North Dakota Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
24 of 47 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 5 seats after November (80% range 5–7) and Republicans 42 (40–42).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brad Bekkedahl (R) | wikipedia | |
| 2 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 3 | Forecast | Bob Paulson (R), Michael Thiesen (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 4 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 5 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jay Fisher (R) | wikipedia | |
| 6 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 7 | Forecast | Michelle Axtman (R), Kevin Horneman (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 8 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 9 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jayme Davis (D) | wikipedia | |
| 10 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 11 | Forecast | Tim Mathern (D), Christine O'Riley (R) | 97% | wikipedia |
| 12 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 13 | Forecast | Judy Lee (R), Landis Larson (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 14 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 15 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kristin Kenner (R) | wikipedia | |
| 16 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 17 | Forecast | Jonathan Sickler (R), Katie Benton (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 18 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 19 | Forecast | Janne Myrdal (R), Jeff Hermanson (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 20 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 21 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mary Schneider (D) | wikipedia | |
| 22 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 23 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Todd Beard (R) | wikipedia | |
| 24 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 25 | Forecast | Larry Luick (R), Bob Heitkamp (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 26 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 27 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kristin Roers (R) | wikipedia | |
| 28 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 29 | Forecast | Terry Wanzek (R), John Kelly (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 30 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 31 | Forecast | Donald Schaible (R), Kelly Spilman (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 32 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 33 | Forecast | Keith Boehm (R), Signe Snortland (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 34 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 35 | Forecast | Sean D. Cleary (R), Dale Pittman (D) | 2% | wikipedia |
| 36 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 37 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Dean Rummel (R) | wikipedia | |
| 38 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 39 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Greg Kessel (R) | wikipedia | |
| 40 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 41 | Forecast | Kyle Davison (R), Nyamal Dei (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 42 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 43 | Forecast | Jeff Barta (R), Mary K. Adams (D) | 26% | wikipedia |
| 44 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 45 | Forecast | Ronald Sorvaag (R), Dan Mitchell (D) | 7% | wikipedia |
| 46 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 47 | Forecast | Michael Dwyer (R), Bill Patrie (D) | 4% | wikipedia |