Explore 2026 in charts

This election's forecasts, polls and money, drawn from the newest published forecast and the poll and money records behind it. Each chart says what date its data is as of. Link to it, embed its image, or take its numbers.

Also: The chart library: elections past

A Hundred Novembers
Every Forecast House Race in One Picture
Where the Toss-Ups Went
The Fog of the Forecast
The Seat Ridges
Why the Forecasts Moved
Who Polls the Close Races
Outside Money
The Closest Senate Races, Week by Week
The Polling Calendar
The Poll Stream
Senate Horizon Strips
The Senate Money Map

Forecast · Senate and governors

A Hundred Novembers

In twelve of the twenty-four closest Senate and governor races, the trailing candidate wins at least one November in four

Each square of a hundred dots is one race's forecast chance, counted out: a 70% chance is seventy dots in the favourite's colour and thirty in the other candidate's. Those thirty are Novembers the forecast thinks can really happen, not errors.

Data as of the forecast published November 1, 2026.

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How to read it. Read across: the more dots in the trailing candidate's colour, the closer the race. Races are ordered by the favourite's chance, lowest first.

Source. FutureBallot election-day forecast, newest published run per race. Races where the favourite's chance is 97% or more are left out. Drawn November 2, 2026, 2:33 AM Pacific.

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Forecast · House

Every Forecast House Race in One Picture

The House in 412 forecast districts: a 60% chance or better for Democrats in 207, for Republicans in 187; eighteen toss-ups below that

Every House district with a published forecast between two named candidates (412 of 435; the rest are not drawn), as one dot placed at its middle margin, except those beyond fifty points either way, which are counted at the edges. Dots pile up where districts crowd together; the darker a dot, the surer the forecast. The shaded strip holds the districts within five points.

Data as of the forecast published November 1, 2026.

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How to read it. Left of centre: Republican favoured; right: Democrat favoured. Faint dots are toss-ups or leaning races; solid ones are likely or safe. Districts beyond fifty points are counted at the edges.

Source. FutureBallot election-day House forecast, newest published run; districts with no contested forecast are not shown. Drawn November 2, 2026, 2:33 AM Pacific.

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Forecast · Senate and governors

Where the Toss-Ups Went

Since September 24, ten races moved toward Democrats or independents and two toward Republicans

Every Senate and governor race that was anything but safe at some point, and how its rating changed at three moments of the season. Thirteen kept their rating. Ratings come from the favourite's chance: toss-up below 60%, lean from 60% to 84%, likely from 85% to 94%, and safe at 95% or more.

Data as of the forecast published November 1, 2026.

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How to read it. Each ribbon is a group of races with one rating at one moment and one at the next, the same or different; the ribbon's thickness shows how many races are in it. Ribbons that cross are rating changes. Races safe at all three moments are left out.

Source. FutureBallot election-day forecasts: the newest published run on each date. Drawn November 2, 2026, 2:33 AM Pacific.

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Forecast · Senate and governors

The Fog of the Forecast

In thirty-four of seventy-one Senate and governor races, either candidate can win inside the forecast's likely range

A forecast is a range, not a number. The pale band holds 90% of simulated results, the darker band the middle half, and the tick is the middle result. Wherever a band crosses the centre line, each colour is a way the race can end.

Data as of the forecast published November 1, 2026.

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How to read it. Races are sorted from the most Republican middle result at the top to the most Democratic at the bottom. Bands beyond forty points are cut at the edge.

Source. FutureBallot election-day forecast: 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the simulated margin, newest published run per race. Drawn November 2, 2026, 2:33 AM Pacific.

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Forecast · Senate and House

The Seat Ridges

How the forecast for the Senate has shifted, week by week

Each ridge is one week's forecast: every simulated count of Democratic seats, piled up. Blue is the part of the ridge at or above a majority, red the part below it. Newest at the bottom. Senate: Democrats win 51 or more seats, a majority, in 70% of simulations and fall short in 30% of simulations.

Data as of the forecast published November 1, 2026.

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How to read it. A ridge sliding right means more simulations with more Democratic seats; a ridge getting narrower means the forecast has grown more certain.

Source. FutureBallot election-day chamber forecasts: the newest published run on each date, one a week back from the latest. In the Senate, if Democrats hold fifty seats, Republicans control the chamber through the vice president's vote. Drawn November 2, 2026, 2:33 AM Pacific.

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Forecast · what changed

Why the Forecasts Moved

ID Governor moved most in the last thirty days: 1.8 points toward Pickens, the largest part from the ground-up estimate

The races whose published forecasts moved most over the last thirty days, each move split into what caused it: new polls, the calendar moving on, changes to the model, the ground-up estimate, news events and an unexplained remainder. The parts add up exactly to the move; the dot is where each race ended up.

Data as of the forecast published November 1, 2026.

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How to read it. Bars to the right moved the race toward the candidate named second; bars to the left toward the candidate named first. Long bars both ways mean causes that pulled against each other.

