Published forecasts: 2026-10-28
Last published snapshot for this Pacific day. These records were published at the time; no reconstructed forecasts are added.
Compared with the previous available closed day, 2026-10-27. Dates may be more than one day apart.
- 2026-10-27: race records · chamber records · file hashes
- 2026-10-28: race records · chamber records · file hashes
Chambers
Stored party-control bounds; unavailable values stay unavailable. The linked downloads retain model versions and run identifiers.
| Chamber / product | Earlier | Later |
|---|---|---|
| governors · election_day | D 74%–74%; R 26%–26%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-27T11:43:53Z | D 76%–76%; R 14%–14%; neither 10%; 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z |
| governors · nowcast | D 69%–69%; R 31%–31%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-27T11:43:53Z | D 72%–72%; R 18%–18%; neither 11%; 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z |
| house · election_day | D 88%–88%; R 12%–12%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | D 88%–88%; R 11%–11%; neither <1%; 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z |
| senate · election_day | D 62%–68%; R 32%–38%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-27T08:53:32Z | D 65%–70%; R 30%–35%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z |
| senate · nowcast | D 65%–69%; R 31%–35%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-27T08:53:32Z | D 66%–70%; R 30%–34%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z |
Races
Changes refer to the displayed, rounded percentages. Exact probabilities are in the downloads. Candidate changes are separate rows. A poll appearing between runs is not proof it caused a move. Poll arrivals, money and candidate events are not captured by these forecast files; the model and correction record provides other context.
| Race and subject | Earlier chance / run time | Later chance / run time | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-TX-22 · house · election_day · Marquette Greene-Scott | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NC-4 · house · election_day · Valerie Foushee | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OR · senate · election_day · Jeff Merkley | 98% 2026-10-27T08:50:10Z | 98% 2026-10-29T00:51:00Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersdedfa022-1333-4a44-8370-b3700719a477 → 0165d8cd-4213-4dc3-a4f7-4afdc5e8c994 |
| US-VA · senate · election_day · Mark Warner | 95% 2026-10-27T08:50:10Z | 97% 2026-10-29T00:51:00Z | Displayed 95% → 97% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5abdaff6-897d-4116-ae6f-66a556aaba7d → 3f6a1b9d-9f4c-45a0-a65d-c495dcc465a8 |
| US-OH-4 · house · election_day · Joshua Kolasinski | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WA-3 · house · election_day · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 50% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 53% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 50% → 53% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NC-14 · house · election_day · LaKesha Womack | 5% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 6% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 5% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OK-5 · house · election_day · Jena Nelson | 4% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 4% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MN-7 · house · election_day · Erik Osberg | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MT · senate · election_day · Seth Bodnar | 1% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 1% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierscbe1a821-343c-4309-a5c2-cf369baebb62 → 3e95547a-6011-457a-bdf7-c9de7050afa6 |
| US-MT · senate · nowcast · Seth Bodnar | 1% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 1% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse38c19a5-f66b-4bb5-a3e8-b879444aa155 → 8f1d522d-cb51-48af-897c-d278a9cfb2e8 |
| US-CA-20 · house · election_day · Sandra Van Scotter | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AL-5 · house · election_day · Andrew Sneed | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NC-1 · house · election_day · Don Davis | 86% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 86% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH-7 · house · election_day · Brian Poindexter | 86% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 85% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 86% → 85% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OK-2 · house · election_day · Brandon Wade | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NC-12 · house · election_day · Alma Adams | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TN · governor · election_day · Jerri Green | 2% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 1% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0884fa67-7364-4017-8d84-2c5ce2471d69 → 0b9b3926-7dd0-4b5d-8bf4-0e4de12420ae |
| US-TN · governor · nowcast · Jerri Green | 2% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 2% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf9ec3e17-28de-458d-8378-ed4b228cbc66 → 8cbdbe18-516f-4706-b242-82bed78a2ed6 |
| US-ID-2 · house · election_day · Ellie Gilbreath | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AZ-4 · house · election_day · Greg Stanton | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NC-9 · house · election_day · Richard Ojeda | 11% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 11% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IA-2 · house · election_day · Lindsay James | 52% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 49% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 52% → 49% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-38 · house · election_day · Melissa McDonough | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-LA-3 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-5 · house · election_day · Gregory Meeks | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AR-4 · house · election_day · James Russell | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL · senate · election_day · Angie Nixon | 12% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 13% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 12% → 13% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersffe4c637-4672-4b6a-945e-b79ec5393892 → 010e0a40-173a-4d78-9fe0-d6520d7a7b39 |
| US-FL · senate · nowcast · Angie Nixon | 9% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 10% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 9% → 10% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers05789998-6a40-4f2c-9c1a-0e4c3210dded → e8efa029-1caa-4dfa-9432-3e5ca3d7c0e7 |
| US-MN-5 · house · election_day · Ilhan Omar | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-28 · house · election_day · Henry Cuellar | 78% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 77% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 78% → 77% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NV-2 · house · election_day · Teresa Benitez-Thompson | 42% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 42% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-4 · house · election_day · Jason Pearce | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX · governor · election_day · Gina Hinojosa | 25% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 25% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa689f964-d3ba-4978-a1d4-1bbc84d97d9f → 1ca5b6a7-e199-43cc-ba63-fa2b3d75c3c9 |
| US-TX · governor · nowcast · Gina Hinojosa | 26% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 27% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 26% → 27% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers22b0c456-68b4-4d2a-8d14-fb4974eeaf5f → 9d33f5b0-3285-4a9b-8c9b-1753088084ad |
| US-MA-8 · house · election_day · Stephen Lynch | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NC-13 · house · election_day · Paul Barringer | 3% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 3% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-7 · house · election_day · Claire Valdez | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-ND-AL · house · election_day · Trygve Hammer | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL-9 · house · election_day · Daniel Biss | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MI-2 · house · election_day · Benjamin Ambrose | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MD-6 · house · election_day · April McClain Delaney | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AL-7 · house · election_day · Terri Sewell | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-33 · house · election_day · Pete Aguilar | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-24 · house · election_day · Oliver Gilbert | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-VA-2 · house · election_day · Elaine Luria | 65% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 63% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 65% → 63% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-4 · house · election_day · LaShonda Holloway | 6% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 4% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 6% → 4% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MI-10 · house · election_day · Christina Hines | 49% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 50% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 49% → 50% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MN-2 · house · election_day · Matt Little | 90% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 93% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 90% → 93% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-8 · house · election_day · Jennifer Jenkins | 3% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 3% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-51 · house · election_day · Sara Jacobs | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-16 · house · election_day · Sam Liccardo | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OR-6 · house · election_day · Andrea Salinas | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-VA-10 · house · election_day · Suhas Subramanyam | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-28 · house · election_day · Judy Chu | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL-4 · house · election_day · Patty Garcia | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OR-3 · house · election_day · Maxine Dexter | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NM · governor · election_day · Deb Haaland | 92% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 91% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 92% → 91% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0029db2c-f461-4d34-9304-6f644242949f → c429be81-86de-40cf-8c50-645bc8bb5ad2 |
