Published forecasts: 2026-10-22
Last published snapshot for this Pacific day. These records were published at the time; no reconstructed forecasts are added.
Compared with the previous available closed day, 2026-10-21. Dates may be more than one day apart.
- 2026-10-21: race records · chamber records · file hashes
- 2026-10-22: race records · chamber records · file hashes
Chambers
Stored party-control bounds; unavailable values stay unavailable. The linked downloads retain model versions and run identifiers.
| Chamber / product | Earlier | Later |
|---|---|---|
| governors · election_day | D 69%–69%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | D 70%–70%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-22T15:43:56Z |
| governors · nowcast | D 67%–67%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | D 67%–67%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-22T15:43:56Z |
| house · election_day | D 80%–80%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | D 82%–82%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z |
| senate · election_day | D 53%–61%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | D 53%–62%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-22T11:03:09Z |
| senate · nowcast | D 61%–66%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | D 60%–66%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-22T11:03:09Z |
Races
Changes refer to the displayed, rounded percentages. Exact probabilities are in the downloads. Candidate changes are separate rows. A poll appearing between runs is not proof it caused a move. Poll arrivals, money and candidate events are not captured by these forecast files; the model and correction record provides other context.
| Race and subject | Earlier chance / run time | Later chance / run time | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-LA-6 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | 5% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-22 · house · election_day · Marquette Greene-Scott | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NC-4 · house · election_day · Valerie Foushee | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OR · senate · election_day · Jeff Merkley | 98% 2026-10-22T03:36:44Z | 98% 2026-10-22T11:02:19Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf847ee0f-056a-4784-963a-53890d0b1eea → 546672db-5258-424d-ad53-c87429461588 |
| US-VA · senate · election_day · Mark Warner | 98% 2026-10-21T08:52:55Z | 97% 2026-10-21T08:52:55Z | Displayed 98% → 97% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers951cb67f-b05f-4ec9-a057-f53b2c570f48 → beecd379-3d44-42d8-abf6-27032956599c |
| US-VA · senate · nowcast · Mark Warner | 98% 2026-10-21T08:52:55Z | 98% 2026-10-21T08:52:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersae01c647-7d15-4f64-aa49-e48094359583 → 23facab9-21e7-4d57-a617-4f21887f142e |
| US-OH-4 · house · election_day · Joshua Kolasinski | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WA-3 · house · election_day · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 45% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 43% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 45% → 43% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NC-14 · house · election_day · LaKesha Womack | 7% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 9% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 7% → 9% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OK-5 · house · election_day · Jena Nelson | 5% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 5% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MN-7 · house · election_day · Erik Osberg | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MT · senate · election_day · Seth Bodnar | 1% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 1% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierscdd9bc3b-a1fe-44a9-a21b-ed317ad2bff9 → 4120a8b6-d156-445f-b5a1-77efbb745080 |
| US-MT · senate · nowcast · Seth Bodnar | 1% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 1% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0c38adaf-489c-4791-938c-54e91f87c4d0 → 921a1f46-c510-43de-800b-750f2f5a0d0f |
| US-CA-20 · house · election_day · Sandra Van Scotter | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AL-5 · house · election_day · Andrew Sneed | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NC-1 · house · election_day · Don Davis | 81% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 83% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 81% → 83% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH-7 · house · election_day · Brian Poindexter | 70% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 86% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 70% → 86% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OK-2 · house · election_day · Brandon Wade | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NC-12 · house · election_day · Alma Adams | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TN · governor · election_day · Jerri Green | 1% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 1% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers895b8025-088a-4202-a9e3-e6fc5af75277 → ed8dfb59-bc41-4e97-8208-a61086eda4a8 |
| US-TN · governor · nowcast · Jerri Green | 1% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 1% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfeab2c38-e583-4b9d-b975-4863bd347b53 → acb44782-45db-4332-9d1e-87b57d880bf6 |
| US-ID-2 · house · election_day · Ellie Gilbreath | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AZ-4 · house · election_day · Greg Stanton | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NC-9 · house · election_day · Richard Ojeda | 12% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 12% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IA-2 · house · election_day · Lindsay James | 47% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 49% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 47% → 49% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-38 · house · election_day · Melissa McDonough | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-5 · house · election_day · Gregory Meeks | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AR-4 · house · election_day · James Russell | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL · senate · election_day · Angie Nixon | 12% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 12% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse7532b66-d3bc-4480-a321-e4639b9cf7c8 → 7e9a2c9f-cbc8-40ab-996c-93d1b39919bc |
