Kentucky House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
<1%chance of a Democratic majority
>99%chance of a Republican majority
51seats for a majority, of 100
100 of 100 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 21 seats after November (80% range 18–24) and Republicans 79 (76–82). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Steven Jack Rudy (R) | wikipedia | |
| 2 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kim Holloway (R) | wikipedia | |
| 3 | Forecast | Randy Bridges (R), Michael McVicker (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 4 | Decided: only a Republican is running | D. Wade Williams (R) | wikipedia | |
| 5 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mary Beth Imes (R) | wikipedia | |
| 6 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chris Freeland (R) | wikipedia | |
| 7 | Forecast | Suzanne Miles (R), Laurie C. Campbell (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 8 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Walker Wood Thomas (R) | wikipedia | |
| 9 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Myron B. Dossett (R) | wikipedia | |
| 10 | Forecast | Josh Calloway (R), John B. Whipple (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 11 | Forecast | J. T. Payne (R), Janelle Rowena Glass (D) | 6% | wikipedia |
| 12 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jim Gooch Jr. (R) | wikipedia | |
| 13 | Forecast | Dj Johnson (R), Rhondalyn Randolph (D) | 6% | wikipedia |
| 14 | Forecast | Wes Pate (R), Donna Haynes (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 15 | Forecast | Rebecca Raymer (R), Chris Waddell (D) | 3% | wikipedia |
| 16 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jason Petrie (R) | wikipedia | |
| 17 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Robert B. Duvall (R) | wikipedia | |
| 18 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Samara Heavrin (R) | wikipedia | |
| 19 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Michael Lee Meredith (R) | wikipedia | |
| 20 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kevin Jackson (R) | wikipedia | |
| 21 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Amy Neighbors (R) | wikipedia | |
| 22 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Shawn McPherson (R) | wikipedia | |
| 23 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Steve Riley (R) | wikipedia | |
| 24 | Forecast | Ryan Dale Bivens (R), Johnny Pennington (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 25 | Forecast | Steve Bratcher (R), Cherlyn Evette Smith (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 26 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Peyton Griffee (R) | wikipedia | |
| 27 | Forecast | Joseph Redmon (R), Susan C. Doman (D) | 2% | wikipedia |
| 28 | Forecast | Jared A. Bauman (R), Almaria Baker (D) | 3% | wikipedia |
| 29 | Forecast | Chris Lewis (R), Cassie Blausey (D) | 6% | wikipedia |
| 30 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mitra Subedi (D) | wikipedia | |
| 31 | Forecast | Susan Tyler Witten (R), Tim Hall (D) | 41% | wikipedia |
| 32 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tina Bojanowski (D) | wikipedia | |
| 33 | Forecast | Jason Michael Nemes (R), Jennifer Hardin (D) | 7% | wikipedia |
| 34 | Forecast | Sarah Stalker (D), Victoria Ligon (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 35 | Forecast | Lisa Willner (D), Bret Shultz (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 36 | Forecast | John F. Hodgson (R), William "Woody" Zorn (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 37 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Emily Myers Callaway (R) | wikipedia | |
| 38 | Forecast | Rachel Roarx (D), Carrie Sanders McKeehan (R) | 84% | wikipedia |
| 39 | Forecast | Matt Lockett (R), Ryan Stanford (D) | 3% | wikipedia |
| 40 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Nima Kulkarni (D) | wikipedia | |
| 41 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mary Lou Marzian (D) | wikipedia | |
| 42 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Joshua Watkins (D) | wikipedia | |
| 43 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Robert LeVertis Bell (D) | wikipedia | |
| 44 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kenya Wade (D) | wikipedia | |
| 45 | Forecast | Adam Moore (D), Killian Timoney (R) | 82% | wikipedia |
| 46 | Forecast | Al Gentry (D), Brad Woolridge (R) | 98% | wikipedia |
| 47 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Felicia Rabourn (R) | wikipedia | |
| 48 | Forecast | Ken Fleming (R), Suhas Kulkarni (D) | 20% | wikipedia |
| 49 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Thomas Huff (R) | wikipedia | |
| 50 | Forecast | Candy Massaroni (R), J. D. Netherton (D) | 4% | wikipedia |
| 51 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Michael "Sarge" Pollock (R) | wikipedia | |
| 52 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kevin G. Jones (R) | wikipedia | |
| 53 | Decided: only a Republican is running | James Allen Tipton (R) | wikipedia | |
| 54 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Daniel B. Elliott (R) | wikipedia | |
| 55 | Forecast | Kim King (R), Katrina A. Sexton (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 56 | Forecast | Daniel A. Fister (R), David Graves (D) | 6% | wikipedia |
| 57 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Erika Hancock (D) | wikipedia | |
| 58 | Forecast | Jennifer Henson Decker (R), Andrew Thomas Monarch (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 59 | Forecast | David W. Osborne (R), Stephanie White (D) | 7% | wikipedia |
| 60 | Forecast | Marianne Proctor (R), Tracey Reid (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 61 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Savannah Maddox (R) | wikipedia | |
| 62 | Forecast | Tony Hampton (R), Randy Jackson Simpkins (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 63 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cole Cuzick (R) | wikipedia | |
| 64 | Forecast | Kimberly Poore Moser (R), William Nick Whalen (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 65 | Forecast | Stephanie A. Dietz (R), Aaron John Currin (D) | 9% | wikipedia |
| 66 | Forecast | T. J. Roberts (R), Jason Ellis (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 67 | Forecast | Matthew Lehman (D), Terry Hatton (R) | 81% | wikipedia |
| 68 | Forecast | Mike Clines (R), Amy Amin (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 69 | Forecast | Steven Doan (R), Wilanne Stangel (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 70 | Forecast | Mike Fisher (R), Charlotte Harris (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 71 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Josh Bray (R) | wikipedia | |
| 72 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Matthew R. Koch (R) | wikipedia | |
| 73 | Forecast | Daniel Konstantopoulos (R), Chelsea Kirk (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 74 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David F. Charles (R) | wikipedia | |
| 75 | Forecast | Lindsey Burke (D), Jeff Forsyth (R), Geoffrey M. "Geoff" Young (Other) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 76 | Forecast | Anne Gay Donworth (D), Avram Phoenix Hicks (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 77 | Forecast | George A. Brown Jr. (D), Jason Griffith (R) | >99% | wikipedia |
| 78 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mark Hart (R) | wikipedia | |
| 79 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Chad R. Aull (D) | wikipedia | |
| 80 | Forecast | David Meade (R), Mary Russell (D) | 3% | wikipedia |
| 81 | Forecast | Deanna Frazier Gordon (R), Anthony Looney (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 82 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Nick Wilson (R) | wikipedia | |
| 83 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Joshua Branscum (R) | wikipedia | |
| 84 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chris Fugate (R) | wikipedia | |
| 85 | Decided: only a Republican is running | R. Shane Baker (R) | wikipedia | |
| 86 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tom O'Dell Smith (R) | wikipedia | |
| 87 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Adam Bowling (R) | wikipedia | |
| 88 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Vanessa Grossl (R), L. Scott Miller (independent) | wikipedia | |
| 89 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Timmy Truett (R) | wikipedia | |
| 90 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Derek Lewis (R) | wikipedia | |
| 91 | Forecast | Darrell Billings (R), David Johnson (D) | 6% | wikipedia |
| 92 | Decided: only a Republican is running | John Blanton (R) | wikipedia | |
| 93 | Forecast | Adrielle Camuel (D), Hannah Beth Rivera (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 94 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mitchum Addison Whitaker (R) | wikipedia | |
| 95 | Forecast | Johnny Ray Turner (D), Tanner Hesterberg (R) | 95% | wikipedia |
| 96 | Forecast | Patrick Flannery (R), Pamela Lewis (D) | 3% | wikipedia |
| 97 | Forecast | Bobby W. McCool (R), Rebekah D. Skaggs (D) | 2% | wikipedia |
| 98 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Aaron Thompson (R) | wikipedia | |
| 99 | Forecast | Richard Lee White (R), Iva Markicevic Daley (D) | 4% | wikipedia |
| 100 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Scott Sharp (R) | wikipedia |