NY-12 · House

The district, in brief

New York's 12th is entirely in Manhattan, taking in the Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown, Hell's Kitchen, Chelsea, Murray Hill and Gramercy, on the map first used in 2024. The incumbent is Democrat Jerry Nadler, re-elected with 80.6% in 2024, who has served since 1992 and announced on September 2, 2025 that he would not run again.

The Democratic nominee is Micah Lasher, a first-term state assemblymember from the 69th district and a 2016 candidate for the 31st State Senate district. He won a crowded primary that the text calls the second-most expensive House primary in history; the other main candidates were assemblymember Alex Bores, lawyer George Conway and Jack Schlossberg. Lasher had the endorsements of Nadler, Governor Kathy Hochul and Michael Bloomberg. Bores drew spending from OpenAI against him and from Anthropic and Chris Larsen for him. The infobox names Caroline Shinkle as the Republican nominee but the text gives nothing about her.

The text gives no rater calls, no fundraising and no primary results for this district; it says only that the seat is safely Democratic and that primary polling was scattershot. The facts record Nadler's 2024 two-party margin at 61.02 and the district's 2024 presidential two-party margin at 64.9 for the Democrat.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: The text is cut off partway through the Democratic primary endorsements; no Republican primary section, no ratings table, no fundraising table and no general-election section survive.; Nothing about Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle beyond her name in the infobox.; No primary vote totals or percentages are given for the Democratic primary.; No presidential result percentages for the district in the text; only the facts' two-party baseline.; The model's basis says no district polls; the text mentions primary polls but gives no numbers.

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as cfb3d3b04173; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

Who holds the seat now

Jerrold Nadler (Democrat), in this chamber since 1992, 18 terms. Committees: House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure; House Committee on the Judiciary.

From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 14.9 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

Who are the voters?

Of about 574,502 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 86.0% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 86.5% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 0.9 points toward Democrats. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.

Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.

The money

FEC bulk candidate summaries through September 07, 2026; $45,395,616 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.

The district in numbers

ACS 5-year 2023, the Census Bureau's own tabulation of this district (118th Congress lines). Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.

Who is favoured, and by how much?

The 90% interval runs from +59.0 to +88.4 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.

What is this built on?

A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.

Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.

Why does the model say this?

Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 presidential lean (D+66.4): 60.1 pts toward the Democrat; 2024 House lean (D+63.7): 14.2 pts toward the Democrat; experience gap (+2 levels, D minus R): 11.9 pts toward the Democrat; PAC money balance: 8.0 pts toward the Democrat; 2020 presidential lean (D+67.5): 3.8 pts toward the Democrat.

How sure is it, and of what?

Total sd 8.96 points, made of the seat's own volatility 92%, correlated polling error 8%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.

How was this number made?

Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).