Indiana House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
<1%chance of a Democratic majority
>99%chance of a Republican majority
51seats for a majority, of 100
100 of 100 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 31 seats after November (80% range 29–35) and Republicans 69 (65–71). In 3 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Carolyn B. Jackson (D) | official | |
| 2 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Earl Harris, Jr. (D) | official | |
| 3 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ragen Hatcher (D) | official | |
| 4 | Forecast | Ryan Kominakis (D), Travis Gearhart (Libertarian), Ed Soliday (R) | 1% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Alex Wait (D), Dale DeVon (R) | 15% | official |
| 6 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Maureen Bauer (D) | official | |
| 7 | Forecast | Oliver Davis (D), Jake Teshka (R) | 6% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Ryan M Dvorak (D), Eric Harris (R) | 99% | official |
| 9 | Forecast | Randy Novak (D), Chris Cleveland (R) | 86% | official |
| 10 | Forecast | Charles Chuck Moseley (D), Ted Uzelac (R) | 90% | official |
| 11 | Forecast | Tyler Thomas Bridges (D), Michael J. Aylesworth (R) | 3% | official |
| 12 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mike Andrade (D) | official | |
| 13 | Forecast | Brenna Geswein (D), Matt Commons (R), Ben Davis (Socialist Party of Indiana) | <1% | official |
| 14 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Vernon G. Smith (D) | official | |
| 15 | Forecast | Anthony Oberman (D), Hal Slager (R) | 1% | official |
| 16 | Forecast | Ashley Hammac (D), Kendell Culp (R) | <1% | official |
| 17 | Forecast | Mary E. Gibson (D), Jack Jordan (R) | 3% | official |
| 18 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David H. Abbott (R) | official | |
| 19 | Forecast | Nick Neal (D), Julie Olthoff (R) | 5% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Laura Liskey (D), Jim Pressel (R) | 4% | official |
| 21 | Forecast | Charles Burkley (D), Timothy Wesco (R) | 4% | official |
| 22 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Craig Snow (R) | official | |
| 23 | Forecast | Austin D. Meives (D), Ethan Manning (R) | <1% | official |
| 24 | Forecast | Racheal Bleicher (D), Hunter Smith (R) | 9% | official |
| 25 | Forecast | Tiffany Stoner (D), Becky Cash (R) | 43% | official |
| 26 | Forecast | Chris Campbell (D), Magdalaine Davis (R) | >99% | official |
| 27 | Forecast | Sheila J. Klinker (D), Tracy Brown (R) | 97% | official |
| 28 | Forecast | Karen Whitney (D), Jeffrey A. Thompson (R) | <1% | official |
| 29 | Forecast | Devon Wellington (D), Alaina Shonkwiler (R) | 1% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | Jack Chance (D), Paula Davis (R) | <1% | official |
| 31 | Forecast | Katie Robins (D), Lori J. Goss-Reaves (R) | 3% | official |
| 32 | Forecast | Victoria Garcia Wilburn (D), Paul G. Nix (R) | 90% | official |
| 33 | Forecast | John E Bartlett (D), John (J.d.) Prescott (R) | <1% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | Sara Gullion (D), Richard M. (Rich) Ivy (R) | 92% | official |
| 35 | Forecast | Phil G. Gift (D), Elizabeth Rowray (R) | <1% | official |
| 36 | Forecast | Kimberly (Kim) Townsend (D), Kyle Pierce (R) | 3% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Lauren S. Cole (D), Todd Huston (R) | 6% | official |
| 38 | Forecast | Nate Stout (D), Heath R. VanNatter (R) | <1% | official |
| 39 | Forecast | Lindsay Gramlich (D), Danny Lopez (R) | 20% | official |
| 40 | Forecast | William Colteryahn (D), Gregory E. Steuerwald (R) | 4% | official |
| 41 | Forecast | Jackson T. Hayes (D), Mark Genda (R) | <1% | official |
| 42 | Forecast | Brandi Vandivier (D), Tim R. Yocum (R) | 2% | official |
| 43 | Forecast | Tonya Pfaff (D), Amy Lore (R) | 98% | official |
| 44 | Forecast | Kelsey Kauffman (D), Beau Baird (R) | 3% | official |
| 45 | Forecast | Rebecca Dawn (Becky) Mayfield (D), Kellie E. Streeter (R) | 3% | official |
| 46 | Forecast | James H. Pittsford (Jimmy), III (D), Bob Heaton (R) | <1% | official |
| 47 | Forecast | Michael E Potter (D), Robb Greene (R) | <1% | official |
| 48 | Forecast | Emily Yaw (D), Marshall Travis (Green), Doug Miller (R) | 4% | official |
| 49 | Forecast | Michelle Milne (D), Joanna King (R) | 4% | official |
