Published forecasts: 2026-11-02
Last published snapshot for this Pacific day. These records were published at the time; no reconstructed forecasts are added.
Compared with the previous available closed day, 2026-11-01. Dates may be more than one day apart.
- 2026-11-01: race records · chamber records · file hashes
- 2026-11-02: race records · chamber records · file hashes
Chambers
Stored party-control bounds; unavailable values stay unavailable. The linked downloads retain model versions and run identifiers.
| Chamber / product | Earlier | Later |
|---|---|---|
| governors · election_day | D 77%–77%; R 13%–13%; neither 9%; 2026-11-02T02:33:21Z | D 80%–80%; R 12%–12%; neither 9%; 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z |
| governors · nowcast | D 74%–74%; R 16%–16%; neither 10%; 2026-11-02T02:33:21Z | D 77%–77%; R 14%–14%; neither 9%; 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z |
| house · election_day | D 87%–87%; R 12%–12%; neither 1%; 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | D 89%–89%; R 11%–11%; neither <1%; 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z |
| senate · election_day | D 70%–75%; R 25%–30%; neither Unavailable; 2026-11-02T02:33:21Z | D 73%–76%; R 24%–27%; neither Unavailable; 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z |
| senate · nowcast | D 72%–75%; R 25%–28%; neither Unavailable; 2026-11-02T02:33:21Z | D 74%–77%; R 23%–26%; neither Unavailable; 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z |
Races
Changes refer to the displayed, rounded percentages. Exact probabilities are in the downloads. Candidate changes are separate rows. A poll appearing between runs is not proof it caused a move. Poll arrivals, money and candidate events are not captured by these forecast files; the model and correction record provides other context.
| Race and subject | Earlier chance / run time | Later chance / run time | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-TX-22 · house · election_day · Marquette Greene-Scott | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NC-4 · house · election_day · Valerie Foushee | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OR · senate · election_day · Jeff Merkley | 98% 2026-11-02T02:35:16Z | 98% 2026-11-02T12:16:31Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersf3d6dac4-692d-42f9-ab02-e0c4aec1dc24 → d087b9e4-b636-46da-983d-040572e795de |
| US-VA · senate · election_day · Mark Warner | 96% 2026-11-02T02:35:16Z | 96% 2026-11-02T12:16:31Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers7865cd81-4a53-454f-9d5d-502320482455 → bd081e7e-3723-41fb-8fb8-f2c89f8e7a37 |
| US-OH-4 · house · election_day · Joshua Kolasinski | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WA-3 · house · election_day · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 52% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 52% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NC-14 · house · election_day · LaKesha Womack | 6% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 6% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OK-5 · house · election_day · Jena Nelson | 3% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 3% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MN-7 · house · election_day · Erik Osberg | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MT · senate · election_day · Seth Bodnar | 3% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 3% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifierscae16c7e-7245-41e1-b56c-3ab64b0dbbd4 → 06e85783-235d-46d6-a921-da423ccc154a |
| US-MT · senate · nowcast · Seth Bodnar | 3% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 2% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 3% → 2% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers317ec63e-b0fe-41bf-af96-8260bffe756e → 2594245b-a7bf-4763-bc7d-bd5537835b45 |
| US-CA-20 · house · election_day · Sandra Van Scotter | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AL-5 · house · election_day · Andrew Sneed | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NC-1 · house · election_day · Don Davis | 85% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 85% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH-7 · house · election_day · Brian Poindexter | 85% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 85% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OK-2 · house · election_day · Brandon Wade | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NC-12 · house · election_day · Alma Adams | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TN · governor · election_day · Jerri Green | 1% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 1% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersd007218a-5e0d-4e2f-9c1c-3f2f21435547 → bfaed6a2-2cda-4ac3-9aa4-3bc24f48661e |
| US-TN · governor · nowcast · Jerri Green | 2% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 2% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers1f37110f-da55-4fea-ade7-fea333a9a9d3 → 263065c2-e568-4b8b-9996-be14f216bfbc |
| US-ID-2 · house · election_day · Ellie Gilbreath | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AZ-4 · house · election_day · Greg Stanton | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NC-9 · house · election_day · Richard Ojeda | 12% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 12% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IA-2 · house · election_day · Lindsay James | 48% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 48% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-38 · house · election_day · Melissa McDonough | 2% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 2% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-LA-3 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-5 · house · election_day · Gregory Meeks | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AR-4 · house · election_day · James Russell | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL · senate · election_day · Angie Nixon | 14% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 14% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersfa337bb7-48f9-4d3e-a86f-cdc38ae310ee → 02d5b1bb-7a48-442c-b43c-eb950858fbcb |
| US-FL · senate · nowcast · Angie Nixon | 11% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 11% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersd51b789d-c86e-4264-9b7a-b435a9f975e3 → 92d7de16-3380-4a9d-aae9-a9b00891c3a0 |
| US-MN-5 · house · election_day · Ilhan Omar | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-28 · house · election_day · Henry Cuellar | 76% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 77% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 76% → 77% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NV-2 · house · election_day · Teresa Benitez-Thompson | 39% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 39% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-4 · house · election_day · Jason Pearce | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX · governor · election_day · Gina Hinojosa | 27% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 31% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 27% → 31% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifierseeff0fe9-7638-42aa-b741-55ae0975ae55 → 1ec47547-e685-4736-a6ba-2dbc5f275380 |
| US-TX · governor · nowcast · Gina Hinojosa | 30% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 35% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 30% → 35% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers9e50a4a1-f154-4d53-bb1c-df2e34765bf1 → a0e151b2-095e-426b-81a3-9e4dabf35c1c |
| US-MA-8 · house · election_day · Stephen Lynch | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NC-13 · house · election_day · Paul Barringer | 7% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 7% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-7 · house · election_day · Claire Valdez | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-ND-AL · house · election_day · Trygve Hammer | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL-9 · house · election_day · Daniel Biss | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MI-2 · house · election_day · Benjamin Ambrose | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MD-6 · house · election_day · April McClain Delaney | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AL-7 · house · election_day · Terri Sewell | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-33 · house · election_day · Pete Aguilar | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-24 · house · election_day · Oliver Gilbert | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-VA-2 · house · election_day · Elaine Luria | 62% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 62% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-4 · house · election_day · LaShonda Holloway | 4% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 4% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MI-10 · house · election_day · Christina Hines | 48% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 48% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MN-2 · house · election_day · Matt Little | 92% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 92% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-8 · house · election_day · Jennifer Jenkins | 3% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 3% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-51 · house · election_day · Sara Jacobs | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-16 · house · election_day · Sam Liccardo | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OR-6 · house · election_day · Andrea Salinas | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-VA-10 · house · election_day · Suhas Subramanyam | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-28 · house · election_day · Judy Chu | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL-4 · house · election_day · Patty Garcia | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OR-3 · house · election_day · Maxine Dexter | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NM · governor · election_day · Deb Haaland | 92% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 92% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersefb7ac4d-6091-4ec9-94f2-b7fe186fb590 → 9cdc2806-fd27-4fc3-8e42-3ab98ece10a1 |
| US-NM · governor · nowcast · Deb Haaland | 91% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 91% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersc5351416-56fb-4d57-8819-c7ba8debbfff → 508d5041-a9ea-4d58-8810-1b717db382dd |
