| North Dakota Senate | 24 of 47 | 24 | 5 (5–7) | 42 (40–42) | <1% | >99% |
| Ohio Senate | 17 of 33 | 17 | 10 (9–12) | 23 (21–24) | <1% | >99% |
| Oklahoma House | 101 of 101 | 51 | 22 (20–25) | 79 (76–81) | <1% | >99% |
| Oklahoma Senate | 25 of 48 | 25 | 9 (8–10) | 39 (38–40) | <1% | >99% |
| Rhode Island House | 75 of 75 | 38 | 65 (64–67) | 10 (8–11) | >99% | <1% |
| Rhode Island Senate | 38 of 38 | 20 | 35 (35–36) | 3 (2–3) | >99% | <1% |
| South Dakota House | 70 of 70 | 36 | 11 (10–13) | 57 (55–58) | <1% | >99% |
| South Dakota Senate | 35 of 35 | 18 | 3 (1–5) | 32 (30–34) | <1% | >99% |
| Tennessee House | 99 of 99 | 50 | 23 (22–25) | 75 (73–76) | <1% | >99% |
| Tennessee Senate | 17 of 33 | 17 | 6 (6–7) | 27 (26–27) | <1% | >99% |
| Utah House | 75 of 75 | 38 | 15 (13–18) | 60 (57–62) | <1% | >99% |
| Utah Senate | 15 of 29 | 15 | 6 (6–7) | 23 (22–23) | <1% | >99% |
| West Virginia House | 100 of 100 | 51 | 12 (10–16) | 88 (84–90) | <1% | >99% |
| West Virginia Senate | 17 of 34 | 18 | 3 (1–4) | 31 (30–33) | <1% | >99% |
| Wyoming House | 62 of 62 | 32 | 7 (5–9) | 55 (53–57) | <1% | >99% |
| Wyoming Senate | 17 of 31 | 16 | 2 (2–3) | 29 (28–29) | <1% | >99% |
No seats up in 2026: Kansas Senate, New Mexico Senate, South Carolina Senate.
How this works
Each district starts from its own last result, moved by the national House environment and by whether an incumbent is running. Districts that elect several members, districts redrawn since their last election, and Nebraska and Alaska races with an independent contender each have their own method, tested on past elections. Candidates come from official state lists where readable, otherwise from news and civic guides, an election-information site, or Wikipedia; every district's page says which. Methods, tests and code.