Published forecasts: 2026-10-26
Last published snapshot for this Pacific day. These records were published at the time; no reconstructed forecasts are added.
Compared with the previous available closed day, 2026-10-25. Dates may be more than one day apart.
- 2026-10-25: race records · chamber records · file hashes
- 2026-10-26: race records · chamber records · file hashes
Chambers
Stored party-control bounds; unavailable values stay unavailable. The linked downloads retain model versions and run identifiers.
| Chamber / product | Earlier | Later |
|---|---|---|
| governors · election_day | D 74%–74%; R 26%–26%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-26T02:34:14Z | D 74%–74%; R 26%–26%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-27T03:03:13Z |
| governors · nowcast | D 68%–68%; R 32%–32%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-26T02:34:14Z | D 69%–69%; R 31%–31%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-27T03:03:13Z |
| house · election_day | D 83%–83%; R 17%–17%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | D 88%–88%; R 12%–12%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z |
| senate · election_day | D 62%–69%; R 31%–38%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-26T02:34:14Z | D 62%–68%; R 32%–38%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-27T03:03:13Z |
| senate · nowcast | D 62%–67%; R 33%–38%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-26T02:34:14Z | D 64%–69%; R 31%–36%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-27T03:03:13Z |
Races
Changes refer to the displayed, rounded percentages. Exact probabilities are in the downloads. Candidate changes are separate rows. A poll appearing between runs is not proof it caused a move. Poll arrivals, money and candidate events are not captured by these forecast files; the model and correction record provides other context.
| Race and subject | Earlier chance / run time | Later chance / run time | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-TX-22 · house · election_day · Marquette Greene-Scott | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NC-4 · house · election_day · Valerie Foushee | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OR · senate · election_day · Jeff Merkley | 98% 2026-10-25T23:39:29Z | 98% 2026-10-27T03:02:00Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf74f6682-3558-4352-8fd1-acd93e0c106a → 5f30175e-0228-47dd-bb2f-2bc2a0413100 |
| US-VA · senate · election_day · Mark Warner | 96% 2026-10-25T23:39:29Z | 95% 2026-10-27T03:02:00Z | Displayed 96% → 95% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa04558c5-6ce1-45e7-9251-7f16dd0988c9 → 0d89bdde-2ef4-4f91-b6a8-ecc2a5cdfbc8 |
| US-OH-4 · house · election_day · Joshua Kolasinski | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WA-3 · house · election_day · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 45% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 50% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 45% → 50% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NC-14 · house · election_day · LaKesha Womack | 7% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 5% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 7% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OK-5 · house · election_day · Jena Nelson | 4% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 4% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MN-7 · house · election_day · Erik Osberg | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MT · senate · election_day · Seth Bodnar | 1% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 1% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers777af458-e600-4f3d-8fbc-e23dda8d80b5 → 00f13fc0-6a61-4d9c-878f-76268987b0d1 |
| US-MT · senate · nowcast · Seth Bodnar | 1% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 1% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd2f4822b-0da5-4fa0-b346-5dfac2509f26 → 35a08a3a-c097-40e3-b003-a68e1de3617c |
| US-CA-20 · house · election_day · Sandra Van Scotter | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AL-5 · house · election_day · Andrew Sneed | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NC-1 · house · election_day · Don Davis | 85% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 86% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 85% → 86% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH-7 · house · election_day · Brian Poindexter | 85% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 86% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 85% → 86% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OK-2 · house · election_day · Brandon Wade | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NC-12 · house · election_day · Alma Adams | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TN · governor · election_day · Jerri Green | 1% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 2% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers91849e9c-c82a-4e18-9cc1-860dc17202c4 → f0e2acdb-0962-4c69-b78b-6db9d73f55d4 |
| US-TN · governor · nowcast · Jerri Green | 2% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 2% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5a02dbb6-73d6-4bf8-886c-b42a3c503545 → cad49b16-5f0e-49b6-8b33-37906577b889 |
| US-ID-2 · house · election_day · Ellie Gilbreath | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AZ-4 · house · election_day · Greg Stanton | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NC-9 · house · election_day · Richard Ojeda | 11% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 11% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IA-2 · house · election_day · Lindsay James | 49% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 52% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 49% → 52% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-38 · house · election_day · Melissa McDonough | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-LA-3 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-5 · house · election_day · Gregory Meeks | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AR-4 · house · election_day · James Russell | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL · senate · election_day · Angie Nixon | 11% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 12% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 11% → 12% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers30080031-e6da-4b00-a83f-19c134b00c09 → 6833ff76-ee55-40eb-a9ac-bd29cd5d9108 |
| US-FL · senate · nowcast · Angie Nixon | 9% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 9% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers251ac49c-23b5-4612-935f-0387126c2a40 → ecbe438f-24d2-4fe3-af99-6ed178271f74 |
| US-MN-5 · house · election_day · Ilhan Omar | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-28 · house · election_day · Henry Cuellar | 71% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 78% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 71% → 78% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NV-2 · house · election_day · Teresa Benitez-Thompson | 42% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 42% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-4 · house · election_day · Jason Pearce | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX · governor · election_day · Gina Hinojosa | 25% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 25% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd600fc5b-dda6-44fb-a4bf-f675c2bbfcfe → 6bb9baf5-08bd-4978-b53b-36199259ae64 |
| US-TX · governor · nowcast · Gina Hinojosa | 26% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 26% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb7351c77-e921-4bd9-9cb2-4b5a3f97baa7 → a6e7560f-fe07-4ea4-a106-3f97e23a9093 |
| US-MA-8 · house · election_day · Stephen Lynch | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NC-13 · house · election_day · Paul Barringer | 2% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 3% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 2% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-7 · house · election_day · Claire Valdez | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-ND-AL · house · election_day · Trygve Hammer | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL-9 · house · election_day · Daniel Biss | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MI-2 · house · election_day · Benjamin Ambrose | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MD-6 · house · election_day · April McClain Delaney | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AL-7 · house · election_day · Terri Sewell | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-33 · house · election_day · Pete Aguilar | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-24 · house · election_day · Oliver Gilbert | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-VA-2 · house · election_day · Elaine Luria | 61% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 65% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 61% → 65% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-4 · house · election_day · LaShonda Holloway | 5% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 6% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 5% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MI-10 · house · election_day · Christina Hines | 44% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 49% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 44% → 49% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MN-2 · house · election_day · Matt Little | 89% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 90% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 89% → 90% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-8 · house · election_day · Jennifer Jenkins | 3% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 3% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-51 · house · election_day · Sara Jacobs | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-16 · house · election_day · Sam Liccardo | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OR-6 · house · election_day · Andrea Salinas | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-VA-10 · house · election_day · Suhas Subramanyam | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-28 · house · election_day · Judy Chu | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL-4 · house · election_day · Patty Garcia | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OR-3 · house · election_day · Maxine Dexter | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NM · governor · election_day · Deb Haaland | 92% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 92% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers226edb53-c3a8-4a0d-b1f4-9acd32bbe6e0 → f6a9bfc5-d5a2-4b66-abc0-f5a9a90a1642 |
| US-NM · governor · nowcast · Deb Haaland | 92% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 91% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 92% → 91% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers4d897800-3fdf-4798-9b32-214ae64a65b7 → 9ba18166-2930-4ab3-a258-40516b4aa28a |
