Published forecasts: 2026-10-24

Last published snapshot for this Pacific day. These records were published at the time; no reconstructed forecasts are added.

Compared with the previous available closed day, 2026-10-23. Dates may be more than one day apart.

2026-10-23: race records · chamber records · file hashes
2026-10-24: race records · chamber records · file hashes

Chambers

Stored party-control bounds; unavailable values stay unavailable. The linked downloads retain model versions and run identifiers.

Chambers
Chamber / product	Earlier	Later
governors · election_day	D 70%–70%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-23T19:44:18Z	D 72%–72%; R 28%–28%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-24T13:07:46Z
governors · nowcast	D 67%–67%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-23T19:44:18Z	D 67%–67%; R 33%–33%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-24T13:07:46Z
house · election_day	D 83%–83%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-23T23:02:09Z	D 83%–83%; R 17%–17%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z
senate · election_day	D 53%–61%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-23T22:42:06Z	D 60%–67%; R 33%–40%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-25T00:53:29Z
senate · nowcast	D 52%–59%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-23T22:42:06Z	D 58%–64%; R 36%–42%; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-25T00:53:29Z

Races

Changes refer to the displayed, rounded percentages. Exact probabilities are in the downloads. Candidate changes are separate rows. A poll appearing between runs is not proof it caused a move. Poll arrivals, money and candidate events are not captured by these forecast files; the model and correction record provides other context.

Races
Race and subject	Earlier chance / run time	Later chance / run time	Change	Context
US-TX-22 · house · election_day · Marquette Greene-Scott	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NC-4 · house · election_day · Valerie Foushee	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OR · senate · election_day · Jeff Merkley	99% 2026-10-23T10:37:40Z	98% 2026-10-25T00:22:21Z	Displayed 99% → 98%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 9799cfd8-1f1d-45ea-8fbd-2db14edc8911 → a57ea876-f4cb-4248-9205-c6c68fc8392c
US-VA · senate · election_day · Mark Warner	93% 2026-10-23T18:20:00Z	96% 2026-10-25T00:22:21Z	Displayed 93% → 96%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers ce3ea00b-bc27-4616-8f1e-6d28db3c4cb2 → 0ec831e6-06a9-4503-a91f-9435416a22c6
US-OH-4 · house · election_day · Joshua Kolasinski	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WA-3 · house · election_day · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	45% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	45% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NC-14 · house · election_day · LaKesha Womack	7% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	7% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OK-5 · house · election_day · Jena Nelson	4% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	4% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MN-7 · house · election_day · Erik Osberg	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MT · senate · election_day · Seth Bodnar	1% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	1% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 6e2da200-572b-4377-9c59-a37bc65b748e → 9fdd54a0-324c-4a53-b4c3-997557564e31
US-MT · senate · nowcast · Seth Bodnar	1% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	1% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 73fecace-89be-46a8-871e-a2a9be9ddc0c → 5b4e0b8c-71d5-4ddf-96df-7365000e5a3d
US-CA-20 · house · election_day · Sandra Van Scotter	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AL-5 · house · election_day · Andrew Sneed	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NC-1 · house · election_day · Don Davis	85% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	85% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH-7 · house · election_day · Brian Poindexter	86% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	86% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OK-2 · house · election_day · Brandon Wade	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NC-12 · house · election_day · Alma Adams	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TN · governor · election_day · Jerri Green	2% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	1% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 2% → 1%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers b7488fda-6939-4e8b-a891-3f2ad6707088 → e4d4ae26-2a5e-466c-8f44-4e9037dcb2a5
US-TN · governor · nowcast · Jerri Green	1% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	2% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 1% → 2%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 22e5dc01-d887-4f55-b67b-7ebc58686410 → b6ee4a44-1ea5-4d2c-b04b-3de0d0ff9265
US-ID-2 · house · election_day · Ellie Gilbreath	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AZ-4 · house · election_day · Greg Stanton	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NC-9 · house · election_day · Richard Ojeda	11% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	11% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IA-2 · house · election_day · Lindsay James	49% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	49% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-38 · house · election_day · Melissa McDonough	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-LA-3 · house · election_day · Democratic Party	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-5 · house · election_day · Gregory Meeks	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AR-4 · house · election_day · James Russell	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL · senate · election_day · Angie Nixon	12% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	11% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 12% → 11%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers bd0ea61c-9e84-40e4-b20f-7287e93d3f81 → 0105744e-1e61-49e6-8248-a1769ba36e8f
US-FL · senate · nowcast · Angie Nixon	10% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	10% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 88d94cf2-f5e6-4380-9021-0970f8bea18c → 8734ebaa-473c-487d-90a9-ee928b194c9e
US-MN-5 · house · election_day · Ilhan Omar	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-28 · house · election_day · Henry Cuellar	71% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	71% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NV-2 · house · election_day · Teresa Benitez-Thompson	42% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	42% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-4 · house · election_day · Jason Pearce	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX · governor · election_day · Gina Hinojosa	22% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	25% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 22% → 25%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers c72a20b8-c68c-432f-9ac2-233b1e9bbbee → a30360a9-0d66-4fc0-9f8f-976f761f640d
US-TX · governor · nowcast · Gina Hinojosa	27% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	27% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d7f138fc-65b2-4ec3-8984-ae63627b453c → f5f2cef9-8a58-4716-b8e3-15bb25b7ffbc
US-MA-8 · house · election_day · Stephen Lynch	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NC-13 · house · election_day · Paul Barringer	2% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	2% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-7 · house · election_day · Claire Valdez	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-ND-AL · house · election_day · Trygve Hammer	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL-9 · house · election_day · Daniel Biss	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MI-2 · house · election_day · Benjamin Ambrose	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MD-6 · house · election_day · April McClain Delaney	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AL-7 · house · election_day · Terri Sewell	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-33 · house · election_day · Pete Aguilar	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-24 · house · election_day · Oliver Gilbert	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-VA-2 · house · election_day · Elaine Luria	61% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	61% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-4 · house · election_day · LaShonda Holloway	5% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	5% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MI-10 · house · election_day · Christina Hines	44% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	44% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MN-2 · house · election_day · Matt Little	89% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	89% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-8 · house · election_day · Jennifer Jenkins	3% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	3% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-51 · house · election_day · Sara Jacobs	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-16 · house · election_day · Sam Liccardo	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OR-6 · house · election_day · Andrea Salinas	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-VA-10 · house · election_day · Suhas Subramanyam	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-28 · house · election_day · Judy Chu	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL-4 · house · election_day · Patty Garcia	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OR-3 · house · election_day · Maxine Dexter	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NM · governor · election_day · Deb Haaland	91% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	92% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 91% → 92%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 2216f58e-3b1a-4344-8996-5cde1a13df95 → b1c4423d-893e-473f-a50f-91fd57f50922
US-NM · governor · nowcast · Deb Haaland	91% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	92% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 91% → 92%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 9ae3f14d-37d4-41c9-987f-09ba5ef3723a → cce89548-150d-418f-8002-d2eca879ef32
