Florida · Senate
election 2026-11-03 · forecast as of 2026-10-01 · margins and probabilities are for Angie Nixon
Who is running?
Angie Nixon (Democratic), Ashley Moody (Republican). The margin below is Angie Nixon minus the other candidate in the main contest; the rest are on the ballot and not in it.
The race, in brief
This is a special election on November 3, 2026, to complete the term Marco Rubio won in 2022; he resigned in 2025 to become secretary of state, and the winner serves until a regular election in 2028. The text says Democrats have not won a Senate race in Florida since 2012 and that the state has shifted increasingly Republican.
The Republican is Ashley Moody, Florida's attorney general from 2019 to 2025, appointed to the seat by Ron DeSantis; she won her primary with 79.6%. The Democrat is state representative Angie Nixon, a progressive and a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, who beat Alex Vindman 56.1% to 43.9% in what the text calls a major upset, although Vindman had $16.3 million to her $975,000. Independent Neil J. Gillespie is also declared. As of July 29, 2026 Moody had raised $11,259,074 with $8,482,821 on hand; Nixon $974,845 with $264,978 on hand.
All ten raters listed call the race R: Cook, Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News, Inside Elections, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin and Split Ticket, all in September 2026. The aggregate polling average is Moody 48.6%, Nixon 42.4%. Recent polls include Change Research (D), September 25–27, Moody 48% to Nixon 47%; Stetson University, September 14–21, Moody 51% to 40%; and St. Pete Polls, September 15–17, tied at 45%.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
Ashley Moody, the attorney general of Florida, was named by state governor Ron DeSantis to fill Rubio's vacant Senate seat
Republican appointee Ashley Moody and Democratic state representative Angie Nixon are the nominees for their respective parties.
Angie Nixon, state representative from the 13th district (2020–present)
Ashley Moody, incumbent U.S. senator (2025–present)
Angie Nixon, a progressive Democrat and a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, won the nomination over Alex Vindman
Ashley Moody, Florida attorney general (2019–2025)
Nixon won the nomination with 56.1% of the vote in a major upset.
The Economist R September 29, 2026
|Angie Nixon (D) $974,845 $709,866 $264,978
The winner will complete the term won in 2022 by Marco Rubio, who resigned in 2025 to become secretary of state.
despite Vindman having amassed $16.3 million in campaign funding compared to Nixon's $975,000
Average |48.6% 42.4% 9.0% |Moody +6.2%
Change Research (D) September 25–27, 2026 1,063 (LV)
Stetson University September 14–21, 2026 830 (LV)
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 20–21, 2026 600 (LV)
St. Pete PollsPoll sponsored by Florida Politics September 15–17, 2026 913 (LV)
This will be the first U.S. Senate election in Florida where both major party candidates are women.
=== Independents === ==== Declared ==== * Neil J. Gillespie
Not in the source: The forecast rows in facts carry no basis field, so the dossier cannot say what the model's numbers stand on (for example, whether the statewide polls in the text are in it).; The ratings table gives only the party letter or 'Tossup'/'Flip'; no Lean/Likely/Safe strength is given.; facts.candidates marks Ashley Moody as incumbent: false, but the text describes her as the appointed incumbent senator.; The race is labelled FL-SEN in facts but the text is the 2026 special election for Rubio's unexpired term.; The text gives no presidential or previous Senate vote shares for Florida.; Endorsement sections are empty in the text.
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as fbb7b0d04776; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
Rick Scott (Republican), in this chamber since 2019, 2 terms, class 1 (term ends 2031). Committees: Senate Committee on Armed Services; Senate Committee on Foreign Relations; Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs; Senate Committee on the Budget; Senate Special Committee on Aging (Chairman).