| US-FL · senate · nowcast · Angie Nixon | 10% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 10% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers55ebdc82-d808-4ed3-b9d5-49ee185ea546 → 7d93ddd2-2b5b-4dbc-a07e-a7cecfdeaf27 |
| US-MN-5 · house · election_day · Ilhan Omar | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-28 · house · election_day · Henry Cuellar | 72% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 72% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NV-2 · house · election_day · Teresa Benitez-Thompson | 24% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 40% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 24% → 40% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-4 · house · election_day · Jason Pearce | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX · governor · election_day · Gina Hinojosa | 24% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 24% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb9d1b10c-02e5-4e96-84be-f60c69afb67b → 020fd7b9-3d69-4128-be7b-fb897d721ff9 |
| US-TX · governor · nowcast · Gina Hinojosa | 28% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 28% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa96d5a9d-a4e0-48f7-8af3-8acabcb91a1b → f8f32402-cae8-4c0f-9096-c957a97c6dbc |
| US-MA-8 · house · election_day · Stephen Lynch | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NC-13 · house · election_day · Paul Barringer | 3% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 3% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-7 · house · election_day · Claire Valdez | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-ND-AL · house · election_day · Trygve Hammer | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL-9 · house · election_day · Daniel Biss | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MI-2 · house · election_day · Benjamin Ambrose | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MD-6 · house · election_day · April McClain Delaney | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AL-7 · house · election_day · Terri Sewell | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-33 · house · election_day · Pete Aguilar | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-24 · house · election_day · Oliver Gilbert | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-VA-2 · house · election_day · Elaine Luria | 60% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 56% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 60% → 56% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-4 · house · election_day · LaShonda Holloway | 7% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 7% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MI-10 · house · election_day · Christina Hines | 46% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 44% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 46% → 44% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MN-2 · house · election_day · Matt Little | 87% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 89% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 87% → 89% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-8 · house · election_day · Jennifer Jenkins | 3% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 3% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-51 · house · election_day · Sara Jacobs | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-16 · house · election_day · Sam Liccardo | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OR-6 · house · election_day · Andrea Salinas | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-VA-10 · house · election_day · Suhas Subramanyam | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-28 · house · election_day · Judy Chu | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL-4 · house · election_day · Patty Garcia | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OR-3 · house · election_day · Maxine Dexter | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NM · governor · election_day · Deb Haaland | 91% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 91% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersaa1f2825-8b18-4ec6-bc36-7c169577247a → cf95b826-1928-4825-827a-1cae4c109712 |
| US-NM · governor · nowcast · Deb Haaland | 92% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 92% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersff514c80-d694-4615-bb1a-f88a2aa22859 → d3bd42f5-2972-492c-833b-1642fcc160c8 |
| US-TX-29 · house · election_day · Sylvia Garcia | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OR-5 · house · election_day · Janelle Bynum | 99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA-3 · house · election_day · Maura Keller | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-5 · house · election_day · Michael Masuda | 2% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-21 · house · election_day · Blake Gendebien | 25% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 26% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 25% → 26% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-15 · house · election_day · Kevin Mullin | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-27 · house · election_day · Eliott Rodriguez | 14% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 15% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 14% → 15% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MO-1 · house · election_day · Wesley Bell | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-KY-1 · house · election_day · John "Drew" Williams | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-SC-3 · house · election_day · Eunice Lehmacher | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA-14 · house · election_day · Shawn Harris | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-ID · senate · election_day · Todd Achilles | 3% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 3% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers134592c6-3e25-4aa3-85e8-f96e7490e3cd → 2fa4e987-72f9-4b13-a663-24189f0fc117 |
| US-ID · senate · nowcast · Todd Achilles | 2% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 2% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers269a3108-0697-4845-a16e-122a36294b67 → 224d93f2-0bb5-4f7c-b70b-52e762efd1a2 |
| US-TN-2 · house · election_day · Michaela Barnett | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CO-7 · house · election_day · Brittany Pettersen | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-PA-8 · house · election_day · Paige Cognetti | 44% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 47% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 44% → 47% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-KS-2 · house · election_day · Don Coover | 3% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 3% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-14 · house · election_day · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH · governor · election_day · Amy Acton | 71% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 71% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd8638e2d-48db-4485-b3a8-8e43eb7c4d97 → 721d6d59-bfc2-47af-a309-29792bc89e55 |
| US-OH · governor · nowcast · Amy Acton | 76% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 76% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers51b5b1e2-d10a-4308-9a49-16007bde9418 → 839f257f-2644-4d44-9658-c46fefdb4718 |
| US-AR · governor · election_day · Fredrick Love | 4% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 4% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6bcd93eb-f7fa-4420-8af9-ed5720779ccf → 6c7e7659-5a1b-497d-9a65-eb238085e33f |
| US-AR · governor · nowcast · Fredrick Love | 7% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 7% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers14381f67-9c28-4cda-b44e-be35efd133fc → 34cce3fc-8b60-4533-8b2d-f8f9812e0a9a |
| US-MO-6 · house · election_day · Josh Smead | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-KS · senate · election_day · Adam Hamilton | 36% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 37% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Displayed 36% → 37% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers37fcad1b-5cff-4378-95e0-c80738bde26d → cbe64703-f00c-48e5-b08b-05da71e95ce5 |
| US-KS · senate · nowcast · Adam Hamilton | 53% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 53% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9a102f99-1da3-4c4f-a948-13219bbbf49b → b31d5c5c-8408-4439-a86a-bb4600f72519 |
| US-ME · senate · election_day · Troy Jackson | 40% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 39% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Displayed 40% → 39% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers47c882d8-9ad7-4630-b177-4246d1a6ade5 → 91cdee12-bca3-418b-8567-ce109d198cee |
| US-ME · senate · nowcast · Troy Jackson | 66% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 67% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Displayed 66% → 67% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers31db95f7-0b89-4d69-8174-b97f2704e12a → 4d3efd90-767f-4155-822d-6a59dc582fcf |
| US-CA-13 · house · election_day · Adam Gray | 91% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 91% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-17 · house · election_day · Casey Shepard | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL-11 · house · election_day · Bill Foster | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-28 · house · election_day · Phil Ehr | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MO-5 · house · election_day · Emanuel Cleaver | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-22 · house · election_day · John Mannion | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MD · governor · election_day · Wes Moore | >99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | >99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6998ac85-8c29-432c-a7da-43e28713cb19 → 58167b0e-91f1-4763-ad4f-ecb8b7723e2a |
| US-MD · governor · nowcast · Wes Moore | >99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | >99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers4bb6ab59-a002-4d58-9d4e-c98942bd74a9 → 23eb51aa-bc46-4479-8a30-9bbbc50652b6 |
| US-CO-5 · house · election_day · Jessica Killin | 37% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 34% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 37% → 34% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-2 · house · election_day · Amanda Green | 5% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 5% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MA-3 · house · election_day · Lori Trahan | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH-3 · house · election_day · Joyce Beatty | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NH · governor · election_day · Cinde Warmington | 7% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 7% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers436c8d31-8fdb-4c24-9678-8ba54127c6fa → 48f91960-060a-44bf-ab3a-c8cb3e08a95f |
| US-NH · governor · nowcast · Cinde Warmington | 4% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 4% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers037976a8-5a80-47be-8944-da0e07ab651f → eb156ddb-dac2-49ea-9f31-f34d5d8e8e3d |
| US-NC-7 · house · election_day · Kimberly Hardy | 8% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 8% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WV · senate · election_day · Rachel Fetty Anderson | 1% 2026-10-22T03:36:44Z | 1% 2026-10-22T11:02:19Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6ad6a5b2-ed19-4cd8-a480-67802ae3463d → ee5a0b87-ac2c-41d9-981d-0e4512d0dd36 |
| US-OK · senate · election_day · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | 1% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 1% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers4da4972a-6329-4722-9e1b-61ea79b6f680 → 5814ac84-38c0-45a1-863f-928dd02047d5 |
| US-OK · senate · nowcast · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | <1% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | <1% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers73d993fa-dd82-41af-822f-5f9b9a3eaa2e → 1aa0d534-549a-4cea-8cbe-d51036133918 |
| US-CA-32 · house · election_day · Brad Sherman | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NE · senate · election_day · Dan Osborn | 48% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 48% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers4eb8987d-f42d-4f22-a6f7-3d5ae6e6dd08 → 0de9bf76-8313-4d9b-96df-dad449dd62d2 |
| US-NE · senate · nowcast · Dan Osborn | 48% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 48% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1abfa478-1c8d-4088-8633-ed97bb9c2995 → fd6a4000-601c-48b3-9b80-e258c19be627 |
| US-TN-1 · house · election_day · Kristi Burke | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-12 · house · election_day · Angela Rodriguez Prilliman | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MS-4 · house · election_day · Jeffrey Hulum III | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OK-1 · house · election_day · John Croisant | 2% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WA-2 · house · election_day · Rick Larsen | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-SC-7 · house · election_day · John Vincent | 2% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OK-3 · house · election_day · Suzie Byrd | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-ID · governor · election_day · Terri Pickens | <1% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | <1% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierscaffd95a-f26d-44af-986c-5729fe75932c → 540e0df6-c19e-4c02-8084-7386a625389e |
| US-ID · governor · nowcast · Terri Pickens | 1% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 1% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2c8abadb-2969-4e0c-9245-f21d92622c3d → e274a9e0-0370-444d-a756-c6b7b2f038f9 |
| US-TX-8 · house · election_day · Laura Jones | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA-1 · house · election_day · Amanda Hollowell | 6% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 6% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-UT-1 · house · election_day · Ben McAdams | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL · senate · election_day · Juliana Stratton | 96% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 96% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers602c37e8-0db0-4a56-a95d-f1a9076157b4 → 9802cb1f-9063-4ba6-abe9-c0135e53fbf8 |
| US-IL · senate · nowcast · Juliana Stratton | 95% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 95% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9355511f-6981-4ee7-aea6-4ca790d20846 → 523f8d65-9889-45c8-b037-9200280ec198 |
| US-ME-1 · house · election_day · Chellie Pingree | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-PA-2 · house · election_day · Brendan Boyle | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH · senate · election_day · Sherrod Brown | 74% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 74% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers17559228-80c2-4da2-9059-7021d7658e05 → 89434f9a-eff9-4bb0-8f8e-44f5592d2d6e |
| US-OH · senate · nowcast · Sherrod Brown | 79% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 79% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf67fcc58-8fed-4392-917d-275199e3c79f → ad62d324-60e9-4e00-9bec-8467396d879f |
| US-CA-23 · house · election_day · Tessa Lynn Hodge | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WA-7 · house · election_day · Pramila Jayapal | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MN-6 · house · election_day · Doug Chapin | 2% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-1 · house · election_day · Chris Gallant | 16% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 15% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 16% → 15% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AZ-7 · house · election_day · Adelita Grijalva | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CT-3 · house · election_day · Rosa DeLauro | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-PA-4 · house · election_day · Madeleine Dean | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-23 · house · election_day · Aaron Gies | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NJ-6 · house · election_day · Frank Pallone | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-2 · house · election_day · Shaun Finnie | 2% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-UT-2 · house · election_day · Peter Crosby | 5% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 5% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-KY-5 · house · election_day · Ned Pillersdorf | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-16 · house · election_day · Kelly Kirschner | 26% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 25% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 26% → 25% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL-5 · house · election_day · Mike Quigley | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MS-3 · house · election_day · Michael Chiaradio | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH-15 · house · election_day · Don Leonard | 29% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 36% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 29% → 36% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MA-4 · house · election_day · Jake Auchincloss | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-11 · house · election_day · James Pericola | 6% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 6% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-14 · house · election_day · Thurman Bartie | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-ME-2 · house · election_day · Matthew Dunlap | 31% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 30% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 31% → 30% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IA · governor · election_day · Rob Sand | 85% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 85% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersacdc5387-cacb-421a-8240-23ddff3fb729 → f9f8d8b2-042e-4dd4-b906-0c5c90ffc564 |
| US-IA · governor · nowcast · Rob Sand | 93% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 93% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6eb75039-b411-4dfe-9998-1eece9ab6692 → df180868-e3b0-433b-a0c4-f871bcf68074 |
| US-PA-10 · house · election_day · Janelle Stelson | 67% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 68% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 67% → 68% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-RI · governor · election_day · Helena Foulkes | 99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa6bd4110-8cb8-412c-8512-912b48ccc45b → fabf629e-bd76-4348-ad92-97cb250726ba |
