House districts
410 of 413 districts, most competitive first · prior-only, no district polls exist · as of 2026-10-02
Prior-only forecasts. No House district has been polled in this corpus, so each row is the district's own history shifted by the national environment, with the shared national error on top. The median 90% range is 28 points wide, which is what not polling a race costs; 278 of 410 districts are above 95% and 53 sit within 30 points of a coin flip. Published under house_district_prior/0.2.0 (research status).
| District | Favoured | Win prob | Expected margin | 90% range | Prior basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-6 | Republican | 50% | D+0.0 | R+13.9 to D+13.9 | ground-up model |
| NC-11 | Republican | 51% | R+0.2 | R+15.2 to D+14.7 | ground-up model |
| PA-10 | Republican | 51% | R+0.3 | R+14.0 to D+13.5 | ground-up model |
| MT-1 | Republican | 52% | R+0.4 | R+15.3 to D+14.6 | ground-up model |
| PA-8 | Republican | 52% | R+0.6 | R+14.5 to D+13.3 | ground-up model |
| MI-10 | Democrat | 52% | D+0.6 | R+14.3 to D+15.5 | ground-up model |
| CA-22 | Democrat | 53% | D+0.7 | R+14.5 to D+15.6 | ground-up model |
| AZ-2 | Republican | 54% | R+0.8 | R+14.8 to D+13.1 | ground-up model |
| IA-2 | Democrat | 54% | D+1.0 | R+13.9 to D+16.0 | ground-up model |
| TN-5 | Republican | 56% | R+1.5 | R+16.7 to D+13.7 | ground-up model |
| TX-35 | Democrat | 58% | D+1.8 | R+13.2 to D+16.8 | ground-up model |
| NC-3 | Republican | 58% | R+1.9 | R+17.0 to D+13.1 | ground-up model |
| CO-5 | Republican | 59% | R+1.9 | R+15.9 to D+12.2 | ground-up model |
| PA-1 | Republican | 61% | R+2.3 | R+16.3 to D+11.9 | ground-up model |
| NV-2 | Republican | 63% | R+3.1 | R+17.9 to D+11.8 | ground-up model |
| IA-3 | Democrat | 63% | D+2.8 | R+11.2 to D+16.8 | ground-up model |
| OH-15 | Democrat | 64% | D+3.2 | R+11.9 to D+18.1 | ground-up model |
| VA-1 | Democrat | 64% | D+3.0 | R+11.0 to D+16.9 | ground-up model |
| AL-2 | Democrat | 65% | D+3.4 | R+11.5 to D+18.5 | ground-up model |
| MO-2 | Republican | 65% | R+3.3 | R+17.4 to D+10.8 | ground-up model |
| TN-9 | Republican | 66% | R+3.6 | R+18.5 to D+11.4 | ground-up model |
| TX-32 | Republican | 66% | R+3.8 | R+18.9 to D+11.2 | ground-up model |
| FL-9 | Democrat | 67% | D+4.0 | R+10.9 to D+18.9 | ground-up model |
| NJ-7 | Democrat | 67% | D+3.9 | R+10.3 to D+18.0 | ground-up model |
| PA-7 | Democrat | 67% | D+3.8 | R+9.9 to D+17.8 | ground-up model |
| NY-17 | Democrat | 68% | D+3.8 | R+10.1 to D+17.6 | ground-up model |
| SC-1 | Republican | 68% | R+4.3 | R+19.4 to D+10.7 | ground-up model |
| TX-23 | Republican | 68% | R+4.3 | R+19.2 to D+10.8 | ground-up model |
| IA-1 | Democrat | 68% | D+4.0 | R+10.2 to D+18.0 | ground-up model |
| MI-4 | Democrat | 68% | D+4.0 | R+9.7 to D+17.9 | ground-up model |
| VA-5 | Republican | 69% | R+4.1 | R+17.8 to D+9.7 | ground-up model |
| MI-7 | Democrat | 69% | D+4.2 | R+9.7 to D+18.2 | ground-up model |
| FL-13 | Republican | 70% | R+4.7 | R+19.6 to D+10.3 | ground-up model |
| NC-9 | Republican | 70% | R+4.9 | R+19.8 to D+10.1 | ground-up model |
| NJ-2 | Republican | 71% | R+4.8 | R+18.7 to D+9.2 | ground-up model |
| FL-26 | Republican | 72% | R+5.3 | R+20.3 to D+9.7 | ground-up model |
| KY-6 | Republican | 72% | R+5.3 | R+20.2 to D+9.6 | ground-up model |
| FL-7 | Democrat | 72% | D+5.4 | R+9.7 to D+20.2 | ground-up model |
| FL-16 | Republican | 73% | R+5.7 | R+20.8 to D+9.4 | ground-up model |
| AZ-1 | Democrat | 74% | D+5.8 | R+8.9 to D+20.8 | ground-up model |
| CO-8 | Democrat | 74% | D+5.4 | R+8.4 to D+19.4 | ground-up model |
| FL-11 | Republican | 74% | R+6.0 | R+21.0 to D+9.3 | ground-up model |
| TN-8 | Republican | 75% | R+6.2 | R+21.1 to D+8.8 | ground-up model |
| IN-5 | Republican | 76% | R+5.9 | R+19.8 to D+7.9 | ground-up model |
| VA-2 | Democrat | 76% | D+6.0 | R+8.0 to D+19.8 | ground-up model |
| WA-5 | Republican | 77% | R+6.4 | R+20.3 to D+7.4 | ground-up model |
| NC-5 | Republican | 77% | R+6.9 | R+21.9 to D+7.9 | ground-up model |
