Each chamber's election-day forecast and nowcast, the runs behind them, and every polled statewide race
House
Democrats near-certain
98% chance of a Democratic majority
243 Democratic seats expected · 80% range 227–261 · 218 for a majority
Bars are 2 seats wide: the distribution spans 109 seat counts, which is too many to draw one apiece. The line is 218 seats and the shading either side of it is what the control probability is the area of: 98% of simulated elections land at or above 218. Out of 20,000 simulated elections.
No nowcast: districts are not polled, so nothing observes them today. The national environment is current; each district's position is from past results.
Election day · run 4e6dd0c8 · house_ground_up/2.0.0 · as of 2026-10-02
A range, not a point: 4 seats could go to independents whose caucus is not recorded, and a midpoint would be a guess about a person. Why a range?
50 Democratic seats expected · 80% range 46–53 · 51 for a majority
Each bar is one seat. The line is 51 seats and the shading either side of it is what the control probability is the area of: 39% of simulated elections land at or above 51. Out of 50,000 simulated elections.
Each bar is one seat. The line is 26 seats and the shading either side of it is what the control probability is the area of: 39% of simulated elections give the Democrats 26 or more of the 50 — which is not control of anything, because governors do not act as a body. Out of 50,000 simulated elections.