NY-24 · House
election-day forecast · ground-up model · as of 2026-10-02
The district, in brief
New York's 24th is based along the Lake Ontario coast (minus Rochester) and the upper Finger Lakes, including Watertown, Oswego, Seneca Falls and Batavia. The lines are the map first used in 2024 and the district was not redrawn for this cycle. The facts record a 2024 presidential two-party margin of -23.2 for the Democrat on the current lines.
The incumbent is Republican Claudia Tenney, re-elected with 65.7% of the vote in 2024, who runs on the Republican and Conservative lines and is endorsed by Maggie's List. The Democratic nominee is Alissa Ellman, a former program support assistant at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, who won the Democratic primary with 61.6% over Diana Kastenbaum (38.2%) after the 2022 nominee Steven Holden withdrew; she also carries the Working Families line and is endorsed by the Forward Party. Three independents withdrew. As of June 30, 2026 Tenney had raised $2,763,139 with $1,373,087 on hand; Ellman had raised $193,088 with $12,850 on hand.
Every rater listed calls the seat R: Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report (February 6, 2025), Inside Elections (March 7, 2025) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (September 18, 2025). The text records no district polls.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
The incumbent is Republican Claudia Tenney, who was re-elected with 65.7% of the vote in 2024.
The incumbent is Republican Claudia Tenney
Alissa Ellman, former program support assistant at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs
Claudia Tenney, incumbent U.S. representative
Alissa Ellman, former program support assistant at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs
Claudia Tenney, incumbent U.S. representative
who was re-elected with 65.7% of the vote in 2024
candidate: Alissa Ellman party: Democratic Party (United States) votes: 10,164 percentage: 61.6
Decision Desk HQ R July 14, 2026 The Cook Political Report R February 6, 2025
Claudia Tenney (R) $2,763,139 $1,745,055 $1,373,087
Conservative Party of New York State ;Organizations *Maggie's List
Political parties *Forward Party *New York Working Families Party
Ken Estes, farmer *Tony Macula *Todd Sloan, attorney
Not in the source: The text gives no presidential results for the district; the only presidential number is the facts' 2024 two-party baseline.; Ratings are given only as R, with no Lean/Likely/Safe gradation.; No district polls appear in the text, and the model's basis says no district polls.; No Republican primary contest is described; Tenney is simply listed as nominee.
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as cfb3d3b04173; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
Claudia Tenney (Republican), in this chamber since 2017, 4 terms. Committees: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology; House Committee on Ways and Means; House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+24.2 | R+18.6 | R+13.0 |
A shift of 11.2 points toward the Democrats from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
Who are the voters?
| Group (adults 25+) | Share of adults | Turnout 2020 / midterm | Share of a midterm electorate | Est. Democratic share, 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White, no degree | 68% | 57% / 43% | 62% | 19% |
| White, degree | 23% | 77% / 67% | 33% | 76% |
| Black | 2% | 57% / 36% | 2% | 93% |
| Hispanic | 3% | 38% / 26% | 1% | 74% |
| Asian | 1% | 34% / 22% | 0% | 71% |
| Other / multiracial | 2% | 57% / 44% | 2% | 66% |
Of about 542,778 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 39.7% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 40.9% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 2.5 points toward Democrats. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.
Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenney, Claudia (REP) incumbent | $2,763,139 | $1,373,087 | 44% | 0% | $0 | $1,952 |
| Sloan, Todd (IND) challenger · not on our roster | $205,393 | $701 | 0% | 100% | $0 | $0 |
| Ellman, Alissa (DEM) challenger | $193,088 | $12,850 | 4% | 14% | $0 | $0 |
| Kastenbaum, Diana Kisiel (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $77,041 | $423 | 0% | 51% | $0 | $0 |
| Holden, Steven Wesley Sr. (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $66,496 | $19,631 | 0% | 66% | $0 | $0 |
| Estes, Kenneth (IND) challenger · not on our roster | $40 | $80 | 0% | 100% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through June 30, 2026; $1,952 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.
The district in numbers
| Measure | District | Nation | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+ | 26.1% | 34.9% | -8.8 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic | 88.1% | 58.2% | +29.9 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic | 2.5% | 12.0% | -9.4 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino | 4.2% | 19.0% | -14.8 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic | 0.9% | 5.8% | -4.9 pts |
| Foreign-born | 2.9% | 13.9% | -11.0 pts |
| Median age | 42.1 | 39.2 | 2.9 |
| Median household income | $71,020 | $84,362 | $-13,342 |
| Median home value | $166,000 | $379,737 | $-213,737 |
| Owner-occupied homes | 73.3% | 65.1% | +8.3 pts |
| Unemployment, July 2026 (BLS county data) | 4.0% | 4.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months | +0.1 pts | — | — |
| Change since the last election (24 months) | +0.2 pts | — | — |
| Unemployment (ACS) | 4.7% | 5.2% | -0.5 pts |
| Federal government workers | 2.2% | 2.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Work from home | 8.2% | 13.5% | -5.2 pts |
| Households on SNAP | 12.7% | 11.8% | +1.0 pts |
| Households with Social Security income | 37.2% | 31.2% | +6.0 pts |
| Households with public assistance income | 3.3% | 2.7% | +0.6 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year | 1.2% | 2.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Gini index | 0.40 | 0.44 | -0.04 |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $57,603 | $73,248 | $-15,645 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 26.7% | 32.0% | -5.2 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 25.5% | 19.6% | +5.9 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 8.9% | 5.8% | +3.1 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 5.5% | 4.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 5.1% | 4.0% | +1.1 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.7% | 0.6% | +0.1 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 1.0% | 0.9% | +0.2 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.6% | 1.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 3.4% | 0.9% | +2.4 pts |
ACS 5-year 2023, the Census Bureau's own tabulation of this district (118th Congress lines). Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.
Who is favoured, and by how much?
The 90% interval runs from -33.2 to -5.5 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.
What is this built on?
A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.
Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.
Why does the model say this?
Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 presidential lean (R+21.7): 8.6 pts toward the Republican; 2024 House lean (R+28.6): 5.5 pts toward the Republican; experience gap (-4 levels, D minus R): 2.0 pts toward the Republican; asian share (0.9%): 0.9 pts toward the Republican; PAC money balance: 0.6 pts toward the Republican.
How sure is it, and of what?
Total sd 8.50 points, made of the seat's own volatility 89%, correlated polling error 11%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.
How was this number made?
Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).