US-TX-29 · house · election_day · Sylvia Garcia	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OR-5 · house · election_day · Janelle Bynum	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA-3 · house · election_day · Maura Keller	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-5 · house · election_day · Michael Masuda	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-21 · house · election_day · Blake Gendebien	27% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	26% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 27% → 26%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-15 · house · election_day · Kevin Mullin	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-27 · house · election_day · Eliott Rodriguez	15% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	15% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MO-1 · house · election_day · Wesley Bell	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-KY-1 · house · election_day · John "Drew" Williams	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-SC-3 · house · election_day · Eunice Lehmacher	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA-14 · house · election_day · Shawn Harris	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-ID · senate · election_day · Todd Achilles	3% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	2% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 3% → 2%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 2870070d-cf9f-41af-bc60-447c3550b138 → d04ba105-d96e-4e50-b10b-fbb5f4769180
US-ID · senate · nowcast · Todd Achilles	2% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	2% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 98d76abd-d7ce-4b99-8e5e-7b42731d8436 → 6b423c55-aa5e-43ab-9675-c4b832ca5e4b
US-TN-2 · house · election_day · Michaela Barnett	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CO-7 · house · election_day · Brittany Pettersen	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-PA-8 · house · election_day · Paige Cognetti	49% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	49% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-KS-2 · house · election_day · Don Coover	2% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	2% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-14 · house · election_day · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH · governor · election_day · Amy Acton	72% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	70% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 72% → 70%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 351086ac-3c05-4af9-9a10-398677c5c0f3 → 3eb6b930-1ae0-4dbc-bd9a-a60dfe12490c
US-OH · governor · nowcast · Amy Acton	76% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	76% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 4d1c4baa-41e4-4834-a7b0-471053dfdb8f → dfcbc831-45c9-4f97-b4df-606bd3105506
US-AR · governor · election_day · Fredrick Love	4% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	4% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers b914f99a-b742-4573-a22d-7fb861fbbd42 → 20ca3f0c-a6d8-4c17-92b6-e8a5e4f83eb9
US-AR · governor · nowcast · Fredrick Love	7% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	6% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 7% → 6%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 2f33a460-d504-414b-8972-d09623826a90 → 91c34f96-c2de-4a67-8503-d951bc65afe5
US-MO-6 · house · election_day · Josh Smead	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-KS · senate · election_day · Adam Hamilton	40% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	33% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 40% → 33%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers f7b4b5cb-62b1-4cf2-b549-f35768492282 → 026fb47b-b195-41ca-a16b-3abb88bb4b2e
US-KS · senate · nowcast · Adam Hamilton	53% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	53% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 1d487307-c93d-4b35-a8c4-70521c205b37 → 2ad422b9-2c8a-4272-b6ac-8e142d7ab2d8
US-ME · senate · election_day · Troy Jackson	54% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	53% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 54% → 53%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d90c7f88-9398-4a49-8d17-32e7e8f9b2a2 → b74269ce-e2d0-4a01-8a0c-ca0c2e6f7cf0
US-ME · senate · nowcast · Troy Jackson	65% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	65% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 1c393652-0e17-4e61-b32b-5e2220904973 → f9465e29-607e-4838-8e59-3c245e5e66bf
US-CA-13 · house · election_day · Adam Gray	97% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	97% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-17 · house · election_day · Casey Shepard	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL-11 · house · election_day · Bill Foster	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-28 · house · election_day · Phil Ehr	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MO-5 · house · election_day · Emanuel Cleaver	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-22 · house · election_day · John Mannion	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MD · governor · election_day · Wes Moore	>99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	>99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers e3f4cc16-2199-4d2f-9fb9-d05f1e7489b1 → 2672758e-3ce8-4782-8156-206fb1a82ebb
US-MD · governor · nowcast · Wes Moore	>99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	>99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers beef5da4-f092-449a-99c9-e92bb0e8cd30 → e1da2920-1d07-409e-96eb-b18c6c97c5a3
US-CO-5 · house · election_day · Jessica Killin	28% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	29% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 28% → 29%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-2 · house · election_day · Amanda Green	4% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	4% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MA-3 · house · election_day · Lori Trahan	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH-3 · house · election_day · Joyce Beatty	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NH · governor · election_day · Cinde Warmington	7% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	7% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 54945e03-8075-4f93-9525-902352d9a762 → b4a97b91-3a42-4693-8f08-d139315c2fd0
US-NH · governor · nowcast · Cinde Warmington	4% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	4% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers c21770ad-cbef-483f-b9cc-e25ced730150 → 24d734de-914a-42c7-b37b-da23156b55ad
US-NC-7 · house · election_day · Kimberly Hardy	6% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	6% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WV · senate · election_day · Rachel Fetty Anderson	<1% 2026-10-23T10:37:40Z	1% 2026-10-25T00:22:21Z	Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers ea594de8-e610-43e5-adb9-c186ffa98510 → 62249c37-80a2-48de-9299-a536c0dd737e
US-OK · senate · election_day · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas	1% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	1% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 421cd9ad-e408-4c34-b97d-4a7c76e11824 → 86b4159b-dd02-4cca-b20d-8bc1c7a736ec
US-OK · senate · nowcast · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas	<1% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	<1% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 4e56b063-fb5b-4b87-b7ac-160f390a9ffc → 06f27a3a-c6d2-41f3-8d57-915f82321769
US-CA-32 · house · election_day · Brad Sherman	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NE · senate · election_day · Dan Osborn	48% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	46% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 48% → 46%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 72a8c030-2736-49d0-80aa-0e91f1576cde → da7a2fc8-55a7-4217-be9b-d24d9b4f9e6b
US-NE · senate · nowcast · Dan Osborn	48% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	46% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 48% → 46%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 3cb141d1-4494-4420-9aea-54f0f305be35 → 28d6ca4b-19b7-4ccd-a134-06550c411c12
US-TN-1 · house · election_day · Kristi Burke	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-12 · house · election_day · Angela Rodriguez Prilliman	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MS-4 · house · election_day · Jeffrey Hulum III	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OK-1 · house · election_day · John Croisant	2% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	2% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WA-2 · house · election_day · Rick Larsen	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-SC-7 · house · election_day · John Vincent	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OK-3 · house · election_day · Suzie Byrd	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-ID · governor · election_day · Terri Pickens	<1% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	<1% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers da4e019d-7fe4-4537-a1e7-66ae7cb2202e → 74b82421-8b00-4fbc-b4b6-febc7dc07ab8
US-ID · governor · nowcast · Terri Pickens	1% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	1% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 0af90242-fd07-4b3a-82b5-d54953b3859b → ded08ffb-9b56-4903-9fde-830870c126a1
US-TX-8 · house · election_day · Laura Jones	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA-1 · house · election_day · Amanda Hollowell	5% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	5% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-UT-1 · house · election_day · Ben McAdams	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL · senate · election_day · Juliana Stratton	97% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	97% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d252dc81-061a-49aa-99f9-222b044df47d → 696ef810-9663-4ac3-837f-f7efb1eebd92
US-IL · senate · nowcast · Juliana Stratton	95% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	95% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers a079e9cc-7bd8-4214-9c1f-22187128a157 → 6fc0081f-5f67-4f68-be78-6609f2f450c3
US-ME-1 · house · election_day · Chellie Pingree	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-PA-2 · house · election_day · Brendan Boyle	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH · senate · election_day · Sherrod Brown	75% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	76% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 75% → 76%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d6dd6514-f89b-4782-9fc1-e5eecf71448d → 785a1501-68bb-4414-9a1a-0fce929b6e1e
US-OH · senate · nowcast · Sherrod Brown	79% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	79% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 4f74586f-a1ae-4b73-9749-249dec9e1a79 → 3e99cd51-f1c3-4746-a7be-fe8cd9c84794
US-CA-23 · house · election_day · Tessa Lynn Hodge	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WA-7 · house · election_day · Pramila Jayapal	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MN-6 · house · election_day · Doug Chapin	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-1 · house · election_day · Chris Gallant	13% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	13% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AZ-7 · house · election_day · Adelita Grijalva	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CT-3 · house · election_day · Rosa DeLauro	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-PA-4 · house · election_day · Madeleine Dean	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-23 · house · election_day · Aaron Gies	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NJ-6 · house · election_day · Frank Pallone	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-2 · house · election_day · Shaun Finnie	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-UT-2 · house · election_day · Peter Crosby	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-KY-5 · house · election_day · Ned Pillersdorf	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-16 · house · election_day · Kelly Kirschner	20% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	20% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL-5 · house · election_day · Mike Quigley	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MS-3 · house · election_day · Michael Chiaradio	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH-15 · house · election_day · Don Leonard	35% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	35% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MA-4 · house · election_day · Jake Auchincloss	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-LA-4 · house · election_day · Democratic Party	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-11 · house · election_day · James Pericola	5% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	5% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-14 · house · election_day · Thurman Bartie	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-ME-2 · house · election_day · Matthew Dunlap	31% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	31% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IA · governor · election_day · Rob Sand	85% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	85% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 6f094bb7-d204-486d-b26c-30bf31e97dfc → e33e1091-28e2-4134-b3e0-bab44e98f4d4
US-IA · governor · nowcast · Rob Sand	93% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	93% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d997f3b4-6781-4aec-a76f-e608d6f8b67f → 71c2009a-6a76-407c-9643-d840fa4dd532
US-PA-10 · house · election_day · Janelle Stelson	70% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	70% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-RI · governor · election_day · Helena Foulkes	99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers b4e17194-c80c-406f-9779-83dc2249213b → c65fb7ef-7c68-43d9-a65b-8f6ff8856a26
US-RI · governor · nowcast · Helena Foulkes	99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 3ffdfc76-e294-4de4-9e38-1f6db267fe01 → 53b9154d-78ec-4281-b7b7-7561dd4f8d11
US-FL-6 · house · election_day · Eric Yonce	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CT · governor · election_day · Ned Lamont	99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 55c6e6c9-000e-4751-aa4b-b4b22ab8853a → 45d48cb0-9f6d-4ece-ad0d-1b657fcd980f
US-CT · governor · nowcast · Ned Lamont	>99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	>99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers a8523871-af72-4b30-9c66-5d6f81e2fefb → 3a1066e8-87f2-4577-a8b5-c8df859866bd
US-AL · senate · election_day · Everett Wess	2% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	2% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 9c3fa43a-f7cb-4466-9b7a-e94dcf772c47 → 4c33bd86-8315-411d-a8c2-b595b369dbad
US-AL · senate · nowcast · Everett Wess	2% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	3% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 2% → 3%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 86d01473-70c5-441c-8cfa-e1270d182f5c → 6e8b05b5-a404-4bf2-a096-cf57e7e60bdf
US-FL-5 · house · election_day · Rachel Grage	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AL-4 · house · election_day · Amanda Pusczek	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MN · senate · election_day · Peggy Flanagan	87% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	90% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 87% → 90%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers f2f084bb-99af-430b-8b03-17b81aed03a3 → 0b0ba938-bfcd-4d0c-9b5c-e719aeca3315
US-MN · senate · nowcast · Peggy Flanagan	77% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	77% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers e3b2a1b6-ee84-4930-9826-432af9602191 → e28841be-f15d-4464-bd4c-5535dfeb4fa9
US-TN-7 · house · election_day · Darden Copeland	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-15 · house · election_day · Robert People	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-43 · house · election_day · Maxine Waters	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CO · governor · election_day · Phil Weiser	97% 2026-10-23T10:37:40Z	98% 2026-10-25T00:22:21Z	Displayed 97% → 98%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers def738bf-fa4d-4bbf-bc3b-21b610927f7d → 4c14e458-8a7d-4193-8939-658e4a284be7
US-WI-6 · house · election_day · Brad Smith	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MD-7 · house · election_day · Kweisi Mfume	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MN-3 · house · election_day · Kelly Morrison	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-32 · house · election_day · Dan Barrios	4% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	4% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TN-4 · house · election_day · Victoria Broderick	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MD-2 · house · election_day · Johnny Olszewski	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TN-8 · house · election_day · Heidi Kuhn	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NE-3 · house · election_day · Becky Stille	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MS · senate · election_day · Scott Colom	10% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	7% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 10% → 7%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 859b4360-706e-4361-8419-3d01d8190415 → 46928308-a060-48c3-bb59-397fad9812c1
US-MS · senate · nowcast · Scott Colom	19% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	17% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 19% → 17%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 8c38b2d3-802f-4622-b07c-ddd66dfc4512 → 64cab0b8-9b66-45e2-bcc2-8f380b012b28
US-NM-3 · house · election_day · Teresa Leger Fernández	99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NJ-2 · house · election_day · Zack Mullock	4% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	4% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-KY-2 · house · election_day · Megan Wingfield	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL-14 · house · election_day · Lauren Underwood	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-34 · house · election_day · Vicente Gonzalez	65% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	70% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 65% → 70%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX · senate · election_day · James Talarico	57% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	62% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 57% → 62%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 6771553d-40cd-4250-b044-65088c8fbd35 → 501174f2-c012-487b-90f2-d3d9fd6a8ab6
US-TX · senate · nowcast · James Talarico	70% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	70% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 30e6765b-dbe6-4332-af64-da5a42cdcb58 → f4e281da-f183-4665-8459-e341ac125b58
US-OH-13 · house · election_day · Emilia Sykes	99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL · governor · election_day · David Jolly	22% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	21% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 22% → 21%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 3e7e5faf-f812-4ef4-833e-2a6a5e8f4185 → ca03b97a-502c-4561-8b0f-9126ecbdc59a
US-FL · governor · nowcast · David Jolly	18% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	18% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 2b158746-f201-4d5a-b726-f8ba4768a6c2 → 4459bc13-7ad2-49e3-b68a-d4a62baf09a0
US-MI-13 · house · election_day · Donavan McKinney	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NJ-12 · house · election_day · Adam Hamawy	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-SC-6 · house · election_day · Jim Clyburn	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH-9 · house · election_day · Marcy Kaptur	71% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	71% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WI-3 · house · election_day · Rebecca Cooke	53% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	53% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NE-2 · house · election_day · Denise Powell	88% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	88% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-VA-3 · house · election_day · Bobby Scott	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-VA-6 · house · election_day · Beth Macy	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-22 · house · election_day · Randy Villegas	46% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	46% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH-8 · house · election_day · Vanessa Enoch	3% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	3% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AZ · governor · election_day · Katie Hobbs	93% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	94% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 93% → 94%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 8b047a85-ddb0-4d47-89b9-6bcaa4e73d53 → 995f296e-1774-4c58-aa8c-6883ab4caa49
US-AZ · governor · nowcast · Katie Hobbs	93% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	92% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 93% → 92%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 2b28db04-840d-41ba-a8cd-14a5c6031734 → 15444924-ba86-46e6-bf9c-d82f97813214
US-VT · governor · election_day · Amanda Janoo	7% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	7% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers f0269637-f156-4c2e-a21d-def12619e39b → 03ce4e09-f712-48af-bd9d-efcefe127c07
US-VT · governor · nowcast · Amanda Janoo	14% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	14% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers e26957e5-c9d7-4fee-8bd8-735cff1e4e04 → c443af3c-d6cc-44b6-b9ee-37a8cc1415af
US-MI-6 · house · election_day · Debbie Dingell	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MI-7 · house · election_day · William Lawrence	41% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	41% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IN-3 · house · election_day · Kelly Thompson	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WA-5 · house · election_day · Carmela Conroy	4% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	4% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-LA · senate · election_day · Jamie Davis	12% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	11% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 12% → 11%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers c5602227-2e99-4e5b-a48d-42b4f67308be → 8dd654d9-ed90-4f91-9863-0aff37eb7247
US-LA · senate · nowcast · Jamie Davis	15% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	13% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 15% → 13%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 9389cfcf-8bc8-400e-892c-e4ee10c4d03d → 717adcc8-a9db-407f-890f-8421654b5a9f
US-NE · governor · election_day · Lynne Walz	21% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	20% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 21% → 20%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers ed07e21c-2a75-4b63-8d94-b4c219238c22 → e32146a7-9656-44fb-a4cf-fccf384ec107
US-NE · governor · nowcast · Lynne Walz	24% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	25% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 24% → 25%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers e0f96ecb-fb0e-47a2-96a0-80f50145be3b → d7a157cb-95a9-4047-9618-d670b55a351a
US-TX-1 · house · election_day · Yolanda Prince	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-39 · house · election_day · Mark Takano	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-35 · house · election_day · Johnny Garcia	43% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	51% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 43% → 51%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-PA-9 · house · election_day · Rachel Wallace	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NC-11 · house · election_day · Jamie Ager	87% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	87% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MT-2 · house · election_day · Brian Miller	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NC-5 · house · election_day · Chuck Hubbard	5% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	5% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MI-3 · house · election_day · Hillary Scholten	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA-11 · house · election_day · Chris Harden	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-13 · house · election_day · Mark Nair	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-KS · governor · election_day · Cindy Holscher	36% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	35% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 36% → 35%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers c6a5a9f9-8bbc-45e1-9513-19adddd3750c → e05d7e88-5c7f-4873-ab06-2c3e4f1bfa10
US-KS · governor · nowcast · Cindy Holscher	26% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	29% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 26% → 29%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 0c838a02-78a0-4ae4-b06a-a5a02244a46f → a2fdd446-6ed2-4390-a3fc-5dee4cd85faf
US-AL-6 · house · election_day · Maurice Mercer	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NE-1 · house · election_day · Chris Backemeyer	12% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	12% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WI-5 · house · election_day · Andrew Beck	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-HI · governor · election_day · Josh Green	>99% 2026-10-23T10:37:40Z	99% 2026-10-25T00:22:21Z	Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 1e51c87b-66c3-4167-b1a9-9325478542a0 → e4930841-41c4-4b7e-abd4-c2ebe6684aca
US-FL-21 · house · election_day · James Martin	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-25 · house · election_day · Dione Sims	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WA-4 · house · election_day · John Duresky	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-48 · house · election_day · Marni von Wilpert	85% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	85% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-9 · house · election_day · Darren Soto	42% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	42% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-2 · house · election_day · Patrick Halpin	2% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	2% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-2 · house · election_day · Jared Huffman	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IN-8 · house · election_day · Mary Allen	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-RI-2 · house · election_day · Seth Magaziner	99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH-1 · house · election_day · Greg Landsman	91% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	91% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WY · senate · election_day · James W. Byrd	<1% 2026-10-23T10:37:40Z	<1% 2026-10-25T00:22:21Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 425cb796-b80e-4c6d-a50b-4658e8bf081c → 01e4a3e0-f7ee-4469-b03c-16e45a479ffc
US-CA-18 · house · election_day · Zoe Lofgren	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-47 · house · election_day · Dave Min	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-UT-4 · house · election_day · Jonny Larsen	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL-13 · house · election_day · Nikki Budzinski	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NC · senate · election_day · Roy Cooper	96% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	96% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 7491218e-0c15-44a8-a893-f3a591ee0b8b → 15042813-cb27-4f66-b51d-d120f48ee609
US-NC · senate · nowcast · Roy Cooper	97% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	97% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 41a3b3b2-9c62-439c-90ca-8fed1059ed5a → 3edc9986-5382-4f12-85df-e03ad3723b52
US-NV-1 · house · election_day · Dina Titus	98% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	98% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-4 · house · election_day · Laura Gillen	98% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	98% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NJ-4 · house · election_day · Rachel Peace	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OR · governor · election_day · Tina Kotek	78% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	83% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 78% → 83%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d11c9f00-61f3-4032-9508-78f878625414 → 5228e658-ec84-4d01-86ba-c9ee80d18b7e
US-OR · governor · nowcast · Tina Kotek	57% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	56% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 57% → 56%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 127bb6c1-a03c-435e-b1c2-1b8aa465fb06 → 750208a3-037d-4a5c-9d53-6db350310840
US-SC · governor · election_day · Jermaine Johnson	5% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	4% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 5% → 4%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 7f8f6de2-2c00-4d21-a793-fcf296920bc0 → 1cffc39f-4331-44f0-a610-b8f2d12ad2e1
US-SC · governor · nowcast · Jermaine Johnson	3% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	3% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers b099d0a7-f52d-4119-9751-156287135060 → 2acced85-01e6-4fb0-835c-614b5bf4fd7e
US-MN-8 · house · election_day · Trina Swanson	3% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	3% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA-6 · house · election_day · Lucy McBath	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-SD · senate · election_day · Brian Bengs	8% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	6% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 8% → 6%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 03f688ed-bd52-48e2-a261-fef57a741210 → c16befa5-1b9e-47e4-ad97-43b28b1f3427
US-SD · senate · nowcast · Brian Bengs	6% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	4% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 6% → 4%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 292b5b23-7b3d-4554-bd4e-420a6e9b957c → daff2f0c-c171-4a3e-9e12-4618727883f1
US-ID-1 · house · election_day · Kaylee Peterson	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH-2 · house · election_day · Jennifer Mazzuckelli	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-1 · house · election_day · Gay Valimont	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-31 · house · election_day · Gil Cisneros	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-HI-2 · house · election_day · Jill Tokuda	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-VA-8 · house · election_day · Don Beyer	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CO-1 · house · election_day · Melat Kiros	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-PA-11 · house · election_day · Nancy Mannion	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AR · senate · election_day · Hallie Shoffner	2% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	2% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 257004e4-a530-4d04-992c-a5f2835b5977 → aa59e3e8-b254-4246-9667-2da709972597
US-AR · senate · nowcast · Hallie Shoffner	4% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	4% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 6774146e-58a9-48ac-894b-4b7db0470e17 → dc60fc1b-bcf1-4271-80aa-5612b818083d
US-PA-15 · house · election_day · Ray Bilger	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AZ-5 · house · election_day · Elizabeth Lee	4% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	4% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NC-2 · house · election_day · Deborah Ross	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MN-4 · house · election_day · Betty McCollum	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-3 · house · election_day · Ami Bera	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NC-6 · house · election_day · Cyril Jefferson	3% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	3% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IA-3 · house · election_day · Sarah Trone Garriott	54% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	55% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 54% → 55%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-DE-AL · house · election_day · Sarah McBride	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OR-4 · house · election_day · Val Hoyle	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-PA-17 · house · election_day · Chris Deluzio	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA-5 · house · election_day · Nikema Williams	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NM-1 · house · election_day · Melanie Stansbury	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-41 · house · election_day · Linda Sánchez	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-38 · house · election_day · Hilda Solis	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-LA-1 · house · election_day · Democratic Party	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-14 · house · election_day · Kathy Castor	84% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	84% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MD-8 · house · election_day · Jamie Raskin	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH-14 · house · election_day · Maria Jukic	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-12 · house · election_day · Micah Lasher	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-21 · house · election_day · Jim Costa	98% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 98% → 99%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NJ-9 · house · election_day · Nellie Pou	99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AL-1 · house · election_day · Clyde Jones	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-18 · house · election_day · Pat Ryan	99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-PA-1 · house · election_day · Bob Harvie	27% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	27% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-6 · house · election_day · Grace Meng	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA · governor · election_day · Xavier Becerra	>99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	>99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 5816673e-fd3c-4f9b-9de5-f3b16b971441 → e7ea5acf-7b68-45c6-8331-8d52c6d5dc19
US-CA · governor · nowcast · Xavier Becerra	>99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	>99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers bcad26de-b2a5-4233-924c-b0e4da2ead78 → 0213ff97-8f6d-4e5d-a432-a611c812b63b
US-WI-4 · house · election_day · Gwen Moore	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AL · governor · election_day · Doug Jones	2% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	2% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 87f83a60-c47a-46e6-805d-610a095d2b68 → 3645de95-8f7f-4ab1-bd96-6635000fe126
US-AL · governor · nowcast · Doug Jones	2% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	2% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers a3602035-870b-4eaf-94ea-e117aac589db → 98051200-b4dc-42f5-b9a4-f98f611c8144
US-FL-25 · house · election_day · Jared Moskowitz	83% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	83% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-24 · house · election_day · Kevin Burge	3% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	3% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL-3 · house · election_day · Delia Ramirez	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA-10 · house · election_day · Pamela DeLancy	4% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	4% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-26 · house · election_day · Nicole Locklin	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MO-4 · house · election_day · Jordan Herrera	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-PA-7 · house · election_day · Bob Brooks	67% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	67% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-VA-7 · house · election_day · Eugene Vindman	98% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	98% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL-12 · house · election_day · Julie Fortier	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OK · governor · election_day · Cyndi Munson	17% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	15% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 17% → 15%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 8659c478-fda0-49af-94ef-38a063929bc1 → 10a141c0-a836-4e30-b315-dd0fb4772145
US-OK · governor · nowcast · Cyndi Munson	28% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	27% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 28% → 27%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 324b9cbd-f081-4f8b-a081-853292833e1f → cfb2891f-9778-46c2-8831-c2fb8022e1be
US-TN-3 · house · election_day · Anna Golladay	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MI · governor · election_day · Jocelyn Benson	93% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	93% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers c9e8bd43-b6f8-4702-8c85-895957c284a6 → a586e384-1487-47ce-be29-5b535852a909
US-MI · governor · nowcast · Jocelyn Benson	93% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	93% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 97630305-98f0-47d4-9af0-4b6bfe3215d9 → 948087ef-60ee-483a-b890-6cf46d03f907
US-MA · senate · election_day · Ed Markey	>99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	>99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers e95a4ee2-d370-4ea6-aac0-ea6162813eb0 → 78ad9426-573f-4304-9322-2dba17027533
US-MA · senate · nowcast · Ed Markey	>99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	>99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 1eaa4745-2c5f-4504-a97c-ad082f32b04e → ecf8ba78-0047-44b6-8e90-e0b36d252cca
US-IL-7 · house · election_day · La Shawn Ford	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH-11 · house · election_day · Shontel Brown	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-VA-5 · house · election_day · Tom Perriello	15% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	15% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL-1 · house · election_day · Jonathan Jackson	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AR-2 · house · election_day · Chris Jones	24% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	24% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-23 · house · election_day · Lois Frankel	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AK · governor · election_day · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	89% 2026-10-23T22:42:08Z	89% 2026-10-25T00:53:32Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 28d954fd-fd9a-447c-88df-a05006a01e49 → 815d74ca-b8ab-4ea2-a0c4-78cd92289637
US-AK · governor · nowcast · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	90% 2026-10-23T22:42:08Z	90% 2026-10-25T00:53:32Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d3e8cdd0-d0b1-40b4-b91f-03a931920f80 → 86e99528-ea7c-42e5-b8b2-be23c12d0b03
US-MI-5 · house · election_day · Christian Vukasovich	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NH-1 · house · election_day · Stefany Shaheen	89% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	83% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 89% → 83%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-VA-11 · house · election_day · James Walkinshaw	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-22 · house · election_day · Pia Dandiya	47% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	47% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-18 · house · election_day · Curtis Gibson	2% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	2% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AK-AL · house · election_day · Bill Hill	36% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	36% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-1 · house · election_day · Mike McGuire	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-RI-1 · house · election_day · Gabe Amo	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MO-8 · house · election_day · Christopher Reichard	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NJ · senate · election_day · Cory Booker	94% 2026-10-23T10:37:40Z	97% 2026-10-25T00:22:21Z	Displayed 94% → 97%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers b7747f69-31af-4da6-a41b-9be8768ea395 → e97e92db-0dfe-4ffd-9d43-c1338f671b1d
US-PA-12 · house · election_day · Summer Lee	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-KY-4 · house · election_day · Melissa Claire Strange	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-3 · house · election_day · Tom Suozzi	94% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	94% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IN-7 · house · election_day · André Carson	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IA · senate · election_day · Josh Turek	54% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	50% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 54% → 50%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers c61d917a-5073-4b4b-8b0f-262cd9077efb → 09a4dbce-5cda-4a96-ac94-9926bbaa8435
