Oklahoma House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
<1%chance of a Democratic majority
>99%chance of a Republican majority
51seats for a majority, of 101
101 of 101 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 22 seats after November (80% range 20–25) and Republicans 79 (76–81). In 5 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chris White (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 2 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jim Olsen (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 3 | Forecast | Steve Glinski (D), Rick West (R) | 4% | news guide + filing book |
| 4 | Forecast | Bob Ed Culver (R), Christopher Wier (D) | <1% | news guide + filing book |
| 5 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Josh West (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 6 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Rusty Cornwell (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 7 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Steve Bashore (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 8 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tom Gann (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 9 | Forecast | Andrea Biscardi (D), Scotty Stokes (R) | <1% | news guide + filing book |
| 10 | Forecast | Isaac D Mattox (D), Judd Strom (R) | 4% | news guide + filing book |
| 11 | Decided: only a Republican is running | John B. Kane (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 12 | Forecast | Mark Chapman (R), Tiffany Prater (D) | <1% | news guide + filing book |
| 13 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Neil Hays (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 14 | Forecast | Jeremiah Gantz (D), Chris Sneed (R) | 4% | news guide + filing book |
| 15 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tim Turner (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 16 | Forecast | Rose Rosie Lynch (D), David Nelson (R) | <1% | news guide + filing book |
| 17 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jim Grego (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 18 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David Smith (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 19 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Michael A. Brittingham (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 20 | Forecast | Chris May (D), Jonathan Wilk (R) | <1% | news guide + filing book |
| 21 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cody Maynard (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 22 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ryan Eaves (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 23 | Forecast | Derrick R. Hildebrant (R), Catherine Peters (D) | <1% | news guide + filing book |
| 24 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Chris Banning (R), Joshua Conant (independent) | news guide + filing book | |
| 25 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ronny Johns (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 26 | Forecast | Leah Longest (R), Chris Odneal (D) | 2% | news guide + filing book |
| 27 | Forecast | Danny Sterling (R), Memory Taylor (D) | 4% | news guide + filing book |
| 28 | Forecast | Blake Cummings (D), Danny Williams (R) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 29 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kyle Hilbert (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 30 | Forecast | Sonya Amling (D), Mark Lawson (R) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 31 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Collin Duel (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 32 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Andy Brown (independent), Jim Shaw (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 33 | Forecast | Max E. Burchett Jr. (D), Molly Jenkins (R) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 34 | Forecast | Aaron Means (R), Trish Ranson (D) | 99% | news guide + filing book |
| 35 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Dillon Travis (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 36 | Forecast | John George (R), Leslie Hellebuyck (D) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 37 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Spencer Grace (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 38 | Forecast | Madison Bolay (R), Doyle Lewis (D) | <1% | news guide + filing book |
| 39 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Erick Harris (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 40 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kinsley Jordan (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 41 | Forecast | Mike Bockus (D), Denise Crosswhite Hader (R) | <1% | news guide + filing book |
| 42 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cindy Roe (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 43 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jay Steagall (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 44 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jared Deck (D) | news guide + filing book | |
| 45 | Forecast | Annie Menz (D), Carolyn Womack-Bielich (R) | 96% | news guide + filing book |
| 46 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jacob Rosecrants (D) | news guide + filing book | |
| 47 | Forecast | Indigo Oliver (D), Toby Thompson (R) | 7% | news guide + filing book |