| US-NM · governor · nowcast · Deb Haaland | 91% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 91% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3740f3f0-0c0a-4e80-804b-e78e878aaa20 → d905debc-29f3-4283-bee1-f6454c1cb046 |
| US-TX-29 · house · election_day · Sylvia Garcia | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OR-5 · house · election_day · Janelle Bynum | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA-3 · house · election_day · Maura Keller | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-5 · house · election_day · Michael Masuda | 2% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-21 · house · election_day · Blake Gendebien | 27% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 26% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 27% → 26% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-15 · house · election_day · Kevin Mullin | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-27 · house · election_day · Eliott Rodriguez | 16% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 16% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MO-1 · house · election_day · Wesley Bell | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-KY-1 · house · election_day · John "Drew" Williams | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-SC-3 · house · election_day · Eunice Lehmacher | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA-14 · house · election_day · Shawn Harris | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-ID · senate · election_day · Todd Achilles | 3% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 3% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers55557c79-63eb-4b9b-8596-9db2f18f5d41 → 4254b9f6-d856-47d1-983d-197b56b945b3 |
| US-ID · senate · nowcast · Todd Achilles | 2% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 2% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers72902000-4124-45d8-ac6f-1b2a1e577772 → 094b96e7-9b2b-404a-af2d-032131a46f84 |
| US-TN-2 · house · election_day · Michaela Barnett | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CO-7 · house · election_day · Brittany Pettersen | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-PA-8 · house · election_day · Paige Cognetti | 58% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 57% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 58% → 57% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-KS-2 · house · election_day · Don Coover | 3% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 3% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-14 · house · election_day · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH · governor · election_day · Amy Acton | 73% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 73% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers44d7cda2-a62d-42ae-9684-5cddddab0a70 → eefcdb96-9c81-4040-8a54-446b687170a1 |
| US-OH · governor · nowcast · Amy Acton | 78% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 76% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 78% → 76% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers32e90005-ae2f-4964-a7f9-0f0ce1417e34 → 42db41f7-3ec8-4057-8a16-14a7b96b1b8f |
| US-AR · governor · election_day · Fredrick Love | 3% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 3% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2f9fa9eb-a299-4cce-a909-3825427cbc2b → b9b64813-ac56-49a3-95e8-350044da7a51 |
| US-AR · governor · nowcast · Fredrick Love | 6% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 6% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersaee93709-9c98-4b8d-b08b-a16a21a7ba3e → b6de2adb-0de1-4467-bbfe-e12489db884e |
| US-MO-6 · house · election_day · Josh Smead | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-KS · senate · election_day · Adam Hamilton | 40% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 43% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 40% → 43% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers8dc06679-a7e5-45a9-9ef9-fa4d359e7acf → ad6b6870-3679-491c-a6d7-5077fdb08a01 |
| US-KS · senate · nowcast · Adam Hamilton | 56% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 56% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersdf6eb51f-29e7-484d-9436-b2407e882ba0 → fb74814d-bd91-4972-a22c-159ebc892eb1 |
| US-ME · senate · election_day · Troy Jackson | 55% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 58% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 55% → 58% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers612552cd-2af2-4265-8fc0-9d7daf819f0b → fad88c75-f0c1-46f2-aa1d-096cda84a863 |
| US-ME · senate · nowcast · Troy Jackson | 68% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 68% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierseb4eac87-92ee-4ee8-bca7-fc35735e4cf7 → 1f047f2e-215d-4ad7-b53f-833fcb444ceb |
| US-CA-13 · house · election_day · Adam Gray | 98% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 98% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-17 · house · election_day · Casey Shepard | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL-11 · house · election_day · Bill Foster | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-28 · house · election_day · Phil Ehr | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MO-5 · house · election_day · Emanuel Cleaver | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-22 · house · election_day · John Mannion | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MD · governor · election_day · Wes Moore | >99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | >99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers990b2b8f-cccc-4c30-9d69-89a7cde68413 → 887d86db-7ca3-4ffe-8f4b-30d1e51a4d31 |
| US-MD · governor · nowcast · Wes Moore | >99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | >99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1119574c-d939-4ff0-9851-1ea5d1fc7d28 → fa4aadd1-f8f2-456f-b3d2-ee45d417a2ed |
| US-CO-5 · house · election_day · Jessica Killin | 45% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 42% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 45% → 42% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-2 · house · election_day · Amanda Green | 6% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 7% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 6% → 7% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MA-3 · house · election_day · Lori Trahan | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH-3 · house · election_day · Joyce Beatty | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NH · governor · election_day · Cinde Warmington | 7% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 7% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers82c33a40-d96d-489e-a711-5259ba283843 → 8b338e7f-68a8-4b3b-afd9-da20dc8e387c |
| US-NH · governor · nowcast · Cinde Warmington | 4% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 4% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb2113a5c-937a-420d-9be2-a4adc565dae7 → abd4ef35-670f-4799-abdd-814a071c8d02 |
| US-NC-7 · house · election_day · Kimberly Hardy | 7% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 6% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 7% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WV · senate · election_day · Rachel Fetty Anderson | 1% 2026-10-27T08:50:10Z | 1% 2026-10-29T00:51:00Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse62f3e3d-0e26-46b9-8748-83cc37c3e395 → 169bb814-5cf7-4065-9c66-b86fa8c35099 |
| US-OK · senate · election_day · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | 1% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 1% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers4afd2f6f-8c71-4560-ab72-87d1d6a279c8 → 13abe701-3f0f-45cd-a9c7-8eba29d177f9 |
| US-OK · senate · nowcast · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | <1% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | <1% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers7636c8c1-7f0e-41cc-ba5c-c4325ac8c33e → b68f6e6b-2746-475e-a177-ed8bb0954f4c |
| US-CA-32 · house · election_day · Brad Sherman | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NE · senate · election_day · Dan Osborn | 47% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 47% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers72b92be1-fdbb-45b6-a771-b6d9a7e694b4 → 4321c2f1-0b5c-4d75-b2f3-49ce7115f91f |
| US-NE · senate · nowcast · Dan Osborn | 47% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 47% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6360cb9f-db35-49c4-8c4e-45154e0fed89 → 9b115e67-5d48-4113-8fc2-902c6bb8ca9e |
| US-TN-1 · house · election_day · Kristi Burke | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-12 · house · election_day · Angela Rodriguez Prilliman | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MS-4 · house · election_day · Jeffrey Hulum III | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OK-1 · house · election_day · John Croisant | 2% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WA-2 · house · election_day · Rick Larsen | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-SC-7 · house · election_day · John Vincent | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OK-3 · house · election_day · Suzie Byrd | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-ID · governor · election_day · Terri Pickens | <1% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | <1% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd013760c-bbc9-46f3-8c1b-818120c83daf → a9ff6de6-d2b2-4e34-a608-5be334b37c6e |
| US-ID · governor · nowcast · Terri Pickens | 1% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 1% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers14129609-fe18-4414-bca5-c60e36324bb0 → c4c2110a-63f3-4073-92d4-b517c8a9aee7 |
| US-TX-8 · house · election_day · Laura Jones | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA-1 · house · election_day · Amanda Hollowell | 6% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 7% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 6% → 7% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-UT-1 · house · election_day · Ben McAdams | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL · senate · election_day · Juliana Stratton | 98% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 98% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers93d6bfeb-c3d8-44c4-9bf3-f84e4aa7392b → a9f3619d-580b-4219-a6ad-bb1ad7540f7f |
| US-IL · senate · nowcast · Juliana Stratton | 97% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 97% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd107a751-0c4a-4160-b3b7-4e257da1a013 → 5fdae14a-b038-4047-a017-f4af8371788b |
| US-ME-1 · house · election_day · Chellie Pingree | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-PA-2 · house · election_day · Brendan Boyle | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH · senate · election_day · Sherrod Brown | 76% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 73% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 76% → 73% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa0d097e8-52ee-4e72-a85f-6084cbd7b4ee → 969b3239-f268-4732-b2c2-0dad57affdd6 |