US-IA · senate · nowcast · Josh Turek	55% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	53% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 55% → 53%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers ed50617c-12d4-4ed7-867f-9e6ae31a1b1c → 3d709e66-1067-48db-af72-4facc7c6e724
US-NY-13 · house · election_day · Darializa Avila Chevalier	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-36 · house · election_day · Rhonda Hart	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-23 · house · election_day · Katy Padilla Stout	17% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	18% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 17% → 18%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-7 · house · election_day · Lizzie Fletcher	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IA-4 · house · election_day · Dave Dawson	2% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	2% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CO · senate · election_day · John Hickenlooper	98% 2026-10-23T10:37:40Z	97% 2026-10-25T00:22:21Z	Displayed 98% → 97%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 29778625-617b-4e3b-95bd-fc8f433bf766 → 8c3208bb-25ba-48c1-8a4b-2b379040de3b
US-AL-3 · house · election_day · Lee McInnis	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-36 · house · election_day · Ted Lieu	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MT-1 · house · election_day · Sam Forstag	38% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	38% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MD-5 · house · election_day · Adrian Boafo	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-19 · house · election_day · Jimmy Panetta	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-33 · house · election_day · Colin Allred	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-20 · house · election_day · Paul Tonko	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA-2 · house · election_day · Sanford Bishop	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NC-3 · house · election_day · Raymond Smith Jr.	16% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	22% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 16% → 22%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-52 · house · election_day · Juan Vargas	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OR-2 · house · election_day · Chris Beck	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-LA-5 · house · election_day · Democratic Party	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OR-1 · house · election_day · Suzanne Bonamici	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NM · senate · election_day · Ben Ray Luján	94% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	95% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 94% → 95%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 45a7162b-6404-41d5-98e1-f6500b24dc48 → 46e69bc9-eeca-4ebc-b1d9-e2d8ba41f92e
US-NM · senate · nowcast · Ben Ray Luján	93% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	93% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers aabf7bbd-e9a5-4a74-89ba-61dc684acf52 → a8fb3a75-da53-4390-8663-fc9584553c71
US-NC-10 · house · election_day · Ashley Bell	2% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	2% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH-12 · house · election_day · Jerrad Christian	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MO-2 · house · election_day · Fred Wellman	44% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	44% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-PA-16 · house · election_day · Justin Wagner	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-26 · house · election_day · Jacqui Irwin	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WA-10 · house · election_day · Marilyn Strickland	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-KS-4 · house · election_day · Katy Tyndell	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CO-8 · house · election_day · Manny Rutinel	62% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	65% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 62% → 65%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MI-4 · house · election_day · Sean McCann	34% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	34% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-30 · house · election_day · Laura Friedman	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-5 · house · election_day · Chelsey Hockett	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MO-3 · house · election_day · Bethany Mann	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-SD · governor · election_day · Dan Ahlers	2% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	2% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 57657f16-f49d-482f-a831-1f1cd04691bd → a3807b18-5b3a-488e-b969-f3a6269191dd
US-SD · governor · nowcast · Dan Ahlers	4% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	4% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 35a3301e-560c-4088-a449-31e8ef5840c2 → 8a57ecc9-0f89-4f9a-9f55-75e6eedd9399
US-AR-3 · house · election_day · Robb Ryerse	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-17 · house · election_day · Ro Khanna	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MI-9 · house · election_day · Ray Pooley	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-11 · house · election_day · Claire Reynolds	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-SC · senate · election_day · Annie Andrews	19% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	20% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 19% → 20%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 52738085-7259-43a6-b175-bb1a1126a943 → cecde276-1e64-4e99-a1ed-39e55e0ab4a8
US-SC · senate · nowcast · Annie Andrews	27% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	31% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 27% → 31%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 5e54384b-7137-491e-9f3f-1901faf33fe2 → 2be96b5f-1517-4809-b3b2-0a01fc931cfc
US-IL-15 · house · election_day · Jennifer Todd	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-9 · house · election_day · Yvette Clarke	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA · senate · election_day · Jon Ossoff	93% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	94% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 93% → 94%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 546379f3-801a-4064-8c18-fdda166c8f71 → 31027812-f063-4df7-9f02-9ea159dba424
US-GA · senate · nowcast · Jon Ossoff	94% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	94% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 78b31dd6-0039-475f-8f77-415923226c7f → 4530f562-a8c9-4e5d-87bc-c804405d4f00
US-NY-19 · house · election_day · Josh Riley	99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-VA-4 · house · election_day · Jennifer McClellan	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MS-1 · house · election_day · Cliff Johnson	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-DE · senate · election_day · Chris Coons	99% 2026-10-23T10:37:40Z	99% 2026-10-25T00:22:21Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers a786ee0f-9b6e-44e2-b2b4-bc5cac6bdc79 → cc3bf661-113d-4576-aac1-f89654b81f84
US-IL · governor · election_day · JB Pritzker	97% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	97% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 89c6da72-6f25-4845-8203-88fef2525332 → 67264cdf-e981-4ede-bf0b-46109960f5ae
US-IL · governor · nowcast · JB Pritzker	98% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	97% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 98% → 97%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 72780637-35be-483a-833e-e9f58dc87c6b → f90bc6fe-b758-4f30-8fb9-237b73840a6e
US-WA-6 · house · election_day · Emily Randall	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-19 · house · election_day · Victor Arias	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-SC-1 · house · election_day · Nancy Lacore	31% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	35% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 31% → 35%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH-10 · house · election_day · Kristina Knickerbocker	7% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	7% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-3 · house · election_day · Seth Harp	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-RI · senate · election_day · Jack Reed	>99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	>99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 5f740be1-9654-4af4-a251-e37e2bdd20d8 → 73931ab5-9503-4b91-bd1e-7593eb1da933
US-RI · senate · nowcast · Jack Reed	>99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	>99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers de4ce6bd-e549-4880-84a7-6af05872ce28 → 006cc760-6cd4-4ea2-b9a8-206ae54baafc
US-CA-44 · house · election_day · Nanette Barragán	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NH · senate · election_day · Chris Pappas	90% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	91% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 90% → 91%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 36fd8f92-7b0c-4f86-8a3f-6a758fb1fa47 → 5543ef02-946c-40f6-914f-dd6ef840e63a
US-NH · senate · nowcast · Chris Pappas	87% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	87% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 83656abb-12a3-45fe-b0b4-c57d088cc53e → da6b1d7e-20d9-4b36-b1a2-c4b8b80f0d39