| GA-1 | Republican | 78% | R+7.0 | R+22.1 to D+8.0 | ground-up model |
| FL-24 | Democrat | 78% | D+7.1 | R+8.1 to D+22.2 | ground-up model |
| NC-7 | Republican | 79% | R+7.4 | R+22.2 to D+7.8 | ground-up model |
| WI-3 | Republican | 79% | R+6.8 | R+20.8 to D+7.0 | ground-up model |
| TX-9 | Republican | 80% | R+7.5 | R+22.3 to D+7.5 | ground-up model |
| OH-7 | Democrat | 80% | D+7.6 | R+7.5 to D+22.7 | ground-up model |
| FL-5 | Republican | 80% | R+7.8 | R+22.8 to D+7.2 | ground-up model |
| OH-10 | Republican | 80% | R+7.8 | R+22.9 to D+7.2 | ground-up model |
| OH-8 | Republican | 80% | R+7.8 | R+22.7 to D+7.3 | ground-up model |
| CA-1 | Democrat | 80% | D+7.8 | R+7.1 to D+22.8 | ground-up model |
| NC-1 | Democrat | 80% | D+7.8 | R+7.3 to D+22.6 | ground-up model |
| FL-2 | Republican | 81% | R+7.8 | R+22.5 to D+7.2 | ground-up model |
| CO-3 | Republican | 81% | R+7.6 | R+21.6 to D+6.3 | ground-up model |
| WI-1 | Republican | 82% | R+7.7 | R+21.6 to D+6.1 | ground-up model |
| NY-1 | Republican | 82% | R+7.9 | R+22.1 to D+6.3 | ground-up model |
| AZ-5 | Republican | 82% | R+8.5 | R+23.7 to D+6.6 | ground-up model |
| AR-2 | Republican | 82% | R+7.9 | R+21.9 to D+6.0 | ground-up model |
| NC-14 | Republican | 82% | R+8.5 | R+23.3 to D+6.4 | ground-up model |
| OK-5 | Republican | 84% | R+8.3 | R+22.3 to D+5.6 | ground-up model |
| FL-22 | Democrat | 84% | D+9.0 | R+6.3 to D+24.3 | ground-up model |
| NC-6 | Republican | 84% | R+9.0 | R+24.1 to D+6.2 | ground-up model |
| MN-1 | Republican | 84% | R+8.4 | R+22.2 to D+5.5 | ground-up model |
| SC-2 | Republican | 85% | R+8.7 | R+22.5 to D+5.3 | ground-up model |
| FL-12 | Republican | 85% | R+9.4 | R+24.5 to D+5.6 | ground-up model |
| OH-9 | Democrat | 85% | D+9.3 | R+5.6 to D+24.3 | ground-up model |
| FL-8 | Republican | 85% | R+9.6 | R+24.6 to D+5.4 | ground-up model |
| GA-12 | Republican | 86% | R+9.1 | R+23.0 to D+4.8 | ground-up model |
| NC-10 | Republican | 86% | R+9.9 | R+24.7 to D+5.2 | ground-up model |
| FL-21 | Republican | 86% | R+10.1 | R+25.3 to D+4.9 | ground-up model |
| TX-15 | Republican | 87% | R+10.0 | R+24.8 to D+4.9 | ground-up model |
| TX-24 | Republican | 87% | R+10.2 | R+25.1 to D+5.0 | ground-up model |
| TX-38 | Republican | 87% | R+10.2 | R+25.4 to D+4.6 | ground-up model |
| ME-2 | Democrat | 87% | D+10.2 | R+4.7 to D+25.2 | ground-up model |
| NC-13 | Republican | 87% | R+10.4 | R+25.5 to D+4.6 | ground-up model |
| CA-48 | Democrat | 87% | D+10.4 | R+4.8 to D+25.3 | ground-up model |
| TX-34 | Democrat | 87% | D+10.3 | R+4.7 to D+25.0 | ground-up model |
| GA-10 | Republican | 87% | R+10.3 | R+25.3 to D+4.7 | ground-up model |
| WI-7 | Republican | 87% | R+10.5 | R+25.6 to D+4.6 | ground-up model |
| NE-1 | Republican | 88% | R+9.6 | R+23.3 to D+4.0 | ground-up model |
| WI-8 | Republican | 88% | R+9.8 | R+23.7 to D+4.0 | ground-up model |
| TN-4 | Republican | 88% | R+10.7 | R+26.0 to D+4.4 | ground-up model |
| TX-2 | Republican | 88% | R+10.7 | R+25.7 to D+4.1 | ground-up model |
| NY-21 | Republican | 88% | R+10.9 | R+25.7 to D+4.0 | ground-up model |
| WI-6 | Republican | 88% | R+9.9 | R+23.6 to D+3.9 | ground-up model |
| TX-28 | Democrat | 89% | D+11.1 | R+3.9 to D+26.3 | ground-up model |
| WA-4 | Republican | 89% | R+11.0 | R+26.0 to D+4.0 | ground-up model |
| OH-14 | Republican | 89% | R+11.0 | R+26.2 to D+3.9 | ground-up model |
| WA-3 | Democrat | 89% | D+10.5 | R+3.5 to D+24.3 | ground-up model |
| NC-8 | Republican | 89% | R+11.3 | R+26.2 to D+3.8 | ground-up model |
| NY-3 | Democrat | 89% | D+10.6 | R+3.5 to D+24.8 | ground-up model |
| CA-13 | Democrat | 89% | D+11.6 | R+3.3 to D+26.6 | ground-up model |
| MN-8 | Republican | 90% | R+10.6 | R+24.5 to D+3.2 | ground-up model |
| OK-1 | Republican | 90% | R+11.5 | R+26.3 to D+3.4 | ground-up model |
| FL-4 | Republican | 90% | R+11.4 | R+26.4 to D+3.5 | ground-up model |
| TN-7 | Republican | 90% | R+11.6 | R+26.8 to D+3.4 | ground-up model |
| TX-21 | Republican | 90% | R+11.6 | R+26.5 to D+3.3 | ground-up model |
