Kentucky Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
19 of 38 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 6 seats after November (80% range 6–7) and Republicans 32 (31–32). In 2 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 2 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Danny Carroll (R) | wikipedia | |
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 4 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Robert M. "Robby" Mills (R), Janyna Lynn Russelburg (independent) | wikipedia | |
| 5 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 6 | Forecast | Lindsey Tichenor (R), Christian Furman (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 7 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 8 | Forecast | Gary M. Boswell (R), Vicki Quisenberry (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 9 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 10 | Forecast | Matthew Deneen (R), Christopher Gatrost (D) | 4% | wikipedia |
| 11 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 12 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Amanda Mays Bledsoe (R) | wikipedia | |
| 13 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 14 | Forecast | Ben Mudd (R), Carrie Gribbins Truitt (D) | 6% | wikipedia |
| 15 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 16 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Max Wise (R) | wikipedia | |
| 17 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 18 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Robin L. Webb (R) | wikipedia | |
| 19 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 20 | Forecast | Gex "jay" Williams (R), Stella R. Pollard (D) | 9% | wikipedia |
| 21 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 22 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Donald R. Douglas (R), Michael Wieland French (Other) | wikipedia | |
| 23 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 24 | Forecast | Shelley "Funke" Frommeyer (R), Joshua Baker (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 25 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 26 | Forecast | Karen A. Berg (D), Everett C. Corley (R) | >99% | wikipedia |
| 27 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 28 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Greg Elkins (R) | wikipedia | |
| 29 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 30 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brandon D. Smith (R) | wikipedia | |
| 31 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 32 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mike Wilson (R) | wikipedia | |
| 33 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 34 | Forecast | Jared K. Carpenter (R), Jessica D. McIntosh (D) | 3% | wikipedia |
| 35 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 36 | Forecast | Julie Raque Adams (R), Sarah Cole McIntosh (D) | 4% | wikipedia |
| 37 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 38 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mike Nemes (R) | wikipedia |