US-AZ-9 · house · election_day · Danielle Sterbinsky	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-17 · house · election_day · Cait Conley	51% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	51% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-21 · house · election_day · Kristin Hook	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MA-6 · house · election_day · Dan Koh	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL-17 · house · election_day · Eric Sorensen	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NM-2 · house · election_day · Gabe Vasquez	82% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	82% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-VA-9 · house · election_day · Joy Powers	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IN-1 · house · election_day · Frank Mrvan	99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-8 · house · election_day · Hakeem Jeffries	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AR-1 · house · election_day · Terri Yarbrough	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-KY-6 · house · election_day · Zach Dembo	55% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	55% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MI-12 · house · election_day · Rashida Tlaib	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TN-6 · house · election_day · Mike Croley	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-PA-5 · house · election_day · Mary Gay Scanlon	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NV · governor · election_day · Aaron Ford	36% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	36% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers bafa0bb0-5b82-4149-bcec-41a05a9197d4 → 86064600-d50d-4759-90a1-9fd7b71be6d6
US-NV · governor · nowcast · Aaron Ford	30% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	30% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 272e03e6-4624-44ec-8768-e6f6afe60045 → ac1be506-b936-4e62-b177-c441b3fd6226
US-SC-4 · house · election_day · Courtney McClain	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IN-5 · house · election_day · J.D. Ford	15% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	14% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 15% → 14%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-35 · house · election_day · Norma Torres	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-24 · house · election_day · Alissa Ellman	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-LA-6 · house · election_day · Democratic Party	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AZ-1 · house · election_day · Amish Shah	69% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	69% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WV-1 · house · election_day · Vince George	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NJ-3 · house · election_day · Herb Conaway	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IN-2 · house · election_day · Jamee Decio	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-27 · house · election_day · George Whitesides	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-37 · house · election_day · Greg Casar	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-49 · house · election_day · Mike Levin	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TN-5 · house · election_day · Chaz Molder	12% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	12% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA-12 · house · election_day · Ceretta Smith	2% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	2% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AZ-6 · house · election_day · JoAnna Mendoza	60% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	62% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 60% → 62%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-SC-2 · house · election_day · Zyon Khalifa	4% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	4% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-20 · house · election_day · Joaquin Castro	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WA-1 · house · election_day · Suzan DelBene	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-PA-13 · house · election_day · Beth Farnham	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AK · senate · election_day · Mary Peltola	61% 2026-10-23T22:42:08Z	61% 2026-10-25T00:53:32Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 3c503f49-ce68-4473-ad02-62fa15cb3816 → 9848b962-f58c-42a4-af38-5a69da59620a
US-AK · senate · nowcast · Mary Peltola	62% 2026-10-23T22:42:08Z	62% 2026-10-25T00:53:32Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 9c2a2d69-883b-4bb5-a56d-43fcf1c25478 → 8c6a0262-4519-4950-8161-9dcac3f3336b
US-NJ-7 · house · election_day · Rebecca Bennett	68% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	68% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TN · senate · election_day · Marquita Bradshaw	1% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	1% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d9c06c11-b671-4813-a146-eb551ba86acf → 3dc9fba2-0ab4-46e9-88c5-3a6a26863cf4
US-TN · senate · nowcast · Marquita Bradshaw	1% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	1% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 94850aae-a151-4db4-9bdb-946cedda2c0d → 1cb76ff4-00ab-4ab9-a2e4-b7700ad20537
US-CA-9 · house · election_day · Josh Harder	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-LA-2 · house · election_day · Troy A. Carter Sr.	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NC-8 · house · election_day · Colby Watson	2% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	2% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-26 · house · election_day · Steven Shook	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-9 · house · election_day · Leticia Gutierrez	4% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	4% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-SC-5 · house · election_day · Mallory Dittmer	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-SD-AL · house · election_day · Nicole Gronli	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL-8 · house · election_day · Melissa Bean	99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-VA-1 · house · election_day · Shannon Taylor	52% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	56% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 52% → 56%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-15 · house · election_day · Bobby Pulido	50% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	49% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 50% → 49%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AL-2 · house · election_day · Shomari Figures	37% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	37% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MN-1 · house · election_day · Jake Johnson	26% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	26% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-KS-3 · house · election_day · Sharice Davids	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CT-2 · house · election_day · Joe Courtney	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NV-4 · house · election_day · Steven Horsford	99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-16 · house · election_day · George Latimer	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MD-3 · house · election_day · Sarah Elfreth	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-12 · house · election_day · Kimberly Overman	2% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	2% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IN-6 · house · election_day · Cynthia Wirth	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-PA-6 · house · election_day · Chrissy Houlahan	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MO-7 · house · election_day · Missi Hesketh	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WI-7 · house · election_day · Fred Clark	4% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	4% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MA-9 · house · election_day · Bill Keating	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-KY-3 · house · election_day · Morgan McGarvey	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-HI-1 · house · election_day · Ed Case	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-16 · house · election_day · Veronica Escobar	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MD-1 · house · election_day · Dan Schwartz	2% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	2% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-15 · house · election_day · Ritchie Torres	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NJ-5 · house · election_day · Josh Gottheimer	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-UT-3 · house · election_day · Kent Udell	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-20 · house · election_day · Debbie Wasserman Schultz	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-45 · house · election_day · Derek Tran	98% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	98% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-30 · house · election_day · Frederick Haynes III	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-25 · house · election_day · Joseph Morelle	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CT-5 · house · election_day · Jahana Hayes	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA-8 · house · election_day · Kelly Esti	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-27 · house · election_day · Tanya Lloyd	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CO-3 · house · election_day · Dwayne Romero	23% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	22% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 23% → 22%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IA-1 · house · election_day · Christina Bohannan	84% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	84% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-10 · house · election_day · Caitlin Rourk	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-13 · house · election_day · Leela Gray	26% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	26% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH-5 · house · election_day · Brian Shaver	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-VT-AL · house · election_day · Becca Balint	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MS-2 · house · election_day · Bennie Thompson	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-KS-1 · house · election_day · Lauren Reinhold	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-25 · house · election_day · Raul Ruiz	99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL-16 · house · election_day · Paul Nolley	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-50 · house · election_day · Scott Peters	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-17 · house · election_day · Matthew Montavon	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MI · senate · election_day · Abdul El-Sayed	70% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	68% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 70% → 68%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 70c6060c-f756-4033-91e5-de0735833246 → 4cc18be5-ae60-4825-8c17-d2f8811d2f0a