| NE-2 | Democrat | 91% | D+12.0 | R+3.1 to D+27.1 | ground-up model |
| CO-4 | Republican | 91% | R+11.1 | R+24.9 to D+2.7 | ground-up model |
| CA-23 | Republican | 91% | R+12.2 | R+27.4 to D+2.9 | ground-up model |
| AZ-8 | Republican | 91% | R+11.3 | R+25.4 to D+2.6 | ground-up model |
| MD-1 | Republican | 91% | R+11.5 | R+25.5 to D+2.6 | ground-up model |
| FL-27 | Republican | 92% | R+12.7 | R+27.6 to D+2.3 | ground-up model |
| NY-2 | Republican | 92% | R+11.8 | R+25.6 to D+2.2 | ground-up model |
| TX-31 | Republican | 92% | R+13.0 | R+28.1 to D+2.2 | ground-up model |
| TX-17 | Republican | 92% | R+13.2 | R+28.3 to D+1.9 | ground-up model |
| TX-5 | Republican | 93% | R+13.0 | R+27.9 to D+1.8 | ground-up model |
| OH-1 | Democrat | 93% | D+13.2 | R+1.8 to D+28.3 | ground-up model |
| VA-7 | Democrat | 93% | D+12.3 | R+1.6 to D+26.3 | ground-up model |
| CA-5 | Republican | 93% | R+13.5 | R+28.4 to D+1.5 | ground-up model |
| SC-4 | Republican | 93% | R+12.6 | R+26.7 to D+1.4 | ground-up model |
| FL-25 | Democrat | 93% | D+13.5 | R+1.4 to D+28.4 | ground-up model |
| IA-4 | Republican | 93% | R+13.5 | R+28.4 to D+1.1 | ground-up model |
| FL-18 | Republican | 94% | R+13.8 | R+29.0 to D+1.2 | ground-up model |
| TX-22 | Republican | 94% | R+14.1 | R+29.1 to D+1.0 | ground-up model |
| MI-1 | Republican | 94% | R+13.3 | R+27.3 to D+0.7 | ground-up model |
| NH-1 | Democrat | 94% | D+14.0 | R+0.8 to D+28.8 | ground-up model |
| TX-27 | Republican | 94% | R+14.3 | R+29.1 to D+0.7 | ground-up model |
| MN-6 | Republican | 94% | R+13.4 | R+27.5 to D+0.7 | ground-up model |
| NJ-9 | Democrat | 94% | D+13.4 | R+0.6 to D+27.4 | ground-up model |
| TX-10 | Republican | 94% | R+14.4 | R+29.3 to D+0.5 | ground-up model |
| KS-2 | Republican | 95% | R+13.3 | R+27.1 to D+0.4 | ground-up model |
| TX-3 | Republican | 95% | R+14.9 | R+30.0 to D+0.2 | ground-up model |
| FL-28 | Republican | 95% | R+15.0 | R+30.0 to D+0.1 | ground-up model |
| NY-4 | Democrat | 95% | D+13.9 | R+0.0 to D+27.8 | ground-up model |
| FL-6 | Republican | 95% | R+15.0 | R+29.8 to D+0.0 | ground-up model |
| CA-45 | Democrat | 95% | D+15.0 | D+0.0 to D+30.1 | ground-up model |
| NV-3 | Democrat | 95% | D+13.9 | D+0.0 to D+27.7 | ground-up model |
| TX-6 | Republican | 95% | R+15.4 | R+30.4 to R+0.1 | ground-up model |
| FL-3 | Republican | 95% | R+15.0 | R+30.0 to R+0.2 | ground-up model |
| AL-6 | Republican | 95% | R+15.2 | R+30.2 to R+0.3 | ground-up model |
| SC-5 | Republican | 96% | R+15.4 | R+30.4 to R+0.6 | ground-up model |
| NV-1 | Democrat | 96% | D+14.6 | D+0.6 to D+28.5 | ground-up model |
| WI-5 | Republican | 96% | R+14.4 | R+28.2 to R+0.6 | ground-up model |
| TX-36 | Republican | 96% | R+15.6 | R+30.6 to R+0.8 | ground-up model |
| TX-8 | Republican | 96% | R+15.8 | R+30.8 to R+0.8 | ground-up model |
| NM-2 | Democrat | 96% | D+14.8 | D+0.8 to D+28.4 | ground-up model |
| TX-14 | Republican | 96% | R+15.7 | R+30.5 to R+0.9 | ground-up model |
| TX-4 | Republican | 96% | R+15.9 | R+30.9 to R+1.0 | ground-up model |
| IL-16 | Republican | 96% | R+14.9 | R+28.8 to R+1.0 | ground-up model |
| TX-25 | Republican | 96% | R+16.2 | R+31.1 to R+1.0 | ground-up model |
| CA-21 | Democrat | 96% | D+16.5 | D+1.3 to D+31.7 | ground-up model |
| FL-15 | Republican | 97% | R+16.6 | R+31.5 to R+1.7 | ground-up model |
| TX-26 | Republican | 97% | R+16.7 | R+31.6 to R+1.6 | ground-up model |
| NJ-5 | Democrat | 97% | D+15.4 | D+1.5 to D+29.4 | ground-up model |
| IN-1 | Democrat | 97% | D+15.3 | D+1.5 to D+29.2 | ground-up model |
| GA-7 | Republican | 97% | R+15.9 | R+30.0 to R+1.6 | ground-up model |
| GA-11 | Republican | 97% | R+16.7 | R+31.7 to R+1.9 | ground-up model |
| TX-12 | Republican | 97% | R+16.5 | R+31.5 to R+1.7 | ground-up model |
| FL-14 | Democrat | 97% | D+16.8 | D+2.0 to D+31.5 | ground-up model |
| OH-5 | Republican | 97% | R+17.1 | R+32.1 to R+2.3 | ground-up model |
| PA-11 | Republican | 97% | R+15.7 | R+29.4 to R+2.0 | ground-up model |
| FL-17 | Republican | 97% | R+17.5 | R+32.6 to R+2.1 | ground-up model |
