NJ-11 · House
election-day forecast · ground-up model · as of 2026-10-02
The district, in brief
New Jersey's 11th is described in the text as Morris County plus the outer suburbs of the New York metropolitan area, including Montclair and Morristown. The lines are the map first used in 2022 and are not redrawn for this cycle. The facts record a 2024 House two-party margin of 14.99 for the Democrat; no presidential baseline is on file.
The previous incumbent, Democrat Mikie Sherrill, was re-elected with 56.5% in 2024 and vacated the seat on November 20, 2025 after winning the 2025 governor's race. Democrat Analilia Mejia won the April 16, 2026 special election for the remainder of the term and is seeking a full term. She won the Democratic primary with 81.7% over Donald Cresitello (6.9%), Justin Strickland (6.1%) and Joseph Lewis (5.4%); several special-election rivals, among them former representative Tom Malinowski, declined to run again and endorsed her. The Republican nominee is Joe Hathaway, a Randolph Township Council member and former mayor who was the party's nominee in the special election; he was unopposed in his primary. Alan Bond (Hope for Tomorrow) is also on the ballot. As of May 13, 2026 Mejia had raised $1,539,748 with $134,395 on hand and Hathaway $624,231 with $5,349 on hand.
Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report (August 13, 2025), Inside Elections (March 7, 2025) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (April 10, 2025) all call the seat D; Silver Bulletin is listed (August 23, 2026) with no ranking shown. The text records no district polls.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
Analilia Mejia won the special election to fill the remainder of Sherrill's term, and has declared intention to seek a full term this November.
Analilia Mejia, incumbent U.S. representative (2026–present)
Analilia Mejia, incumbent U.S. representative (2026–present)
Joe Hathaway, Randolph Township Council member, former mayor, and nominee in the April special election
Analilia Mejia, incumbent U.S. representative (2026–present)
Joe Hathaway, Randolph Township Council member, former mayor, and nominee in the April special election
The incumbent was Democrat Mikie Sherrill, who was re-elected with 56.5% of the vote in 2024. The seat became vacant on November 20, 2025, after Sherrill won the 2025 election for governor of New Jersey.
candidate: Analilia Mejia (incumbent) votes: 52,908 percentage: 81.7 party: Democratic Party (United States) candidate: Donald Cresitello votes: 4,443 percentage: 6.9
Decision Desk HQ D July 14, 2026 The Cook Political Report D August 13, 2025
Analilia Mejia (D) $1,539,748 $1,405,353 $134,395
A special election was held on April 16, 2026, to fill the remainder of her term.
Tahesha Way, former lieutenant governor (2023–2026) and secretary of state of New Jersey (2018–2026) and candidate for this district in the April special election
* Alan Bond (Hope for Tomorrow), former money manager and candidate in the April special election
Not in the source: The text gives no result figures for the April 16, 2026 special election.; The facts list Mejia with incumbent: false, but the text calls her the incumbent U.S. representative (2026–present).; No presidential result on these lines is given in the text or the facts.; No district polls are recorded.; The general-election fundraising table repeats the May 13, 2026 figures; no June 30 report is given.; Silver Bulletin appears in the ratings table with no ranking shown, and no rating finer than 'D' is given.
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 40017e08a73c; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
Analilia Mejia (Democrat), in this chamber since 2026, 1 term. Committees: House Committee on Homeland Security; House Committee on Small Business.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | D+18.9 | D+21.7 | D+12.3 |
A shift of 6.6 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
Who are the voters?
| Group (adults 25+) | Share of adults | Turnout 2020 / midterm | Share of a midterm electorate | Est. Democratic share, 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White, no degree | 26% | 67% / 44% | 23% | 23% |
| White, degree | 40% | 91% / 68% | 56% | 67% |
| Black | 6% | 61% / 37% | 5% | 92% |
| Hispanic | 14% | 53% / 23% | 7% | 64% |
| Asian | 12% | 50% / 32% | 8% | 76% |
| Other / multiracial | 2% | 68% / 44% | 2% | 62% |
Of about 537,674 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 58.5% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 58.8% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 0.6 points toward Democrats. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.
Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mejia, Analilia (DEM) incumbent | $1,823,436 | $27,475 | 18% | 0% | $507,645 | $0 |
| Malinowski, Tom (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $1,522,901 | $20,086 | 4% | 0% | $734,274 | $2,516,245 |
| Gill, Brendan W (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $1,134,267 | $9,936 | 7% | 32% | $63,878 | $0 |
| Way, Tahesha (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $848,649 | $37,315 | 2% | 0% | $2,144,412 | $0 |
| Beecher, Zach (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $661,945 | $0 | 1% | 2% | $306,472 | $0 |
| Hathaway, Joe (REP) challenger | $657,711 | $5,036 | 6% | 0% | $183,000 | $0 |
| Bartlett, John (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $496,163 | $0 | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Grayzel, Jeff (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $484,777 | $0 | 0% | 25% | $0 | $0 |
| Croft, Cammie L (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $381,640 | $0 | 0% | 6% | $0 | $0 |
| Matrisciano, Vincent (UN) challenger · not on our roster | $120,625 | $48,129 | 0% | 99% | $0 | $0 |
| Chaaban, Marc (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $118,917 | $0 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Cresitello, Donald Mr. (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $115,555 | $0 | 0% | 100% | $0 | $0 |
| Cauvin, Jean-Louis Mr. (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $111,156 | $9,353 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Lewis, Joseph Mr. Ii (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $102,800 | $0 | 0% | 97% | $0 | $0 |
| Dafis, Dean (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $98,442 | $0 | 0% | 22% | $0 | $0 |
| Strickland, Justin (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $96,379 | $756 | 0% | 30% | $0 | $0 |
| Williams, Anna Lee (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $26,972 | $2,118 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Sherrill, Mikie (DEM) incumbent · not on our roster | $21,556 | $0 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Frelinghuysen, Rodney P. (REP) incumbent · not on our roster | $7 | $62,480 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through July 20, 2026; $6,455,926 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.
The district in numbers
| Measure | District | Nation | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+ | 58.1% | 34.9% | +23.2 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic | 61.6% | 58.2% | +3.3 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic | 5.5% | 12.0% | -6.4 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino | 17.0% | 19.0% | -2.0 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic | 11.6% | 5.8% | +5.8 pts |
| Foreign-born | 21.6% | 13.9% | +7.8 pts |
| Median age | 41.8 | 39.2 | 2.6 |
| Median household income | $134,451 | $84,362 | $+50,089 |
| Median home value | $588,000 | $379,737 | $+208,263 |
| Owner-occupied homes | 71.8% | 65.1% | +6.7 pts |
| Unemployment, July 2026 (BLS county data) | 4.7% | 4.4% | +0.3 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months | -1.4 pts | — | — |
| Change since the last election (24 months) | -0.8 pts | — | — |
| Unemployment (ACS) | 5.6% | 5.2% | +0.4 pts |
| Federal government workers | 1.5% | 2.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Work from home | 20.4% | 13.5% | +7.0 pts |
| Households on SNAP | 4.0% | 11.8% | -7.8 pts |
| Households with Social Security income | 29.4% | 31.2% | -1.8 pts |
| Households with public assistance income | 1.7% | 2.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year | 1.8% | 2.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Gini index | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.06 |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $99,481 | $73,248 | $+26,233 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 26.3% | 32.0% | -5.6 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 12.5% | 19.6% | -7.1 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 3.8% | 5.8% | -2.1 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 2.8% | 4.5% | -1.6 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 2.8% | 4.0% | -1.2 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.4% | 0.6% | -0.3 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 0.1% | 0.9% | -0.7 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.4% | 1.3% | +0.1 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 0.3% | 0.9% | -0.6 pts |
ACS 5-year 2023, the Census Bureau's own tabulation of this district (118th Congress lines). Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.
Who is favoured, and by how much?
The 90% interval runs from +6.5 to +34.5 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.
What is this built on?
A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.
Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.
Why does the model say this?
Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 presidential lean (D+9.7): 10.6 pts toward the Democrat; PAC money balance: 7.7 pts toward the Democrat; 2024 House lean (D+17.7): 6.2 pts toward the Democrat; total outside/party money: 1.5 pts toward the Republican; outside money balance: 1.2 pts toward the Republican.
How sure is it, and of what?
Total sd 8.52 points, made of the seat's own volatility 90%, correlated polling error 10%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.
How was this number made?
Run 00a09d4b-7980-4ec5-ada0-077968a87242, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).