US-MI · senate · nowcast · Abdul El-Sayed	72% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	70% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 72% → 70%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers b5e29354-3e68-4a74-94d3-eeed9b74f287 → 803f32cf-7750-451d-889e-4f66614cea0d
US-CA-46 · house · election_day · Lou Correa	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA · governor · election_day · Keisha Lance Bottoms	57% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	58% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 57% → 58%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers db0855cf-d8bc-4af1-a641-5a6aaa48f2dc → 5d9ffae9-d082-472f-8285-4e9772107327
US-GA · governor · nowcast · Keisha Lance Bottoms	45% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	45% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 1db01f59-d49b-4de9-a862-9d07bff1c247 → 4a2333a1-3e18-4718-b553-da21abc43ef5
US-WY-AL · house · election_day · Lisa F. Kinney	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NH-2 · house · election_day · Maggie Goodlander	99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA-13 · house · election_day · Jasmine Clark	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CO-2 · house · election_day · Joe Neguse	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NJ-1 · house · election_day · Donald Norcross	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL-6 · house · election_day · Sean Casten	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MA · governor · election_day · Maura Healey	>99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	>99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 766b0dc8-273a-409d-a35d-1a2f6a887cf5 → 55a65c99-ad62-4002-9b15-d360593d28f5
US-MA · governor · nowcast · Maura Healey	>99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	>99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers a5d5d522-bb63-40ca-bc22-225f4297bae4 → 744bc50a-0f37-4f7e-ba6f-f5a280a508af
US-NV-3 · house · election_day · Susie Lee	98% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	98% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WA-9 · house · election_day · Adam Smith	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-10 · house · election_day · Mark DeSaulnier	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-KY · senate · election_day · Charles Booker	8% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	7% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 8% → 7%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers b0f8c633-d4bc-4c1e-b478-532160d6f1d0 → e99f42d2-18c2-496e-910a-aa67dfaa39a4
US-KY · senate · nowcast · Charles Booker	9% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	8% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 9% → 8%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 131758bb-ab57-41ed-82b4-0094df092554 → cc2072fa-75b6-49e4-81eb-2bfc03f6e5df
US-WI-8 · house · election_day · Rick Crosson	2% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	2% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WI · governor · election_day · David Crowley	74% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	74% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers bf277807-9bc8-461e-8262-1cee45440de8 → c5b1c58f-a616-464a-8489-dc2a475c2c6f
US-WI · governor · nowcast · David Crowley	77% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	77% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 8b76a5c6-5c02-45db-815c-59a4bd193d59 → 7a3cbe33-825e-4a10-8f28-38b3e330cd39
US-GA-4 · house · election_day · Hank Johnson	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY · governor · election_day · Kathy Hochul	98% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	98% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 612a5275-145c-48f0-ac5d-6cf3a9296ef1 → 43b6b55e-a29c-46e6-a833-1c44b833ee73
US-NY · governor · nowcast · Kathy Hochul	98% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	98% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers cb83e484-19d7-4d50-bc31-47616723a0f5 → e5250b89-0632-406c-bad8-3aa8d8293c1f
US-CO-6 · house · election_day · Jason Crow	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MI-1 · house · election_day · Callie Barr	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-PA-14 · house · election_day · Alan Bradstock	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-ME · governor · election_day · Hannah Pingree	97% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	98% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 97% → 98%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 27a73f2a-25cc-410a-964c-f3ef4484135b → 31d6977f-54ab-4c0a-a9e5-d1291a72d997
US-ME · governor · nowcast · Hannah Pingree	98% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	98% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 4531a4fc-f305-44f9-af71-85cee7e722ff → 3b530014-c17f-4af8-adc4-9655bbd2064e
US-CT-1 · house · election_day · Luke Bronin	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-24 · house · election_day · Salud Carbajal	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA-9 · house · election_day · Caitlyn Gegen	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OK-4 · house · election_day · Mitchell Jacob	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-OH-6 · house · election_day · Elizabeth Kirtley	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-31 · house · election_day · Justin Early	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WY · governor · election_day · Kenneth Casner	<1% 2026-10-23T10:37:40Z	<1% 2026-10-25T00:22:21Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 60b75f13-e302-483f-8469-8c1367739c05 → b4d6cb4b-db37-4eb5-9051-c893ca57e152
US-TX-3 · house · election_day · Evan Hunt	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CO-4 · house · election_day · Eileen Laubacher	6% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	6% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IN-9 · house · election_day · Brad Meyer	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-6 · house · election_day · Danny Minton	1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AZ-2 · house · election_day · Jonathan Nez	20% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	20% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-GA-7 · house · election_day · Anthony Kozycki	5% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	5% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-PA · governor · election_day · Josh Shapiro	>99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	>99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 9e108e3a-6952-4e87-aa81-fbeade8dc765 → a7eee312-8d13-4134-bbe2-b31b3788134b
US-PA · governor · nowcast · Josh Shapiro	>99% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	>99% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 163632c5-e2d6-4e86-bd3c-a4c16ae0715b → 5ef2dd21-df10-4df7-8219-56e2870ee874
US-NJ-10 · house · election_day · LaMonica McIver	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MD-4 · house · election_day · Glenn Ivey	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NJ-11 · house · election_day · Analilia Mejia	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IL-10 · house · election_day · Brad Schneider	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-IN-4 · house · election_day · Drew Cox	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WI-1 · house · election_day · Mitchell Berman	20% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	20% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-10 · house · election_day · Brad Lander	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-6 · house · election_day · Richard Pan	50% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	76% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Displayed 50% → 76%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-19 · house · election_day · Kyle Rable	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WV-2 · house · election_day · Ace Parsi	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TN-9 · house · election_day · Justin J. Pearson	6% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	6% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MI-11 · house · election_day · Jeremy Moss	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-FL-7 · house · election_day · Bale Dalton	68% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	68% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MN · governor · election_day · Amy Klobuchar	94% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	95% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Displayed 94% → 95%	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 43f1e59b-6108-4dce-9cde-06f00203cd69 → b28f67b0-d34e-4172-8bbe-0fa8fb0c7942
US-MN · governor · nowcast · Amy Klobuchar	95% 2026-10-23T11:41:39Z	95% 2026-10-25T00:04:33Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers b6335bf8-df1f-42f8-92f0-31605dbc4453 → 5abd4a8d-0863-4e2d-bf5e-f351a9e99982
US-IL-2 · house · election_day · Donna Miller	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-42 · house · election_day · Robert Garcia	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CA-8 · house · election_day · John Garamendi	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-TX-18 · house · election_day · Christian Menefee	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-MI-8 · house · election_day · Kristen McDonald Rivet	99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-11 · house · election_day · Michael DeCillis	<1% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	<1% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-WA-8 · house · election_day · Kim Schrier	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-AZ-8 · house · election_day · Bernadette Greene-Placentia	3% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	3% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-NY-26 · house · election_day · Tim Kennedy	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07
US-CT-4 · house · election_day · Jim Himes	>99% 2026-10-23T23:02:10Z	>99% 2026-10-24T21:31:24Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers a0ffdffb-2926-4a67-a069-aa0af8a948d8 → 20568f98-f691-4bbe-95ae-617672e75d07