Kansas · Senate
election 2026-11-03 · forecast as of 2026-10-01 · margins and probabilities are for Adam Hamilton
Who is running?
Adam Hamilton (Democratic), Roger Marshall (Republican), David Graham (Libertarian). The margin below is Adam Hamilton minus the other candidate in the main contest; the rest are on the ballot and not in it.
The race, in brief
Kansas elects a U.S. senator on November 3, 2026. The text describes Kansas as generally considered a red state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, while Democrats hold the governorship. The state profile records a white non-Hispanic share of 0.7, a college share of 0.4 and a median age of 37.2.
Republican incumbent Roger Marshall, elected in 2020 with 53.2% and a winning margin of 11.4%, seeks a second term. He won the August 4 primary 79.9% to 20.1% over Arch Naramore, who then endorsed the Democrat. The Democratic nominee is Adam Hamilton, pastor and founder of the Church of the Resurrection, who won with 34.9% in a field that included Christy Davis and Noah Taylor. A Libertarian, David Graham, is also standing. A campaign issue is the New York Times report that Marshall, as an OB/GYN, sued over 700 patients, with at least 81 arrested at his lawyers' request. As of July 15, 2026 Marshall had raised $6,205,622 with $5,388,078 on hand; Hamilton $4,169,078 with $1,730,621 on hand.
Eight raters list the race as R; The Economist and RealClearPolitics list it as Tossup. Recent polls are close: Wedgewood Polls (September 22–24) had Hamilton 50%, Marshall 48%; Emerson College (September 15–16) Hamilton 45%, Marshall 43%; co/efficient (R) (September 8–10) Marshall 49%, Hamilton 44%. The text's polling average is Marshall 46.4%, Hamilton 45.6%.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
Republican incumbent Roger Marshall is seeking a second term.
Republican incumbent Roger Marshall is seeking a second term.
He is being challenged by Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton.
Roger Marshall, incumbent U.S. senator (2021–present)
Adam Hamilton, pastor and founder of the Church of the Resurrection (initially formed exploratory committee as an independent)
Roger Marshall's history of suing over 700 of his patients for unpaid bills while he worked as an OB/GYN in Kansas
U.S. senator Roger Marshall was elected in 2020 with 53.2% of the vote, winning by 11.4% despite expectations of a close race.
In the August 4 primary elections, Marshall won the Republican nomination against minimal opposition. Hamilton won the Democratic nomination with 34.9% of the vote
Decision Desk HQ R September 25, 2026 The Economist Tossup September 26, 2026
Adam Hamilton (D) $4,169,078 $2,438,457 $1,730,621
Wedgewood Polls September 22–24, 2026 500 (LV) ±4.4% 48% | 50%
Average |46.4% 45.6% 8.0% |Marshall +0.8%
The New York Times reported that in at least 81 cases, patients were arrested at the request of Marshall's lawyers for failure to appear in court for their unpaid debts.
Arch Naramore, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2004 (endorsed Hamilton in general election)
party: Libertarian Party (United States) candidate: David Graham
September 12, 2026 WIBW Kansas Radio Networks Michael Schwanke
Not in the source: The Democratic primary results table is truncated; only Hamilton's 34.9% is given, not the other candidates' shares.; The forecast rows carry no basis field, so the text cannot say whether the model uses the statewide polls listed here.; facts.candidates marks Marshall as incumbent: false, but the text names him the Republican incumbent.; No presidential results for Kansas are given in the text.; Libertarian David Graham appears in the text but not in facts.candidates.
