North Carolina House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
10%chance of a Democratic majority
88%chance of a Republican majority
2%chance neither party has a majority
61seats for a majority, of 120
120 of 120 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 52 seats after November (80% range 47–61) and Republicans 68 (59–73). Neither party wins a majority in 2% of the simulations: the parties can tie at 60 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote. In 7 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Miriam Rollin (D), Edward C. Goodwin (R) | <1% | official |
| 2 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ray Jeffers (D) | official | |
| 3 | Forecast | Diannia Bright (D), Steve Tyson (R), Angela Humphries (Libertarian) | 1% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | Jimmy Dixon (R), Vernon Moore (D) | 1% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Sam Davis III (D), Bill Ward (R) | 18% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Tony Spears (D), Joe Pike (R) | 2% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Cory Thornton (R), Mark Speed (D) | 17% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Cathy Thorne Bynum (R), Gloristine Brown (D) | >99% | official |
| 9 | Forecast | Timothy Reeder (R), Claire Kempner (D) | 10% | official |
| 10 | Forecast | John Bell (R), Zyaire Webb (D) | 2% | official |
| 11 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Allison A. Dahle (D), Matthew Kordon (Libertarian) | official | |
| 12 | Forecast | Chris Humphrey (R), Don Hardy (D) | 5% | official |
| 13 | Forecast | Celeste Cairns (R), Jason Moore (D) | <1% | official |
| 14 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Wyatt Gable (R) | official | |
| 15 | Forecast | Phillip Shepard (R), Christopher Schulte (D) | <1% | official |
| 16 | Forecast | Carson Smith (R), Jim Harris (D) | <1% | official |
| 17 | Forecast | Dennis A. Breen (D), Frank Iler (R) | 1% | official |
| 18 | Forecast | Deb Butler (D), Latisha Grady (R) | 98% | official |
| 19 | Forecast | Scott Nasiff (D), Charlie Miller (R) | 1% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Dane Scalise (R), Tim Merrick (D) | 22% | official |
| 21 | Forecast | Ya Liu (D), Bryson Johnson (R) | >99% | official |
| 22 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Wellie Jackson (R) | official | |
| 23 | Forecast | Patricia Smith (D), Brent Roberson (R) | 96% | official |
| 24 | Forecast | Blake Boykin (R), Dante Pittman (D) | 87% | official |
| 25 | Forecast | Allen Chesser (R), Lorenza M. Wilkins (D), Nick Taylor (Libertarian) | 45% | official |
| 26 | Forecast | Donna McDowell White (R), L'Bertrice Solomon (D) | 8% | official |
| 27 | Forecast | David Woodson (R), Rodney D. Pierce (D) | 98% | official |
| 28 | Forecast | D. Matthew Bailey (D), Larry C. Strickland (R) | <1% | official |
| 29 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Vernetta Alston (D) | official | |
| 30 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Ray Ubinger (Libertarian), Marcia Morey (D) | official | |
| 31 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Zack Hawkins (D) | official | |
| 32 | Forecast | Bryan K. Cohn (D), Frank Sossamon (R) | 83% | official |
| 33 | Forecast | Matthew Orr (R), Monika Johnson-Hostler (D) | 99% | official |
| 34 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Tim Longest (D), Ed George (Libertarian) | official | |
| 35 | Forecast | Mike Schietzelt (R), Evonne S. Hopkins (D) | 36% | official |
| 36 | Forecast | Julie von Haefen (D), Mary Insprucker (R) | 98% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Winn Decker (D), Erin Pare (R) | 25% | official |
| 38 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Abe Jones (D) | official | |
| 39 | Forecast | Jorge Cordova (R), Wayne Cockrell (Libertarian), James A. Roberson (D) | 99% | official |
| 40 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Phil Rubin (D), Lucas Everett Jones (Libertarian) | official | |
| 41 | Forecast | Bruce Forster (R), Maria Cervania (D) | 99% | official |
| 42 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mike Colvin (D) | official | |
| 43 | Forecast | Janene Ackles (D), Diane Wheatley (R) | 7% | official |
| 44 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Charles Smith (D) | official | |
| 45 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Frances Jackson (D) | official | |
| 46 | Forecast | Brittany Newton (D), Brenden H. Jones (R) | 3% | official |
| 47 | Forecast | John L. Lowery (R), Eshonda Hooper (D) | 1% | official |
| 48 | Forecast | Ralph Carter (R), Garland E. Pierce (D) | 90% | official |
| 49 | Forecast | Cynthia Ball (D), Daran Thomas (R) | 99% | official |
| 50 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Renee A. Price (D) | official | |
| 51 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Charles M. Taylor (R), April Montgomery (independent) | official | |
| 52 | Forecast | Joe Parfitt (D), Ben Moss (R) | 2% | official |
| 53 | Forecast | Kevin G. Thurman (D), Christopher Sessions (Libertarian), Howard L. Penny, Jr. (R) | 1% | official |
| 54 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Robert T. Reives II (D) | official | |
| 55 | Forecast | Clancy Baucom (R), John J. Kirkpatrick IV (D) | 2% | official |
