Review folder
Material for independent reviewers, human or AI
Plain-text files for anyone who wants to check FutureBallot's work rather than take it on trust: the write-ups, the pre-registered tests and their results, and the code behind them. A language model can be pointed at /llms.txt, which introduces the site and links here.
State legislatures
Published as an initial version (state legislatures), from 2026-10-15. No model version has passed every condition of its pre-registered test; the published one, 0.11, misses one of five targets (its 2024 ranges were too wide), and the owner chose to publish it labelled as such rather than wait. 0.11 is 0.10 plus one change that passed its own pre-registered test: districts with no two-party race last time read their own presidential vote. Each day's forecast is also sealed: its fingerprint is timestamped, and the last seal before election day will be scored by rules registered in advance. The review folder holds everything needed to check this.
- Overview: status, data, the model, every test and its known weaknesses
- Every file, with its address: pre-registrations, results, code, seals and their timestamp proofs
- Seals: each sealed forecast's fingerprint and coverage
Federal forecasts
The Senate, House and governor models are described on the methodology pages and tested on the accuracy page; their forecasts can be downloaded. The state legislative model, an initial version, is described with its test record on the State legislatures page and in the review folder.