| US-TX-29 · house · election_day · Sylvia Garcia | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OR-5 · house · election_day · Janelle Bynum | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA-3 · house · election_day · Maura Keller | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-5 · house · election_day · Michael Masuda | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 2% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-21 · house · election_day · Blake Gendebien | 26% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 27% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 26% → 27% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-15 · house · election_day · Kevin Mullin | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-27 · house · election_day · Eliott Rodriguez | 15% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 16% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 15% → 16% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MO-1 · house · election_day · Wesley Bell | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-KY-1 · house · election_day · John "Drew" Williams | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-SC-3 · house · election_day · Eunice Lehmacher | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA-14 · house · election_day · Shawn Harris | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-ID · senate · election_day · Todd Achilles | 3% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 3% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers66b19d03-9ca9-4988-9f7b-fa8654ccce04 → 698a495b-1df8-4ab0-b510-55882f493bbc |
| US-ID · senate · nowcast · Todd Achilles | 2% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 2% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers19246fbb-c569-44f0-b94f-fd3b8de41cdf → 868b04e0-fcd7-411c-8929-586841b2d5c4 |
| US-TN-2 · house · election_day · Michaela Barnett | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CO-7 · house · election_day · Brittany Pettersen | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-PA-8 · house · election_day · Paige Cognetti | 49% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 58% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 49% → 58% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-KS-2 · house · election_day · Don Coover | 2% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 3% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 2% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-14 · house · election_day · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH · governor · election_day · Amy Acton | 72% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 73% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 72% → 73% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers77d7a20e-d3f7-466b-a7f3-1f78763556a0 → 033025e5-ae6a-4846-ab20-f20e3a5f021c |
| US-OH · governor · nowcast · Amy Acton | 77% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 78% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 77% → 78% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersce6f8355-03de-4f60-8755-46ed9c4b6af6 → 6f4d27a0-6500-4337-a3c5-5c8e324203ff |
| US-AR · governor · election_day · Fredrick Love | 3% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 3% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse87aca8c-e762-4d09-9fad-499a1b260a79 → 3f32f161-0592-4545-8791-7d7e452407c1 |
| US-AR · governor · nowcast · Fredrick Love | 5% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 6% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 5% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9a970858-bb27-4596-a3b6-0ee4f57a1db3 → b693f502-3411-4477-bab2-7dfccf9c3d4b |
| US-MO-6 · house · election_day · Josh Smead | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-KS · senate · election_day · Adam Hamilton | 35% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 40% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 35% → 40% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf422ecd5-f315-4df9-8c1d-58880c9b7ac9 → bb32dcc6-5806-4228-b730-321be73abdd1 |
| US-KS · senate · nowcast · Adam Hamilton | 56% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 56% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierscba353db-0c02-42f6-99b5-c167f61e2890 → 1131f07d-fe88-4f98-9a64-84fe11e1c4bd |
| US-ME · senate · election_day · Troy Jackson | 51% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 52% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 51% → 52% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers12f92517-f5db-46f7-a666-56d344236155 → ca99fb1a-9364-4508-893e-0906f509b782 |
| US-ME · senate · nowcast · Troy Jackson | 63% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 63% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6f854238-5541-4c53-9941-79dd1155adf6 → 15ddb386-72ba-4791-9d71-578f14c565a9 |
| US-CA-13 · house · election_day · Adam Gray | 97% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 98% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 97% → 98% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-17 · house · election_day · Casey Shepard | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL-11 · house · election_day · Bill Foster | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-28 · house · election_day · Phil Ehr | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MO-5 · house · election_day · Emanuel Cleaver | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-22 · house · election_day · John Mannion | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MD · governor · election_day · Wes Moore | >99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | >99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf61f6a47-22d3-421e-a834-aac90d41af8d → ccea6cd5-d2bc-4455-807e-15b515c32a3f |
| US-MD · governor · nowcast · Wes Moore | >99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | >99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierscb4787cc-a1cd-452f-afbe-5495603d7db9 → 9ab8ea96-c8ef-4e7e-ba9a-be1c1a4cf88a |
| US-CO-5 · house · election_day · Jessica Killin | 43% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 45% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 43% → 45% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-2 · house · election_day · Amanda Green | 4% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 6% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 4% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MA-3 · house · election_day · Lori Trahan | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH-3 · house · election_day · Joyce Beatty | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NH · governor · election_day · Cinde Warmington | 7% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 7% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers36c5f500-ae6b-4b07-95ff-822a429d469e → 6b7c3dad-8aae-444d-9548-2e148b32a1f1 |
| US-NH · governor · nowcast · Cinde Warmington | 4% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 4% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2ecf1ace-199f-4d23-b42a-a33de253e676 → 49040899-5ea2-4b74-b38a-1c872afa106b |
| US-NC-7 · house · election_day · Kimberly Hardy | 6% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 7% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 6% → 7% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WV · senate · election_day · Rachel Fetty Anderson | 1% 2026-10-25T23:39:29Z | 1% 2026-10-27T03:02:00Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers97af90ac-ea9e-4b9e-9ad4-fe8c7344dbb9 → 3452df02-44f6-48a2-b7b4-7ea3d63909a6 |
| US-OK · senate · election_day · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | 1% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 1% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5d960fd8-9d20-4aeb-a0e1-6d269349f946 → 1f0136d8-9406-41bf-b73f-8ead5b842b82 |
| US-OK · senate · nowcast · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | <1% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | <1% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb8b3cce6-154a-4669-89e4-97c0cab8633e → a039ee3d-d786-4aae-966a-a8e75eb99fc5 |
| US-CA-32 · house · election_day · Brad Sherman | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NE · senate · election_day · Dan Osborn | 47% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 47% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersc77ef318-8863-451a-bba6-17cd7fc8604b → e0ad2fe6-17cb-4d7f-a892-42440cc1dfe0 |
| US-NE · senate · nowcast · Dan Osborn | 47% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 47% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse688c295-0dc2-44a4-a3ba-a47b08acad17 → b2e1bd2f-12ad-4d65-8644-8fc2aa3553f6 |
| US-TN-1 · house · election_day · Kristi Burke | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-12 · house · election_day · Angela Rodriguez Prilliman | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MS-4 · house · election_day · Jeffrey Hulum III | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OK-1 · house · election_day · John Croisant | 2% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 2% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WA-2 · house · election_day · Rick Larsen | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-SC-7 · house · election_day · John Vincent | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OK-3 · house · election_day · Suzie Byrd | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-ID · governor · election_day · Terri Pickens | <1% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | <1% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd6435228-a5d2-47dc-9e5c-f72c35f4989e → 5e0c3927-dde0-4564-a891-1ab79a5f4c29 |
| US-ID · governor · nowcast · Terri Pickens | <1% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 1% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers23c71a40-dcef-4798-bda4-01a5cbb2fa52 → ef0bba1e-268e-49df-a022-28fc3ba0fb01 |
| US-TX-8 · house · election_day · Laura Jones | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA-1 · house · election_day · Amanda Hollowell | 5% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 6% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 5% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-UT-1 · house · election_day · Ben McAdams | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL · senate · election_day · Juliana Stratton | 98% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 98% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse155b10f-9978-4c21-8091-4921bb844177 → de509180-872f-4ca5-b319-bbbd398b5651 |
| US-IL · senate · nowcast · Juliana Stratton | 97% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 97% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1b3d4eff-eee1-4542-a1cc-8298d5b2843d → 1042ff25-db8f-42f6-8c4d-46dd71d1e94a |