| 56 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Matthew P. Clements (Libertarian), Allen Buansi (D) | official | |
| 57 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tracy Clark (D) | official | |
| 58 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Amos Quick (D) | official | |
| 59 | Forecast | Alan Branson (R), Elma Hairston (D) | 13% | official |
| 60 | Forecast | Amanda Cook (D), Joseph Perrotta (R) | >99% | official |
| 61 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mary Price (Pricey) Harrison (D) | official | |
| 62 | Forecast | John M. Blust (R), Shelly Headen (D) | 23% | official |
| 63 | Forecast | Ian Baltutis (D), Ryan Moffitt (R) | 27% | official |
| 64 | Forecast | LeVon Barnes (D), Dennis Riddell (R) | 16% | official |
| 65 | Forecast | Seth Woodall (R), Gavin McGaughey (D) | 3% | official |
| 66 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sarah Crawford (D) | official | |
| 67 | Forecast | Jocelyn Torres (D), Cody Huneycutt (R) | <1% | official |
| 68 | Forecast | David Willis (R), Derek Warriner (D) | 1% | official |
| 69 | Forecast | Dean Arp (R), Heidi Sinsley (D) | 1% | official |
| 70 | Forecast | Brian Biggs (R), William (Bill) McCaskill (D) | <1% | official |
| 71 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Kanika Brown (D), Mathew Mena (Green) | official | |
| 72 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Amber M. Baker (D) | official | |
| 73 | Forecast | Jonathan Almond (R), Thomas J. Monks (D) | 25% | official |
| 74 | Forecast | Jeff Zenger (R), Amy Taylor North (D) | 34% | official |
| 75 | Forecast | Jen Wiles (D), Donny C. Lambeth (R) | 7% | official |
| 76 | Forecast | Greg Edds (R), Scott Huffman (D) | 2% | official |
| 77 | Forecast | Julia Howard (R), Sabrina Harris (D) | <1% | official |
| 78 | Forecast | Neal Jackson (R), Matt Holway (D) | <1% | official |
| 79 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Darren Armstrong (R) | official | |
| 80 | Forecast | Sam Watford (R), JacQuez Johnson (D) | <1% | official |
| 81 | Forecast | Dylan R. Tucker (D), Larry W. Potts (R) | <1% | official |
| 82 | Forecast | Brian Echevarria (R), Chris Bishopp (D) | 18% | official |
| 83 | Forecast | Grant Campbell (R), Johnnie Jones (D) | <1% | official |
| 84 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jeffrey C. McNeely (R) | official | |
| 85 | Forecast | Dudley Greene (R), Suzanne Gavenus (D) | <1% | official |
| 86 | Forecast | Hugh Blackwell (R), Wesley E. Hendrix (D) | <1% | official |
| 87 | Forecast | Iris Bender (D), Destin Hall (R) | <1% | official |
| 88 | Forecast | Ray Craig (R), Mary Belk (D) | 99% | official |
| 89 | Forecast | Robert (Spider) Thompson (D), Mitchell Smith Setzer (R) | <1% | official |
| 90 | Forecast | Ken Badgett (D), Dan Kiger (R) | <1% | official |
| 91 | Forecast | Lucille Puckett (D), Kyle Hall (R) | <1% | official |
| 92 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Terry Brown (D) | official | |
| 93 | Forecast | Charlie Wallin (D), Ray Pickett (R) | 8% | official |
| 94 | Forecast | Blair Eddins (R), Andy Warren (D) | <1% | official |
| 95 | Forecast | Richard (Todd) Carver (R), Michael Robinson (D) | 1% | official |
| 96 | Forecast | Jay Adams (R), Park Inglefield (D) | 1% | official |
| 97 | Forecast | Heather Rhyne (R), Greg McBryde (D) | 2% | official |
| 98 | Forecast | John Rhodes (R), Beth Helfrich (D) | 91% | official |
| 99 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Veleria M. Levy (D) | official | |
| 100 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Julia Greenfield (D) | official | |
| 101 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Carolyn G. Logan (D) | official | |
| 102 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Becky Carney (D) | official | |
| 103 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Laura Budd (D) | official | |
| 104 | Forecast | Trina Boyd (R), Brandon Lofton (D) | 98% | official |
| 105 | Forecast | Tricia Ann Cotham (R), Ken McCool (D) | 48% | official |
| 106 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Rodney Sadler (D) | official | |
| 107 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Aisha O. Dew (D) | official | |
| 108 | Forecast | John A. Torbett (R), Sydnie Hutchinson (D) | 1% | official |
| 109 | Forecast | Mark D. Carver (D), Donnie Loftis (R) | 5% | official |
| 110 | Forecast | Caroline Eason (R), Mary Silver (D) | 1% | official |
| 111 | Forecast | Jerry Blake (D), Paul Scott (R) | <1% | official |
| 112 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jordan Lopez (D) | official | |
| 113 | Forecast | John Morgan (D), Jake Johnson (R) | <1% | official |
| 114 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Eric Ager (D) | official | |
| 115 | Forecast | Lindsey Prather (D), Anthony J. Penland (R) | 88% | official |
| 116 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Brian Turner (D) | official | |
| 117 | Forecast | Chelsea Walsh (R), Lynne Russo (D) | 12% | official |
| 118 | Forecast | Danny E. Davis (D), James M. (Jimmy) Rogers (R) | 4% | official |
| 119 | Forecast | Anna Ferguson (R), Mark Burrows (D) | 13% | official |
| 120 | Forecast | Caleb Brown (D), Karl Gillespie (R) | <1% | official |