HI-1 · House

The district, in brief

Hawaii's 1st district is located entirely on the island of Oahu, centering on Honolulu and the towns of Aiea, Mililani, Pearl City, Waipahu and Waimalu. The facts record no redraw for this cycle; the lines are the map first used in 2022.

The incumbent is Democrat Ed Case, re-elected with 71.8% of the vote in 2024. He won the Democratic primary with 58.5% over Jarrett Keohokalole, state senator from the 24th district since 2018, at 37.4%; three other Democrats took under 3% each, and state representative Della Au Belatti withdrew on May 28, 2026 to run for Lieutenant Governor. Primary polls were sponsored by Keohokalole's campaign: Blueprint Polling (July 24, 2026, 278 likely voters) had Keohokalole 47%, Case 38%, and an earlier Blueprint poll (July 7–8, 2026) had Case 33%, Keohokalole 25%, 42% undecided; Data for Progress (October 6–14, 2025) had Case 40%, Belatti 16%, Keohokalole 12%. As of July 19, 2026 Case had raised $1,093,795 with $599,649 on hand; Keohokalole had raised $963,458 with $81,387 on hand. The Republican nominee is Adriel Lam, unopposed in his primary with 100.0%; the text gives no background for him. Independent Nathan Berning and Green nominee Jordan Conley are also standing.

Every rater listed calls the seat D: Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report (February 6, 2025), Inside Elections (March 7, 2025), Sabato's Crystal Ball (July 15, 2025) and Silver Bulletin (August 20, 2026). No general-election polls or general fundraising table appear.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: The text gives no background for the Republican nominee, Adriel Lam.; No general-election fundraising table and no general-election polls appear; the only polls are Democratic primary polls, and the model's basis says no district polls.; The text gives no presidential result for the district; only the facts carry a presidential baseline.; The Endorsements section is empty.; facts.candidates marks no candidate as incumbent; the text does, and it omits the independent and Green candidates.

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as a3347ff6efc3; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

Who holds the seat now

Ed Case (Democrat), in this chamber since 2003, 6 terms. Committees: House Committee on Appropriations.

From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 10.0 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

The money

FEC bulk candidate summaries through August 28, 2026; $463 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.

The district in numbers

ACS 5-year 2023, the Census Bureau's own tabulation of this district (118th Congress lines). Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.

Who is favoured, and by how much?

The 90% interval runs from +25.5 to +52.8 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.

What is this built on?

A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.

Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.

Why does the model say this?

Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 presidential lean (D+26.7): 20.2 pts toward the Democrat; 2024 House lean (D+46.4): 11.0 pts toward the Democrat; experience gap (+4 levels, D minus R): 8.3 pts toward the Democrat; PAC money balance: 7.5 pts toward the Democrat; 2022 House lean (D+49.8): 1.0 pts toward the Democrat.

How sure is it, and of what?

Total sd 8.34 points, made of the seat's own volatility 91%, correlated polling error 9%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.

How was this number made?

Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).