| US-ME-1 · house · election_day · Chellie Pingree | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-PA-2 · house · election_day · Brendan Boyle | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH · senate · election_day · Sherrod Brown | 76% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 76% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers82a9e5c1-8cbb-4751-839c-7e71f420b0c1 → 7df5867a-dab8-4392-8888-acb9ee6d1a16 |
| US-OH · senate · nowcast · Sherrod Brown | 78% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 78% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersafa26fa8-764a-4ebb-9b2f-0be25927d615 → 38d1d8ad-bc8f-4982-a189-87adf8de459e |
| US-CA-23 · house · election_day · Tessa Lynn Hodge | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WA-7 · house · election_day · Pramila Jayapal | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MN-6 · house · election_day · Doug Chapin | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-1 · house · election_day · Chris Gallant | 13% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 15% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 13% → 15% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AZ-7 · house · election_day · Adelita Grijalva | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CT-3 · house · election_day · Rosa DeLauro | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-PA-4 · house · election_day · Madeleine Dean | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-23 · house · election_day · Aaron Gies | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NJ-6 · house · election_day · Frank Pallone | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-2 · house · election_day · Shaun Finnie | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-UT-2 · house · election_day · Peter Crosby | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-KY-5 · house · election_day · Ned Pillersdorf | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-16 · house · election_day · Kelly Kirschner | 20% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 22% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 20% → 22% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL-5 · house · election_day · Mike Quigley | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MS-3 · house · election_day · Michael Chiaradio | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH-15 · house · election_day · Don Leonard | 35% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 37% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 35% → 37% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MA-4 · house · election_day · Jake Auchincloss | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-LA-4 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-11 · house · election_day · James Pericola | 5% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 7% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 5% → 7% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-14 · house · election_day · Thurman Bartie | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-ME-2 · house · election_day · Matthew Dunlap | 31% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 43% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 31% → 43% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IA · governor · election_day · Rob Sand | 85% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 85% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers62dd3fa2-0850-4f6e-b1e2-f1ca19864647 → bcc1d577-4b27-4b08-822b-fa1d05f829b0 |
| US-IA · governor · nowcast · Rob Sand | 93% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 93% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers364e36ea-dd77-4f99-8067-847d146ca09c → a67d4ec6-7c24-4ec3-9a3b-a73fed12f743 |
| US-PA-10 · house · election_day · Janelle Stelson | 65% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 68% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 65% → 68% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-RI · governor · election_day · Helena Foulkes | 99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers232ff4ac-2f0b-446d-ac4d-7c9146492b08 → c1bcd250-6b08-49fa-bb0b-5fcf39742bdb |
| US-RI · governor · nowcast · Helena Foulkes | 99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9862df46-1e3b-4c14-96e1-71c05122242b → ae2df92c-7d26-445f-86c1-6ab82dba5609 |
| US-FL-6 · house · election_day · Eric Yonce | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CT · governor · election_day · Ned Lamont | >99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | >99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5591cb5e-e641-49d7-b616-988efba7e97b → 9b50caf2-26e7-4b48-baf6-89f0cbde4630 |
| US-CT · governor · nowcast · Ned Lamont | >99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | >99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers4f65e933-a24c-4d60-9c73-4c5d1dfeef3f → ca262c33-f04e-4b65-8a20-2cddad3959e9 |
| US-AL · senate · election_day · Everett Wess | 1% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 2% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers57e0150c-aea3-4f72-8b7c-60726da18b3f → 8a882710-9c08-426f-bc15-92561104df35 |
| US-AL · senate · nowcast · Everett Wess | 2% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 2% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierseb8b283f-f346-4f54-b06a-27b06e8ea903 → ff8bceff-7765-4edf-8127-1f88510bbbb7 |
| US-FL-5 · house · election_day · Rachel Grage | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AL-4 · house · election_day · Amanda Pusczek | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MN · senate · election_day · Peggy Flanagan | 90% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 89% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 90% → 89% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers291a4064-bc1b-4e5a-ba28-506f8eb7e360 → a3a4f117-0e8e-4f31-b8a3-3df8ab66ba39 |
| US-MN · senate · nowcast · Peggy Flanagan | 77% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 77% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers60807c49-9905-4205-927c-c56233c19b4d → b3209e06-d033-4738-bb78-3b30f1632286 |
| US-TN-7 · house · election_day · Darden Copeland | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-15 · house · election_day · Robert People | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 2% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-43 · house · election_day · Maxine Waters | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CO · governor · election_day · Phil Weiser | 98% 2026-10-25T23:39:29Z | 98% 2026-10-27T03:02:00Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd21d9330-f030-4749-9e74-c0f6d478004c → be80b7d5-9e3b-4cc2-b541-f55052a4c0f0 |
| US-WI-6 · house · election_day · Brad Smith | 2% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 2% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MD-7 · house · election_day · Kweisi Mfume | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MN-3 · house · election_day · Kelly Morrison | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-32 · house · election_day · Dan Barrios | 4% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 5% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 4% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TN-4 · house · election_day · Victoria Broderick | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MD-2 · house · election_day · Johnny Olszewski | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TN-8 · house · election_day · Heidi Kuhn | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NE-3 · house · election_day · Becky Stille | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MS · senate · election_day · Scott Colom | 7% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 9% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 7% → 9% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3f931f83-cdfd-4cd9-989a-e1c534db0ec0 → a1ff1712-839d-419f-b4bc-96b016156a95 |
| US-MS · senate · nowcast · Scott Colom | 17% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 18% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 17% → 18% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers71fc7f6b-6f78-4704-9030-e7b4e5a30488 → bc6f351d-eb6a-49e8-8094-cbbe27cdab5a |
| US-NM-3 · house · election_day · Teresa Leger Fernández | 99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NJ-2 · house · election_day · Zack Mullock | 4% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 4% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-KY-2 · house · election_day · Megan Wingfield | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL-14 · house · election_day · Lauren Underwood | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-34 · house · election_day · Vicente Gonzalez | 70% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 74% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 70% → 74% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX · senate · election_day · James Talarico | 61% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 62% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 61% → 62% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersced3fd69-e7df-4265-9a8c-1cba86937e43 → 3e6a66b6-0a0b-4fb0-b868-e60d656b5d1c |
| US-TX · senate · nowcast · James Talarico | 69% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 69% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers7178ad67-8e40-4ae4-8a06-50e3abb116ac → 35163f8a-49e1-499b-b335-f163494996b8 |
| US-OH-13 · house · election_day · Emilia Sykes | 99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL · governor · election_day · David Jolly | 20% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 20% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersec578071-a0bd-4351-a03f-efc4676992f2 → 9475ff35-0a8d-4d86-83dd-1ac6c10fb16e |
| US-FL · governor · nowcast · David Jolly | 17% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 17% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse8f5b4bb-9f6e-40d8-a48a-ffcb3f371316 → 9bde3220-65be-4da8-b962-3badf1d63b8f |
| US-MI-13 · house · election_day · Donavan McKinney | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NJ-12 · house · election_day · Adam Hamawy | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-SC-6 · house · election_day · Jim Clyburn | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH-9 · house · election_day · Marcy Kaptur | 71% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 82% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 71% → 82% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WI-3 · house · election_day · Rebecca Cooke | 53% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 58% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 53% → 58% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NE-2 · house · election_day · Denise Powell | 88% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 89% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 88% → 89% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-VA-3 · house · election_day · Bobby Scott | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-VA-6 · house · election_day · Beth Macy | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-22 · house · election_day · Randy Villegas | 46% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 47% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 46% → 47% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH-8 · house · election_day · Vanessa Enoch | 3% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 4% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 3% → 4% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AZ · governor · election_day · Katie Hobbs | 95% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 95% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1f8c5a47-2ce0-4a56-86f6-6e7a4c2a8b13 → 434ef38d-8b1c-4c71-8442-5c61b2fa1fab |
