UT-1 · House

The district, in brief

Utah's 1st is a new district for 2026, based in the majority of Salt Lake County, including Salt Lake City, West Valley, Millcreek, Cottonwood Heights and Murray, the airport and the University of Utah. The text records that Kamala Harris won it by a 24-point margin in 2024. There is no incumbent; Blake Moore, who held the old 1st, withdrew to run in the 2nd district.

The Republican nominee is Riley Owen, a former White House policy analyst, who took 71.25% at the state convention. The Democratic nominee is Ben McAdams, former U.S. representative from the 4th district (2019–2021), who won the primary with 51.9% over state senator Nate Blouin (27.5%), Liban Mohamed (16.7%) and Michael Farrell (3.9%), after Mohamed had beaten him at the convention 51.12% to 48.88% in the fifth round. Mayor Erin Mendenhall endorsed McAdams; a Libertarian, Jesse West, filed paperwork. As of June 3, 2026 McAdams had raised $1,916,636 with $686,253 on hand; Owen $98,334 with $13,676 on hand.

Every rater listed calls the seat a Flip: Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball (November 11, 2025) and Silver Bulletin (August 20, 2026). Two Democratic primary polls are recorded, both with McAdams ahead: Upswing Research for Blouin's campaign (May 27–29, 2026) had McAdams 37%, Blouin 27%; Data for Progress (March 23–26, 2026) had McAdams 36%, Blouin 23%. No general-election poll is recorded.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: No general-election poll is recorded; the model's basis says no district polls, and the two polls in the text are Democratic primary polls.; No result is given for the Republican primary beyond the convention vote; the text does not say whether a primary ballot was held.; The text gives no background for Riley Owen beyond 'former White House policy analyst' and no fundraising for him after June 3, 2026.; The ratings say only 'Flip' with no Lean/Likely/Safe grade.; The model's presidential baseline is on the 2024 map, not the new lines; the text's 24-point Harris margin is the only figure for the new district.

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as a3610c25630f; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

Who holds the seat now

Blake D. Moore (Republican), in this chamber since 2021, 3 terms. Committees: House Committee on Ways and Means; House Committee on the Budget.

From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 1.5 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

Who are the voters?

Of about 524,828 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 62.8% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 63.2% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 0.8 points toward Democrats. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.

Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.

The money

FEC bulk candidate summaries through June 30, 2026; $2,715,099 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.

The district in numbers

ACS 5-year 2023, assembled from census tracts by the 2020 population of their blocks inside the current lines, because the Bureau has not tabulated these lines; medians are population-weighted means of tract medians. Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.

Who is favoured, and by how much?

The 90% interval runs from +19.5 to +49.4 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.

What is this built on?

A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.

Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.

Why does the model say this?

Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 presidential lean (D+26.4): 22.1 pts toward the Democrat; 2024 House lean: 10.6 pts toward the Democrat; experience gap (+3 levels, D minus R): 8.0 pts toward the Democrat; PAC money balance: 7.8 pts toward the Democrat; 2022 House lean: 1.1 pts toward the Democrat.

How sure is it, and of what?

Total sd 9.16 points, made of the seat's own volatility 92%, correlated polling error 8%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.

How was this number made?

Run 00a09d4b-7980-4ec5-ada0-077968a87242, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).