| OH-13 | Democrat | 97% | D+17.6 | D+2.5 to D+32.7 | ground-up model |
| TN-6 | Republican | 97% | R+17.4 | R+32.4 to R+2.4 | ground-up model |
| FL-23 | Democrat | 97% | D+17.5 | D+2.5 to D+32.7 | ground-up model |
| NV-4 | Democrat | 97% | D+16.3 | D+2.5 to D+30.1 | ground-up model |
| WA-8 | Democrat | 97% | D+16.5 | D+2.5 to D+30.4 | ground-up model |
| NY-23 | Republican | 97% | R+16.8 | R+31.0 to R+2.7 | ground-up model |
| IL-8 | Democrat | 97% | D+17.9 | D+2.9 to D+32.9 | ground-up model |
| NY-19 | Democrat | 98% | D+16.4 | D+2.5 to D+30.0 | ground-up model |
| KS-4 | Republican | 98% | R+16.7 | R+30.5 to R+2.9 | ground-up model |
| MI-8 | Democrat | 98% | D+17.0 | D+3.1 to D+31.1 | ground-up model |
| VA-6 | Republican | 98% | R+17.1 | R+30.9 to R+3.4 | ground-up model |
| VA-10 | Democrat | 98% | D+17.6 | D+3.7 to D+31.7 | ground-up model |
| IL-17 | Democrat | 98% | D+17.4 | D+3.4 to D+31.2 | ground-up model |
| PA-16 | Republican | 98% | R+18.0 | R+31.8 to R+4.1 | ground-up model |
| MD-6 | Democrat | 98% | D+17.7 | D+3.9 to D+31.6 | ground-up model |
| MN-2 | Democrat | 98% | D+19.1 | D+4.0 to D+34.0 | ground-up model |
| OR-2 | Republican | 98% | R+17.5 | R+31.2 to R+3.6 | ground-up model |
| IL-11 | Democrat | 99% | D+18.0 | D+4.4 to D+31.9 | ground-up model |
| IL-14 | Democrat | 99% | D+18.5 | D+4.7 to D+32.3 | ground-up model |
| AZ-4 | Democrat | 99% | D+18.5 | D+4.7 to D+32.3 | ground-up model |
| AR-3 | Republican | 99% | R+18.7 | R+32.7 to R+4.8 | ground-up model |
| FL-19 | Republican | 99% | R+20.4 | R+35.6 to R+5.2 | ground-up model |
| OR-5 | Democrat | 99% | D+18.5 | D+4.7 to D+32.4 | ground-up model |
| NM-3 | Democrat | 99% | D+18.6 | D+4.9 to D+32.2 | ground-up model |
| NH-2 | Democrat | 99% | D+18.7 | D+4.7 to D+32.4 | ground-up model |
| NY-11 | Republican | 99% | R+19.0 | R+33.1 to R+5.1 | ground-up model |
| OR-6 | Democrat | 99% | D+19.0 | D+5.2 to D+32.8 | ground-up model |
| SC-7 | Republican | 99% | R+18.9 | R+32.9 to R+4.9 | ground-up model |
| NY-18 | Democrat | 99% | D+18.7 | D+4.8 to D+32.6 | ground-up model |
| OH-12 | Republican | 99% | R+20.5 | R+35.6 to R+5.5 | ground-up model |
| IN-2 | Republican | 99% | R+19.4 | R+33.4 to R+5.4 | ground-up model |
| OR-4 | Democrat | 99% | D+18.8 | D+5.2 to D+32.6 | ground-up model |
| AL-7 | Democrat | 99% | D+20.8 | D+5.6 to D+35.8 | ground-up model |
| CA-41 | Democrat | 99% | D+20.6 | D+5.6 to D+35.5 | ground-up model |
| IL-6 | Democrat | 99% | D+19.3 | D+5.5 to D+33.1 | ground-up model |
| NY-24 | Republican | 99% | R+19.3 | R+33.2 to R+5.5 | ground-up model |
| CA-25 | Democrat | 99% | D+20.8 | D+6.0 to D+35.7 | ground-up model |
| AL-5 | Republican | 99% | R+21.2 | R+36.1 to R+6.2 | ground-up model |
| PA-17 | Democrat | 99% | D+20.1 | D+6.3 to D+33.9 | ground-up model |
| CT-5 | Democrat | 99% | D+20.2 | D+6.5 to D+33.8 | ground-up model |
| CA-27 | Democrat | 99% | D+21.6 | D+6.7 to D+36.6 | ground-up model |
| CA-38 | Democrat | 99% | D+21.5 | D+6.3 to D+36.6 | ground-up model |
| MI-5 | Republican | 99% | R+20.2 | R+34.3 to R+6.0 | ground-up model |
| IN-6 | Republican | 99% | R+20.3 | R+34.3 to R+6.3 | ground-up model |
| KY-4 | Republican | 99% | R+22.5 | R+37.6 to R+7.3 | ground-up model |
| NY-6 | Democrat | 99% | D+20.5 | D+6.4 to D+34.8 | ground-up model |
| NJ-3 | Democrat | 99% | D+20.7 | D+6.6 to D+34.8 | ground-up model |
| GA-2 | Democrat | 99% | D+20.5 | D+6.7 to D+34.2 | ground-up model |
| CA-33 | Democrat | 99% | D+22.5 | D+7.2 to D+37.4 | ground-up model |
| MO-3 | Republican | 99% | R+20.6 | R+34.5 to R+6.8 | ground-up model |
| NJ-6 | Democrat | 99% | D+20.5 | D+6.6 to D+34.4 | ground-up model |
| OH-6 | Republican | 99% | R+22.3 | R+37.2 to R+7.5 | ground-up model |
| ID-2 | Republican | 99% | R+21.0 | R+35.0 to R+6.7 | ground-up model |
| CA-9 | Democrat | 99% | D+22.8 | D+7.6 to D+37.9 | ground-up model |
| CA-47 | Democrat | 99% | D+22.3 | D+7.5 to D+37.2 | ground-up model |
| KS-3 | Democrat | 99% | D+20.4 | D+6.9 to D+34.1 | ground-up model |