| US-AZ · governor · nowcast · Katie Hobbs | 94% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 94% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers80fe397f-573a-4f43-a8a6-52bd2b947eb3 → 6bf641d2-472b-405c-b1de-c9849988b127 |
| US-VT · governor · election_day · Amanda Janoo | 7% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 7% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers507cd4b1-19d6-4337-8ee1-7910a865916c → 7bbdbc6d-0a99-4094-bf42-541cce4add28 |
| US-VT · governor · nowcast · Amanda Janoo | 15% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 15% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers328efa6f-ab29-418e-b585-47e7d5a996f1 → 2db38d77-d3d4-494b-958f-5d2c491aea56 |
| US-MI-6 · house · election_day · Debbie Dingell | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MI-7 · house · election_day · William Lawrence | 58% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 60% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 58% → 60% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IN-3 · house · election_day · Kelly Thompson | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WA-5 · house · election_day · Carmela Conroy | 3% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 3% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-LA · senate · election_day · Jamie Davis | 11% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 12% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 11% → 12% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers256dd9d3-4e5f-4150-afc8-894270bab5e2 → 82ad2e11-dab1-4c0a-849f-c508e4867002 |
| US-LA · senate · nowcast · Jamie Davis | 14% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 16% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 14% → 16% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierscd7cde05-a57a-46f2-8d20-7234ab329af0 → 7d825080-8f37-44fb-9f3c-afe2b8c76908 |
| US-NE · governor · election_day · Lynne Walz | 20% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 22% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 20% → 22% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0314f434-1c81-4f99-9db0-96e5b72ca00b → 9b06c8fa-2daa-4f9f-95ee-8eac251eb8ba |
| US-NE · governor · nowcast · Lynne Walz | 25% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 29% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 25% → 29% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa396d617-89eb-447a-8f02-c0511b4088cb → ab2df919-2049-4761-8371-e2a7a0b211ae |
| US-TX-1 · house · election_day · Yolanda Prince | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-39 · house · election_day · Mark Takano | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-35 · house · election_day · Johnny Garcia | 44% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 47% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 44% → 47% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-PA-9 · house · election_day · Rachel Wallace | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NC-11 · house · election_day · Jamie Ager | 87% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 88% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 87% → 88% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MT-2 · house · election_day · Brian Miller | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NC-5 · house · election_day · Chuck Hubbard | 5% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 6% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 5% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MI-3 · house · election_day · Hillary Scholten | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA-11 · house · election_day · Chris Harden | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-13 · house · election_day · Mark Nair | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-KS · governor · election_day · Cindy Holscher | 35% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 36% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 35% → 36% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2c1009f1-c7bf-41ff-90f9-d04eea7bc31d → f5a66604-d243-4bb2-a413-38c22cf3856c |
| US-KS · governor · nowcast · Cindy Holscher | 29% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 29% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1b3f2ade-3a15-44e6-bc8e-a5bf986cf84a → 40b1254d-ffb5-4c93-b228-9be8d2273d5f |
| US-AL-6 · house · election_day · Maurice Mercer | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NE-1 · house · election_day · Chris Backemeyer | 16% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 18% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 16% → 18% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WI-5 · house · election_day · Andrew Beck | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-HI · governor · election_day · Josh Green | 99% 2026-10-25T23:39:29Z | 99% 2026-10-27T03:02:00Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersac152483-9bf8-44b4-9784-8a99693605e6 → 7359cfc4-a853-42c0-8a1c-24ddc1a6c6ce |
| US-FL-21 · house · election_day · James Martin | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-25 · house · election_day · Dione Sims | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WA-4 · house · election_day · John Duresky | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-48 · house · election_day · Marni von Wilpert | 84% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 87% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 84% → 87% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-9 · house · election_day · Darren Soto | 42% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 45% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 42% → 45% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-2 · house · election_day · Patrick Halpin | 2% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 2% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-2 · house · election_day · Jared Huffman | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IN-8 · house · election_day · Mary Allen | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-RI-2 · house · election_day · Seth Magaziner | 99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH-1 · house · election_day · Greg Landsman | 92% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 93% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 92% → 93% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WY · senate · election_day · James W. Byrd | <1% 2026-10-25T23:39:29Z | <1% 2026-10-27T03:02:00Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd3f0ef05-c820-4093-9019-aa854eec40f1 → 5528ed84-e3cd-4bee-8947-591b61003092 |
| US-CA-18 · house · election_day · Zoe Lofgren | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-47 · house · election_day · Dave Min | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-UT-4 · house · election_day · Jonny Larsen | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL-13 · house · election_day · Nikki Budzinski | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NC · senate · election_day · Roy Cooper | 96% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 96% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers08b892f8-f218-402d-bb03-3fbc112d4eaa → 9319ad9f-35c8-4392-a152-dcfe10b2e3ba |
| US-NC · senate · nowcast · Roy Cooper | 97% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 97% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2daad48d-23af-4a6b-a786-f0729be670c9 → c10d03ee-2e12-46ab-9674-6c88ee3a3518 |
| US-NV-1 · house · election_day · Dina Titus | 98% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 98% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-4 · house · election_day · Laura Gillen | 98% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 98% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NJ-4 · house · election_day · Rachel Peace | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OR · governor · election_day · Tina Kotek | 84% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 81% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 84% → 81% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers312e628b-d46c-4dbd-b8fd-328e1ee052d7 → e9ea2789-ade9-4be4-ba2f-a93d233a72b4 |
| US-OR · governor · nowcast · Tina Kotek | 57% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 57% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers94b2c0e9-dd11-476e-9471-440437880c96 → 3192f12d-e399-42fe-bf9e-336777f62b30 |
| US-SC · governor · election_day · Jermaine Johnson | 4% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 5% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 4% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers95eff7eb-1940-477b-abf5-c72171a34187 → 363bb2b6-a16e-4854-bb4e-ec649c80da46 |
| US-SC · governor · nowcast · Jermaine Johnson | 3% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 3% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersdaaa5310-8c04-48e3-80f7-2b91ed2fd453 → 3e68bf9a-3373-4dd8-883f-a2d9b83a147c |
| US-MN-8 · house · election_day · Trina Swanson | 3% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 3% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA-6 · house · election_day · Lucy McBath | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-SD · senate · election_day · Brian Bengs | 6% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 6% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2e61e8a0-f33c-43eb-9913-ca49a4a66c49 → cca43723-5dca-487d-a57e-d13d8b03cac7 |
| US-SD · senate · nowcast · Brian Bengs | 5% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 5% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers33161fc8-fdcc-413a-b845-f781d62eeea5 → 97c68bd7-d510-4980-97e5-a90fe53e83e1 |
| US-ID-1 · house · election_day · Kaylee Peterson | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH-2 · house · election_day · Jennifer Mazzuckelli | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-1 · house · election_day · Gay Valimont | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-31 · house · election_day · Gil Cisneros | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-HI-2 · house · election_day · Jill Tokuda | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-VA-8 · house · election_day · Don Beyer | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CO-1 · house · election_day · Melat Kiros | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-PA-11 · house · election_day · Nancy Mannion | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AR · senate · election_day · Hallie Shoffner | 5% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 5% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers735fe1d0-14aa-4854-9b55-7b19198e26e8 → 76df536a-aa67-45cb-97bb-14578be9e6d7 |
| US-AR · senate · nowcast · Hallie Shoffner | 11% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 13% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 11% → 13% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1b51f460-6941-4146-af97-ccb813afb24d → b2a15090-b241-4897-a5b3-51ca024d9e6f |
| US-PA-15 · house · election_day · Ray Bilger | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AZ-5 · house · election_day · Elizabeth Lee | 4% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 4% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NC-2 · house · election_day · Deborah Ross | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MN-4 · house · election_day · Betty McCollum | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-3 · house · election_day · Ami Bera | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NC-6 · house · election_day · Cyril Jefferson | 3% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 4% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 3% → 4% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IA-3 · house · election_day · Sarah Trone Garriott | 55% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 76% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 55% → 76% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-DE-AL · house · election_day · Sarah McBride | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OR-4 · house · election_day · Val Hoyle | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-PA-17 · house · election_day · Chris Deluzio | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA-5 · house · election_day · Nikema Williams | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NM-1 · house · election_day · Melanie Stansbury | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-41 · house · election_day · Linda Sánchez | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-38 · house · election_day · Hilda Solis | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-LA-1 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-14 · house · election_day · Kathy Castor | 84% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 86% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 84% → 86% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MD-8 · house · election_day · Jamie Raskin | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH-14 · house · election_day · Maria Jukic | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 2% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-12 · house · election_day · Micah Lasher | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-21 · house · election_day · Jim Costa | 99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NJ-9 · house · election_day · Nellie Pou | 99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AL-1 · house · election_day · Clyde Jones | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-18 · house · election_day · Pat Ryan | 99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-PA-1 · house · election_day · Bob Harvie | 31% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 29% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 31% → 29% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-6 · house · election_day · Grace Meng | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA · governor · election_day · Xavier Becerra | >99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | >99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersce11d469-f58f-4594-9e74-5666906f7918 → 16d0cd67-1f51-4360-a9fa-c80e6ba5c15f |
| US-CA · governor · nowcast · Xavier Becerra | >99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | >99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfba41a7e-fbda-40e8-88ea-5581d2a823d3 → 19d5195c-7283-46d0-93b6-355e23a4d5b1 |
| US-WI-4 · house · election_day · Gwen Moore | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AL · governor · election_day · Doug Jones | 2% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 2% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers355c4e2c-d647-42bf-8bf2-e46b383b0c2e → 186d4474-74f5-4d9c-bdd3-e3eac421f869 |
| US-AL · governor · nowcast · Doug Jones | 2% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 2% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersbf7830ce-66b7-42fc-8021-8abc5384e432 → 1fc40fc6-9629-4611-baf9-a02a721504a2 |
| US-FL-25 · house · election_day · Jared Moskowitz | 83% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 78% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 83% → 78% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-24 · house · election_day · Kevin Burge | 3% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 4% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 3% → 4% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL-3 · house · election_day · Delia Ramirez | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA-10 · house · election_day · Pamela DeLancy | 4% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 4% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-26 · house · election_day · Nicole Locklin | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MO-4 · house · election_day · Jordan Herrera | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-PA-7 · house · election_day · Bob Brooks | 68% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 70% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 68% → 70% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-VA-7 · house · election_day · Eugene Vindman | 98% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 98% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL-12 · house · election_day · Julie Fortier | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OK · governor · election_day · Cyndi Munson | 14% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 17% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 14% → 17% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9bc991a9-cdf5-48b1-a57c-45ae7e98f0bd → 5ccc4598-c956-4ebe-844b-3e8959cb3664 |
| US-OK · governor · nowcast · Cyndi Munson | 26% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 29% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 26% → 29% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers30843741-e844-48cb-aeea-a74e5cfc4f7b → ccc3695d-afdf-4272-9fb6-aee8393dc8dd |
| US-TN-3 · house · election_day · Anna Golladay | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MI · governor · election_day · Jocelyn Benson | 93% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 93% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5c9aeddd-9d67-4f2d-a46d-915997033530 → 8a112fc3-a159-4e93-96c9-ad202555b347 |
| US-MI · governor · nowcast · Jocelyn Benson | 94% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 94% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf99fdd07-6a54-4149-bc30-fe1f0a5cc7e5 → 56f4277f-5600-4ad1-8ab7-20e8a56b8fcb |
| US-MA · senate · election_day · Ed Markey | >99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | >99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb5c04f7b-9261-46e2-90fe-ecc5305b9b1b → 34a707e0-c963-4de8-a0f0-f2f4a110a7b2 |
| US-MA · senate · nowcast · Ed Markey | >99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | >99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersbb55cf01-83ca-4e0c-9ccf-b8bf12f0337c → 354c5166-447a-4227-9898-13b54ca130a4 |
| US-IL-7 · house · election_day · La Shawn Ford | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH-11 · house · election_day · Shontel Brown | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-VA-5 · house · election_day · Tom Perriello | 15% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 17% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 15% → 17% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL-1 · house · election_day · Jonathan Jackson | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AR-2 · house · election_day · Chris Jones | 24% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 24% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-23 · house · election_day · Lois Frankel | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AK · governor · election_day · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 89% 2026-10-25T23:39:32Z | 89% 2026-10-27T03:02:03Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers64e2703b-4e32-4708-a4ea-3fa31fd433e0 → a8a199d9-d290-48a9-ae57-b22154b0635a |
| US-AK · governor · nowcast · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 90% 2026-10-25T23:39:32Z | 90% 2026-10-27T03:02:03Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers077f595c-f2b0-4189-8e42-e96e92e51f12 → 5712c2a9-d006-48d0-a547-73610516b46a |
| US-MI-5 · house · election_day · Christian Vukasovich | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NH-1 · house · election_day · Stefany Shaheen | 83% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 84% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 83% → 84% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-VA-11 · house · election_day · James Walkinshaw | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-22 · house · election_day · Pia Dandiya | 58% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 62% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 58% → 62% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-18 · house · election_day · Curtis Gibson | 2% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 2% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AK-AL · house · election_day · Bill Hill | 36% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 36% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-1 · house · election_day · Mike McGuire | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-RI-1 · house · election_day · Gabe Amo | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MO-8 · house · election_day · Christopher Reichard | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NJ · senate · election_day · Cory Booker | 97% 2026-10-25T23:39:29Z | 94% 2026-10-27T03:02:00Z | Displayed 97% → 94% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers523d6851-863f-4af7-a331-f9a2ceb22a0a → 365e4faf-81a7-4d91-9449-560d1668ae5f |
| US-PA-12 · house · election_day · Summer Lee | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-KY-4 · house · election_day · Melissa Claire Strange | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-3 · house · election_day · Tom Suozzi | 94% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 95% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 94% → 95% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IN-7 · house · election_day · André Carson | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IA · senate · election_day · Josh Turek | 49% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 49% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6aea5f6d-1a8b-4ae7-a982-2689b50148f9 → 002336a6-3421-4ade-b8a8-0d5dc44d18d9 |