| US-RI · governor · nowcast · Helena Foulkes | 99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers814d6f1b-63e7-448f-9b78-f5f43d00c7f9 → 0a2da597-5184-4714-a66e-e16d0f4ed423 |
| US-FL-6 · house · election_day · Eric Yonce | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CT · governor · election_day · Ned Lamont | 99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5d498f79-1a1e-4829-86ec-8c43a0a9bd8f → 56b4ed5e-76e4-477b-8ac0-deb846d15d7e |
| US-CT · governor · nowcast · Ned Lamont | >99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | >99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers48710cd6-dd22-45d6-9fa4-b8e464f4b4ba → b938e24a-a62c-4382-b551-22a9c5348d50 |
| US-AL · senate · election_day · Everett Wess | 2% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 2% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierscbaa9419-1f3c-443b-bece-cc0a65ebcf30 → 345b3b6c-748e-42ee-8e31-11fcd827b246 |
| US-AL · senate · nowcast · Everett Wess | 2% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 2% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse9d329c3-cc2f-4338-ba70-6fb0a20a8945 → 2746e0db-d0cf-4dca-9335-41050de91523 |
| US-FL-5 · house · election_day · Rachel Grage | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AL-4 · house · election_day · Amanda Pusczek | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MN · senate · election_day · Peggy Flanagan | 86% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 86% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers4eda5895-ce47-46fc-9007-49320c0d96b3 → b023cec7-363d-4d4c-a01e-37db3c5bacc8 |
| US-MN · senate · nowcast · Peggy Flanagan | 78% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 78% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers419e57cf-f92f-4e9a-9a52-0fea1275c77d → e910d76b-1e6b-4e0c-bb80-83e0519b02cd |
| US-TN-7 · house · election_day · Darden Copeland | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-15 · house · election_day · Robert People | 2% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-43 · house · election_day · Maxine Waters | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CO · governor · election_day · Phil Weiser | 95% 2026-10-22T03:36:44Z | 97% 2026-10-22T15:43:56Z | Displayed 95% → 97% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa5887dbb-11ac-4756-96a4-9a798bcd7709 → 9c8cc626-3439-4743-8975-5b8b31cbaa53 |
| US-WI-6 · house · election_day · Brad Smith | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MD-7 · house · election_day · Kweisi Mfume | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MN-3 · house · election_day · Kelly Morrison | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-32 · house · election_day · Dan Barrios | 5% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 5% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TN-4 · house · election_day · Victoria Broderick | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MD-2 · house · election_day · Johnny Olszewski | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TN-8 · house · election_day · Heidi Kuhn | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NE-3 · house · election_day · Becky Stille | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MS · senate · election_day · Scott Colom | 12% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 11% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Displayed 12% → 11% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers478e42ab-d14c-4b2c-911c-9a55e126d9ac → 75285516-9750-40cb-8f19-68782d80f63f |
| US-MS · senate · nowcast · Scott Colom | 19% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 19% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1410f66c-e6b5-4d83-9676-a4c4d7bcb622 → 90d05c13-1b19-4980-8f2b-33a39d46609e |
| US-NM-3 · house · election_day · Teresa Leger Fernández | 99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NJ-2 · house · election_day · Zack Mullock | 6% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 6% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-KY-2 · house · election_day · Megan Wingfield | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL-14 · house · election_day · Lauren Underwood | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-34 · house · election_day · Vicente Gonzalez | 60% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 63% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 60% → 63% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX · senate · election_day · James Talarico | 59% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 59% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6b8c1a4c-1eae-46bf-99b6-fd8b03d02eb7 → 23b0f382-7850-42fd-83cd-7528b513cd8b |
| US-TX · senate · nowcast · James Talarico | 70% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 70% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa76d6bb7-b454-489e-b52e-957b97787048 → 38b5ef19-faef-42f2-9e08-c332664a2189 |
| US-OH-13 · house · election_day · Emilia Sykes | 99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL · governor · election_day · David Jolly | 19% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 19% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersba5566e6-a4d3-4aad-8325-4a1d042b2b84 → 0ea0299e-2417-4f72-b74f-c32a3cc94768 |
| US-FL · governor · nowcast · David Jolly | 18% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 18% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2a628a68-ef36-4fe8-bc61-9d1ad0e7dd1c → 2a1bcdcd-501b-4129-af3f-e6642354fb17 |
