AK-AL: no forecast published
The House model forecasts a district only when it can identify the one contest the seat will be decided in.
Why not here: a ranked-choice contest whose main challenger is an independent: in the official 18 August top-four primary Nick Begich (R) took 44.6%, Bill Hill (independent) 32.5% and Eric Hafner (D) 3.8%, and Jim McDermott (Libertarian) advanced after withdrawals. A Democrat-versus-Republican forecast would name the wrong challenger.
Sources: https://www.elections.alaska.gov/enr26/results/ElectionSummaryReportRPT.pdf; https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-09-01/in-alaskas-u-s-house-race-a-libertarian-and-a-federal-inmate-advance-after-late-withdrawals
In the House total: the seat is still counted. The House model's own estimate, which does not depend on naming the candidates, gives the non-Republican side a 32% chance, an expected margin of R+4. What is held back is a race page that names who that is.
Candidates on record: Bill Hill, Eric Hafner, Jim McDermott, Nick Begich III.