Alaska · Senate
election 2026-11-03 · forecast as of 2026-10-01 · margins and probabilities are for Mary Peltola
Who is running?
Mary Peltola (Democratic), Dan S. Sullivan (Republican), Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (Republican), Gerald L. Heikes (Republican). The margin below is Mary Peltola minus the other candidate in the main contest; the rest are on the ballot and not in it.
The race, in brief
Alaska elects a U.S. senator on November 3, 2026, under ranked-choice voting after a nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18. The text notes Democrats have not won a Senate election in Alaska since 2008. The state profile records a median age of 35.6 and a white non-Hispanic share of 0.6.
Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan, first elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2020, is seeking a third term against Democrat Mary Peltola, the former at-large U.S. representative (2022–2025). In the primary Peltola took 49.5% and Sullivan 41.4%; also advancing are Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., an unrelated former Forest Service employee whose ballot place was upheld by the Alaska Supreme Court, and Gerald Heikes, who advanced after Democrat David Leslie withdrew. Lisa Murkowski endorses Sullivan. As of July 29, 2026 Peltola had raised $18,545,132 with $4,636,755 on hand, Sullivan $11,735,898 with $7,295,069 on hand. On September 23 The New York Times published aides' allegations about Peltola's conduct, which her campaign disputes in part.
Raters listed: Cook, The Economist, Fox News, RealClearPolitics, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Silver Bulletin say Tossup; Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne and Split Ticket say flip; Inside Elections says R. The text's polling average is Peltola 49.5%, Sullivan 47.6%. Recent polls include Trafalgar Group (R), September 22–24, 2026, Sullivan 47%, Peltola 46%; co/efficient (R), September 14–17, Sullivan 48%, Peltola 46%; and Alaska Survey Research, September 10–12, Peltola 52%, Sullivan 48% in the final ranked round.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan is seeking a third term. He is being challenged by Democratic former congresswoman Mary Peltola.
Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan is seeking a third term.
Mary Peltola, former U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district (2022–2025)
Dan S. Sullivan, incumbent U.S. senator
Peltola narrowly lost her congressional seat in 2024, and had considered running for either Senate or governor
He was first elected in 2014, defeating Mark Begich, the most recent Democrat to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate. He was last re-elected in 2020
Democrats have not won a Senate election in Alaska since 2008.
Peltola and Sullivan were the first to advance with 49.5% and 41.4% of the vote respectively
The Cook Political Report Tossup September 23, 2026 Decision Desk HQ Flip September 29, 2026
|Mary Peltola (D) $18,545,132 $13,908,377 $4,636,755
Average 47.6% |49.5% 2.9% |Peltola +1.9%
Trafalgar Group (R) September 22–24, 2026 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% |47% 46%
On July 2nd the Alaska Supreme Court affirmed the decision, ordering Sullivan's name to be listed on the August 18th primary ballot.
On September 23, The New York Times published allegations from anonymous aides who had worked for Peltola's congressional office and Senate campaign.
had endorsed Peltola in her 2022 and 2024 bids for U.S. House, but she endorsed Sullivan in this race instead
A similar group called Right for Alaska spent $1.2 million promoting Republican Gerald Heikes and Alaskan Party candidate Earl "Skip" Southworth
Not in the source: facts.forecast rows have no basis field, so the input does not say whether the model used these polls.; facts.candidates marks Dan S. Sullivan as incumbent: false, which contradicts the text; the other two advancing candidates (Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., Gerald Heikes) are not in facts.candidates.; The text's endorsement sections are empty apart from the Murkowski mention.; No general-election results yet; the pending Alaska Supreme Court matter referred to in the text is garbled ('which 27 is expected to advance').
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as e985e89c1274; written by claude-opus-5-5 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
Lisa Murkowski (Republican), in this chamber since 2003, 5 terms, class 3 (term ends 2029). Committees: Senate Committee on Appropriations; Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources; Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions; Senate Committee on Indian Affairs (Chairman).
Dan Sullivan (Republican), in this chamber since 2015, 2 terms, class 2 (term ends 2027). Committees: Senate Committee on Armed Services; Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation; Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works; Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peltola, Mary (DEM) challenger | $18,545,132 | $4,636,755 | 3% | 0% | $373,196 | $3,040,543 |
| Sullivan, Dan (REP) incumbent | $9,136,967 | $7,295,069 | 21% | 0% | $1,320,563 | $2,211,296 |
| Sullivan, Daniel J (REP) challenger | $18,835 | $8,400 | 0% | 55% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through July 29, 2026; $6,945,598 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+16.9 | R+10.6 | R+19.7 |
A shift of 2.8 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns summed; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
The state in numbers
| Measure | State | Average state | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+, 2023 | 31.2% | 34.0% | -2.8 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 58.3% | 66.3% | -7.9 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 3.0% | 10.1% | -7.1 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino, 2023 | 7.1% | 12.9% | -5.7 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 6.3% | 4.4% | +2.0 pts |
| Foreign-born, 2023 | 7.8% | 9.6% | -1.8 pts |
| Median age, 2023 | 35.6 | 39.1 | -3.48 |
| Median household income, 2023 | $89,336 | $77,633 | $+11,703 |
| Median home value, 2023 | $333,300 | $314,132 | $+19,168 |
| Owner-occupied homes, 2023 | 66.6% | 67.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Unemployment (ACS), 2023 | 5.8% | 4.8% | +1.0 pts |
| Federal government workers, 2023 | 6.5% | 3.0% | +3.5 pts |
| Work from home, 2023 | 8.8% | 12.3% | -3.5 pts |
| Households on SNAP, 2023 | 10.2% | 11.1% | -0.9 pts |
| Households with Social Security income, 2023 | 25.2% | 32.1% | -6.9 pts |
| Households with public assistance income, 2023 | 6.1% | 2.6% | +3.5 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year, 2023 | 4.1% | 2.9% | +1.2 pts |
| Gini index, 2023 | 0.43 | 0.47 | -0.03 |
| Unemployment, latest month (BLS), 2026-07 | 3.7% | 4.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months, 2026-07 | -0.4 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| Change since the last election (24 months), 2026-07 | -0.5 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.4 pts |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $76,234 | $70,662 | $+5,572 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 26.0% | 32.4% | -6.4 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 19.5% | 19.4% | +0.1 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 4.0% | 6.1% | -2.1 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 2.8% | 4.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 4.9% | 3.8% | +1.1 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.7% | 0.6% | +0.1 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 1.5% | 0.9% | +0.6 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 3.3% | 1.5% | +1.8 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 6.0% | 1.2% | +4.9 pts |
ACS 5-year state tables; BLS county unemployment and BEA county income, transfers and jobs summed to the state. Every figure is a named column of a named public-domain table, archived before it was read.
Who is ahead, and by how much?
Two numbers because they answer two questions. The nowcast is where opinion stands; the election-day forecast is where it is likely to end up.
How likely is each to win?
Monte Carlo error is ±0.2 points. A change smaller than that is simulation noise rather than news, and this page will not describe it as movement.
How wide is the range?
Nowcast: 90% of simulations fall between -8.2 and +9.8 points. Election day: -13.1 to +8.9. The election-day interval is 4.0 points wider, which is the 33 days of movement still to come.
What is the uncertainty made of?
Total sd 7.02 points, made of race-specific polling error 50%, drift to election day 33%, correlated polling error 12%, latent opinion 5%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
What evidence is this built on?
20 polls, most recent 2026-09-17. 32% verified against a primary source.
What changed since the last run?
Shaded band is the 90% interval, line is the central estimate, positive is Mary Peltola ahead of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.. Over 18 stored forecasts the central estimate moved -4.6 points. There were 7 specification changes (marked on the axis) and no new polls arrived over this window — so every movement in this chart is a change to the model, not a change in the race.
Since 2026-10-01: margin +0.00 points, win probability +0.0 points, on +0 polls.
Not answered here: why it changed. Splitting a move into new polls, time and specification means re-running the earlier model against the later inputs -- two extra posterior fits -- so it is computed on a cadence (scripts/attribute_forecasts.py) rather than while you wait. This pair of runs has not been decomposed yet. The size of the move is shown; the cause is not guessed at.
How has this model done before?
Measured on 230 forecasts across 230 races in cycles 2016,2018,2020,2022,2024: mean absolute error 4.56 points, Brier score 0.0543. The nominal 90% interval contained the result 94% of the time, the 80% interval 84%, and the 50% interval 47%. Read that with care: a national polling miss moves every race in a cycle at once, so the sample size for a question about the intervals is 5 cycle(s), not 230 forecasts. Per cycle -- bias +1.644 pts; 2016: n=43 bias=+4.68 cov90=0.860; 2018: n=63 bias=-0.52 cov90=1.000; 2020: n=35 bias=+5.44 cov90=0.886; 2022: n=54 bias=-0.60 cov90=0.944; 2024: n=35 bias=+1.48 cov90=1.000.
Where did every number come from?
Nowcast run 90867f50-e27d-48a5-803e-4da66206ba39 and election-day run 15259d7c-9c1e-4183-b458-1f604000e51f, model single_race_latent/0.8.1 at commit bdf7e83107c17a2399efe61a44ef1bbee48f9284, seeds 20260924 and 20260924.