| US-OH · senate · nowcast · Sherrod Brown | 78% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 77% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 78% → 77% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersdf1a4f36-3b78-4118-a533-30824a526863 → dcbfd7f7-0494-4baa-9c0e-a16310a2aced |
| US-CA-23 · house · election_day · Tessa Lynn Hodge | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WA-7 · house · election_day · Pramila Jayapal | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MN-6 · house · election_day · Doug Chapin | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-1 · house · election_day · Chris Gallant | 15% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 14% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 15% → 14% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AZ-7 · house · election_day · Adelita Grijalva | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CT-3 · house · election_day · Rosa DeLauro | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-PA-4 · house · election_day · Madeleine Dean | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-23 · house · election_day · Aaron Gies | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NJ-6 · house · election_day · Frank Pallone | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-2 · house · election_day · Shaun Finnie | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-UT-2 · house · election_day · Peter Crosby | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-KY-5 · house · election_day · Ned Pillersdorf | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-16 · house · election_day · Kelly Kirschner | 22% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 23% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 22% → 23% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL-5 · house · election_day · Mike Quigley | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MS-3 · house · election_day · Michael Chiaradio | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH-15 · house · election_day · Don Leonard | 37% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 40% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 37% → 40% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MA-4 · house · election_day · Jake Auchincloss | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-LA-4 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-11 · house · election_day · James Pericola | 7% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 8% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 7% → 8% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-14 · house · election_day · Thurman Bartie | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-ME-2 · house · election_day · Matthew Dunlap | 43% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 44% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 43% → 44% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IA · governor · election_day · Rob Sand | 85% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 85% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierscd30a45a-eaa7-4aa7-9539-4d1ab12dff5a → a6ae5cc8-eb75-44a0-a098-806f7e0c0fe1 |
| US-IA · governor · nowcast · Rob Sand | 93% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 92% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 93% → 92% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5fe7e798-fb3f-4086-b6c9-d2bc33c75978 → a5050c8c-bc2e-41f8-9367-e60dd1d17ee6 |
| US-PA-10 · house · election_day · Janelle Stelson | 68% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 68% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-RI · governor · election_day · Helena Foulkes | 99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0e66db4d-101d-4c3a-aa96-2078f2dfea46 → 582a932f-3eb5-4313-ba1c-afea582ca57a |
| US-RI · governor · nowcast · Helena Foulkes | 99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd769e756-0b82-44a7-8528-bc537ae1713a → 5caa48bf-edde-4e4b-980b-b7f34eb715a5 |
| US-FL-6 · house · election_day · Eric Yonce | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CT · governor · election_day · Ned Lamont | >99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | >99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5db3f76a-6201-4ad3-83b2-a6c0c4469b7d → 4cd2e601-a7b0-4f3a-9670-780f99d7cd1a |
| US-CT · governor · nowcast · Ned Lamont | >99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | >99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers70700b4e-fd18-409d-a277-13b9adbb97e0 → 87e76d9a-0cb2-4e25-9ad8-d565037b1b3c |
| US-AL · senate · election_day · Everett Wess | 2% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 1% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5cb58d06-e18b-4b66-b594-155c9ef1c212 → 07bd2b04-1291-44d0-b38c-155bb7d199bd |
| US-AL · senate · nowcast · Everett Wess | 2% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 2% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers44024a62-008d-4b38-9bc5-0b0d8bc07ac9 → a84eea09-471f-4128-ad4b-f570d86828c7 |
| US-FL-5 · house · election_day · Rachel Grage | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AL-4 · house · election_day · Amanda Pusczek | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MN · senate · election_day · Peggy Flanagan | 89% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 90% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 89% → 90% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersbe24199e-ad31-4e82-8f06-17d1e5172c33 → 58d431b3-52eb-47ee-acdf-dc28858f9e1f |
| US-MN · senate · nowcast · Peggy Flanagan | 77% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 81% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 77% → 81% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers75b9892f-9d0f-4b4f-a9b4-49cb46403409 → dbb4f102-b0b1-4b75-ae9c-224c5551e3fd |
| US-TN-7 · house · election_day · Darden Copeland | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-15 · house · election_day · Robert People | 2% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-43 · house · election_day · Maxine Waters | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CO · governor · election_day · Phil Weiser | 98% 2026-10-27T08:50:10Z | 97% 2026-10-29T00:51:00Z | Displayed 98% → 97% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb29a744e-fce7-4117-bc23-dd16db23c52a → 6e46c425-5fd9-4c28-a490-a45e6fbcbeb2 |
| US-WI-6 · house · election_day · Brad Smith | 2% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 3% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 2% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MD-7 · house · election_day · Kweisi Mfume | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MN-3 · house · election_day · Kelly Morrison | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-32 · house · election_day · Dan Barrios | 5% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 6% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 5% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TN-4 · house · election_day · Victoria Broderick | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MD-2 · house · election_day · Johnny Olszewski | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TN-8 · house · election_day · Heidi Kuhn | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NE-3 · house · election_day · Becky Stille | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MS · senate · election_day · Scott Colom | 9% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 7% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 9% → 7% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersc40ac16e-164e-4f39-986e-4346dae53a65 → 3c074613-ed0c-4910-a49a-6c4a4769d084 |
| US-MS · senate · nowcast · Scott Colom | 18% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 17% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 18% → 17% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5480f20d-9451-414d-8f60-f084155c16ef → a8ad3961-8935-46d8-8762-9dc6cd35289b |
| US-NM-3 · house · election_day · Teresa Leger Fernández | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NJ-2 · house · election_day · Zack Mullock | 4% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 3% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 4% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-KY-2 · house · election_day · Megan Wingfield | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL-14 · house · election_day · Lauren Underwood | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-34 · house · election_day · Vicente Gonzalez | 74% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 75% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 74% → 75% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX · senate · election_day · James Talarico | 62% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 64% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 62% → 64% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0ac15434-efb2-4070-84a2-24b99d41a716 → 03c08ba2-c40b-433b-b343-99a8c80f56d6 |
| US-TX · senate · nowcast · James Talarico | 69% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 70% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 69% → 70% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9b005038-d989-4097-b493-d0215c931a6d → be488592-43f5-4f8a-8db5-9633db5ad793 |
| US-OH-13 · house · election_day · Emilia Sykes | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL · governor · election_day · David Jolly | 20% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 22% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 20% → 22% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd9178f2-1c75-4f8b-882b-a79f87cce9f3 → 67003112-6d6b-4852-a820-9469d26696a4 |
| US-FL · governor · nowcast · David Jolly | 17% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 17% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3a2103dd-b284-422b-aafd-5736203f3bd1 → 30999511-2a03-4c50-9c77-4d534bf6560b |
| US-MI-13 · house · election_day · Donavan McKinney | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NJ-12 · house · election_day · Adam Hamawy | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-SC-6 · house · election_day · Jim Clyburn | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH-9 · house · election_day · Marcy Kaptur | 82% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 82% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WI-3 · house · election_day · Rebecca Cooke | 58% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 59% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 58% → 59% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NE-2 · house · election_day · Denise Powell | 89% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 91% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 89% → 91% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-VA-3 · house · election_day · Bobby Scott | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-VA-6 · house · election_day · Beth Macy | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-22 · house · election_day · Randy Villegas | 47% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 46% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 47% → 46% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH-8 · house · election_day · Vanessa Enoch | 4% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 5% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 4% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AZ · governor · election_day · Katie Hobbs | 95% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 96% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 95% → 96% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers34c5b342-317d-4526-9117-5d412ded9a03 → 8c25b6a5-63c4-4659-bc44-89f744a68ec5 |