Ashley Moody (Republican), in this chamber since 2025, 1 term, class 3 (term ends 2026). Committees: Senate Committee on Armed Services; Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions; Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs; Senate Committee on the Judiciary; Joint Economic Committee; Senate Special Committee on Aging.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vindman, Alexander (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $16,273,862 | $7,253,859 | 1% | 0% | $4,332 | $0 |
| Weil, Joshua Joseph (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $15,933,478 | $0 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Moody, Ashley (REP) incumbent | $11,270,805 | $8,491,175 | 18% | 0% | $596,467 | $36,025 |
| Nixon, Angela (DEM) challenger | $974,845 | $264,978 | 0% | 0% | $27,036 | $0 |
| Mujica, Hector Daniel (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $856,667 | $10,756 | 0% | 19% | $0 | $0 |
| Jenkins, Jennifer (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $725,731 | $108,111 | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Grayson, Alan Mark (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $388,153 | $128,299 | 3% | 82% | $0 | $0 |
| Lang, Jake (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $32,876 | $1,501 | 0% | 82% | $0 | $0 |
| Gleason, Christopher (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $26,001 | $788 | 0% | 13% | $0 | $0 |
| Lyles, Tamika Ms (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $23,287 | $0 | 0% | 90% | $0 | $0 |
| Rivera, Ernest Ernie John Rev. Dr. (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $15,973 | $970 | 0% | 67% | $0 | $0 |
| Gilespie, Neil Joseph (NPA) challenger · not on our roster | $12,297 | $837 | 0% | 22% | $0 | $0 |
| Atkins, Joey Mendoza (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $9,473 | $732 | 0% | 21% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through July 29, 2026; $663,860 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+1.2 | R+3.4 | R+13.2 |
A shift of 12.0 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns summed; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
The state in numbers
| Measure | State | Average state | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+, 2023 | 33.2% | 34.0% | -0.8 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 51.4% | 66.3% | -14.9 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 14.8% | 10.1% | +4.7 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino, 2023 | 26.8% | 12.9% | +13.9 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 2.8% | 4.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Foreign-born, 2023 | 21.4% | 9.6% | +11.8 pts |
| Median age, 2023 | 42.6 | 39.1 | +3.52 |
| Median household income, 2023 | $71,711 | $77,633 | $-5,922 |
| Median home value, 2023 | $325,000 | $314,132 | $+10,868 |
| Owner-occupied homes, 2023 | 67.3% | 67.4% | -0.0 pts |
| Unemployment (ACS), 2023 | 4.8% | 4.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Federal government workers, 2023 | 2.1% | 3.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Work from home, 2023 | 13.9% | 12.3% | +1.7 pts |
| Households on SNAP, 2023 | 12.6% | 11.1% | +1.5 pts |
| Households with Social Security income, 2023 | 36.7% | 32.1% | +4.6 pts |
| Households with public assistance income, 2023 | 2.4% | 2.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year, 2023 | 3.0% | 2.9% | +0.1 pts |
| Gini index, 2023 | 0.48 | 0.47 | +0.02 |
| Unemployment, latest month (BLS), 2026-07 | 4.6% | 4.0% | +0.6 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months, 2026-07 | +0.5 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.6 pts |
| Change since the last election (24 months), 2026-07 | +0.9 pts | -0.1 pts | +1.0 pts |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $73,006 | $70,662 | $+2,344 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 36.0% | 32.4% | +3.7 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 19.3% | 19.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 6.3% | 6.1% | +0.3 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 5.4% | 4.4% | +1.0 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 2.3% | 3.8% | -1.5 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.4% | 0.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.4% | 0.3% | +0.1 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 1.0% | 0.9% | +0.1 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.1% | 1.5% | -0.5 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 0.7% | 1.2% | -0.4 pts |
ACS 5-year state tables; BLS county unemployment and BEA county income, transfers and jobs summed to the state. Every figure is a named column of a named public-domain table, archived before it was read.
Who is ahead, and by how much?
Two numbers because they answer two questions. The nowcast is where opinion stands; the election-day forecast is where it is likely to end up.
How likely is each to win?
Monte Carlo error is ±0.1 points. A change smaller than that is simulation noise rather than news, and this page will not describe it as movement.
How wide is the range?
Nowcast: 90% of simulations fall between -17.1 and +1.7 points. Election day: -18.4 to +4.1. The election-day interval is 3.8 points wider, which is the 33 days of movement still to come.
What is the uncertainty made of?
Total sd 7.21 points, made of race-specific polling error 48%, drift to election day 31%, correlated polling error 11%, latent opinion 10%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
What evidence is this built on?
10 polls, most recent 2026-09-27. 40% verified against a primary source.
What changed since the last run?
Shaded band is the 90% interval, line is the central estimate, positive is Angie Nixon ahead of Ashley Moody. Over 18 stored forecasts the central estimate moved -0.8 points. There were 7 specification changes (marked on the axis) and 1 new poll arrived over this window — so the movement mixes new evidence with changes to the model.
Since 2026-10-01: margin +0.00 points, win probability +0.0 points, on +0 polls. Of that, +0.00 points came from +0 poll(s), +0.00 from the shorter horizon, and -0.00 from the model specification.
How has this model done before?
Measured on 230 forecasts across 230 races in cycles 2016,2018,2020,2022,2024: mean absolute error 4.56 points, Brier score 0.0543. The nominal 90% interval contained the result 94% of the time, the 80% interval 84%, and the 50% interval 47%. Read that with care: a national polling miss moves every race in a cycle at once, so the sample size for a question about the intervals is 5 cycle(s), not 230 forecasts. Per cycle -- bias +1.644 pts; 2016: n=43 bias=+4.68 cov90=0.860; 2018: n=63 bias=-0.52 cov90=1.000; 2020: n=35 bias=+5.44 cov90=0.886; 2022: n=54 bias=-0.60 cov90=0.944; 2024: n=35 bias=+1.48 cov90=1.000.
Where did every number come from?
Nowcast run 07982d26-e460-4845-9214-cc1d927b62a8 and election-day run bd20685c-f1e4-4fdb-8bb2-f2b981761e2f, model single_race_latent/0.8.1 at commit bdf7e83107c17a2399efe61a44ef1bbee48f9284, seeds 20260924 and 20260924.