| US-TX-29 · house · election_day · Sylvia Garcia | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OR-5 · house · election_day · Janelle Bynum | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA-3 · house · election_day · Maura Keller | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-5 · house · election_day · Michael Masuda | 2% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 2% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-21 · house · election_day · Blake Gendebien | 25% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 25% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-15 · house · election_day · Kevin Mullin | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-27 · house · election_day · Eliott Rodriguez | 14% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 14% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MO-1 · house · election_day · Wesley Bell | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-KY-1 · house · election_day · John "Drew" Williams | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-SC-3 · house · election_day · Eunice Lehmacher | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA-14 · house · election_day · Shawn Harris | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-ID · senate · election_day · Todd Achilles | 3% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 3% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersb6e0cbfd-ff9d-4459-bfba-3399537e26a8 → 58a8fbc3-88fb-4d72-b64d-3563221af786 |
| US-ID · senate · nowcast · Todd Achilles | 3% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 3% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers7ec843ca-adba-4a87-b4a1-2ffdb8768fc6 → 475ec9c2-022f-417c-8835-45d31815b83e |
| US-TN-2 · house · election_day · Michaela Barnett | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CO-7 · house · election_day · Brittany Pettersen | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-PA-8 · house · election_day · Paige Cognetti | 55% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 55% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-KS-2 · house · election_day · Don Coover | 3% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 2% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 3% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-14 · house · election_day · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH · governor · election_day · Amy Acton | 77% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 80% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 77% → 80% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers40f5ec2d-2918-4770-a84d-5a0acb79a5f3 → 6cb7054e-4068-485e-8b00-1cfb052c7d27 |
| US-OH · governor · nowcast · Amy Acton | 79% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 83% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 79% → 83% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers97cd8e3d-8428-4217-8e6f-a72e712dcd63 → 96dc2b08-92a7-49aa-b81f-288f7e4863d1 |
| US-AR · governor · election_day · Fredrick Love | 3% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 3% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersff11a99e-f681-4c4b-9ff0-ab497fda0669 → 4e1a60fa-bf09-4118-af01-6c5888269ee6 |
| US-AR · governor · nowcast · Fredrick Love | 6% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 6% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers0e9da144-0698-4fb2-ba6f-52a833cfb903 → 8d3b2b28-40dd-4e68-b590-1f7b0bdecdfa |
| US-MO-6 · house · election_day · Josh Smead | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-KS · senate · election_day · Adam Hamilton | 53% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 56% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 53% → 56% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersc21ca813-718d-42d3-a246-26693e5ecc2a → 8639a26c-a3a0-48fd-adf3-36930a42d720 |
| US-KS · senate · nowcast · Adam Hamilton | 66% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 69% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 66% → 69% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers0d08f1a8-55b5-4c53-b63f-e887bfe02f04 → 5b60fc07-8dcb-4f57-a972-6f53e9ce1e8d |
| US-ME · senate · election_day · Troy Jackson | 66% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 72% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 66% → 72% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers56bf6783-c710-45f2-91b2-e4b21b504e21 → 4e8bbe7d-088f-4daa-aefc-4b1196fe7855 |
| US-ME · senate · nowcast · Troy Jackson | 74% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 80% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 74% → 80% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers65271b14-f399-47dc-877c-13284100f09b → fc634797-4553-4f03-9533-2a94de5c1306 |
| US-CA-13 · house · election_day · Adam Gray | 98% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 98% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-17 · house · election_day · Casey Shepard | 2% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL-11 · house · election_day · Bill Foster | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-28 · house · election_day · Phil Ehr | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MO-5 · house · election_day · Emanuel Cleaver | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-22 · house · election_day · John Mannion | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MD · governor · election_day · Wes Moore | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersf34319ed-824e-4d07-80be-8a1790e6aa9d → 45b4c12b-5c6e-4128-84e8-bbb715c0a1a4 |
| US-MD · governor · nowcast · Wes Moore | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersd998715d-528b-42f7-8af9-cb90a3746fcc → dc60de08-1b5b-4d87-8a9a-fc5587393005 |
| US-CO-5 · house · election_day · Jessica Killin | 42% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 41% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 42% → 41% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-2 · house · election_day · Amanda Green | 6% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 6% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MA-3 · house · election_day · Lori Trahan | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH-3 · house · election_day · Joyce Beatty | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NH · governor · election_day · Cinde Warmington | 7% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 9% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 7% → 9% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers1b12addc-4bb6-4db8-bae7-3dd03e92a98d → 5954d37f-1a48-47f1-b14d-6840589b628f |
| US-NH · governor · nowcast · Cinde Warmington | 4% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 6% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 4% → 6% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers6bd210cf-e5f1-42a2-bc8c-71b35a727a44 → 39d9d9c7-181a-4a91-b8e5-39d2dcb3f0e9 |
| US-NC-7 · house · election_day · Kimberly Hardy | 6% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 6% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WV · senate · election_day · Rachel Fetty Anderson | 1% 2026-11-02T02:35:16Z | 1% 2026-11-02T12:16:31Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers642db652-dfa1-436a-843f-9c012e3bd403 → fa00d21d-27fd-4d63-9dbb-c26fc4d30ae2 |
| US-OK · senate · election_day · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | 1% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 1% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersd40373a3-cd16-4e10-af41-7d045dc4fc5f → 5450fc8f-dc92-4c6d-a18e-bdd98e409f84 |
| US-OK · senate · nowcast · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | <1% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | <1% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers9a5c5465-6450-4d22-a63c-e73091229e4a → 3816db45-9c99-46e3-96da-5bce01d63bc1 |
| US-CA-32 · house · election_day · Brad Sherman | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NE · senate · election_day · Dan Osborn | 43% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 42% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 43% → 42% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers8954e691-179f-4c75-99a6-e4245383264c → 65cec73f-6162-48e0-8e1c-3e4a94ed913f |
| US-NE · senate · nowcast · Dan Osborn | 43% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 42% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 43% → 42% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers4256d4c7-63eb-4722-898e-5a4f01910733 → e2ee6dec-034b-4038-a06a-8aa18043b759 |
| US-TN-1 · house · election_day · Kristi Burke | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-12 · house · election_day · Angela Rodriguez Prilliman | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MS-4 · house · election_day · Jeffrey Hulum III | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OK-1 · house · election_day · John Croisant | 2% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 2% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WA-2 · house · election_day · Rick Larsen | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-SC-7 · house · election_day · John Vincent | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OK-3 · house · election_day · Suzie Byrd | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-ID · governor · election_day · Terri Pickens | <1% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | <1% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers64e4dd1b-467d-444b-9c13-c64acec6faa2 → 2739bc15-d17c-459e-9322-3779e633d560 |
| US-ID · governor · nowcast · Terri Pickens | 1% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 1% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers67dbacef-2018-4752-b93b-b56080494309 → 39c0ac02-20a6-4aba-ab80-a83d782bcbf4 |
| US-TX-8 · house · election_day · Laura Jones | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA-1 · house · election_day · Amanda Hollowell | 7% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 7% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-UT-1 · house · election_day · Ben McAdams | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL · senate · election_day · Juliana Stratton | 98% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 98% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers619fb66e-5b3c-4bf0-bc61-807356575a7b → 6c803dde-13ef-472b-8b9a-d556b738a7bc |