| US-AZ · governor · nowcast · Katie Hobbs | 94% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 95% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 94% → 95% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a70fc82-811c-462c-9f7d-e36df507aad2 → 4dae31df-bfde-489a-82ef-360077ec9074 |
| US-VT · governor · election_day · Amanda Janoo | 7% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 9% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 7% → 9% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6732d89c-709a-409f-94c0-f674c19a5698 → 4db10313-fc4e-443b-9d6a-2d16232e597c |
| US-VT · governor · nowcast · Amanda Janoo | 15% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 18% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 15% → 18% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfc3afe69-70ca-4770-957f-7ea86f76c00e → 662b8651-350b-40f5-bff6-8bf5536236b2 |
| US-MI-6 · house · election_day · Debbie Dingell | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MI-7 · house · election_day · William Lawrence | 60% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 62% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 60% → 62% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IN-3 · house · election_day · Kelly Thompson | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WA-5 · house · election_day · Carmela Conroy | 3% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 3% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-LA · senate · election_day · Jamie Davis | 12% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 11% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 12% → 11% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierseb0f2c74-bf82-4227-8539-ee4db9d1da8f → 2aa576b2-d72a-4aef-83b9-df86634126c0 |
| US-LA · senate · nowcast · Jamie Davis | 16% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 17% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 16% → 17% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersc1c4c5a9-5c13-4b54-bc39-a973310850b3 → d463f9d1-fd30-4ad0-8b97-3456735e7d19 |
| US-NE · governor · election_day · Lynne Walz | 22% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 18% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 22% → 18% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersde6c74fb-06f3-4360-a096-dfcbd19ef67e → 08f7a8cd-f2be-47d3-90cb-497c0d09744b |
| US-NE · governor · nowcast · Lynne Walz | 29% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 26% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 29% → 26% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersc9b4768f-2973-4b1c-a685-a01f37a8c9c6 → 6337e44f-71e5-4982-885f-ead10286c4ae |
| US-TX-1 · house · election_day · Yolanda Prince | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-39 · house · election_day · Mark Takano | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-35 · house · election_day · Johnny Garcia | 47% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 48% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 47% → 48% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-PA-9 · house · election_day · Rachel Wallace | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NC-11 · house · election_day · Jamie Ager | 88% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 88% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MT-2 · house · election_day · Brian Miller | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NC-5 · house · election_day · Chuck Hubbard | 6% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 7% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 6% → 7% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MI-3 · house · election_day · Hillary Scholten | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA-11 · house · election_day · Chris Harden | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-13 · house · election_day · Mark Nair | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-KS · governor · election_day · Cindy Holscher | 36% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 36% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersba3a3d12-f364-498c-b8d4-4b9a1b6c0c3f → eb2b3e7d-f8df-4f20-a281-3d4ebda9e59b |
| US-KS · governor · nowcast · Cindy Holscher | 29% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 29% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf6dbaae0-05d5-4471-823f-e196f84ee48f → f435a2fa-5994-4b31-9755-ea3dc4ce1958 |
| US-AL-6 · house · election_day · Maurice Mercer | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NE-1 · house · election_day · Chris Backemeyer | 18% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 17% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 18% → 17% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WI-5 · house · election_day · Andrew Beck | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-HI · governor · election_day · Josh Green | 99% 2026-10-27T08:50:10Z | 99% 2026-10-29T00:51:00Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers789afe89-8e34-4c38-bbfa-f60722476427 → 686db827-715a-44d1-bab8-511c23f68d6e |
| US-FL-21 · house · election_day · James Martin | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-25 · house · election_day · Dione Sims | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WA-4 · house · election_day · John Duresky | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-48 · house · election_day · Marni von Wilpert | 87% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 85% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 87% → 85% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-9 · house · election_day · Darren Soto | 45% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 46% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 45% → 46% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-2 · house · election_day · Patrick Halpin | 2% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-2 · house · election_day · Jared Huffman | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IN-8 · house · election_day · Mary Allen | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-RI-2 · house · election_day · Seth Magaziner | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH-1 · house · election_day · Greg Landsman | 93% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 95% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 93% → 95% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WY · senate · election_day · James W. Byrd | <1% 2026-10-27T08:50:10Z | <1% 2026-10-29T00:51:00Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers794587cb-658a-4c49-9591-601d0e6398b0 → 5412de60-8ef4-46f4-9f60-f40d06f8241e |
| US-CA-18 · house · election_day · Zoe Lofgren | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-47 · house · election_day · Dave Min | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-UT-4 · house · election_day · Jonny Larsen | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL-13 · house · election_day · Nikki Budzinski | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NC · senate · election_day · Roy Cooper | 96% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 96% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse93b3b78-d239-4e22-90e6-f464d7f4487e → 1ea6609d-2c0d-4594-ae02-f5bb47a0cc7e |
| US-NC · senate · nowcast · Roy Cooper | 97% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 97% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers41057278-75e1-4834-8f35-06f03daf5c42 → 8028739a-e846-4764-88b3-765a7f02c2f7 |
| US-NV-1 · house · election_day · Dina Titus | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 98% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 99% → 98% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-4 · house · election_day · Laura Gillen | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 98% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 99% → 98% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NJ-4 · house · election_day · Rachel Peace | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OR · governor · election_day · Tina Kotek | 81% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 83% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 81% → 83% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse9ccb1c3-11e8-4bbd-95ee-58106642243a → 89388868-aa20-45eb-81aa-8f4096e54822 |
| US-OR · governor · nowcast · Tina Kotek | 57% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 56% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 57% → 56% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers04d10a01-30f4-43bd-8b14-be428f5cdf39 → 69ad9906-6597-4fed-be15-9345af24b183 |
| US-SC · governor · election_day · Jermaine Johnson | 5% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 5% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb5c30704-7870-4a98-a70d-afc9d2f39100 → c655216d-951d-477e-96d6-dcc6bcb1641a |
| US-SC · governor · nowcast · Jermaine Johnson | 3% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 3% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersc790ecc6-a679-4fc5-90a6-93c9ad9b94bd → bf3a4d95-2b97-4232-8525-f027a00013af |
| US-MN-8 · house · election_day · Trina Swanson | 3% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 4% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 3% → 4% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA-6 · house · election_day · Lucy McBath | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-SD · senate · election_day · Brian Bengs | 6% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 6% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfdca875f-b150-43da-8abe-db492b85d11f → 8f678b6a-4cad-4d7f-b7b2-b802aa1da98f |
| US-SD · senate · nowcast · Brian Bengs | 5% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 5% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9442f9c1-edf1-4b12-967b-a615138c184d → 79ed517d-ac68-4643-aeb0-64aa1f4811fd |