| US-MI-13 · house · election_day · Donavan McKinney | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NJ-12 · house · election_day · Adam Hamawy | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-SC-6 · house · election_day · Jim Clyburn | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH-9 · house · election_day · Marcy Kaptur | 66% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 67% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 66% → 67% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WI-3 · house · election_day · Rebecca Cooke | 52% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 51% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 52% → 51% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NE-2 · house · election_day · Denise Powell | 90% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 89% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 90% → 89% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-VA-3 · house · election_day · Bobby Scott | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-VA-6 · house · election_day · Beth Macy | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-22 · house · election_day · Randy Villegas | 48% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 49% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 48% → 49% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH-8 · house · election_day · Vanessa Enoch | 5% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 5% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AZ · governor · election_day · Katie Hobbs | 93% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 93% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers225369d7-7798-4ebc-897d-cb2449265904 → 3345b6b2-e709-4934-ba76-1a9d94f7969c |
| US-AZ · governor · nowcast · Katie Hobbs | 93% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 93% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf5619d54-52f4-48d5-8671-4ef535af3885 → 3ec21244-d482-4742-92b0-ab191f6f91c9 |
| US-VT · governor · election_day · Amanda Janoo | 9% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 9% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3f391aa5-e683-401d-8ebd-204092af6ffe → 3fe7592d-2412-49c8-979a-84801e708b42 |
| US-VT · governor · nowcast · Amanda Janoo | 14% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 14% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers74f9774c-3adc-4919-ad29-c1f7b1567633 → c729dc3f-2e3f-43c7-8351-5214b5e087ba |
| US-MI-6 · house · election_day · Debbie Dingell | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MI-7 · house · election_day · William Lawrence | 49% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 47% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 49% → 47% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IN-3 · house · election_day · Kelly Thompson | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WA-5 · house · election_day · Carmela Conroy | 5% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 5% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-LA · senate · election_day · Jamie Davis | 5% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 4% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Displayed 5% → 4% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers417e9cf7-da9b-4276-a6d9-643750149855 → 5d9d3f38-c8c3-4d50-ad25-d4cf3db2b68a |
| US-LA · senate · nowcast · Jamie Davis | 9% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 9% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf8aae438-bf88-48a6-b4fb-5ddd6e96734f → d9fce762-6921-46e7-8a24-0d9e2e0a86a6 |
| US-NE · governor · election_day · Lynne Walz | 19% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 19% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers55b4c19b-d20c-42c6-a4cd-4d9b316828ac → 9c17000c-9e3b-466d-8539-44432bd9b416 |
| US-NE · governor · nowcast · Lynne Walz | 24% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 24% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf2ef444f-1090-4550-856a-c0a200d83903 → 8938701e-4621-4327-baeb-4b35f05b434d |
| US-TX-1 · house · election_day · Yolanda Prince | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-39 · house · election_day · Mark Takano | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-35 · house · election_day · Johnny Garcia | 48% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 44% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 48% → 44% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-PA-9 · house · election_day · Rachel Wallace | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NC-11 · house · election_day · Jamie Ager | 72% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 83% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 72% → 83% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MT-2 · house · election_day · Brian Miller | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NC-5 · house · election_day · Chuck Hubbard | 5% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 5% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MI-3 · house · election_day · Hillary Scholten | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA-11 · house · election_day · Chris Harden | 8% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 8% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-13 · house · election_day · Mark Nair | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-KS · governor · election_day · Cindy Holscher | 31% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 31% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3a755a73-f690-4766-929b-5f57f612c118 → 2fcfb29e-8570-433e-97ca-984ed85ecf9a |
| US-KS · governor · nowcast · Cindy Holscher | 26% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 26% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers4aa2dafc-6586-49aa-811f-a26701bca238 → 5b64b737-5f9d-4dac-81ce-db72e21b21d5 |
| US-AL-6 · house · election_day · Maurice Mercer | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NE-1 · house · election_day · Chris Backemeyer | 12% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 13% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 12% → 13% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WI-5 · house · election_day · Andrew Beck | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-HI · governor · election_day · Josh Green | 99% 2026-10-22T03:36:44Z | 99% 2026-10-22T11:02:19Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers39ec0c67-147f-4488-a658-9fa6436c19bf → a830f58c-f271-4500-8dad-526b1b60ca4f |