| US-IA · senate · nowcast · Josh Turek | 52% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 52% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers947a4515-2c88-4761-9ce3-47cabbaacbdb → bbc890de-f863-43fa-836e-d4754798ca5f |
| US-NY-13 · house · election_day · Darializa Avila Chevalier | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-36 · house · election_day · Rhonda Hart | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-23 · house · election_day · Katy Padilla Stout | 18% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 21% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 18% → 21% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-7 · house · election_day · Lizzie Fletcher | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IA-4 · house · election_day · Dave Dawson | 2% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 2% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CO · senate · election_day · John Hickenlooper | 97% 2026-10-25T23:39:29Z | 97% 2026-10-27T03:02:00Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersee64e1ab-3588-424d-850a-6c492f32812b → 3fa8cc57-2c00-465d-ac39-fc07bcffbdfb |
| US-AL-3 · house · election_day · Lee McInnis | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-36 · house · election_day · Ted Lieu | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MT-1 · house · election_day · Sam Forstag | 38% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 41% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 38% → 41% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MD-5 · house · election_day · Adrian Boafo | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-19 · house · election_day · Jimmy Panetta | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-33 · house · election_day · Colin Allred | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-20 · house · election_day · Paul Tonko | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA-2 · house · election_day · Sanford Bishop | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NC-3 · house · election_day · Raymond Smith Jr. | 22% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 24% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 22% → 24% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-52 · house · election_day · Juan Vargas | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OR-2 · house · election_day · Chris Beck | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-LA-5 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OR-1 · house · election_day · Suzanne Bonamici | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NM · senate · election_day · Ben Ray Luján | 96% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 97% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 96% → 97% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers063e8327-7db3-4778-8bc3-3b488075e7a6 → 39489a2c-b0c1-4374-b875-02aaead2fd9b |
| US-NM · senate · nowcast · Ben Ray Luján | 96% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 96% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersdd8edaf6-1b83-4f55-af0c-7fb61753e221 → b68a8fc2-3256-4313-bec5-7112424ac547 |
| US-NC-10 · house · election_day · Ashley Bell | 2% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 3% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 2% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH-12 · house · election_day · Jerrad Christian | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MO-2 · house · election_day · Fred Wellman | 44% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 46% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 44% → 46% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-PA-16 · house · election_day · Justin Wagner | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-26 · house · election_day · Jacqui Irwin | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WA-10 · house · election_day · Marilyn Strickland | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-KS-4 · house · election_day · Katy Tyndell | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CO-8 · house · election_day · Manny Rutinel | 65% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 67% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 65% → 67% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MI-4 · house · election_day · Sean McCann | 34% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 45% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 34% → 45% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-30 · house · election_day · Laura Friedman | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-5 · house · election_day · Chelsey Hockett | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MO-3 · house · election_day · Bethany Mann | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-SD · governor · election_day · Dan Ahlers | 1% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 2% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers26f7bc78-bb4a-487b-8be7-80ed0ea6b439 → 641cff5b-15e6-4f44-b739-9140bcd3659b |
| US-SD · governor · nowcast · Dan Ahlers | 3% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 3% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa207bc66-41b0-47e4-bd81-ff9bba978ed7 → d2dd6e29-14e4-4e15-8968-56c1d3ee826f |
| US-AR-3 · house · election_day · Robb Ryerse | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-17 · house · election_day · Ro Khanna | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MI-9 · house · election_day · Ray Pooley | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-11 · house · election_day · Claire Reynolds | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-SC · senate · election_day · Annie Andrews | 19% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 22% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 19% → 22% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersad26d4d8-cd6c-474a-a40b-0679bae9c5a9 → c1ecb769-352e-4c03-a4d3-f428723ec20d |
| US-SC · senate · nowcast · Annie Andrews | 31% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 31% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb8382f98-dd49-47eb-9416-81cb697c1240 → ee06b907-5088-486f-b329-c8785e475c08 |
| US-IL-15 · house · election_day · Jennifer Todd | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-9 · house · election_day · Yvette Clarke | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA · senate · election_day · Jon Ossoff | 94% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 94% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb2d4fa97-d728-4d9d-a0b4-e6165c3ab8e0 → 17d45ac0-7446-4dda-9c99-e846bc3ad2a3 |
| US-GA · senate · nowcast · Jon Ossoff | 94% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 94% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers796ac551-2d03-4b9b-b7f2-a4ddf0677da4 → 045035a3-c92a-4ab7-bdc3-8432fe2774fe |
| US-NY-19 · house · election_day · Josh Riley | 99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-VA-4 · house · election_day · Jennifer McClellan | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MS-1 · house · election_day · Cliff Johnson | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-DE · senate · election_day · Chris Coons | 99% 2026-10-25T23:39:29Z | 99% 2026-10-27T03:02:00Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers949fc39c-68e7-42df-9942-36d748da7bb8 → f4b5a082-605c-4324-879f-fb8db8155506 |
| US-IL · governor · election_day · JB Pritzker | 98% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 98% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers71be3a05-7be5-4752-b6c1-2358caa7f2a8 → a1e2c512-3097-4832-af3e-382b9bedffb8 |
| US-IL · governor · nowcast · JB Pritzker | 98% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 98% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd771322d-c065-4861-a354-97c9fafedc68 → b1eaf5b2-8299-456f-b4dd-44cab6a5cb4b |
| US-WA-6 · house · election_day · Emily Randall | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-19 · house · election_day · Victor Arias | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-SC-1 · house · election_day · Nancy Lacore | 35% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 37% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 35% → 37% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH-10 · house · election_day · Kristina Knickerbocker | 7% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 9% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 7% → 9% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-3 · house · election_day · Seth Harp | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-RI · senate · election_day · Jack Reed | >99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | >99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0990a580-1e3a-4b07-92ea-adeaad5e82a1 → b0a682f6-e2f8-45c4-b7c5-8ea6ab1deab4 |
| US-RI · senate · nowcast · Jack Reed | >99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | >99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers387a888b-826d-4c56-bbb4-6ed6c43bb1da → 15dd402c-972d-4c6f-bb34-c43dbdd3e5a0 |
| US-CA-44 · house · election_day · Nanette Barragán | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NH · senate · election_day · Chris Pappas | 91% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 91% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers13ad65f0-47ec-4acd-a450-f9a50fd1e51b → a1b1dd13-a085-43e7-b374-fd2ec1c08d85 |
| US-NH · senate · nowcast · Chris Pappas | 88% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 88% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1c0a54ef-1c87-46c2-8269-a802f2f06e2e → aea1d5a3-e175-4dac-a1fd-d6a677804d0c |
| US-AZ-9 · house · election_day · Danielle Sterbinsky | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-17 · house · election_day · Cait Conley | 51% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 51% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-21 · house · election_day · Kristin Hook | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MA-6 · house · election_day · Dan Koh | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL-17 · house · election_day · Eric Sorensen | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NM-2 · house · election_day · Gabe Vasquez | 82% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 84% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 82% → 84% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-VA-9 · house · election_day · Joy Powers | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IN-1 · house · election_day · Frank Mrvan | 99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-8 · house · election_day · Hakeem Jeffries | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AR-1 · house · election_day · Terri Yarbrough | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-KY-6 · house · election_day · Zach Dembo | 55% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 57% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 55% → 57% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MI-12 · house · election_day · Rashida Tlaib | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TN-6 · house · election_day · Mike Croley | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-PA-5 · house · election_day · Mary Gay Scanlon | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NV · governor · election_day · Aaron Ford | 37% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 38% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 37% → 38% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers28b2075c-4ed6-485e-a920-ce9fadd798d3 → 8279f8d0-56c3-4bb1-a095-7367b391ff79 |