| US-ID-1 · house · election_day · Kaylee Peterson | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH-2 · house · election_day · Jennifer Mazzuckelli | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-1 · house · election_day · Gay Valimont | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-31 · house · election_day · Gil Cisneros | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-HI-2 · house · election_day · Jill Tokuda | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-VA-8 · house · election_day · Don Beyer | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CO-1 · house · election_day · Melat Kiros | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-PA-11 · house · election_day · Nancy Mannion | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AR · senate · election_day · Hallie Shoffner | 5% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 6% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 5% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers40f46a98-28b9-4b3d-b40b-5dd17dce67dc → 538741ba-5611-4c3e-afb0-5310eca86e53 |
| US-AR · senate · nowcast · Hallie Shoffner | 13% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 13% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb7b05809-ed9c-4046-b9bd-c68c4ea7a537 → 359a986a-206b-4f7a-91d3-a4f82fe44208 |
| US-PA-15 · house · election_day · Ray Bilger | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AZ-5 · house · election_day · Elizabeth Lee | 4% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 4% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NC-2 · house · election_day · Deborah Ross | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MN-4 · house · election_day · Betty McCollum | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-3 · house · election_day · Ami Bera | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NC-6 · house · election_day · Cyril Jefferson | 4% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 4% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IA-3 · house · election_day · Sarah Trone Garriott | 76% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 73% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 76% → 73% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-DE-AL · house · election_day · Sarah McBride | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OR-4 · house · election_day · Val Hoyle | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-PA-17 · house · election_day · Chris Deluzio | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA-5 · house · election_day · Nikema Williams | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NM-1 · house · election_day · Melanie Stansbury | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-41 · house · election_day · Linda Sánchez | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-38 · house · election_day · Hilda Solis | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-LA-1 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-14 · house · election_day · Kathy Castor | 86% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 85% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 86% → 85% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MD-8 · house · election_day · Jamie Raskin | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH-14 · house · election_day · Maria Jukic | 2% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-12 · house · election_day · Micah Lasher | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-21 · house · election_day · Jim Costa | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NJ-9 · house · election_day · Nellie Pou | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AL-1 · house · election_day · Clyde Jones | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-18 · house · election_day · Pat Ryan | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-PA-1 · house · election_day · Bob Harvie | 29% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 29% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-6 · house · election_day · Grace Meng | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA · governor · election_day · Xavier Becerra | >99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | >99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd1932443-cabb-4427-9b95-125826533294 → 69812e24-3342-4721-8fed-acd98f176e59 |
| US-CA · governor · nowcast · Xavier Becerra | >99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | >99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersab9f0add-10cd-4988-978b-9053663df7bc → 980b0b02-6745-4722-845a-96796579e338 |
| US-WI-4 · house · election_day · Gwen Moore | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AL · governor · election_day · Doug Jones | 2% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 2% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers344cb982-0880-49e6-91dd-ee687daeadee → 7e63c806-8525-4533-85d9-477fefe1ee6f |
| US-AL · governor · nowcast · Doug Jones | 2% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 2% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0037e452-ef9d-4871-8959-753e3a45be97 → 4702cb1f-3705-4cd9-9a3e-7c2e9baf78be |
| US-FL-25 · house · election_day · Jared Moskowitz | 78% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 81% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 78% → 81% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-24 · house · election_day · Kevin Burge | 4% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 4% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL-3 · house · election_day · Delia Ramirez | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA-10 · house · election_day · Pamela DeLancy | 4% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 3% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 4% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-26 · house · election_day · Nicole Locklin | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MO-4 · house · election_day · Jordan Herrera | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-PA-7 · house · election_day · Bob Brooks | 70% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 70% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-VA-7 · house · election_day · Eugene Vindman | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL-12 · house · election_day · Julie Fortier | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OK · governor · election_day · Cyndi Munson | 17% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 16% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 17% → 16% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersc89c9f42-1293-490d-8a6f-6fd63c473ec3 → abc6cd43-45cc-4508-93a9-307c8da2a71f |
| US-OK · governor · nowcast · Cyndi Munson | 29% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 29% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1725096f-29b3-41c2-994a-b2e905e1a6d2 → 87503358-23da-4064-b0d5-35454a04d3bc |
| US-TN-3 · house · election_day · Anna Golladay | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MI · governor · election_day · Jocelyn Benson | 93% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 94% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 93% → 94% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers60372798-751e-4846-93f5-537bc3a6c6e9 → 6f0c722a-86b9-4ee6-930f-f8e3ef79c742 |
| US-MI · governor · nowcast · Jocelyn Benson | 94% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 94% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers8929845f-0780-4eb6-b8c0-3a9f769c59b5 → ca3f014d-ee7b-4d4b-97bd-670e41a337a1 |
| US-MA · senate · election_day · Ed Markey | >99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | >99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers56df51d8-cad9-4ac0-a4d2-e9fd15195802 → 27afb8f8-044a-4b45-bd75-376b12b62c36 |
| US-MA · senate · nowcast · Ed Markey | >99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | >99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf15a7bdf-f116-4763-8fed-708ea8ef59fb → 988368c6-274b-4b65-9859-385caed787eb |
| US-IL-7 · house · election_day · La Shawn Ford | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH-11 · house · election_day · Shontel Brown | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-VA-5 · house · election_day · Tom Perriello | 17% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 18% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 17% → 18% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL-1 · house · election_day · Jonathan Jackson | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AR-2 · house · election_day · Chris Jones | 24% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 23% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 24% → 23% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-23 · house · election_day · Lois Frankel | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AK · governor · election_day · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 89% 2026-10-28T00:09:44Z | 89% 2026-10-29T00:51:03Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf7097882-3863-4bec-ae64-8fa83d256c7c → 624b92e3-81ae-45cb-a205-135c18d134fd |
| US-AK · governor · nowcast · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 90% 2026-10-28T00:09:44Z | 91% 2026-10-29T00:51:03Z | Displayed 90% → 91% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers748a74ad-a17f-4296-be5a-b591020a474c → 15ce14e9-4012-4a8e-acf5-5fe4bb44a04c |
| US-MI-5 · house · election_day · Christian Vukasovich | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NH-1 · house · election_day · Stefany Shaheen | 84% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 84% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-VA-11 · house · election_day · James Walkinshaw | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-22 · house · election_day · Pia Dandiya | 62% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 59% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 62% → 59% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-18 · house · election_day · Curtis Gibson | 2% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AK-AL · house · election_day · Bill Hill | 36% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 30% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 36% → 30% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-1 · house · election_day · Mike McGuire | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-RI-1 · house · election_day · Gabe Amo | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MO-8 · house · election_day · Christopher Reichard | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NJ · senate · election_day · Cory Booker | 94% 2026-10-27T08:50:10Z | 95% 2026-10-29T00:51:00Z | Displayed 94% → 95% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse0cddbbd-a2a3-4d67-960d-ea4f413d55a3 → d0f553d4-91c4-49e4-8dc6-820cab5b3db9 |
| US-PA-12 · house · election_day · Summer Lee | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-KY-4 · house · election_day · Melissa Claire Strange | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-3 · house · election_day · Tom Suozzi | 95% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 97% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 95% → 97% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IN-7 · house · election_day · André Carson | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IA · senate · election_day · Josh Turek | 49% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 48% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 49% → 48% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb146feb0-fd49-4275-a961-c0e645339417 → 25ff4464-50f8-4bad-a027-4b92d9626dd7 |