| 50 | Forecast | Pepper Snyder (D), Lorissa C. Sweet (R) | <1% | official |
| 51 | Forecast | Judy Rowe (D), Tony Isa (R) | <1% | official |
| 52 | Forecast | Joseph Trost (D), Ben Smaltz (R) | <1% | official |
| 53 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ethan J. Lawson (R) | official | |
| 54 | Forecast | Nan Polk (D), Cory Criswell (R) | 2% | official |
| 55 | Forecast | Victoria C. Martz (D), Lindsay Patterson (R) | <1% | official |
| 56 | Forecast | Thomas Scott Rockwell (D), Randy Retter (R) | 5% | official |
| 57 | Forecast | Suzanne Fortenberry (D), Wes Bennett (R) | 5% | official |
| 58 | Forecast | Michelle Hennessee Sears (D), John Reed (R) | <1% | official |
| 59 | Forecast | Josh Burbrink (D), Ryan Lauer (R) | 1% | official |
| 60 | Forecast | Carrie L. Syczylo (D), Peggy Mayfield (R) | <1% | official |
| 61 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Matt Pierce (D) | official | |
| 62 | Forecast | Amy Huffman Oliver (D), Dave Hall (R) | 13% | official |
| 63 | Forecast | Tiffanie Arthur (D), Amy Kippenbrock (R) | <1% | official |
| 64 | Forecast | Candace (Candy) Greer (D), Matt Hostettler (R) | 3% | official |
| 65 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Sean S. Steele (independent), Chris D. May (R) | official | |
| 66 | Forecast | Ryan Price (D), Zach Payne (R) | <1% | official |
| 67 | Forecast | Justin Chadwick (D), Alex Zimmerman (R) | 2% | official |
| 68 | Forecast | Hunter B Collins (D), Garrett R. Bascom (R) | <1% | official |
| 69 | Forecast | Chris Bowen (D), Tyler J. Henkle (independent), Jim Lucas (R) | <1% | official |
| 70 | Forecast | Sarah Blessing (D), Brandi Tibben (Libertarian), Scott L. Fluhr (R) | <1% | official |
| 71 | Forecast | Wendy Dant Chesser (D), James R. McClure, Jr. (R) | 88% | official |
| 72 | Forecast | Michele (Shelly) Henry (D), Darrell Neeley (R) | 13% | official |
| 73 | Forecast | Allen J. (A.j.) Miller (D), Jennifer Meltzer (R) | <1% | official |
| 74 | Forecast | Lena Goffinet (D), Stephen R. Bartels (R) | <1% | official |
| 75 | Forecast | Mason Barclay (D), Cindy Ledbetter (R) | 3% | official |
| 76 | Forecast | Logan A. Patberg (D), Wendy (Mac) McNamara (R) | 4% | official |
| 77 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Alex Burton (D) | official | |
| 78 | Forecast | Sally Busby (D), Tim O'Brien (R) | 5% | official |
| 79 | Forecast | Ian G. Richardson (D), Matthew S. Lehman (R) | 2% | official |
| 80 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Phil GiaQuinta (D) | official | |
| 81 | Forecast | Sharon L Wight (D), Martin Carbaugh (R) | <1% | official |
| 82 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kyle Miller (D) | official | |
| 83 | Forecast | Wesley Haffenden (D), Christopher Judy (R) | 1% | official |
| 84 | Forecast | Misti Meehan (D), Bob Morris (R) | 6% | official |
| 85 | Forecast | Mark (Bird) Wehrle (D), Dave Heine (R) | <1% | official |
| 86 | Forecast | Edward O. DeLaney (D), Glenn Bill (R) | 99% | official |
| 87 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Carey Hamilton (D) | official | |
| 88 | Forecast | Stephanie Jo Yocum (D), Chris Jeter (R) | 5% | official |
| 89 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Mitch Gore (D), Donald Weingarten (Libertarian) | official | |
| 90 | Forecast | David Lawrence Boyd (D), Andrew Ireland (R) | 1% | official |
| 91 | Forecast | Jarren Hurt (D), Robert W. Behning (R) | 2% | official |
| 92 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Reneé Pack (D) | official | |
| 93 | Forecast | Eva M. Rosberg (D), Julie McGuire (R) | 1% | official |
| 94 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Cherrish S Pryor (D) | official | |
| 95 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John L. Bartlett (D) | official | |
| 96 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gregory W. Porter (D) | official | |
| 97 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Justin Moed (D), Mark A Renholzberger (Libertarian) | official | |
| 98 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Robin Shackleford (D) | official | |
| 99 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Vanessa J Summers (D) | official | |
| 100 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Blake Johnson (D) | official |