| US-FL-21 · house · election_day · James Martin | 2% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-25 · house · election_day · Dione Sims | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WA-4 · house · election_day · John Duresky | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-48 · house · election_day · Marni von Wilpert | 86% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 83% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 86% → 83% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-9 · house · election_day · Darren Soto | 46% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 43% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 46% → 43% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-2 · house · election_day · Patrick Halpin | 3% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 3% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-2 · house · election_day · Jared Huffman | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IN-8 · house · election_day · Mary Allen | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-RI-2 · house · election_day · Seth Magaziner | 99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH-1 · house · election_day · Greg Landsman | 90% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 87% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 90% → 87% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WY · senate · election_day · James W. Byrd | <1% 2026-10-22T03:36:44Z | <1% 2026-10-22T11:02:19Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf5975af4-c6d2-4bf5-8208-7308265f0b52 → eb8d4980-9b1f-4feb-bbe1-507a9d4eff43 |
| US-CA-18 · house · election_day · Zoe Lofgren | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-47 · house · election_day · Dave Min | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-UT-4 · house · election_day · Jonny Larsen | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL-13 · house · election_day · Nikki Budzinski | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NC · senate · election_day · Roy Cooper | 95% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 96% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Displayed 95% → 96% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfc97e715-3144-48fc-b73a-efb3a7bb1fe7 → 871e4964-3921-41c4-9016-3a5fb7e8dc70 |
| US-NC · senate · nowcast · Roy Cooper | 97% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 97% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2c3d543d-43f5-48f2-996b-58b537393eda → 9abe7489-9b2a-4598-b74d-2222a34ee090 |
| US-NV-1 · house · election_day · Dina Titus | 97% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 97% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-4 · house · election_day · Laura Gillen | 96% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 96% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NJ-4 · house · election_day · Rachel Peace | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OR · governor · election_day · Tina Kotek | 77% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 77% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersc347619b-62a9-4787-99d9-b147ff32b1d7 → a2701a50-8987-4b11-b75e-8dba349f9d42 |
| US-OR · governor · nowcast · Tina Kotek | 57% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 57% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersed4a5238-3f77-4282-bd3b-7e4f7006392a → d894b724-46d4-4d52-94a6-e362e3f41752 |
| US-SC · governor · election_day · Jermaine Johnson | 16% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 16% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers8e7cf485-4dab-402b-adef-9fa40f3b2906 → 7bb0a48d-a660-496c-b8ea-bb14ba44b700 |
| US-SC · governor · nowcast · Jermaine Johnson | 11% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 11% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf5974a14-3a9d-42d9-8a86-cb9dcf60415c → 0990db9a-4d6a-4050-ac75-cb71c485f436 |
| US-AZ-3 · house · election_day · Yassamin Ansari | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | Not in this snapshot Unavailable | Not comparable | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → Unavailable |
| US-MN-8 · house · election_day · Trina Swanson | 3% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 3% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA-6 · house · election_day · Lucy McBath | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-SD · senate · election_day · Brian Bengs | 15% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 15% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers7cad3ae7-f94b-470a-98f9-f2122588ec16 → f178d703-a0cd-477f-bb59-f9e71cc9ec86 |
| US-SD · senate · nowcast · Brian Bengs | 13% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 13% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierscfb67aaf-2a97-4bdd-85fe-be0a1443feda → 24770f90-d75f-4f22-8ab1-3eebdb6fa70a |
| US-ID-1 · house · election_day · Kaylee Peterson | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH-2 · house · election_day · Jennifer Mazzuckelli | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-1 · house · election_day · Gay Valimont | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-31 · house · election_day · Gil Cisneros | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-HI-2 · house · election_day · Jill Tokuda | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-VA-8 · house · election_day · Don Beyer | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CO-1 · house · election_day · Melat Kiros | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-PA-11 · house · election_day · Nancy Mannion | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AR · senate · election_day · Hallie Shoffner | 3% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 2% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Displayed 3% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersdb2b7dd0-c134-4545-a36b-296dcbcbb8ca → e774dac5-e8cd-4073-bcfc-1ece607781ac |
| US-AR · senate · nowcast · Hallie Shoffner | 4% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 4% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers76791050-d6d8-463b-9188-1e270f51dd3e → 7ae531f0-ab69-4e3e-9382-51db918a36a5 |