| US-IA · senate · nowcast · Josh Turek | 52% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 52% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers86287173-e1f5-432e-88bd-a72d23b9c111 → c25d98a6-36ed-425f-afce-7e588f9b9cb1 |
| US-NY-13 · house · election_day · Darializa Avila Chevalier | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-36 · house · election_day · Rhonda Hart | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-23 · house · election_day · Katy Padilla Stout | 21% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 24% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 21% → 24% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-7 · house · election_day · Lizzie Fletcher | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IA-4 · house · election_day · Dave Dawson | 2% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CO · senate · election_day · John Hickenlooper | 97% 2026-10-27T08:50:10Z | 98% 2026-10-29T00:51:00Z | Displayed 97% → 98% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers17a4ca5f-1f3e-4a49-93a4-57bc9045d3da → b176a641-28a1-4f47-8660-deb8fbfe31ad |
| US-AL-3 · house · election_day · Lee McInnis | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-36 · house · election_day · Ted Lieu | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MT-1 · house · election_day · Sam Forstag | 41% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 43% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 41% → 43% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MD-5 · house · election_day · Adrian Boafo | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-19 · house · election_day · Jimmy Panetta | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-33 · house · election_day · Colin Allred | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-20 · house · election_day · Paul Tonko | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA-2 · house · election_day · Sanford Bishop | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NC-3 · house · election_day · Raymond Smith Jr. | 24% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 22% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 24% → 22% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-52 · house · election_day · Juan Vargas | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OR-2 · house · election_day · Chris Beck | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-LA-5 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OR-1 · house · election_day · Suzanne Bonamici | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NM · senate · election_day · Ben Ray Luján | 97% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 97% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersdf60ea57-b5aa-4606-8406-803b2bcc4861 → 980e10e9-5914-44c2-a5eb-a8f4dc5a3d36 |
| US-NM · senate · nowcast · Ben Ray Luján | 96% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 96% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers99a88e95-2b40-4430-8067-e87747f79177 → b03c6933-b89c-4212-b92c-ea6ecb36f5a3 |
| US-NC-10 · house · election_day · Ashley Bell | 3% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 3% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH-12 · house · election_day · Jerrad Christian | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MO-2 · house · election_day · Fred Wellman | 46% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 45% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 46% → 45% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-PA-16 · house · election_day · Justin Wagner | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-26 · house · election_day · Jacqui Irwin | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WA-10 · house · election_day · Marilyn Strickland | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-KS-4 · house · election_day · Katy Tyndell | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CO-8 · house · election_day · Manny Rutinel | 67% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 66% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 67% → 66% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MI-4 · house · election_day · Sean McCann | 45% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 43% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 45% → 43% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-30 · house · election_day · Laura Friedman | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-5 · house · election_day · Chelsey Hockett | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MO-3 · house · election_day · Bethany Mann | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-SD · governor · election_day · Dan Ahlers | 2% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 1% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers30a98116-8b27-459e-9a6d-6090b92b966a → fb184597-b4b3-4b30-91b0-5a866865c946 |
| US-SD · governor · nowcast · Dan Ahlers | 3% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 3% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersc2ed833f-0e55-48f6-999d-33ecc45c4ee8 → 1a25d255-4ef7-4c6d-88ba-38447514f791 |
| US-AR-3 · house · election_day · Robb Ryerse | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-17 · house · election_day · Ro Khanna | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MI-9 · house · election_day · Ray Pooley | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-11 · house · election_day · Claire Reynolds | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-SC · senate · election_day · Annie Andrews | 22% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 26% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 22% → 26% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers58d552a0-e173-4607-a1fa-885d2e24364b → d2d06b9a-bcfa-48fb-b6a5-5e3daca54b33 |
| US-SC · senate · nowcast · Annie Andrews | 31% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 33% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 31% → 33% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersdfd4af11-a48a-4e57-8fa9-e72db02e3338 → 26dba3e0-031f-4d13-aa15-5cd2521ac0ba |
| US-IL-15 · house · election_day · Jennifer Todd | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-9 · house · election_day · Yvette Clarke | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA · senate · election_day · Jon Ossoff | 94% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 96% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 94% → 96% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers4338b7cd-a039-4985-bf86-7360ad9b9936 → 742c48c9-845b-4ace-87f4-7227ba419f67 |
| US-GA · senate · nowcast · Jon Ossoff | 94% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 95% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 94% → 95% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers79d15d39-550e-48ae-8054-4a6352d08a80 → b46adedf-92e3-4cbf-b1d2-9c3af0c175cc |
| US-NY-19 · house · election_day · Josh Riley | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-VA-4 · house · election_day · Jennifer McClellan | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MS-1 · house · election_day · Cliff Johnson | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-DE · senate · election_day · Chris Coons | 99% 2026-10-27T08:50:10Z | 99% 2026-10-29T00:51:00Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers8aa3bb8a-abca-4746-a216-0ba91d029052 → 4981c176-83ba-4528-8f32-765755030f07 |
| US-IL · governor · election_day · JB Pritzker | 98% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 98% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers97b07a87-1af9-46b3-bc2c-6cf345a28000 → de7922d2-cf3b-44f2-87c1-ade094afeb52 |
| US-IL · governor · nowcast · JB Pritzker | 99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2129901d-40ca-4d98-b9cc-0bbbe402e601 → a0ff038e-29eb-4c3c-a8ec-d2419bd31514 |
| US-WA-6 · house · election_day · Emily Randall | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-19 · house · election_day · Victor Arias | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-SC-1 · house · election_day · Nancy Lacore | 37% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 36% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 37% → 36% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH-10 · house · election_day · Kristina Knickerbocker | 9% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 8% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 9% → 8% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-3 · house · election_day · Seth Harp | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-RI · senate · election_day · Jack Reed | >99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | >99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersec5e0c33-262c-4bfb-9a79-54ec5893aabc → 12981c9a-2201-4d8c-bd8b-b0f6417438bd |
| US-RI · senate · nowcast · Jack Reed | >99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | >99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0de20371-70dd-4e09-823e-c8d366e9ce81 → 9e6de4bf-ff69-4b14-bc99-211135992400 |
| US-CA-44 · house · election_day · Nanette Barragán | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NH · senate · election_day · Chris Pappas | 91% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 92% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 91% → 92% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersaa20db6f-518d-4067-89a2-0b315fe3ddd9 → 45089d54-a2d5-4be6-9e17-f91a54baa455 |
| US-NH · senate · nowcast · Chris Pappas | 87% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 88% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 87% → 88% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersbf728639-f24a-4d4b-b930-c45cecd49ee5 → 14e96fe7-21ec-47cc-89ee-a37d688ff590 |