Source. FutureBallot forecast attribution (each published election-day move decomposed by re-running the model with one input changed at a time), margin in points. Drawn November 2, 2026, 2:33 AM Pacific.

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Polls · who pays

Who Polls the Close Races

FutureBallot's archive holds no independent poll for ten of the thirty closest races

The closest Senate, governor and House races, and every poll of each that FutureBallot holds, split by who paid for it. Campaign and partisan polls are released when they help, so a race known only through them is harder to read.

Data as of the forecast published November 1, 2026 and the latest poll fieldwork date, November 1, 2026.

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How to read it. Races are ordered with the closest at the top. Bar length is the number of polls.

Source. FutureBallot poll archive (the polls listed on the /polls pages), general-election questions this cycle; sponsor type as recorded from each release. Drawn November 2, 2026, 2:33 AM Pacific.

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Money · Senate

Outside Money

Of the Senate races shown where the favourite's chance is below 90%, TX Senate has the most money behind it: $203 million so far

The chart shows what each campaign has raised and what outside groups have spent on its side, either for the candidate or against the opponent, in the eleven Senate races shown, those where the favourite's chance is below 90% and both candidates have campaign-finance records. Across all the races shown, campaign receipts and outside spending together come to $744 million.

Data as of the forecast published November 1, 2026 and the latest campaign finance filing recorded, November 1, 2026.

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How to read it. Solid: the campaign's own receipts. Paler: independent expenditures by outside groups on that candidate's side. Only races where both candidates' filings are linked are shown.

Source. Federal Election Commission filings as recorded by FutureBallot, newest record per candidate; millions of dollars. Drawn November 2, 2026, 2:33 AM Pacific.

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Forecast · Senate

The Closest Senate Races, Week by Week

KS Senate rose furthest of the charted races on the list of closest Senate races (any place below fourteenth counted as fifteenth), from number eleven to number two

The twelve closest Senate races today, and where each ranked on the list of closest races in each of the last six weeks. Lines that cross are races trading places.

Data as of the forecast published November 1, 2026.

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How to read it. Rank one is the race whose favourite's chance is nearest 50%. Lines start lower down or below the chart when a race was further from the top twelve.

Source. FutureBallot election-day Senate forecasts: the newest published run on or before each date. Drawn November 2, 2026, 2:33 AM Pacific.

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Polls · the year

The Polling Calendar

61% of this year's 1,253 polls finished on or after Labor Day; one of the busiest days was October 1, when twenty-eight polls finished

Every day from January 1, 2026 to November 1 as a square, darker when more polls of a Senate, governor or House race finished their fieldwork that day. The election season shows up as a wave of colour from September on.

Data as of the latest poll fieldwork date, November 1, 2026.

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How to read it. Columns are weeks; rows are days of the week. Shade is the number of polls ending that day, from none to the number on the busiest day of the year.

Source. FutureBallot poll archive (the polls listed on /polls), general-election questions, by the last day of fieldwork; a poll of several races counts once. Drawn November 2, 2026, 2:33 AM Pacific.

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Polls · the year

The Poll Stream

Polling swelled from a trickle to 132 polls in its busiest week; 76% of this year's polls from January 5 on were independent

Every week from January 5, 2026 to the week of October 26, the number of Senate, governor and House polls that finished fieldwork, split by who paid for them, as a stream that widens with the volume.

Data as of the latest poll fieldwork date, November 1, 2026.

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How to read it. The stream's thickness each week is the number of polls; the layers show who paid.

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Forecast · Senate

Senate Horizon Strips

Three Senate races changed favourite since September 24: IA, KS, NE

Every Senate race with at least five days of forecasts, one thin strip each, showing the forecast's chance day by day. The fill rises with the favourite's chance above 50%, in that favourite's colour; the darker layer starts at 75%. A strip that changes colour is a race that changed favourite.

Data as of the forecast published November 1, 2026.

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How to read it. Pale fill: favourite between 50% and 75%. Dark fill: 75% or more, rising to the top of the strip at 100%. Closest races at the top.

Source. FutureBallot election-day Senate forecasts: the newest published run on each date. Drawn November 2, 2026, 2:33 AM Pacific.

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Money · Senate

The Senate Money Map

Of the Senate races with both candidates' filings linked, the three with the most money hold 36% of the $1,269 million: TX, GA, MI

Every Senate race with both candidates' filings linked, as a block sized by all the money on both sides: what the campaigns raised and what outside groups spent for each. Each block is split by side, in each candidate's party colour.

Data as of the latest campaign finance filing recorded, November 1, 2026.

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How to read it. Bigger block, more money. The split inside each block shows which side the money was on; the split is not the forecast.

Source. Federal Election Commission filings as recorded by FutureBallot, newest record per candidate; millions of dollars. Drawn November 2, 2026, 2:33 AM Pacific.

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