| 48 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tammy Townley (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 49 | Forecast | Josh Cantrell (R), Dusty Jo Jones (D) | 4% | news guide + filing book |
| 50 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Stacy Jo Adams (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 51 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cole Stevens (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 52 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Gerrid Kendrix (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 53 | Forecast | Carroll Asséo (D), Jason Blair (R) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 54 | Forecast | Crystal Abram-Garcia (D), Heath Kufahl (R) | 6% | news guide + filing book |
| 55 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Nick Archer (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 56 | Forecast | Dick Lowe (R), Linda Pedro (D) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 57 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Anthony S. Moore (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 58 | Forecast | Albert Borrie (D), Carl Newton (R) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 59 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mike Dobrinski (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 60 | Forecast | Mike Kelley (R), Sharon K Taylor (D) | 4% | news guide + filing book |
| 61 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kenton Patzkowsky (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 62 | Forecast | Blake Munoz (D), Daniel Pae (R) | 7% | news guide + filing book |
| 63 | Forecast | Trey Caldwell (R), Shykira Smith (D) | <1% | news guide + filing book |
| 64 | Forecast | Louis Jackson (R), Kathy Suttles (D) | 35% | news guide + filing book |
| 65 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Sam Mitchell (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 66 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Kenny Blevins (Libertarian), Clay Staires (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 67 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Rob Hall (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 68 | Forecast | Michelle LaFleur (D), Mike Lay (R) | 4% | news guide + filing book |
| 69 | Forecast | Sheila Dills (R), Tyler Price (D) | 7% | news guide + filing book |
| 70 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Suzanne E. Schreiber (D) | news guide + filing book | |
| 71 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Amanda Clinton (D) | news guide + filing book | |
| 72 | Forecast | Adam Martin (R), Michelle McCane (D) | 97% | news guide + filing book |
| 73 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ron Stewart (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 74 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Aaron Brent (independent), Kevin W. Norwood (R) | news guide + filing book | |
| 75 | Forecast | T. J. Marti (R), Joe Watkins (D) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 76 | Forecast | Ross Ford (R), Michael Tinsley (D) | 4% | news guide + filing book |
| 77 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kristina Gabriel (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 78 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Meloyde Blancett (D), Tony Oliva (independent) | news guide + filing book | |
| 79 | Forecast | Paul Hassink (R), Melissa Provenzano (D) | 96% | news guide + filing book |
| 80 | Forecast | Jeremy Founds (D), Stan May (R) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 81 | Forecast | Megan Hornbeek Allen (D), Troy Talley (R) | 6% | news guide + filing book |
| 82 | Forecast | Travis Headd (D), Nicole Miller (R) | 4% | news guide + filing book |
| 83 | Forecast | Dalton Gau (D), Eric Roberts (R) | 12% | news guide + filing book |
| 84 | Forecast | Jeffrey Perez (D), Tammy West (R) | 5% | news guide + filing book |
| 85 | Forecast | Chelsey Branham (D), Joe Fallin (R) | 99% | news guide + filing book |
| 86 | Forecast | Hannah Cole (D), David Hardin (R) | <1% | news guide + filing book |
| 87 | Forecast | Codey Bartle (R), Ellyn Hefner (D) | >99% | news guide + filing book |
| 88 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ellen Pogemiller (D) | news guide + filing book | |
| 89 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Arturo Alonso (D) | news guide + filing book | |
| 90 | Forecast | Emily Gise (R), Kymberly Ward (D) | <1% | news guide + filing book |
| 91 | Forecast | Chris Fowler (D), Roberto Seda (R) | 7% | news guide + filing book |
| 92 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sam Wargin Grimaldo (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 93 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mickey Dollens (D) | news guide + filing book | |
| 94 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Andy Fugate (D) | news guide + filing book | |
| 95 | Forecast | Ryan Gardner (independent), Tegan Malone (D), Max Wolfley (R) | 19% | news guide + filing book |
| 96 | Forecast | Ashtyn Smith (D), Preston Stinson (R) | 4% | news guide + filing book |
| 97 | Forecast | Austin T Jones (R), Aletia Haynes Timmons (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 98 | Forecast | Cathy Smythe (D), Gabe Woolley (R) | <1% | news guide + filing book |
| 99 | Forecast | Herschel L. Brown (D), Melvin Latham (R) | 95% | news guide + filing book |
| 100 | Forecast | Chaunté Gilmore (D), Marilyn Stark (R) | 40% | news guide + filing book |
| 101 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Robert Manger (R) | news guide + filing book |