| CA-39 | Democrat | 99% | D+22.3 | D+7.2 to D+37.3 | ground-up model |
| UT-2 | Republican | 99% | R+23.2 | R+38.2 to R+8.2 | ground-up model |
| NJ-11 | Democrat | 99% | D+21.9 | D+7.7 to D+35.8 | ground-up model |
| CA-31 | Democrat | 99% | D+22.9 | D+7.9 to D+38.0 | ground-up model |
| CA-42 | Democrat | 99% | D+22.9 | D+8.1 to D+37.8 | ground-up model |
| IN-4 | Republican | 99% | R+21.7 | R+35.6 to R+7.7 | ground-up model |
| CA-20 | Republican | 100% | R+23.6 | R+38.5 to R+8.5 | ground-up model |
| IN-3 | Republican | 100% | R+22.0 | R+35.9 to R+8.2 | ground-up model |
| MI-3 | Democrat | 100% | D+21.8 | D+8.0 to D+35.6 | ground-up model |
| CA-26 | Democrat | 100% | D+24.2 | D+9.3 to D+39.3 | ground-up model |
| CA-49 | Democrat | 100% | D+23.8 | D+8.9 to D+38.9 | ground-up model |
| TX-11 | Republican | 100% | R+24.2 | R+39.4 to R+9.4 | ground-up model |
| CA-35 | Democrat | 100% | D+24.3 | D+9.3 to D+39.4 | ground-up model |
| TN-2 | Republican | 100% | R+24.1 | R+38.9 to R+9.2 | ground-up model |
| NY-22 | Democrat | 100% | D+22.8 | D+9.1 to D+36.5 | ground-up model |
| GA-3 | Republican | 100% | R+23.0 | R+36.8 to R+8.9 | ground-up model |
| NJ-12 | Democrat | 100% | D+24.3 | D+9.3 to D+39.3 | ground-up model |
| IN-9 | Republican | 100% | R+23.5 | R+37.3 to R+9.5 | ground-up model |
| MA-9 | Democrat | 100% | D+24.1 | D+10.2 to D+38.1 | ground-up model |
| CA-3 | Democrat | 100% | D+25.2 | D+10.2 to D+40.2 | ground-up model |
| RI-2 | Democrat | 100% | D+23.1 | D+9.4 to D+37.1 | ground-up model |
| CA-46 | Democrat | 100% | D+26.7 | D+11.7 to D+41.7 | ground-up model |
| PA-6 | Democrat | 100% | D+23.0 | D+9.2 to D+36.8 | ground-up model |
| TN-3 | Republican | 100% | R+26.4 | R+41.5 to R+11.4 | ground-up model |
| CT-2 | Democrat | 100% | D+24.3 | D+10.5 to D+38.1 | ground-up model |
| UT-4 | Republican | 100% | R+26.1 | R+41.2 to R+10.9 | ground-up model |
| MI-2 | Republican | 100% | R+24.6 | R+38.5 to R+10.6 | ground-up model |
| PA-14 | Republican | 100% | R+23.7 | R+37.6 to R+9.7 | ground-up model |
| SD-AL | Republican | 100% | R+26.9 | R+41.9 to R+11.6 | ground-up model |
| MT-2 | Republican | 100% | R+24.9 | R+38.8 to R+11.1 | ground-up model |
| NJ-4 | Republican | 100% | R+25.0 | R+39.0 to R+11.0 | ground-up model |
| AZ-9 | Republican | 100% | R+25.3 | R+39.2 to R+11.4 | ground-up model |
| GA-9 | Republican | 100% | R+25.2 | R+39.1 to R+11.1 | ground-up model |
| CT-3 | Democrat | 100% | D+25.4 | D+11.7 to D+39.4 | ground-up model |
| AL-1 | Republican | 100% | R+27.3 | R+42.3 to R+12.4 | ground-up model |
| IL-4 | Democrat | 100% | D+26.8 | D+11.9 to D+41.6 | ground-up model |
| FL-1 | Republican | 100% | R+26.4 | R+41.2 to R+11.5 | ground-up model |
| OK-4 | Republican | 100% | R+25.3 | R+39.2 to R+11.2 | ground-up model |
| IL-13 | Democrat | 100% | D+25.6 | D+11.7 to D+39.4 | ground-up model |
| KS-1 | Republican | 100% | R+26.1 | R+39.9 to R+12.3 | ground-up model |
| MI-9 | Republican | 100% | R+26.2 | R+40.2 to R+12.3 | ground-up model |
| TX-16 | Democrat | 100% | D+29.1 | D+14.2 to D+44.3 | ground-up model |
| GA-8 | Republican | 100% | R+25.8 | R+39.6 to R+11.9 | ground-up model |
| MI-11 | Democrat | 100% | D+27.2 | D+12.2 to D+42.0 | ground-up model |
| NM-1 | Democrat | 100% | D+25.5 | D+11.8 to D+39.3 | ground-up model |
| DE-AL | Democrat | 100% | D+26.2 | D+12.5 to D+40.0 | ground-up model |
| MS-3 | Republican | 100% | R+25.7 | R+39.7 to R+11.7 | ground-up model |
| NY-20 | Democrat | 100% | D+27.2 | D+13.3 to D+41.2 | ground-up model |
| GA-14 | Republican | 100% | R+26.9 | R+40.9 to R+12.9 | ground-up model |
| FL-20 | Democrat | 100% | D+28.9 | D+13.9 to D+44.1 | ground-up model |
| CA-52 | Democrat | 100% | D+30.4 | D+15.4 to D+45.2 | ground-up model |
| CA-50 | Democrat | 100% | D+29.4 | D+14.2 to D+44.3 | ground-up model |
| IN-8 | Republican | 100% | R+29.1 | R+43.0 to R+15.1 | ground-up model |
| PA-12 | Democrat | 100% | D+26.5 | D+12.5 to D+40.3 | ground-up model |
| WA-10 | Democrat | 100% | D+27.3 | D+13.4 to D+41.3 | ground-up model |
| CO-7 | Democrat | 100% | D+26.8 | D+13.0 to D+40.6 | ground-up model |
| CA-51 | Democrat | 100% | D+31.0 | D+16.0 to D+45.9 | ground-up model |
| OH-4 | Republican | 100% | R+32.1 | R+47.3 to R+17.0 | ground-up model |
| IL-10 | Democrat | 100% | D+28.9 | D+14.9 to D+42.9 | ground-up model |
| WA-6 | Democrat | 100% | D+29.1 | D+15.2 to D+42.9 | ground-up model |
| NJ-1 | Democrat | 100% | D+28.3 | D+14.6 to D+42.2 | ground-up model |
| PA-15 | Republican | 100% | R+31.1 | R+45.0 to R+17.2 | ground-up model |
| PA-4 | Democrat | 100% | D+27.7 | D+13.8 to D+41.9 | ground-up model |
| UT-1 | Democrat | 100% | D+34.2 | D+19.2 to D+48.9 | ground-up model |
| WY-AL | Republican | 100% | R+32.7 | R+47.7 to R+17.7 | ground-up model |
| CA-2 | Democrat | 100% | D+35.0 | D+20.0 to D+50.1 | ground-up model |
| MO-6 | Republican | 100% | R+31.6 | R+46.4 to R+16.8 | ground-up model |
| MS-2 | Democrat | 100% | D+31.7 | D+18.0 to D+45.5 | ground-up model |
| OH-2 | Republican | 100% | R+33.1 | R+48.1 to R+18.2 | ground-up model |
| PA-9 | Republican | 100% | R+30.1 | R+44.2 to R+16.3 | ground-up model |
| AZ-7 | Democrat | 100% | D+30.3 | D+16.5 to D+44.2 | ground-up model |
| CA-24 | Democrat | 100% | D+34.6 | D+19.8 to D+49.6 | ground-up model |
| CT-4 | Democrat | 100% | D+33.0 | D+19.2 to D+46.8 | ground-up model |
| MD-2 | Democrat | 100% | D+31.1 | D+17.3 to D+44.9 | ground-up model |
| MN-3 | Democrat | 100% | D+33.2 | D+19.5 to D+47.1 | ground-up model |
| MO-4 | Republican | 100% | R+31.8 | R+45.6 to R+17.8 | ground-up model |
| MO-5 | Democrat | 100% | D+31.0 | D+17.1 to D+44.8 | ground-up model |
| ND-AL | Republican | 100% | R+31.2 | R+45.2 to R+17.3 | ground-up model |
| UT-3 | Republican | 100% | R+33.6 | R+48.7 to R+18.6 | ground-up model |
| WV-1 | Republican | 100% | R+33.1 | R+47.2 to R+19.1 | ground-up model |
| CA-18 | Democrat | 100% | D+37.1 | D+21.9 to D+52.1 | ground-up model |
| CA-28 | Democrat | 100% | D+34.0 | D+19.1 to D+48.7 | ground-up model |
| CA-32 | Democrat | 100% | D+32.4 | D+17.2 to D+47.6 | ground-up model |
| CO-6 | Democrat | 100% | D+31.3 | D+17.5 to D+45.2 | ground-up model |
| CT-1 | Democrat | 100% | D+34.5 | D+19.6 to D+49.5 | ground-up model |
| KY-3 | Democrat | 100% | D+31.7 | D+18.0 to D+45.6 | ground-up model |
| MA-3 | Democrat | 100% | D+31.9 | D+18.1 to D+46.1 | ground-up model |
| MA-4 | Democrat | 100% | D+34.0 | D+20.0 to D+47.9 | ground-up model |
| ME-1 | Democrat | 100% | D+33.0 | D+19.1 to D+47.0 | ground-up model |
| MN-7 | Republican | 100% | R+32.3 | R+46.3 to R+18.5 | ground-up model |
| NY-25 | Democrat | 100% | D+32.2 | D+18.3 to D+46.0 | ground-up model |
| SC-6 | Democrat | 100% | D+33.5 | D+19.7 to D+47.3 | ground-up model |
| TX-1 | Republican | 100% | R+41.1 | R+56.0 to R+26.2 | ground-up model |
| TX-13 | Republican | 100% | R+36.5 | R+51.3 to R+21.6 | ground-up model |
| TX-7 | Democrat | 100% | D+34.4 | D+19.4 to D+49.6 | ground-up model |
| WV-2 | Republican | 100% | R+32.6 | R+46.6 to R+18.4 | ground-up model |
| AL-3 | Republican | 100% | R+37.1 | R+52.1 to R+22.2 | ground-up model |
| AL-4 | Republican | 100% | R+54.5 | R+69.6 to R+39.5 | ground-up model |
| AR-1 | Republican | 100% | R+40.0 | R+53.8 to R+26.5 | ground-up model |
| AR-4 | Republican | 100% | R+37.9 | R+51.8 to R+24.0 | ground-up model |
| AZ-3 | Democrat | 100% | D+49.3 | D+35.4 to D+62.9 | ground-up model |
| CA-10 | Democrat | 100% | D+42.1 | D+27.1 to D+57.3 | ground-up model |
| CA-15 | Democrat | 100% | D+56.2 | D+41.2 to D+71.5 | ground-up model |
| CA-16 | Democrat | 100% | D+54.5 | D+39.9 to D+69.4 | ground-up model |
| CA-17 | Democrat | 100% | D+44.2 | D+29.4 to D+59.3 | ground-up model |
| CA-19 | Democrat | 100% | D+44.2 | D+29.2 to D+59.3 | ground-up model |
| CA-30 | Democrat | 100% | D+56.3 | D+41.7 to D+71.0 | ground-up model |
| CA-36 | Democrat | 100% | D+47.1 | D+32.2 to D+62.0 | ground-up model |
| CA-43 | Democrat | 100% | D+53.8 | D+38.9 to D+68.7 | ground-up model |
| CA-44 | Democrat | 100% | D+42.6 | D+27.6 to D+57.7 | ground-up model |
