Model health
as of 2026-10-03 04:48 UTC
May numbers be published right now?
No source anomalies; data is current.
What are the sources doing?
13 source(s) active in the last 60 days and none of them behaving differently from their own recent past: cygnal_nvt_deck, echelon_omnibus_topline, emerson_poll_release, fec_biennial_report, fivethirtyeight_generic_ballot, fivethirtyeight_raw_polls, marquette_poll_release, medsl_house, medsl_senate, quinnipiac_poll_release, rasmussen_release, wikipedia, yougov_article. Health is measured against a source's own history rather than against a threshold, because the failures this project has actually had returned plausible answers rather than errors.
How current is the evidence?
16154 live polls, freshest fielded 2026-10-01, 8874 (55%) verified against a primary source. The queue is empty rather than backed up: of the rest, 3182 carry no citation to check and 4098 have one that could not be confirmed -- a dead link, a document that never held the numbers, or a host whose terms forbid fetching it.
How current are the forecasts?
9972 runs, 7425 of them backtests, freshest as of 2026-10-02.
Is anything stored that cannot be shown?
36 stored forecasts do not say which candidate their margin is for and are withheld from every screen.