Arkansas Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
18 of 35 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 7 seats after November (80% range 6–8) and Republicans 28 (27–29). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Tomeka Butler (D), Harrell Wilson (R) | 5% | news guide |
| 2 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Matt Stone (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 4 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 5 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 6 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 7 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Alan Clark (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 8 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 9 | Forecast | Jessie McGruder (D), Kenneth Phillips (R) | 87% | news guide |
| 10 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ronald Caldwell (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 11 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ricky Hill (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 12 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 13 | Forecast | Brandon Achor (R), Allison Grigsby Sweatman (D) | 34% | news guide |
| 14 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Mark Foster (Libertarian), Clarke Tucker (D) | news guide | |
| 15 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tara Shephard (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 16 | Forecast | Joshua Irby (D), Rodney Wright (R) | 7% | news guide |
| 17 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 18 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 19 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 20 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 21 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jeremy Wooldridge (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 22 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 23 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 24 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Missy Thomas Irvin (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 25 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 26 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 27 | Forecast | Justin Boyd (R), Eduardo Guzman (D) | 91% | news guide |
| 28 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Bryan B. King (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 29 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 30 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Denise Garner (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 31 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Clint Penzo (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 32 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Joshua P. Bryant (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 33 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 34 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 35 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tyler Dees (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |