New Mexico House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
70 of 70 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 45 seats after November (80% range 41–48) and Republicans 25 (22–29). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Rod Montoya (R) | wikipedia | |
| 2 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mark Duncan (R) | wikipedia | |
| 3 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Bill Hall (R) | wikipedia | |
| 4 | Forecast | Joseph Franklin Hernandez (D), Heather Scott Ellison (R) | 97% | wikipedia |
| 5 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Doreen Wonda Johnson (D) | wikipedia | |
| 6 | Forecast | Martha Garcia (D), Paul L. Spencer (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 7 | Forecast | Tanya Mirabal Moya (R), Rickie Allen Gonzales II (D) | 3% | wikipedia |
| 8 | Forecast | Brian Baca (R), Katherine Joanna Gauer (D) | 3% | wikipedia |
| 9 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Patricia Lundstrom (D) | wikipedia | |
| 10 | Forecast | G. Andrés Romero (D), Christopher P. Crane (R) | 97% | wikipedia |
| 11 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Javier Martínez (D) | wikipedia | |
| 12 | Forecast | Art De La Cruz (D), Steven E. Tafoya (R) | 98% | wikipedia |
| 13 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Patricia Roybal Caballero (D) | wikipedia | |
| 14 | Forecast | Miguel Garcia (D), Richard Victor Zubia (R) | >99% | wikipedia |
| 15 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Dayan Hochman-Vigil (D) | wikipedia | |
| 16 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Yanira Gurrola (D) | wikipedia | |
| 17 | Forecast | Cynthia Borrego (D), Stacey Deanne Rich (R) | 95% | wikipedia |
| 18 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Marianna Anaya (D) | wikipedia | |
| 19 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Janelle Anyanonu (D) | wikipedia | |
| 20 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Meredith Dixon (D) | wikipedia | |
| 21 | Forecast | Debra M. Sariñana (D), Robert L. Mason (R), Zach Withers (independent) | 98% | wikipedia |
| 22 | Forecast | Stefani Lord (R), Bill Scott (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 23 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Alan Martinez (R) | wikipedia | |
| 24 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Elizabeth Thomson (D) | wikipedia | |
| 25 | Forecast | Cristina Parajón (D), Denis Litvinenko (R) | >99% | wikipedia |
| 26 | Forecast | Eleanor Chávez (D), Corey Rubin Zimmerman (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 27 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Abby Foster (D) | wikipedia | |
| 28 | Forecast | Pamelya Herndon (D), Brenda J. Olson (R) | 90% | wikipedia |
| 29 | Forecast | Joy Garratt (D), Carolyn Stith (R) | 93% | wikipedia |
| 30 | Forecast | Diane Torres-Velásquez (D), Jerry L. Trujillo (R) | 96% | wikipedia |
| 31 | Forecast | Nicole Chavez (R), Ryan Anselm Braid (D) | 13% | wikipedia |
| 32 | Forecast | Jenifer Jones (R), Laura Mairel Parra (D) | 43% | wikipedia |
| 33 | Forecast | Micaela Lara Cadena (D), Enrique Kiki Vigil (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 34 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Raymundo Lara (D) | wikipedia | |
| 35 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Angelica Rubio (D) | wikipedia | |
| 36 | Forecast | Nathan Small (D), Julia E. Ruiz (R) | 90% | wikipedia |
| 37 | Forecast | Lori A. Martinez (D), Isabella Solis (R) | 96% | wikipedia |
| 38 | Forecast | Rebecca Dow (R), David L. Mooney (D) | 52% | wikipedia |
| 39 | Forecast | Luis Terrazas (R), Raul S. Turrieta (D) | 22% | wikipedia |
| 40 | Forecast | Joseph Sanchez (D), Landon McGuire Dooley (R) | >99% | wikipedia |
| 41 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Yolanda "Pancho" Jaramillo (D) | wikipedia | |
| 42 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kristina Ortez (D) | wikipedia | |
| 43 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Christine Chandler (D) | wikipedia | |
| 44 | Forecast | Kathleen Cates (D), Adam Stanley Prior (R) | 85% | wikipedia |
| 45 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Linda Serrato (D) | wikipedia | |
| 46 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Andrea Romero (D) | wikipedia | |
| 47 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Reena Szczepanski (D) | wikipedia | |
| 48 | Forecast | Tara Lujan (D), Victoria May Garcia (R) | 97% | wikipedia |
| 49 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Gail Armstrong (R) | wikipedia | |
| 50 | Forecast | Sarah Boses (D), Kenneth Donald Brennan (R) | 95% | wikipedia |
| 51 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | John Block (R), Zach Withers (independent) | wikipedia | |
| 52 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Doreen Gallegos (D) | wikipedia | |
| 53 | Forecast | Sarah Silva (D), Ben Luna Jr. (R) | 85% | wikipedia |
| 54 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jonathan Henry (R) | wikipedia | |
| 55 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cathrynn Brown (R) | wikipedia | |
| 56 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Harlan Vincent (R) | wikipedia | |
| 57 | Forecast | Catherine Cullen (R), Chriselle Verene Martinez (D) | 32% | wikipedia |
| 58 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Angelita Mejia (R) | wikipedia | |
| 59 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Stephen Ryan Dodson (R) | wikipedia | |
| 60 | Forecast | Joshua Hernandez (R), Luke Nicholas Jungmann (D) | 4% | wikipedia |
| 61 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Randall Pettigrew (R) | wikipedia | |
| 62 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Elaine Sena Cortez (R) | wikipedia | |
| 63 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Seth H. Martin (R) | wikipedia | |
| 64 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Andrea Reeb (R) | wikipedia | |
| 65 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Derrick Lente (D) | wikipedia | |
| 66 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Leanne Gandy (R) | wikipedia | |
| 67 | Forecast | Jack Chatfield (R), Vincent M. Soule (D) | 4% | wikipedia |
| 68 | Forecast | Charlotte Little (D), David E. Adkins (R) | 81% | wikipedia |
| 69 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michelle Paulene Abeyta (D) | wikipedia | |
| 70 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Anita Gonzales (D) | wikipedia |