| US-AZ-9 · house · election_day · Danielle Sterbinsky | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-17 · house · election_day · Cait Conley | 51% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 49% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 51% → 49% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-21 · house · election_day · Kristin Hook | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MA-6 · house · election_day · Dan Koh | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL-17 · house · election_day · Eric Sorensen | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NM-2 · house · election_day · Gabe Vasquez | 84% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 82% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 84% → 82% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-VA-9 · house · election_day · Joy Powers | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IN-1 · house · election_day · Frank Mrvan | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-8 · house · election_day · Hakeem Jeffries | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AR-1 · house · election_day · Terri Yarbrough | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-KY-6 · house · election_day · Zach Dembo | 57% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 59% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 57% → 59% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MI-12 · house · election_day · Rashida Tlaib | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TN-6 · house · election_day · Mike Croley | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-PA-5 · house · election_day · Mary Gay Scanlon | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NV · governor · election_day · Aaron Ford | 38% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 46% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 38% → 46% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2353c73e-e2e7-4b94-83a7-7d7c3dd75a82 → 292482ca-1616-48ef-8ff0-54efeafbc703 |
| US-NV · governor · nowcast · Aaron Ford | 32% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 42% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 32% → 42% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0ba45b0c-7f1a-4a68-b2f3-0b896e7d590d → 42aaa724-db61-45dd-9c15-e869268766a2 |
| US-SC-4 · house · election_day · Courtney McClain | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IN-5 · house · election_day · J.D. Ford | 16% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 22% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 16% → 22% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-35 · house · election_day · Norma Torres | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-24 · house · election_day · Alissa Ellman | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-LA-6 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AZ-1 · house · election_day · Amish Shah | 72% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 70% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 72% → 70% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WV-1 · house · election_day · Vince George | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NJ-3 · house · election_day · Herb Conaway | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IN-2 · house · election_day · Jamee Decio | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-27 · house · election_day · George Whitesides | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-37 · house · election_day · Greg Casar | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-49 · house · election_day · Mike Levin | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TN-5 · house · election_day · Chaz Molder | 13% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 11% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 13% → 11% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA-12 · house · election_day · Ceretta Smith | 3% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 3% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AZ-6 · house · election_day · JoAnna Mendoza | 67% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 66% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 67% → 66% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-SC-2 · house · election_day · Zyon Khalifa | 5% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 5% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-20 · house · election_day · Joaquin Castro | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WA-1 · house · election_day · Suzan DelBene | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-PA-13 · house · election_day · Beth Farnham | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AK · senate · election_day · Mary Peltola | 57% 2026-10-28T00:09:44Z | 57% 2026-10-29T00:51:03Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9de18298-6fa2-48ed-9aae-505cff5d1362 → f31173f2-64c1-41db-a01d-07abd15ecc00 |
| US-AK · senate · nowcast · Mary Peltola | 57% 2026-10-28T00:09:44Z | 58% 2026-10-29T00:51:03Z | Displayed 57% → 58% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers28ec3efe-c170-4073-b299-93b88ef75541 → 728bb14f-2366-4502-9faa-061489705b82 |
| US-NJ-7 · house · election_day · Rebecca Bennett | 70% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 69% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 70% → 69% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TN · senate · election_day · Marquita Bradshaw | 1% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 1% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers350d6ede-0ef0-46ce-9924-002fe255aa2b → f3d1b486-fdba-4d3f-b689-f21c82d25f3e |
| US-TN · senate · nowcast · Marquita Bradshaw | 1% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 1% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers651cc8c5-af2b-42d0-829d-8b50ee984c0e → fbac3a95-12b9-4a47-bd0a-8aa57ac5c853 |
| US-CA-9 · house · election_day · Josh Harder | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-LA-2 · house · election_day · Troy A. Carter Sr. | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NC-8 · house · election_day · Colby Watson | 3% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 3% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-26 · house · election_day · Steven Shook | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-9 · house · election_day · Leticia Gutierrez | 5% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 6% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 5% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-SC-5 · house · election_day · Mallory Dittmer | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-SD-AL · house · election_day · Nicole Gronli | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL-8 · house · election_day · Melissa Bean | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-VA-1 · house · election_day · Shannon Taylor | 57% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 56% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 57% → 56% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-15 · house · election_day · Bobby Pulido | 61% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 63% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 61% → 63% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AL-2 · house · election_day · Shomari Figures | 42% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 40% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 42% → 40% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MN-1 · house · election_day · Jake Johnson | 29% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 28% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 29% → 28% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-KS-3 · house · election_day · Sharice Davids | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CT-2 · house · election_day · Joe Courtney | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NV-4 · house · election_day · Steven Horsford | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-16 · house · election_day · George Latimer | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MD-3 · house · election_day · Sarah Elfreth | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-12 · house · election_day · Kimberly Overman | 2% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IN-6 · house · election_day · Cynthia Wirth | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-PA-6 · house · election_day · Chrissy Houlahan | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MO-7 · house · election_day · Missi Hesketh | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WI-7 · house · election_day · Fred Clark | 5% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 5% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MA-9 · house · election_day · Bill Keating | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-KY-3 · house · election_day · Morgan McGarvey | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-HI-1 · house · election_day · Ed Case | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-16 · house · election_day · Veronica Escobar | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MD-1 · house · election_day · Dan Schwartz | 2% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 3% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 2% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-15 · house · election_day · Ritchie Torres | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NJ-5 · house · election_day · Josh Gottheimer | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-UT-3 · house · election_day · Kent Udell | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-20 · house · election_day · Debbie Wasserman Schultz | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-45 · house · election_day · Derek Tran | 98% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 98% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-30 · house · election_day · Frederick Haynes III | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-25 · house · election_day · Joseph Morelle | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CT-5 · house · election_day · Jahana Hayes | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA-8 · house · election_day · Kelly Esti | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-27 · house · election_day · Tanya Lloyd | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CO-3 · house · election_day · Dwayne Romero | 25% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 25% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IA-1 · house · election_day · Christina Bohannan | 76% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 74% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 76% → 74% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-10 · house · election_day · Caitlin Rourk | 2% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-13 · house · election_day · Leela Gray | 28% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 29% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 28% → 29% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH-5 · house · election_day · Brian Shaver | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-VT-AL · house · election_day · Becca Balint | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MS-2 · house · election_day · Bennie Thompson | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-KS-1 · house · election_day · Lauren Reinhold | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-25 · house · election_day · Raul Ruiz | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL-16 · house · election_day · Paul Nolley | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-50 · house · election_day · Scott Peters | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-17 · house · election_day · Matthew Montavon | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MI · senate · election_day · Abdul El-Sayed | 68% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 71% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 68% → 71% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers06214e4f-4b99-4282-8c33-6dea1d27736b → 93d80f91-1e9a-4cde-8775-a8035cb48075 |
