Idaho Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
35 of 35 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 6 seats after November (80% range 5–8) and Republicans 29 (27–30).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Scott Herndon (R) | official | |
| 2 | Forecast | Valerie Wade (D), Phil Hart (R) | <1% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | Brian Seguin (D), Doug "Doug O" Okuniewicz (R) | <1% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | Carissa Brewer (D), Ben Toews (R) | <1% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Adam Chapman (D), Carl J Bjerke (R) | <1% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Robin Weldy (D), Dan Foreman (R) | 12% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Patrice Yeatter (D), Cindy Carlson (R) | <1% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | John H Garrett (D), Christy Zito (R) | <1% | official |
| 9 | Forecast | Janice Martell (D), Brandon Shippy (R) | <1% | official |
| 10 | Forecast | Nancy M Parker (D), Tammy Nichols (R) | <1% | official |
| 11 | Forecast | Susan Counsil (D), Camille Blaylock (R) | <1% | official |
| 12 | Forecast | Krystal Flippence (D), Ben Adams (R) | 4% | official |
| 13 | Forecast | Letishia Silva (D), Brian Lenney (R) | <1% | official |
| 14 | Decided: only a Republican is running | C. Scott Grow (R) | official | |
| 15 | Forecast | Desi Burbank (R), Nancy Gregory (D) | 34% | official |
| 16 | Forecast | Soñia Galaviz (D), Geoffrey Surbeck (R) | 96% | official |
| 17 | Forecast | Carrie Semmelroth (D), Benjamin Chafetz (R) | 97% | official |
| 18 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Janie Ward-Engelking (D) | official | |
| 19 | Forecast | Melissa Wintrow (D), Melissa J. Christian (R) | 99% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Pamela Renee Wilson (D), Josh Keyser (R) | <1% | official |
| 21 | Forecast | Brenda H. Quick (D), Treg A. Bernt (R) | 5% | official |
| 22 | Forecast | Karlie Easley (D), Lori Den Hartog (R) | <1% | official |
| 23 | Forecast | Paul Morgan (D), Todd Lakey (R) | <1% | official |
| 24 | Forecast | Mary Jo Durfee (D), Brent D Reinke (R) | <1% | official |
| 25 | Forecast | W. Lane Startin (D), Casey Swensen (R) | 5% | official |
| 26 | Forecast | Ron Taylor (D), Bryan Hyde (R) | 74% | official |
| 27 | Forecast | Margo Saunders (D), Kelly Arthur Anthon (R) | 2% | official |
| 28 | Forecast | Mandy Peace (D), Jim Guthrie (R) | <1% | official |
| 29 | Forecast | James D. Ruchti (D), John Crowder (R) | 98% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | Joni Lin Sorensen (D), Julie VanOrden (R) | <1% | official |
| 31 | Forecast | Kevin Gerrard (D), Van T. Burtenshaw (R) | <1% | official |
| 32 | Forecast | Konnor Whitfield (D), Kevin J Cook (R) | 3% | official |
| 33 | Forecast | Jan Brown (D), Dave Lent (R) | 5% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | Ethan Sanford (D), Doug Ricks (R) | <1% | official |
| 35 | Forecast | Marty Rotz Kilhefner (D), Mark Harris (R) | <1% | official |