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 565f0ad540c1; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
Jerry Moran (Republican), in this chamber since 2011, 3 terms, class 3 (term ends 2029). Committees: Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry; Senate Committee on Appropriations; Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation; Senate Committee on Indian Affairs; Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs (Chairman); Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
Roger Marshall (Republican), in this chamber since 2021, 1 term, class 2 (term ends 2027). Committees: Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry; Senate Committee on Finance; Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions; Senate Committee on the Budget.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton, Adam (DEM) challenger | $4,169,078 | $1,730,621 | 0% | 1% | $0 | $0 |
| Marshall, Roger W (REP) incumbent | $4,009,075 | $5,388,078 | 37% | 0% | $250,062 | $0 |
| Spidel Neumann, Sandy (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $410,527 | $160,609 | 0% | 74% | $0 | $0 |
| Schmidt, Patrick (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $256,046 | $5,027 | 7% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Murray, Erik (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $212,503 | $12,495 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Davis, Christy (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $194,388 | $85,910 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Taylor, Noah (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $161,738 | $13,342 | 9% | 2% | $2,666,662 | $0 |
| Hart, Jason (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $51,403 | $547 | 0% | 66% | $0 | $0 |
| Latz, Kevin (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $39,880 | $75,210 | 0% | 75% | $0 | $0 |
| Parelkar, Lois Anne Elizabeth Lea (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $32,725 | $2,649 | 0% | 31% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through July 19, 2026; $2,916,724 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+22.2 | R+15.1 | R+16.4 |
A shift of 5.8 points toward the Democrats from 2016 to 2024. county returns summed; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
The state in numbers
| Measure | State | Average state | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+, 2023 | 35.2% | 34.0% | +1.2 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 73.4% | 66.3% | +7.1 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 5.3% | 10.1% | -4.8 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino, 2023 | 13.3% | 12.9% | +0.4 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 2.9% | 4.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Foreign-born, 2023 | 7.2% | 9.6% | -2.4 pts |
| Median age, 2023 | 37.2 | 39.1 | -1.88 |
| Median household income, 2023 | $72,639 | $77,633 | $-4,994 |
| Median home value, 2023 | $203,400 | $314,132 | $-110,732 |
| Owner-occupied homes, 2023 | 66.9% | 67.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Unemployment (ACS), 2023 | 3.9% | 4.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Federal government workers, 2023 | 2.6% | 3.0% | -0.4 pts |
| Work from home, 2023 | 10.7% | 12.3% | -1.6 pts |
| Households on SNAP, 2023 | 7.0% | 11.1% | -4.1 pts |
| Households with Social Security income, 2023 | 30.7% | 32.1% | -1.4 pts |
| Households with public assistance income, 2023 | 1.8% | 2.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year, 2023 | 3.1% | 2.9% | +0.3 pts |
| Gini index, 2023 | 0.46 | 0.47 | -0.01 |
| Unemployment, latest month (BLS), 2026-07 | 4.2% | 4.0% | +0.2 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months, 2026-07 | -0.1 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.1 pts |
| Change since the last election (24 months), 2026-07 | -0.1 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.0 pts |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $65,856 | $70,662 | $-4,806 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 26.3% | 32.4% | -6.1 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 18.2% | 19.4% | -1.2 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 6.2% | 6.1% | +0.1 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 4.2% | 4.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 2.6% | 3.8% | -1.2 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.3% | 0.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.0 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 0.8% | 0.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.3% | 1.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.6% | 1.2% | +0.5 pts |
ACS 5-year state tables; BLS county unemployment and BEA county income, transfers and jobs summed to the state. Every figure is a named column of a named public-domain table, archived before it was read.
Who is ahead, and by how much?
Two numbers because they answer two questions. The nowcast is where opinion stands; the election-day forecast is where it is likely to end up.
How likely is each to win?
Monte Carlo error is ±0.2 points. A change smaller than that is simulation noise rather than news, and this page will not describe it as movement.
How wide is the range?
Nowcast: 90% of simulations fall between -13.2 and +6.1 points. Election day: -16.4 to +6.8. The election-day interval is 3.9 points wider, which is the 33 days of movement still to come.
What is the uncertainty made of?
Total sd 7.33 points, made of race-specific polling error 46%, drift to election day 30%, latent opinion 13%, correlated polling error 11%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
What evidence is this built on?
7 polls, most recent 2026-09-24. 33% verified against a primary source.
What changed since the last run?
Shaded band is the 90% interval, line is the central estimate, positive is Adam Hamilton ahead of David Graham. Over 18 stored forecasts the central estimate moved -2.7 points. There were 7 specification changes (marked on the axis) and 1 new poll arrived over this window — so the movement mixes new evidence with changes to the model.
Since 2026-10-01: margin +0.00 points, win probability +0.0 points, on +0 polls. Of that, +0.00 points came from +0 poll(s), -0.00 from the shorter horizon, and +0.00 from the model specification.
How has this model done before?
Measured on 230 forecasts across 230 races in cycles 2016,2018,2020,2022,2024: mean absolute error 4.56 points, Brier score 0.0543. The nominal 90% interval contained the result 94% of the time, the 80% interval 84%, and the 50% interval 47%. Read that with care: a national polling miss moves every race in a cycle at once, so the sample size for a question about the intervals is 5 cycle(s), not 230 forecasts. Per cycle -- bias +1.644 pts; 2016: n=43 bias=+4.68 cov90=0.860; 2018: n=63 bias=-0.52 cov90=1.000; 2020: n=35 bias=+5.44 cov90=0.886; 2022: n=54 bias=-0.60 cov90=0.944; 2024: n=35 bias=+1.48 cov90=1.000.
Where did every number come from?
Nowcast run 33663098-b1d2-4a87-a10c-b42f2ba658b2 and election-day run a397998c-21c3-4838-b648-759e84981c20, model single_race_latent/0.8.1 at commit bdf7e83107c17a2399efe61a44ef1bbee48f9284, seeds 20260924 and 20260924.