| US-MI · senate · nowcast · Abdul El-Sayed | 70% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 72% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 70% → 72% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers49f872ea-8b00-4761-827a-c1f723dccb4a → cb766077-23f7-48be-be13-81dc1bd19fb6 |
| US-CA-46 · house · election_day · Lou Correa | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA · governor · election_day · Keisha Lance Bottoms | 57% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 57% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers20a6fe98-f977-4db2-9a62-350aeafb2ec2 → c87cde98-09df-416a-a9a9-853890d53fde |
| US-GA · governor · nowcast · Keisha Lance Bottoms | 43% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 44% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 43% → 44% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9f921396-6e17-4fff-89cb-0d6b15da9bda → 1fcf4bc0-3ad5-45eb-b48e-1c72f876b542 |
| US-WY-AL · house · election_day · Lisa F. Kinney | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NH-2 · house · election_day · Maggie Goodlander | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA-13 · house · election_day · Jasmine Clark | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CO-2 · house · election_day · Joe Neguse | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NJ-1 · house · election_day · Donald Norcross | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL-6 · house · election_day · Sean Casten | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MA · governor · election_day · Maura Healey | >99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | >99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd1613774-2f67-4f6b-9609-95141300cbb6 → 01c7048f-82fa-43ca-a186-1c6a8e6c846d |
| US-MA · governor · nowcast · Maura Healey | >99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | >99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers99edc74f-5efa-4ce4-a214-1fa5e421a06e → 741c1f28-30e4-4448-ae7a-91551dda7705 |
| US-NV-3 · house · election_day · Susie Lee | 98% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 98% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WA-9 · house · election_day · Adam Smith | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-10 · house · election_day · Mark DeSaulnier | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-KY · senate · election_day · Charles Booker | 7% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 6% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 7% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers798e081e-ad11-4dde-aa0e-2e99a502c458 → 3c397c7c-4991-4368-98a0-9a6fe1b60b88 |
| US-KY · senate · nowcast · Charles Booker | 8% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 8% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa97880e3-e985-4776-afb0-e8c7055e01c8 → 70c703ae-5cd8-47c6-96f7-0c1589a1fb98 |
| US-WI-8 · house · election_day · Rick Crosson | 3% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 3% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WI · governor · election_day · David Crowley | 75% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 78% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 75% → 78% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers68a32ab0-52c6-4231-8e7b-012a8590aa4c → 95c7b13f-4dfc-4d42-bbee-0a1ce2541c57 |
| US-WI · governor · nowcast · David Crowley | 78% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 81% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 78% → 81% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa4495792-e3de-43b9-b781-8fcce8db39b5 → 0b3dd5bc-a41b-4eda-9c4e-435425d64a09 |
| US-GA-4 · house · election_day · Hank Johnson | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY · governor · election_day · Kathy Hochul | 98% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 98% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf48b2826-c555-4550-a475-8522458cc847 → f62cf598-5da1-4138-8acd-50a01b110dd4 |
| US-NY · governor · nowcast · Kathy Hochul | 98% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 98% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa5f9beb4-fd0b-4e15-8eca-aeada19a211d → 0879d10b-d713-4cc1-9942-dca2024f06e5 |
| US-CO-6 · house · election_day · Jason Crow | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MI-1 · house · election_day · Callie Barr | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-PA-14 · house · election_day · Alan Bradstock | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-ME · governor · election_day · Hannah Pingree | 98% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 98% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers76eedac9-bc76-43c5-a817-52a27fb3ea2c → d441acad-0f58-4cc9-ad23-f6606fabce3a |
| US-ME · governor · nowcast · Hannah Pingree | 98% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 98% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers977e43b3-f125-4995-a304-1730f8f2a2b9 → 05dc0491-aafa-4c91-b8f8-f9d690e86c8e |
| US-CT-1 · house · election_day · Luke Bronin | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-24 · house · election_day · Salud Carbajal | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA-9 · house · election_day · Caitlyn Gegen | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OK-4 · house · election_day · Mitchell Jacob | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-OH-6 · house · election_day · Elizabeth Kirtley | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-31 · house · election_day · Justin Early | 2% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 2% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WY · governor · election_day · Kenneth Casner | <1% 2026-10-27T08:50:10Z | <1% 2026-10-29T00:51:00Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse22f6e06-7938-42ec-94e8-c877e36706fe → 6c441cef-4282-486e-92f0-12fce9a18042 |
| US-TX-3 · house · election_day · Evan Hunt | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CO-4 · house · election_day · Eileen Laubacher | 6% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 6% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IN-9 · house · election_day · Brad Meyer | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-6 · house · election_day · Danny Minton | 1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AZ-2 · house · election_day · Jonathan Nez | 22% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 24% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 22% → 24% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-GA-7 · house · election_day · Anthony Kozycki | 6% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 6% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-PA · governor · election_day · Josh Shapiro | >99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | >99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf5d7493b-b206-4f72-9d48-4d68d7c7ad43 → 13924df0-477c-4277-bf07-a57ddbd493bd |
| US-PA · governor · nowcast · Josh Shapiro | >99% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | >99% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers65128a13-23a7-46c9-993c-7ad79ac7eab3 → dbb14864-6373-427d-bfa4-3eecc102a0f6 |
| US-NJ-10 · house · election_day · LaMonica McIver | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MD-4 · house · election_day · Glenn Ivey | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NJ-11 · house · election_day · Analilia Mejia | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IL-10 · house · election_day · Brad Schneider | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-IN-4 · house · election_day · Drew Cox | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WI-1 · house · election_day · Mitchell Berman | 23% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 23% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-10 · house · election_day · Brad Lander | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-6 · house · election_day · Richard Pan | 77% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 87% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 77% → 87% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-19 · house · election_day · Kyle Rable | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WV-2 · house · election_day · Ace Parsi | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TN-9 · house · election_day · Justin J. Pearson | 7% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 8% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 7% → 8% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MI-11 · house · election_day · Jeremy Moss | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-FL-7 · house · election_day · Bale Dalton | 73% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 71% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Displayed 73% → 71% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MN · governor · election_day · Amy Klobuchar | 95% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 96% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 95% → 96% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfc876ea5-05aa-4542-9e4d-f0ab2e7862a3 → 823fd7b7-b5e2-4b53-9dec-ee0ff27bcff7 |
| US-MN · governor · nowcast · Amy Klobuchar | 95% 2026-10-27T08:35:40Z | 97% 2026-10-29T00:36:14Z | Displayed 95% → 97% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5d0c963c-aa8b-423a-90e5-54e5e4b19fe6 → 2cef8565-ec15-4d07-8b79-5dd904f4292f |
| US-IL-2 · house · election_day · Donna Miller | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-42 · house · election_day · Robert Garcia | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CA-8 · house · election_day · John Garamendi | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-TX-18 · house · election_day · Christian Menefee | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-MI-8 · house · election_day · Kristen McDonald Rivet | 99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-11 · house · election_day · Michael DeCillis | <1% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | <1% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-WA-8 · house · election_day · Kim Schrier | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-AZ-8 · house · election_day · Bernadette Greene-Placentia | 4% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | 4% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-NY-26 · house · election_day · Tim Kennedy | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |
| US-CT-4 · house · election_day · Jim Himes | >99% 2026-10-27T11:57:04Z | >99% 2026-10-29T06:38:33Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers026c5520-20ed-48a2-bbcd-52ceff5df848 → 3fd0d3dd-f5c2-4d24-a844-3f28f068e72a |