| CA-8 | Democrat | 100% | D+44.1 | D+29.2 to D+59.0 | ground-up model |
| CO-1 | Democrat | 100% | D+52.4 | D+37.6 to D+67.2 | ground-up model |
| CO-2 | Democrat | 100% | D+51.2 | D+37.6 to D+64.8 | ground-up model |
| GA-13 | Democrat | 100% | D+50.9 | D+36.0 to D+66.1 | ground-up model |
| GA-4 | Democrat | 100% | D+58.7 | D+45.0 to D+72.6 | ground-up model |
| GA-5 | Democrat | 100% | D+79.0 | D+65.2 to D+92.9 | ground-up model |
| GA-6 | Democrat | 100% | D+59.2 | D+45.5 to D+73.0 | ground-up model |
| HI-1 | Democrat | 100% | D+39.1 | D+25.3 to D+53.1 | ground-up model |
| HI-2 | Democrat | 100% | D+39.1 | D+25.5 to D+53.1 | ground-up model |
| ID-1 | Republican | 100% | R+37.9 | R+52.0 to R+24.0 | ground-up model |
| IL-1 | Democrat | 100% | D+41.9 | D+28.0 to D+55.7 | ground-up model |
| IL-12 | Republican | 100% | R+38.3 | R+52.2 to R+24.4 | ground-up model |
| IL-15 | Republican | 100% | R+35.4 | R+49.6 to R+21.5 | ground-up model |
| IL-2 | Democrat | 100% | D+42.7 | D+27.7 to D+57.5 | ground-up model |
| IL-3 | Democrat | 100% | D+43.3 | D+29.2 to D+57.3 | ground-up model |
| IL-5 | Democrat | 100% | D+44.3 | D+30.6 to D+58.1 | ground-up model |
| IL-7 | Democrat | 100% | D+73.4 | D+58.5 to D+88.4 | ground-up model |
| IL-9 | Democrat | 100% | D+43.5 | D+28.6 to D+58.4 | ground-up model |
| IN-7 | Democrat | 100% | D+49.2 | D+35.2 to D+62.9 | ground-up model |
| KY-1 | Republican | 100% | R+39.1 | R+53.1 to R+25.0 | ground-up model |
| KY-2 | Republican | 100% | R+36.6 | R+50.5 to R+22.6 | ground-up model |
| KY-5 | Republican | 100% | R+57.7 | R+71.4 to R+44.1 | ground-up model |
| MA-6 | Democrat | 100% | D+35.2 | D+20.3 to D+50.2 | ground-up model |
| MA-8 | Democrat | 100% | D+38.1 | D+24.1 to D+52.1 | ground-up model |
| MD-3 | Democrat | 100% | D+33.7 | D+19.8 to D+47.6 | ground-up model |
| MD-4 | Democrat | 100% | D+81.7 | D+67.7 to D+95.5 | ground-up model |
| MD-5 | Democrat | 100% | D+44.0 | D+29.0 to D+59.1 | ground-up model |
| MD-7 | Democrat | 100% | D+67.3 | D+53.6 to D+81.2 | ground-up model |
| MD-8 | Democrat | 100% | D+63.2 | D+49.5 to D+76.9 | ground-up model |
| MI-12 | Democrat | 100% | D+47.0 | D+33.3 to D+60.8 | ground-up model |
| MI-13 | Democrat | 100% | D+52.2 | D+37.5 to D+67.2 | ground-up model |
| MI-6 | Democrat | 100% | D+36.5 | D+22.8 to D+50.2 | ground-up model |
| MN-4 | Democrat | 100% | D+44.9 | D+31.1 to D+58.9 | ground-up model |
| MN-5 | Democrat | 100% | D+72.3 | D+58.5 to D+86.1 | ground-up model |
| MO-1 | Democrat | 100% | D+62.2 | D+48.3 to D+76.1 | ground-up model |
| MO-7 | Republican | 100% | R+36.2 | R+50.3 to R+22.3 | ground-up model |
| MO-8 | Republican | 100% | R+50.4 | R+64.5 to R+36.3 | ground-up model |
| MS-1 | Republican | 100% | R+34.9 | R+48.6 to R+20.9 | ground-up model |
| MS-4 | Republican | 100% | R+37.3 | R+51.0 to R+23.5 | ground-up model |
| NC-12 | Democrat | 100% | D+57.5 | D+42.6 to D+72.3 | ground-up model |
| NC-2 | Democrat | 100% | D+45.2 | D+30.3 to D+60.0 | ground-up model |
| NC-4 | Democrat | 100% | D+55.7 | D+40.7 to D+70.6 | ground-up model |
| NE-3 | Republican | 100% | R+48.9 | R+62.9 to R+35.0 | ground-up model |
| NJ-10 | Democrat | 100% | D+56.8 | D+42.9 to D+70.7 | ground-up model |
| NY-10 | Democrat | 100% | D+76.7 | D+61.8 to D+91.6 | ground-up model |
| NY-12 | Democrat | 100% | D+73.8 | D+59.0 to D+88.4 | ground-up model |
| NY-13 | Democrat | 100% | D+55.9 | D+40.7 to D+71.1 | ground-up model |
| NY-14 | Democrat | 100% | D+43.6 | D+29.7 to D+57.6 | ground-up model |
| NY-15 | Democrat | 100% | D+56.7 | D+42.7 to D+70.5 | ground-up model |
| NY-16 | Democrat | 100% | D+44.2 | D+30.4 to D+58.1 | ground-up model |
| NY-26 | Democrat | 100% | D+34.4 | D+20.7 to D+48.2 | ground-up model |
| NY-5 | Democrat | 100% | D+48.9 | D+34.9 to D+62.9 | ground-up model |
| NY-7 | Democrat | 100% | D+63.3 | D+48.3 to D+78.4 | ground-up model |
| NY-8 | Democrat | 100% | D+55.8 | D+41.9 to D+69.7 | ground-up model |
| NY-9 | Democrat | 100% | D+54.0 | D+40.0 to D+67.8 | ground-up model |