| US-IL · senate · nowcast · Juliana Stratton | 96% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 96% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers767f7636-feee-47de-9352-d0428694590f → f299c2ab-c208-49dc-a4a6-38a7214d69de |
| US-ME-1 · house · election_day · Chellie Pingree | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-PA-2 · house · election_day · Brendan Boyle | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH · senate · election_day · Sherrod Brown | 73% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 73% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers75cf6cae-6d6b-4dec-b973-9e615c1fd835 → ea3a2b9d-e39d-4462-85d2-d2645bb2d850 |
| US-OH · senate · nowcast · Sherrod Brown | 75% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 75% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers0029954d-5c1c-4376-9ee4-2320476af9b9 → ecb9f40e-1666-4476-a161-e723a7e66af4 |
| US-CA-23 · house · election_day · Tessa Lynn Hodge | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WA-7 · house · election_day · Pramila Jayapal | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MN-6 · house · election_day · Doug Chapin | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-1 · house · election_day · Chris Gallant | 13% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 13% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AZ-7 · house · election_day · Adelita Grijalva | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CT-3 · house · election_day · Rosa DeLauro | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-PA-4 · house · election_day · Madeleine Dean | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-23 · house · election_day · Aaron Gies | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NJ-6 · house · election_day · Frank Pallone | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-2 · house · election_day · Shaun Finnie | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-UT-2 · house · election_day · Peter Crosby | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-KY-5 · house · election_day · Ned Pillersdorf | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-16 · house · election_day · Kelly Kirschner | 21% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 21% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL-5 · house · election_day · Mike Quigley | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MS-3 · house · election_day · Michael Chiaradio | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH-15 · house · election_day · Don Leonard | 38% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 37% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 38% → 37% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MA-4 · house · election_day · Jake Auchincloss | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-LA-4 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-11 · house · election_day · James Pericola | 7% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 7% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-14 · house · election_day · Thurman Bartie | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-ME-2 · house · election_day · Matthew Dunlap | 42% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 42% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IA · governor · election_day · Rob Sand | 86% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 87% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 86% → 87% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersb9ac6b46-38ac-4616-8f41-ebe99538ddc0 → 25160e44-ecb8-4c92-9c95-6b9f8b123813 |
| US-IA · governor · nowcast · Rob Sand | 92% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 92% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers7609c249-f164-4893-91f3-0936e06fecf5 → 0fb47690-b17e-4b9e-90c8-164142930dfb |
| US-PA-10 · house · election_day · Janelle Stelson | 67% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 68% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 67% → 68% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-RI · governor · election_day · Helena Foulkes | 99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersd509e560-afb6-4e24-a715-989b3899a5d7 → 8af4aa2d-8c35-4000-a2a1-8d65bdcd851d |
| US-RI · governor · nowcast · Helena Foulkes | 99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers04c34a27-78e7-4dc5-85d1-004e7e0ec4fe → a86787fe-440e-44f0-8197-c7ffba81d0eb |
| US-FL-6 · house · election_day · Eric Yonce | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CT · governor · election_day · Ned Lamont | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersfba516b0-b2f7-4da7-8272-045a2f970584 → ea1a630a-e676-42a7-949c-2f5def347e34 |
| US-CT · governor · nowcast · Ned Lamont | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers6bc0fe1c-932a-4831-8dbc-07b13d36029d → 93e8a7b4-cf39-47db-ba3c-0e791456ca0a |
| US-AL · senate · election_day · Everett Wess | 1% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 1% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers13be0902-1509-4e18-b8d8-5bde148192c4 → a5a7bb3e-9da7-44dd-bd14-dced5e3767e9 |
| US-AL · senate · nowcast · Everett Wess | 1% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 1% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers2ad8a0d6-85b2-49d7-8287-6f5544adf18d → b223d435-88ff-4f49-ad04-bb3e59a51ece |
| US-FL-5 · house · election_day · Rachel Grage | 2% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 2% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AL-4 · house · election_day · Amanda Pusczek | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MN · senate · election_day · Peggy Flanagan | 91% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 91% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers84f19532-1139-4521-9e14-a179c5ca1322 → d4a057c9-6b76-4b13-9a55-5b56236ae5c7 |
| US-MN · senate · nowcast · Peggy Flanagan | 82% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 82% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers8a809c58-5cc7-4610-a98d-78fed5b2f535 → 2aacc5cb-cafb-4bcf-97e1-5b78b7fa91b6 |
| US-TN-7 · house · election_day · Darden Copeland | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-15 · house · election_day · Robert People | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-43 · house · election_day · Maxine Waters | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CO · governor · election_day · Phil Weiser | 97% 2026-11-02T01:35:02Z | 99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 97% → 99% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers37774e6b-a58d-49f5-8ca8-e4ee4a98e931 → 02f1fb0f-0d3b-4b5d-98b7-78971573fc4d |
| US-CO · governor · nowcast · Phil Weiser | 97% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 98% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 97% → 98% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersa02b91e0-b0d3-4a57-9eae-598e0a606005 → 07f79a83-4613-44c8-b132-a1ce01da690c |
| US-WI-6 · house · election_day · Brad Smith | 3% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 3% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MD-7 · house · election_day · Kweisi Mfume | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MN-3 · house · election_day · Kelly Morrison | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-32 · house · election_day · Dan Barrios | 6% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 5% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 6% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TN-4 · house · election_day · Victoria Broderick | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MD-2 · house · election_day · Johnny Olszewski | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TN-8 · house · election_day · Heidi Kuhn | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NE-3 · house · election_day · Becky Stille | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MS · senate · election_day · Scott Colom | 7% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 7% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers566d774c-8e48-4c70-9089-4c14764c9a3e → 12997a28-e3a0-48aa-83d1-be05741d01a3 |
| US-MS · senate · nowcast · Scott Colom | 17% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 17% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers0c0d2269-c384-4b68-bec3-8af9217cd801 → a97bb743-1766-48a0-8751-b800f5fb2bc2 |
| US-NM-3 · house · election_day · Teresa Leger Fernández | 99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NJ-2 · house · election_day · Zack Mullock | 4% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 4% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-KY-2 · house · election_day · Megan Wingfield | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL-14 · house · election_day · Lauren Underwood | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-34 · house · election_day · Vicente Gonzalez | 74% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 75% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 74% → 75% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX · senate · election_day · James Talarico | 68% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 69% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 68% → 69% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers3c5a921b-6790-42da-9fe3-6c6b5916aec3 → 890bfddf-5082-4bcd-a70d-c2a2f15fb014 |
| US-TX · senate · nowcast · James Talarico | 74% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 75% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 74% → 75% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersacee381a-da9b-44e1-b2ff-5d309287ef75 → a70974bc-0d9e-4f35-9472-bdc3400e5a06 |
| US-OH-13 · house · election_day · Emilia Sykes | 99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL · governor · election_day · David Jolly | 23% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 23% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers7dcc096b-5d80-4cae-b77e-34d449caa628 → 83de2cc3-d6b0-4038-90e6-cec4fb9de846 |
| US-FL · governor · nowcast · David Jolly | 19% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 19% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers83d8380e-96b9-45f4-9541-b1632e272cab → 015aa74d-6cb3-4859-9004-da2923efeec5 |