| US-NV · governor · nowcast · Aaron Ford | 30% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 32% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 30% → 32% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierscfbf3c9b-adcc-4125-9fbd-c7e945eb0f8a → 88f5931a-08a7-45be-9e3e-4c46462d5d40 |
| US-SC-4 · house · election_day · Courtney McClain | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IN-5 · house · election_day · J.D. Ford | 14% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 16% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 14% → 16% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-35 · house · election_day · Norma Torres | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-24 · house · election_day · Alissa Ellman | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-LA-6 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AZ-1 · house · election_day · Amish Shah | 69% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 72% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 69% → 72% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WV-1 · house · election_day · Vince George | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NJ-3 · house · election_day · Herb Conaway | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IN-2 · house · election_day · Jamee Decio | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-27 · house · election_day · George Whitesides | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-37 · house · election_day · Greg Casar | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-49 · house · election_day · Mike Levin | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TN-5 · house · election_day · Chaz Molder | 12% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 13% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 12% → 13% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA-12 · house · election_day · Ceretta Smith | 2% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 3% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 2% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AZ-6 · house · election_day · JoAnna Mendoza | 62% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 67% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 62% → 67% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-SC-2 · house · election_day · Zyon Khalifa | 4% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 5% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 4% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-20 · house · election_day · Joaquin Castro | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WA-1 · house · election_day · Suzan DelBene | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-PA-13 · house · election_day · Beth Farnham | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AK · senate · election_day · Mary Peltola | 61% 2026-10-25T23:39:32Z | 57% 2026-10-27T03:02:03Z | Displayed 61% → 57% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersfcf5baec-c9e7-4d84-9033-32647a466004 → 343940f3-df69-4e7c-825a-a245cf5c12cc |
| US-AK · senate · nowcast · Mary Peltola | 62% 2026-10-25T23:39:32Z | 57% 2026-10-27T03:02:03Z | Displayed 62% → 57% | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers44f43703-80f5-4af7-878d-cc5992f0b66b → 007a993c-d67b-4149-b918-85e639a79e1d |
| US-NJ-7 · house · election_day · Rebecca Bennett | 68% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 70% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 68% → 70% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TN · senate · election_day · Marquita Bradshaw | 1% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 1% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse4d355e4-547e-4947-b3eb-c6accc4a80f3 → 716956b9-6fd0-4bb5-a235-57053b1137ba |
| US-TN · senate · nowcast · Marquita Bradshaw | 1% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 1% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6b591007-42ce-4a41-9882-0229edd90895 → 3feb1cb3-bf63-4d75-8aa9-fab6bb7aa060 |
| US-CA-9 · house · election_day · Josh Harder | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-LA-2 · house · election_day · Troy A. Carter Sr. | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NC-8 · house · election_day · Colby Watson | 2% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 3% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 2% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-26 · house · election_day · Steven Shook | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-9 · house · election_day · Leticia Gutierrez | 4% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 5% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 4% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-SC-5 · house · election_day · Mallory Dittmer | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-SD-AL · house · election_day · Nicole Gronli | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL-8 · house · election_day · Melissa Bean | 99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-VA-1 · house · election_day · Shannon Taylor | 56% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 57% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 56% → 57% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-15 · house · election_day · Bobby Pulido | 52% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 61% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 52% → 61% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AL-2 · house · election_day · Shomari Figures | 37% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 42% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 37% → 42% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MN-1 · house · election_day · Jake Johnson | 26% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 29% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 26% → 29% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-KS-3 · house · election_day · Sharice Davids | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CT-2 · house · election_day · Joe Courtney | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NV-4 · house · election_day · Steven Horsford | 99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-16 · house · election_day · George Latimer | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MD-3 · house · election_day · Sarah Elfreth | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-12 · house · election_day · Kimberly Overman | 2% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 2% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IN-6 · house · election_day · Cynthia Wirth | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-PA-6 · house · election_day · Chrissy Houlahan | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MO-7 · house · election_day · Missi Hesketh | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WI-7 · house · election_day · Fred Clark | 4% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 5% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 4% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MA-9 · house · election_day · Bill Keating | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-KY-3 · house · election_day · Morgan McGarvey | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-HI-1 · house · election_day · Ed Case | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-16 · house · election_day · Veronica Escobar | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MD-1 · house · election_day · Dan Schwartz | 2% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 2% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-15 · house · election_day · Ritchie Torres | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NJ-5 · house · election_day · Josh Gottheimer | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-UT-3 · house · election_day · Kent Udell | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-20 · house · election_day · Debbie Wasserman Schultz | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-45 · house · election_day · Derek Tran | 98% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 98% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-30 · house · election_day · Frederick Haynes III | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-25 · house · election_day · Joseph Morelle | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CT-5 · house · election_day · Jahana Hayes | 99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA-8 · house · election_day · Kelly Esti | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-27 · house · election_day · Tanya Lloyd | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CO-3 · house · election_day · Dwayne Romero | 23% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 25% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 23% → 25% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IA-1 · house · election_day · Christina Bohannan | 69% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 76% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 69% → 76% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-10 · house · election_day · Caitlin Rourk | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 2% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-13 · house · election_day · Leela Gray | 26% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 28% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 26% → 28% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH-5 · house · election_day · Brian Shaver | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-VT-AL · house · election_day · Becca Balint | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MS-2 · house · election_day · Bennie Thompson | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-KS-1 · house · election_day · Lauren Reinhold | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-25 · house · election_day · Raul Ruiz | 99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL-16 · house · election_day · Paul Nolley | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-50 · house · election_day · Scott Peters | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-17 · house · election_day · Matthew Montavon | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MI · senate · election_day · Abdul El-Sayed | 69% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 68% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 69% → 68% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers7c1ee43a-7e18-4f5a-95ee-d17bd433965b → eb0c1f21-ed20-4639-9d30-7468f2690f5c |