| OH-11 | Democrat | 100% | D+47.9 | D+32.7 to D+62.9 | ground-up model |
| OH-3 | Democrat | 100% | D+39.6 | D+24.7 to D+54.6 | ground-up model |
| OK-2 | Republican | 100% | R+45.5 | R+59.3 to R+31.6 | ground-up model |
| OK-3 | Republican | 100% | R+38.6 | R+52.4 to R+24.8 | ground-up model |
| OR-1 | Democrat | 100% | D+45.5 | D+31.5 to D+59.4 | ground-up model |
| OR-3 | Democrat | 100% | D+54.8 | D+41.1 to D+68.6 | ground-up model |
| PA-13 | Republican | 100% | R+34.1 | R+48.1 to R+20.1 | ground-up model |
| PA-2 | Democrat | 100% | D+47.9 | D+34.2 to D+61.7 | ground-up model |
| PA-5 | Democrat | 100% | D+41.0 | D+27.2 to D+54.8 | ground-up model |
| RI-1 | Democrat | 100% | D+35.1 | D+21.3 to D+49.0 | ground-up model |
| SC-3 | Republican | 100% | R+35.4 | R+49.2 to R+21.6 | ground-up model |
| TN-1 | Republican | 100% | R+48.0 | R+63.1 to R+33.0 | ground-up model |
| TX-18 | Democrat | 100% | D+57.8 | D+43.3 to D+72.8 | ground-up model |
| TX-19 | Republican | 100% | R+43.3 | R+58.2 to R+28.3 | ground-up model |
| TX-20 | Democrat | 100% | D+41.9 | D+27.0 to D+56.7 | ground-up model |
| TX-29 | Democrat | 100% | D+41.0 | D+26.1 to D+56.0 | ground-up model |
| TX-30 | Democrat | 100% | D+44.9 | D+30.0 to D+59.9 | ground-up model |
| TX-33 | Democrat | 100% | D+45.2 | D+30.3 to D+60.3 | ground-up model |
| TX-37 | Democrat | 100% | D+65.0 | D+50.1 to D+80.2 | ground-up model |
| VA-11 | Democrat | 100% | D+42.1 | D+28.3 to D+56.0 | ground-up model |
| VA-3 | Democrat | 100% | D+46.8 | D+33.0 to D+60.7 | ground-up model |
| VA-4 | Democrat | 100% | D+43.6 | D+29.6 to D+57.5 | ground-up model |
| VA-8 | Democrat | 100% | D+55.9 | D+42.1 to D+69.7 | ground-up model |
| VA-9 | Republican | 100% | R+38.0 | R+51.9 to R+24.3 | ground-up model |
| VT-AL | Democrat | 100% | D+44.8 | D+30.8 to D+58.8 | ground-up model |
| WA-1 | Democrat | 100% | D+38.5 | D+24.7 to D+52.2 | ground-up model |
| WA-2 | Democrat | 100% | D+35.2 | D+21.5 to D+49.2 | ground-up model |
| WA-7 | Democrat | 100% | D+76.7 | D+62.8 to D+90.7 | ground-up model |
| WA-9 | Democrat | 100% | D+52.2 | D+38.5 to D+65.9 | ground-up model |
| WI-4 | Democrat | 100% | D+58.9 | D+45.2 to D+72.6 | ground-up model |
How to read this table
There are no polls of individual House districts in this corpus, so no number here responds to opinion in the district it names — nothing observes it. Each row is the district's own electoral history, shifted by the change in the national environment since, and then given the correlated national polling error that moves every race in a cycle together. They will move when the national environment moves, and not otherwise. The win probability is decisive for most districts because most House seats are not competitive, which is a fact about the House and not an achievement of this model.
Published under house_district_prior/0.2.0, which is research status and has never been through the promotion gate. The chamber seat total on the front page and these districts come from the same simulated draws, so they cannot disagree.
What the basis column means:
- ground-up model (410 districts) — this district's lean predicted from its own features -- presidential and House history on the current lines, incumbency, candidate experience, money, demographics, local economy and religion -- learned from every contested race 2012-2024, with the national environment estimated from fundamentals and a bias-corrected generic ballot
3 districts are not forecast here
Listed rather than dropped, because a page that shows fewer races than the database holds is a page that quietly disagrees with itself.
- 3 Democrats and 6 Republicans -- no single contest — LA-5, LA-6
- a ranked-choice contest whose main challenger is an independent: in the official 18 August top-four primary Nick Begich (R) took 44.6%, Bill Hill (independent) 32.5% and Eric Hafner (D) 3.8%, and Jim McDermott (Libertarian) advanced after withdrawals. A Democrat-versus-Republican forecast would name the wrong challenger — AK-AL