Alaska Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
10 of 20 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 8 seats after November (80% range 8–9) and Republicans 11 (10–11). Neither party wins a majority in 11% of the simulations: about 1 seat is expected to go to independents or other parties and the parties can tie at 10 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote. In Alaska a party's majority of seats has not always meant control: both chambers have been run by bipartisan coalitions in recent sessions.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Decided: only a Republican is running | Bert K. Stedman (R) | official | |
| B | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| C | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Carrie L. Harris (R), Heath Smith (R), Louise B. Stutes (R) | official | |
| D | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| E | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Cathy Giessel (R), Gretchen W. Stoddard (R), Jason “Jace” White (R) | official | |
| F | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| G | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Nicholas Danger (nonpartisan, 2%), Elvi Gray-Jackson (D, 98%) | 98% | official |
| H | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| I | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Löki Gale Tobin (D) | official | |
| J | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| K | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Bill Wielechowski (D) | official | |
| L | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| M | Forecast | Ryan Berry (R), Patricia R. Chesbro (D), Cathy L. Tilton (R), Zane Vrvilo (R) | <1% | official |
| N | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| O | Forecast | Peter Bauer (D), George Rauscher (R), Ryan W. Sheldon (R) | 5% | official |
| P | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| Q | Forecast | William Hunt (D), Frank Tomaszewski (R) | 7% | official |
| R | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| S | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Darren Morgan Deacon (R, 8%), Bryce Edgmon (undeclared, 89%), Wassilie P. “Wg” Guy (D, 2%), Richard “Rick” Robb (nonpartisan, <1%) | 2% | official |
| T | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) |