| US-MI-13 · house · election_day · Donavan McKinney | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NJ-12 · house · election_day · Adam Hamawy | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-SC-6 · house · election_day · Jim Clyburn | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH-9 · house · election_day · Marcy Kaptur | 84% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 84% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WI-3 · house · election_day · Rebecca Cooke | 56% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 56% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NE-2 · house · election_day · Denise Powell | 91% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 91% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-VA-3 · house · election_day · Bobby Scott | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-VA-6 · house · election_day · Beth Macy | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-22 · house · election_day · Randy Villegas | 46% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 46% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH-8 · house · election_day · Vanessa Enoch | 5% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 5% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AZ · governor · election_day · Katie Hobbs | 97% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 97% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers7ff5540a-5e5b-445d-99e5-7f4f1b44ecc0 → b0518e9f-ed0f-497e-b607-677a10b2a001 |
| US-AZ · governor · nowcast · Katie Hobbs | 96% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 96% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersfe07edb3-0c8c-448a-b72b-5e1da4c4026f → d12d3bd1-d585-4de2-9444-9f34cfd2c184 |
| US-VT · governor · election_day · Amanda Janoo | 9% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 16% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 9% → 16% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers52440813-ea3a-4df3-96d1-37dcd3a3ca4f → fef7f668-6722-4fba-b8d0-de65d54fd8e4 |
| US-VT · governor · nowcast · Amanda Janoo | 18% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 34% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 18% → 34% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersafe0e87d-bbee-4940-9563-09490ea92abd → 595ea2ec-b066-4bc8-9ec6-29311035dccf |
| US-MI-6 · house · election_day · Debbie Dingell | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MI-7 · house · election_day · William Lawrence | 60% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 60% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IN-3 · house · election_day · Kelly Thompson | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WA-5 · house · election_day · Carmela Conroy | 6% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 6% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-LA · senate · election_day · Jamie Davis | 12% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 12% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersc235d5b9-d23a-43cb-a6dc-490a6a1507d2 → 26ff05db-f666-47d4-9f39-02705fee929b |
| US-LA · senate · nowcast · Jamie Davis | 21% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 21% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers302c8c03-759c-48f3-9c94-c19883b192a7 → 2902d32b-093a-4f60-9a97-fb5803ead876 |
| US-NE · governor · election_day · Lynne Walz | 15% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 15% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers904af5c3-6713-4dc6-a877-884ca131a9ce → 11aee6fa-bef2-4e04-936a-66c63e6f01f1 |
| US-NE · governor · nowcast · Lynne Walz | 21% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 21% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers31b058fe-6f0f-4eba-8194-6871b55b4452 → e9e1ab2e-8d60-45ca-86b2-64d44fd705b8 |
| US-TX-1 · house · election_day · Yolanda Prince | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-39 · house · election_day · Mark Takano | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-35 · house · election_day · Johnny Garcia | 47% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 47% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-PA-9 · house · election_day · Rachel Wallace | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NC-11 · house · election_day · Jamie Ager | 88% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 88% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MT-2 · house · election_day · Brian Miller | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NC-5 · house · election_day · Chuck Hubbard | 8% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 7% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 8% → 7% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MI-3 · house · election_day · Hillary Scholten | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA-11 · house · election_day · Chris Harden | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-13 · house · election_day · Mark Nair | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-KS · governor · election_day · Cindy Holscher | 39% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 41% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 39% → 41% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers28c561d7-f7c6-4611-b2ff-0781e25a686d → 4260ca32-3a4a-439c-85e9-29c59bbea708 |
| US-KS · governor · nowcast · Cindy Holscher | 34% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 37% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 34% → 37% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers5b1da0a2-b396-450c-8e4e-094e3d95da67 → 727bafb8-f280-43f2-aca2-d649c5085e8d |
| US-AL-6 · house · election_day · Maurice Mercer | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NE-1 · house · election_day · Chris Backemeyer | 15% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 15% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WI-5 · house · election_day · Andrew Beck | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-HI · governor · election_day · Josh Green | 99% 2026-11-02T02:35:16Z | 99% 2026-11-02T12:16:31Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers669e0dbf-c99a-4633-a9c8-c620b911ff37 → f51e9215-248d-4be5-8149-e1e5e8eae291 |
| US-FL-21 · house · election_day · James Martin | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-25 · house · election_day · Dione Sims | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WA-4 · house · election_day · John Duresky | 2% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 2% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-48 · house · election_day · Marni von Wilpert | 85% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 85% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-9 · house · election_day · Darren Soto | 43% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 43% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-2 · house · election_day · Patrick Halpin | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-2 · house · election_day · Jared Huffman | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IN-8 · house · election_day · Mary Allen | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-RI-2 · house · election_day · Seth Magaziner | 99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH-1 · house · election_day · Greg Landsman | 90% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 91% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 90% → 91% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WY · senate · election_day · James W. Byrd | <1% 2026-11-02T02:35:16Z | <1% 2026-11-02T12:16:31Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers4d9ce86b-32ef-47c6-ae16-e4fdc1d1d7d0 → 6d033011-47ed-4a92-9849-cfd395d1c537 |
| US-CA-18 · house · election_day · Zoe Lofgren | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-47 · house · election_day · Dave Min | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-UT-4 · house · election_day · Jonny Larsen | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL-13 · house · election_day · Nikki Budzinski | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NC · senate · election_day · Roy Cooper | 97% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 97% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers9f1cefdf-75be-4ee5-8569-c61a258e5a37 → 00310176-f43e-4c05-b44f-32b5280f327b |
| US-NC · senate · nowcast · Roy Cooper | 97% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 97% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers1042dfb6-6d91-43f6-9f3f-70b1d1764924 → 93e80441-946c-4543-b736-9735ee059b0d |
| US-NV-1 · house · election_day · Dina Titus | 98% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 98% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-4 · house · election_day · Laura Gillen | 98% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 98% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NJ-4 · house · election_day · Rachel Peace | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OR · governor · election_day · Tina Kotek | 84% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 83% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 84% → 83% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers74c74d45-1c90-4fe3-9795-4530825f0492 → c8b4814a-ce9e-413c-ac86-e18166a0a277 |
| US-OR · governor · nowcast · Tina Kotek | 56% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 57% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 56% → 57% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers94ea737d-e205-4723-8324-e459454baaf1 → 42854e95-bfd7-407c-8540-51601142d387 |
| US-SC · governor · election_day · Jermaine Johnson | 4% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 4% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers6e4cb41a-0b4e-4f7b-b641-a27a4fbc0e9a → 27e6a0ef-4b66-4834-9c6d-c30c566e5f06 |
| US-SC · governor · nowcast · Jermaine Johnson | 3% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 3% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers132d6fdf-8659-4dab-b720-d98dbc2bac98 → a3227658-8e03-493a-adab-454a4dd25255 |
| US-MN-8 · house · election_day · Trina Swanson | 4% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 4% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA-6 · house · election_day · Lucy McBath | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-SD · senate · election_day · Brian Bengs | 8% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 8% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers2a07f6e9-843d-4c4a-a935-96fffb148f0f → d116cfbb-eee2-40aa-ad0e-d3a3bc6257e0 |
| US-SD · senate · nowcast · Brian Bengs | 7% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 7% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersa7038885-8aa7-4ce4-a7b6-f35fcc89c71f → ca1fa4b6-3cb7-4ac1-81ab-6429b0153a7d |
| US-ID-1 · house · election_day · Kaylee Peterson | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH-2 · house · election_day · Jennifer Mazzuckelli | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-1 · house · election_day · Gay Valimont | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-31 · house · election_day · Gil Cisneros | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-HI-2 · house · election_day · Jill Tokuda | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-VA-8 · house · election_day · Don Beyer | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CO-1 · house · election_day · Melat Kiros | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-PA-11 · house · election_day · Nancy Mannion | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AR · senate · election_day · Hallie Shoffner | 5% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 5% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers06791585-1c5c-4bc6-a613-14d8e02129e9 → 9dba71d8-5178-4747-8f8f-e5779859095a |
| US-AR · senate · nowcast · Hallie Shoffner | 13% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 13% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers49b3f8dd-7b8e-4a10-b989-55eaedc2f227 → 1abdb4ef-835d-4e8a-8636-ebfcd375f9da |
| US-PA-15 · house · election_day · Ray Bilger | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AZ-5 · house · election_day · Elizabeth Lee | 4% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 4% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NC-2 · house · election_day · Deborah Ross | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MN-4 · house · election_day · Betty McCollum | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-3 · house · election_day · Ami Bera | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NC-6 · house · election_day · Cyril Jefferson | 4% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 4% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IA-3 · house · election_day · Sarah Trone Garriott | 76% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 76% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-DE-AL · house · election_day · Sarah McBride | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OR-4 · house · election_day · Val Hoyle | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-PA-17 · house · election_day · Chris Deluzio | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA-5 · house · election_day · Nikema Williams | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NM-1 · house · election_day · Melanie Stansbury | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-41 · house · election_day · Linda Sánchez | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-38 · house · election_day · Hilda Solis | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-LA-1 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-14 · house · election_day · Kathy Castor | 85% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 86% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 85% → 86% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MD-8 · house · election_day · Jamie Raskin | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH-14 · house · election_day · Maria Jukic | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-12 · house · election_day · Micah Lasher | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-21 · house · election_day · Jim Costa | 99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NJ-9 · house · election_day · Nellie Pou | 99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AL-1 · house · election_day · Clyde Jones | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-18 · house · election_day · Pat Ryan | 99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-PA-1 · house · election_day · Bob Harvie | 28% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 28% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-6 · house · election_day · Grace Meng | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA · governor · election_day · Xavier Becerra | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers13114afd-eb3d-4273-afdc-fb6814f65434 → 01764b15-41ed-41c3-8358-3bfc8c1a2c3a |
| US-CA · governor · nowcast · Xavier Becerra | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers1dfa4170-8663-4dc9-aa87-61f857fa101c → 7ec4f30c-ab0e-48bf-bfbe-d8f42025bcca |
| US-WI-4 · house · election_day · Gwen Moore | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AL · governor · election_day · Doug Jones | 3% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 3% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifierscf50c44c-8e62-4205-ad13-a453bff72546 → 5ef6e4dc-c636-468a-b9ba-19e1af7669b1 |
| US-AL · governor · nowcast · Doug Jones | 4% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 4% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersd3c03fee-b741-490e-8b43-80ed7e7a23b3 → bea7ecb4-b1a6-4ef8-9408-54e36da9b493 |
| US-FL-25 · house · election_day · Jared Moskowitz | 80% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 80% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-24 · house · election_day · Kevin Burge | 4% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 4% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL-3 · house · election_day · Delia Ramirez | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA-10 · house · election_day · Pamela DeLancy | 3% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 3% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-26 · house · election_day · Nicole Locklin | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MO-4 · house · election_day · Jordan Herrera | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-PA-7 · house · election_day · Bob Brooks | 71% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 71% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-VA-7 · house · election_day · Eugene Vindman | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL-12 · house · election_day · Julie Fortier | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OK · governor · election_day · Cyndi Munson | 16% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 16% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersd3c8c1c5-4d6e-4c43-bba2-f11c9acc3c02 → 12b16d48-9649-4e43-854e-6105a7b4f603 |
| US-OK · governor · nowcast · Cyndi Munson | 29% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 29% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers890521c7-f38c-4ff2-b64e-2aba65e57c4a → 3b40bbe4-2722-4349-9333-db31aea8de57 |
| US-TN-3 · house · election_day · Anna Golladay | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MI · governor · election_day · Jocelyn Benson | 94% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 95% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 94% → 95% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers97b31873-3d82-410c-9b2c-081751e8d1c8 → 2aec9253-b93d-4250-ae80-d99dce4401a9 |
| US-MI · governor · nowcast · Jocelyn Benson | 94% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 95% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 94% → 95% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers401e3a13-b59f-492a-9ea5-53fe917e5e02 → 4a9e6e35-609b-4bca-bf29-ce67b67edfea |
| US-MA · senate · election_day · Ed Markey | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers8b7aef6a-6f24-4017-9bfe-9b5c873daaa7 → 4dea8716-e147-4aaf-89b9-2af1ed20d7a7 |
| US-MA · senate · nowcast · Ed Markey | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersd80861e0-cd4a-45a0-8e23-172459063e4b → 7d83edb6-71e3-4ec8-9dc0-f3ee0533ef75 |
| US-IL-7 · house · election_day · La Shawn Ford | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH-11 · house · election_day · Shontel Brown | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-VA-5 · house · election_day · Tom Perriello | 17% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 17% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL-1 · house · election_day · Jonathan Jackson | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AR-2 · house · election_day · Chris Jones | 23% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 23% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-23 · house · election_day · Lois Frankel | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AK · governor · election_day · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 89% 2026-11-02T02:35:19Z | 89% 2026-11-02T22:47:17Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers13c6ec0f-80e6-4676-b8ee-6fa4ecf02e16 → 5745ee6c-41bc-4c63-971d-8dfd4794564f |
| US-AK · governor · nowcast · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 91% 2026-11-02T02:35:19Z | 91% 2026-11-02T22:47:17Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers927247ea-5637-4638-a21b-c44070be2370 → f30eec84-eaa2-4846-98cb-45f64f277450 |
| US-MI-5 · house · election_day · Christian Vukasovich | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NH-1 · house · election_day · Stefany Shaheen | 84% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 85% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 84% → 85% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-VA-11 · house · election_day · James Walkinshaw | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-22 · house · election_day · Pia Dandiya | 57% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 57% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-18 · house · election_day · Curtis Gibson | 2% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 2% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AK-AL · house · election_day · Bill Hill | 30% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 30% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-1 · house · election_day · Mike McGuire | 99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-RI-1 · house · election_day · Gabe Amo | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MO-8 · house · election_day · Christopher Reichard | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NJ · senate · election_day · Cory Booker | 94% 2026-11-02T02:35:16Z | 94% 2026-11-02T12:16:31Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers1025346d-0a99-45f4-a647-ff04fa98a988 → 864c2700-8c5c-4f99-853a-ff0b5eef3cc8 |