| US-MI · senate · nowcast · Abdul El-Sayed | 71% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 70% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 71% → 70% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers330fdd5c-6c6b-4beb-85bd-b4c13f653831 → c2be1ef4-0c17-44c8-b25e-d148325769ee |
| US-CA-46 · house · election_day · Lou Correa | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA · governor · election_day · Keisha Lance Bottoms | 55% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 57% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 55% → 57% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersdb12da7f-76d1-4666-a835-ecc4697155dd → 1650f460-1b97-4a9f-a1f6-e75fcac196c2 |
| US-GA · governor · nowcast · Keisha Lance Bottoms | 41% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 43% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 41% → 43% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0c98ee23-e4c5-4d51-9c6d-0e6c2535c9a0 → 0836126c-f021-47fd-a6fe-474383a020d8 |
| US-WY-AL · house · election_day · Lisa F. Kinney | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NH-2 · house · election_day · Maggie Goodlander | 99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA-13 · house · election_day · Jasmine Clark | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CO-2 · house · election_day · Joe Neguse | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NJ-1 · house · election_day · Donald Norcross | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL-6 · house · election_day · Sean Casten | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MA · governor · election_day · Maura Healey | >99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | >99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers413e62fe-a2a6-45af-b540-35d45bc6832a → c6b97653-29a7-49b2-8a08-8665f6de3e22 |
| US-MA · governor · nowcast · Maura Healey | >99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | >99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers07b64f41-9010-4573-9dc4-9edad7d72de3 → 81e08a9a-d4e7-4d92-a96b-eb6a2ed35dff |
| US-NV-3 · house · election_day · Susie Lee | 98% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 98% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WA-9 · house · election_day · Adam Smith | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-10 · house · election_day · Mark DeSaulnier | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-KY · senate · election_day · Charles Booker | 6% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 7% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 6% → 7% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd5304306-ef33-40a1-a57e-61a22eaf81b3 → 25dc6612-360e-47f3-8455-60a7ccc8d8d4 |
| US-KY · senate · nowcast · Charles Booker | 7% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 8% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 7% → 8% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf1a62cc6-2a55-4f92-8ea6-f1697e7ba201 → b7bc65f2-dd5e-44bf-b02c-8781373dad2b |
| US-WI-8 · house · election_day · Rick Crosson | 2% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 3% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 2% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WI · governor · election_day · David Crowley | 74% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 75% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Displayed 74% → 75% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9ece4b1e-b404-4263-bff5-17aeef066327 → df634ae9-d4b7-41e4-be87-c83f44dc52b1 |
| US-WI · governor · nowcast · David Crowley | 78% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 78% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers138ce32f-aec1-43fa-9d94-9b233f9373e5 → 2345e4da-54cb-4ef7-a508-e238678b51d9 |
| US-GA-4 · house · election_day · Hank Johnson | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY · governor · election_day · Kathy Hochul | 98% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 98% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierscddc86ba-2312-4ab2-b4f6-5e8b0ad17cdf → dc9ac197-c304-44ff-9199-8f7f286874a2 |
| US-NY · governor · nowcast · Kathy Hochul | 98% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 98% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf0008242-5070-4b84-8a15-df37cb7d64e9 → 495b74e6-c555-44b3-b571-f431f7e0f091 |
| US-CO-6 · house · election_day · Jason Crow | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MI-1 · house · election_day · Callie Barr | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-PA-14 · house · election_day · Alan Bradstock | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-ME · governor · election_day · Hannah Pingree | 98% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 98% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers15961628-c615-4fed-b8b3-f83cf2c83682 → dc62663a-f96d-4569-8a41-a70fdf753b18 |
| US-ME · governor · nowcast · Hannah Pingree | 98% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 98% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers33992f64-ec75-4558-991d-808ffb29c74e → 5984f29d-553a-4409-befc-d20003a418ed |
| US-CT-1 · house · election_day · Luke Bronin | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-24 · house · election_day · Salud Carbajal | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA-9 · house · election_day · Caitlyn Gegen | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OK-4 · house · election_day · Mitchell Jacob | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-OH-6 · house · election_day · Elizabeth Kirtley | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-31 · house · election_day · Justin Early | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 2% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WY · governor · election_day · Kenneth Casner | <1% 2026-10-25T23:39:29Z | <1% 2026-10-27T03:02:00Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa73d8900-70fd-41c6-8303-98285fbf5ebf → 77ddd5df-6d55-451f-9888-8d5191be36cf |
| US-TX-3 · house · election_day · Evan Hunt | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CO-4 · house · election_day · Eileen Laubacher | 6% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 6% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IN-9 · house · election_day · Brad Meyer | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-6 · house · election_day · Danny Minton | 1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AZ-2 · house · election_day · Jonathan Nez | 20% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 22% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 20% → 22% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-GA-7 · house · election_day · Anthony Kozycki | 5% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 6% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 5% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-PA · governor · election_day · Josh Shapiro | >99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | >99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers841cfd5e-2ed3-405c-bdd3-3fc11dd3f898 → b5f4280d-e7c4-42cf-bc86-2fe519b2e0b9 |
| US-PA · governor · nowcast · Josh Shapiro | >99% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | >99% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers18d30a0e-ac1c-4a02-b6aa-bacaf0084e40 → eec8dd45-f49c-4079-a3e2-dc2155834f69 |
| US-NJ-10 · house · election_day · LaMonica McIver | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MD-4 · house · election_day · Glenn Ivey | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NJ-11 · house · election_day · Analilia Mejia | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IL-10 · house · election_day · Brad Schneider | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-IN-4 · house · election_day · Drew Cox | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WI-1 · house · election_day · Mitchell Berman | 20% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 23% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 20% → 23% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-10 · house · election_day · Brad Lander | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-6 · house · election_day · Richard Pan | 76% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 77% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 76% → 77% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-19 · house · election_day · Kyle Rable | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WV-2 · house · election_day · Ace Parsi | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TN-9 · house · election_day · Justin J. Pearson | 6% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 7% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 6% → 7% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MI-11 · house · election_day · Jeremy Moss | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-FL-7 · house · election_day · Bale Dalton | 68% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 73% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 68% → 73% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MN · governor · election_day · Amy Klobuchar | 95% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 95% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a8d383f-88f3-47f2-9004-aea1995a18c7 → 6acd20b8-089b-4b5e-9fe9-881cf8961c80 |
| US-MN · governor · nowcast · Amy Klobuchar | 95% 2026-10-25T23:24:12Z | 95% 2026-10-27T02:46:22Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse94196f2-2b3e-4a65-9932-5cc36956d8b4 → 9be3697d-0edc-400a-8549-2c29f99d2331 |
| US-IL-2 · house · election_day · Donna Miller | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-42 · house · election_day · Robert Garcia | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CA-8 · house · election_day · John Garamendi | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-TX-18 · house · election_day · Christian Menefee | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-MI-8 · house · election_day · Kristen McDonald Rivet | 99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-11 · house · election_day · Michael DeCillis | <1% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | <1% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-WA-8 · house · election_day · Kim Schrier | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-AZ-8 · house · election_day · Bernadette Greene-Placentia | 3% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | 4% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Displayed 3% → 4% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-NY-26 · house · election_day · Tim Kennedy | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |
| US-CT-4 · house · election_day · Jim Himes | >99% 2026-10-26T02:47:48Z | >99% 2026-10-27T05:28:56Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfd1120a4-8931-4d77-9ce3-b4b113708387 → 52f87f17-651e-4ce8-9e1a-912ba043b705 |