| US-PA-12 · house · election_day · Summer Lee | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-KY-4 · house · election_day · Melissa Claire Strange | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-3 · house · election_day · Tom Suozzi | 96% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 97% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 96% → 97% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IN-7 · house · election_day · André Carson | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IA · senate · election_day · Josh Turek | 48% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 47% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 48% → 47% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersfbd54b84-a227-44f0-9801-1f28a6837190 → d28efb0a-2fa5-4d60-85f7-fb1725926df3 |
| US-IA · senate · nowcast · Josh Turek | 52% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 51% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 52% → 51% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersea26e41e-947b-4538-95ea-9b88111feb15 → 78b91f2a-d282-4af7-b0c5-70c6c140a7eb |
| US-NY-13 · house · election_day · Darializa Avila Chevalier | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-36 · house · election_day · Rhonda Hart | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-23 · house · election_day · Katy Padilla Stout | 22% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 22% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-7 · house · election_day · Lizzie Fletcher | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IA-4 · house · election_day · Dave Dawson | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CO · senate · election_day · John Hickenlooper | 98% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 98% → 99% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers0fb22dd5-1143-4204-97e7-eb3153caead6 → 1e5ae870-6d2a-480e-be0a-256cd8e1da84 |
| US-CO · senate · nowcast · John Hickenlooper | 95% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 97% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 95% → 97% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersf237f5db-4cf7-46cc-9cb2-c0800072f4fe → a360ba66-d0b9-4915-947b-112764cb7eaf |
| US-AL-3 · house · election_day · Lee McInnis | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-36 · house · election_day · Ted Lieu | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MT-1 · house · election_day · Sam Forstag | 45% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 57% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 45% → 57% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MD-5 · house · election_day · Adrian Boafo | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-19 · house · election_day · Jimmy Panetta | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-33 · house · election_day · Colin Allred | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-20 · house · election_day · Paul Tonko | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA-2 · house · election_day · Sanford Bishop | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NC-3 · house · election_day · Raymond Smith Jr. | 20% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 20% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-52 · house · election_day · Juan Vargas | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OR-2 · house · election_day · Chris Beck | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-LA-5 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OR-1 · house · election_day · Suzanne Bonamici | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NM · senate · election_day · Ben Ray Luján | 97% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 97% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifierse4a5b8bf-9c28-4645-9a20-d6bc69e5b14a → 2ff18b5d-50d2-4871-bbcc-cd5a1a6c8ae3 |
| US-NM · senate · nowcast · Ben Ray Luján | 96% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 96% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers95b816fc-0f4d-40f8-a9cc-0f6d1a23df05 → 74582c1f-45c5-4631-95e1-ad640ebde24a |
| US-NC-10 · house · election_day · Ashley Bell | 3% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 3% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH-12 · house · election_day · Jerrad Christian | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MO-2 · house · election_day · Fred Wellman | 44% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 44% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-PA-16 · house · election_day · Justin Wagner | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-26 · house · election_day · Jacqui Irwin | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WA-10 · house · election_day · Marilyn Strickland | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-KS-4 · house · election_day · Katy Tyndell | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CO-8 · house · election_day · Manny Rutinel | 65% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 66% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 65% → 66% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MI-4 · house · election_day · Sean McCann | 41% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 41% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-30 · house · election_day · Laura Friedman | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-5 · house · election_day · Chelsey Hockett | 2% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MO-3 · house · election_day · Bethany Mann | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-SD · governor · election_day · Dan Ahlers | 1% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 1% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers626c5b77-68a6-4cec-ad28-d83bf108d35c → d9b8a88d-15f7-4e89-b721-a00b13722f2b |
| US-SD · governor · nowcast · Dan Ahlers | 3% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 3% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersa097bec0-f0f6-4377-b3ca-bf7df7a28e86 → 2af9c731-c81c-4e7e-9707-4ec39519b562 |
| US-AR-3 · house · election_day · Robb Ryerse | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-17 · house · election_day · Ro Khanna | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MI-9 · house · election_day · Ray Pooley | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-11 · house · election_day · Claire Reynolds | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-SC · senate · election_day · Annie Andrews | 28% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 27% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 28% → 27% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers97ac56cb-108f-4ec9-be22-b0d2b5bdd6e3 → af4dbbf7-ee8b-43f6-bc07-f19392c160b6 |
| US-SC · senate · nowcast · Annie Andrews | 35% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 35% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers5b8ae3f2-fd7b-4903-8d4d-fd0756a4da62 → cb688d01-4269-497a-998e-cf03ff43ed95 |
| US-IL-15 · house · election_day · Jennifer Todd | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-9 · house · election_day · Yvette Clarke | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA · senate · election_day · Jon Ossoff | 96% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 96% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersd0d0c936-0441-4cd5-aa68-2569aabb22e5 → f4923a73-f228-4d6a-8493-a5d03528c5e3 |
| US-GA · senate · nowcast · Jon Ossoff | 94% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 94% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersfd10bd58-a300-46e0-8a32-8d99d46574f0 → 38a5160e-d761-446f-8256-5daf31956904 |
| US-NY-19 · house · election_day · Josh Riley | 99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-VA-4 · house · election_day · Jennifer McClellan | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MS-1 · house · election_day · Cliff Johnson | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-DE · senate · election_day · Chris Coons | 99% 2026-11-02T02:35:16Z | 99% 2026-11-02T12:16:31Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers1bec515d-0b7e-4ede-899c-a308b8107dc3 → c8841a37-2893-455c-a126-3c35fb561590 |
| US-IL · governor · election_day · JB Pritzker | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersabafdd4f-798e-4370-a12c-594c1e9bf520 → aaa5a5c6-8837-4e0d-bfcc-859342fa3aa9 |
| US-IL · governor · nowcast · JB Pritzker | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers1fb4d3fa-8c8b-4fa1-ab52-ceb64aecdb36 → 7f939f77-1bd5-4783-a1a9-a16fce2f6286 |
| US-WA-6 · house · election_day · Emily Randall | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-19 · house · election_day · Victor Arias | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-SC-1 · house · election_day · Nancy Lacore | 34% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 34% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH-10 · house · election_day · Kristina Knickerbocker | 8% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 8% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-3 · house · election_day · Seth Harp | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-RI · senate · election_day · Jack Reed | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers782d015d-1ab2-4c0b-bf5e-6132a3ca00c0 → 8827b4ec-af93-48d5-88b2-9c03660c9c32 |
| US-RI · senate · nowcast · Jack Reed | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers1f1f60d8-504d-410d-a49a-e59db067372d → 40a0d5ef-a6e8-48b0-8f7b-49e1f920d316 |
| US-CA-44 · house · election_day · Nanette Barragán | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NH · senate · election_day · Chris Pappas | 93% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 94% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 93% → 94% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers9a62d6bb-196f-462c-9c36-dd6c0abbaeb1 → bbfd469a-36d6-4032-bdc6-e304d78eae43 |
| US-NH · senate · nowcast · Chris Pappas | 88% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 91% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 88% → 91% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers341b7bea-3953-40cc-bab7-7d72078fd37f → 37a80151-da8d-404b-855f-8ce2e1d173ac |
| US-AZ-9 · house · election_day · Danielle Sterbinsky | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-17 · house · election_day · Cait Conley | 47% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 47% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-21 · house · election_day · Kristin Hook | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MA-6 · house · election_day · Dan Koh | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL-17 · house · election_day · Eric Sorensen | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NM-2 · house · election_day · Gabe Vasquez | 82% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 82% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-VA-9 · house · election_day · Joy Powers | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IN-1 · house · election_day · Frank Mrvan | 99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-8 · house · election_day · Hakeem Jeffries | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AR-1 · house · election_day · Terri Yarbrough | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-KY-6 · house · election_day · Zach Dembo | 56% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 56% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MI-12 · house · election_day · Rashida Tlaib | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TN-6 · house · election_day · Mike Croley | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-PA-5 · house · election_day · Mary Gay Scanlon | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NV · governor · election_day · Aaron Ford | 46% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 46% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers06654391-b5c1-4853-b855-6a46c08208f0 → 1e85f3e5-a2d5-4113-9d8b-ecb081a46a20 |
| US-NV · governor · nowcast · Aaron Ford | 42% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 42% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers4d91af24-3705-4002-9b83-9d1d8653ab88 → 6bfd30ca-c754-4f33-b962-7cc6629f5085 |
| US-SC-4 · house · election_day · Courtney McClain | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IN-5 · house · election_day · J.D. Ford | 20% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 20% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-35 · house · election_day · Norma Torres | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-24 · house · election_day · Alissa Ellman | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-LA-6 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AZ-1 · house · election_day · Amish Shah | 69% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 69% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WV-1 · house · election_day · Vince George | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NJ-3 · house · election_day · Herb Conaway | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IN-2 · house · election_day · Jamee Decio | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-27 · house · election_day · George Whitesides | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-37 · house · election_day · Greg Casar | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-49 · house · election_day · Mike Levin | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TN-5 · house · election_day · Chaz Molder | 10% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 9% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 10% → 9% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA-12 · house · election_day · Ceretta Smith | 2% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 2% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AZ-6 · house · election_day · JoAnna Mendoza | 64% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 64% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-SC-2 · house · election_day · Zyon Khalifa | 5% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 5% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-20 · house · election_day · Joaquin Castro | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WA-1 · house · election_day · Suzan DelBene | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-PA-13 · house · election_day · Beth Farnham | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AK · senate · election_day · Mary Peltola | 57% 2026-11-02T02:35:19Z | 57% 2026-11-02T22:47:17Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers8bad5d7c-0677-4733-b7e2-e02870d2e451 → 662f166b-5d72-4829-a119-f25c050c9d8d |
| US-AK · senate · nowcast · Mary Peltola | 58% 2026-11-02T02:35:19Z | 58% 2026-11-02T22:47:17Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers434f82fc-a879-4428-a0bd-c8fc58fc31ee → bbbdd832-0d70-4e6f-89dd-4af7c8f3199e |
| US-NJ-7 · house · election_day · Rebecca Bennett | 68% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 68% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TN · senate · election_day · Marquita Bradshaw | 1% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 1% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers6cbe5c90-ccd4-46f6-bd4c-8258bf019d29 → 4d862f52-fe44-43b4-9ae1-3158fa8de02e |
| US-TN · senate · nowcast · Marquita Bradshaw | 1% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 1% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersf55e59a9-ab7a-4b02-a0df-fbba779f4dbf → e8f9d17d-fc30-4b26-8b02-f9640a829bbc |
| US-CA-9 · house · election_day · Josh Harder | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-LA-2 · house · election_day · Troy A. Carter Sr. | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NC-8 · house · election_day · Colby Watson | 2% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 2% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-26 · house · election_day · Steven Shook | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-9 · house · election_day · Leticia Gutierrez | 5% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 5% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-SC-5 · house · election_day · Mallory Dittmer | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-SD-AL · house · election_day · Nicole Gronli | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL-8 · house · election_day · Melissa Bean | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-VA-1 · house · election_day · Shannon Taylor | 55% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 55% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-15 · house · election_day · Bobby Pulido | 63% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 63% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AL-2 · house · election_day · Shomari Figures | 36% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 36% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MN-1 · house · election_day · Jake Johnson | 26% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 26% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-KS-3 · house · election_day · Sharice Davids | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CT-2 · house · election_day · Joe Courtney | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NV-4 · house · election_day · Steven Horsford | 99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-16 · house · election_day · George Latimer | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MD-3 · house · election_day · Sarah Elfreth | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-12 · house · election_day · Kimberly Overman | 2% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 2% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IN-6 · house · election_day · Cynthia Wirth | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-PA-6 · house · election_day · Chrissy Houlahan | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MO-7 · house · election_day · Missi Hesketh | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WI-7 · house · election_day · Fred Clark | 2% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 2% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MA-9 · house · election_day · Bill Keating | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-KY-3 · house · election_day · Morgan McGarvey | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-HI-1 · house · election_day · Ed Case | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-16 · house · election_day · Veronica Escobar | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MD-1 · house · election_day · Dan Schwartz | 3% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 3% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-15 · house · election_day · Ritchie Torres | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NJ-5 · house · election_day · Josh Gottheimer | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-UT-3 · house · election_day · Kent Udell | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-20 · house · election_day · Debbie Wasserman Schultz | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-45 · house · election_day · Derek Tran | 98% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 98% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-30 · house · election_day · Frederick Haynes III | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-25 · house · election_day · Joseph Morelle | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CT-5 · house · election_day · Jahana Hayes | 99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA-8 · house · election_day · Kelly Esti | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-27 · house · election_day · Tanya Lloyd | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CO-3 · house · election_day · Dwayne Romero | 23% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 23% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IA-1 · house · election_day · Christina Bohannan | 74% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 74% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-10 · house · election_day · Caitlin Rourk | 2% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 2% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-13 · house · election_day · Leela Gray | 27% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 26% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 27% → 26% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH-5 · house · election_day · Brian Shaver | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-VT-AL · house · election_day · Becca Balint | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MS-2 · house · election_day · Bennie Thompson | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-KS-1 · house · election_day · Lauren Reinhold | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-25 · house · election_day · Raul Ruiz | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL-16 · house · election_day · Paul Nolley | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-50 · house · election_day · Scott Peters | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-17 · house · election_day · Matthew Montavon | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MI · senate · election_day · Abdul El-Sayed | 80% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 81% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 80% → 81% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers87c6fe9c-6c82-464f-909d-31ff40c157a7 → eeeda002-5677-4872-a59a-a96ac483de4f |
| US-MI · senate · nowcast · Abdul El-Sayed | 82% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 84% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 82% → 84% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers6adfd6d9-efbb-478b-a5a9-ff5723ed602c → 751d4c82-9e00-496a-b04a-dfb9942aafe1 |
| US-CA-46 · house · election_day · Lou Correa | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA · governor · election_day · Keisha Lance Bottoms | 62% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 63% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 62% → 63% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers90bb6e5d-614d-4b7f-a0df-633cf7dc9d31 → fdea5305-c52b-411b-a768-e79a55b0098b |
| US-GA · governor · nowcast · Keisha Lance Bottoms | 49% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 51% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 49% → 51% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersfba9ae07-9ba1-4c30-88c0-d1e1786db65e → b56268c7-04ec-4c85-84b3-4a1f0cf5fad0 |
| US-WY-AL · house · election_day · Lisa F. Kinney | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NH-2 · house · election_day · Maggie Goodlander | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA-13 · house · election_day · Jasmine Clark | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CO-2 · house · election_day · Joe Neguse | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NJ-1 · house · election_day · Donald Norcross | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL-6 · house · election_day · Sean Casten | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MA · governor · election_day · Maura Healey | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersd7b77fa9-aff0-45b0-9469-ed4ac01b6571 → 1a52eef8-9977-4a03-b966-4455a8fdba5f |
| US-MA · governor · nowcast · Maura Healey | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersffb3e497-246c-4c5f-b4ea-c4fb2368ae73 → a5e28851-574d-4429-92af-1cdde1d52729 |
| US-NV-3 · house · election_day · Susie Lee | 98% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 98% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WA-9 · house · election_day · Adam Smith | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-10 · house · election_day · Mark DeSaulnier | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-KY · senate · election_day · Charles Booker | 7% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 7% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers5a6193c9-a11a-49da-aad2-8f767e58ea2f → 0c7a416e-3867-4608-a2b4-9d31e4cdcd0d |
| US-KY · senate · nowcast · Charles Booker | 8% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 8% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersc3bd248a-3298-4ef0-b1f7-1a78658f44f6 → 1fb8a9bd-cc81-4c3f-b426-51a9fb33c567 |
| US-WI-8 · house · election_day · Rick Crosson | 3% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 3% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WI · governor · election_day · David Crowley | 78% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 78% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersa637ceb6-2bfc-4f3a-b598-078b5933e8ce → fc9c6ce3-19ec-4771-8d2e-8dc7229ada99 |
| US-WI · governor · nowcast · David Crowley | 80% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 80% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersc0c91015-fe19-4ec9-aaed-51508d01b488 → 330aa728-ea36-435f-bd16-04be42e06bd5 |
| US-GA-4 · house · election_day · Hank Johnson | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY · governor · election_day · Kathy Hochul | 99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers845c37a9-e893-49a6-b8df-98e8ad2418a4 → cab11a91-09d3-4979-98d4-cee8d0bfe339 |
| US-NY · governor · nowcast · Kathy Hochul | 99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 98% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Displayed 99% → 98% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers029c059e-bc09-4d9e-8f1c-b17d4da4d6b4 → 69dd8779-b3ee-44c2-b0c2-321630839776 |
| US-CO-6 · house · election_day · Jason Crow | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MI-1 · house · election_day · Callie Barr | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-PA-14 · house · election_day · Alan Bradstock | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-ME · governor · election_day · Hannah Pingree | 98% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 98% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersa717c0a8-9d6f-4f57-bbd5-d26da3eb3658 → 8e6bab87-ed21-4542-9a56-9f968900b099 |
| US-ME · governor · nowcast · Hannah Pingree | 98% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 98% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers853a9bfd-1ec1-4891-bba8-24d28f3fedde → 0edb8fb6-ad84-4b3d-9cb0-e9ee71065341 |
| US-CT-1 · house · election_day · Luke Bronin | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-24 · house · election_day · Salud Carbajal | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA-9 · house · election_day · Caitlyn Gegen | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OK-4 · house · election_day · Mitchell Jacob | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-OH-6 · house · election_day · Elizabeth Kirtley | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-31 · house · election_day · Justin Early | 2% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 2% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WY · governor · election_day · Kenneth Casner | <1% 2026-11-02T02:35:16Z | <1% 2026-11-02T12:16:31Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersaac01878-fdfe-4ab1-ba89-84c54076ebf2 → c40810ce-b93a-49f4-8052-fe2e503921e2 |
| US-TX-3 · house · election_day · Evan Hunt | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CO-4 · house · election_day · Eileen Laubacher | 6% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 6% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IN-9 · house · election_day · Brad Meyer | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-6 · house · election_day · Danny Minton | 1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AZ-2 · house · election_day · Jonathan Nez | 22% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 22% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-GA-7 · house · election_day · Anthony Kozycki | 6% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 5% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 6% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-PA · governor · election_day · Josh Shapiro | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers5af0e7f0-925d-4d28-8ebb-199109fa4c88 → b2ff4f8e-0563-42b0-a673-8aebaf8871b3 |
| US-PA · governor · nowcast · Josh Shapiro | >99% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | >99% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersd498b2de-f6c2-4d8e-97b7-9d716f640514 → c944ab14-8fc2-441b-ac86-4eeded348310 |
| US-NJ-10 · house · election_day · LaMonica McIver | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MD-4 · house · election_day · Glenn Ivey | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NJ-11 · house · election_day · Analilia Mejia | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IL-10 · house · election_day · Brad Schneider | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-IN-4 · house · election_day · Drew Cox | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WI-1 · house · election_day · Mitchell Berman | 21% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 21% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-10 · house · election_day · Brad Lander | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-6 · house · election_day · Richard Pan | 88% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 89% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 88% → 89% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-19 · house · election_day · Kyle Rable | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WV-2 · house · election_day · Ace Parsi | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TN-9 · house · election_day · Justin J. Pearson | 7% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 7% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MI-11 · house · election_day · Jeremy Moss | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-FL-7 · house · election_day · Bale Dalton | 71% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 72% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed 71% → 72% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MN · governor · election_day · Amy Klobuchar | 97% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 97% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersa5659c3a-f397-46a6-9a86-85a82d27db80 → 60f5746f-c74e-4254-98ba-e1e366172a41 |
| US-MN · governor · nowcast · Amy Klobuchar | 97% 2026-11-02T01:26:36Z | 97% 2026-11-02T22:32:53Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersb5168987-19d7-4d9a-934b-0380418f6782 → 2d0eafa2-63a4-45df-9ad4-79eb5febf114 |
| US-IL-2 · house · election_day · Donna Miller | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-42 · house · election_day · Robert Garcia | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CA-8 · house · election_day · John Garamendi | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-TX-18 · house · election_day · Christian Menefee | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-MI-8 · house · election_day · Kristen McDonald Rivet | 99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-11 · house · election_day · Michael DeCillis | <1% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | <1% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-WA-8 · house · election_day · Kim Schrier | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-AZ-8 · house · election_day · Bernadette Greene-Placentia | 4% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | 4% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-NY-26 · house · election_day · Tim Kennedy | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |
| US-CT-4 · house · election_day · Jim Himes | >99% 2026-11-02T02:59:29Z | >99% 2026-11-02T23:03:18Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6811e72f-6fb0-4430-b574-22d6e31e2f40 → 7daa0984-c30c-4434-9247-2d8198c8f4b9 |