| US-PA-15 · house · election_day · Ray Bilger | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AZ-5 · house · election_day · Elizabeth Lee | 4% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 4% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NC-2 · house · election_day · Deborah Ross | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MN-4 · house · election_day · Betty McCollum | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-3 · house · election_day · Ami Bera | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NC-6 · house · election_day · Cyril Jefferson | 4% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 4% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IA-3 · house · election_day · Sarah Trone Garriott | 51% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 52% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 51% → 52% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-DE-AL · house · election_day · Sarah McBride | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OR-4 · house · election_day · Val Hoyle | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-PA-17 · house · election_day · Chris Deluzio | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA-5 · house · election_day · Nikema Williams | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NM-1 · house · election_day · Melanie Stansbury | 99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-41 · house · election_day · Linda Sánchez | 99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-38 · house · election_day · Hilda Solis | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-14 · house · election_day · Kathy Castor | 90% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 84% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 90% → 84% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MD-8 · house · election_day · Jamie Raskin | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH-14 · house · election_day · Maria Jukic | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-12 · house · election_day · Micah Lasher | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-21 · house · election_day · Jim Costa | 97% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 97% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NJ-9 · house · election_day · Nellie Pou | 98% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 98% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AL-1 · house · election_day · Clyde Jones | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-18 · house · election_day · Pat Ryan | 99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-PA-1 · house · election_day · Bob Harvie | 28% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 28% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-6 · house · election_day · Grace Meng | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA · governor · election_day · Xavier Becerra | >99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | >99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse5d5097d-1154-43dc-ac45-51c8c757df57 → 548d13dd-3c6e-4eed-b3e5-b774c0c4da91 |
| US-CA · governor · nowcast · Xavier Becerra | >99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | >99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6d2323ed-8174-4cce-800c-f72ea4eeb858 → 608a2949-37ec-4cd8-a8df-25b9573031e5 |
| US-WI-4 · house · election_day · Gwen Moore | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AL · governor · election_day · Doug Jones | 2% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 2% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers4bb0d7bd-5a0f-4e73-af1b-f452a940b9a9 → da007566-8b00-46e2-9247-fc3b60e4b268 |
| US-AL · governor · nowcast · Doug Jones | 2% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 2% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers18855656-2e4b-4ba8-b5da-28602a8267de → 33769a0a-3c6d-47cc-ad7d-3dd0ba766286 |
| US-FL-25 · house · election_day · Jared Moskowitz | 90% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 82% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 90% → 82% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-24 · house · election_day · Kevin Burge | 4% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 4% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL-3 · house · election_day · Delia Ramirez | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA-10 · house · election_day · Pamela DeLancy | 3% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 3% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-26 · house · election_day · Nicole Locklin | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MO-4 · house · election_day · Jordan Herrera | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-PA-7 · house · election_day · Bob Brooks | 70% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 68% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 70% → 68% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-VA-7 · house · election_day · Eugene Vindman | 97% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 97% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL-12 · house · election_day · Julie Fortier | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OK · governor · election_day · Cyndi Munson | 17% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 18% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Displayed 17% → 18% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2e0ba4e7-b576-453e-a7e8-9c97240bbd8c → 59c49001-541e-4ca5-8336-01f204a0b8c8 |
| US-OK · governor · nowcast · Cyndi Munson | 28% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 28% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3d9fe409-da2a-420f-b271-f27141965d9a → 7e8137e1-402f-4ac1-936c-e2cd436a681e |
| US-TN-3 · house · election_day · Anna Golladay | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MI · governor · election_day · Jocelyn Benson | 92% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 92% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0867e0f1-f8cc-4a82-9083-93ef5ae2d5d6 → dbf82660-3b6f-4336-93e0-1dcdb3df6e49 |
| US-MI · governor · nowcast · Jocelyn Benson | 93% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 93% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1d798d38-3c40-4b70-aacb-3f46a74590d8 → 1810b836-dc69-4e0a-b32a-3d7784a83bee |
| US-MA · senate · election_day · Ed Markey | >99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | >99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers877ef1ba-4d85-4a58-8d26-6e14b757eb95 → 5db59cc3-a49a-43be-ac3f-8d67f8b36d8e |
| US-MA · senate · nowcast · Ed Markey | >99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | >99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1a14ee8d-bbeb-404e-9543-1ef96d689a3a → 27681ed4-06bb-41ce-849e-562dc3185e3d |
| US-IL-7 · house · election_day · La Shawn Ford | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH-11 · house · election_day · Shontel Brown | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-VA-5 · house · election_day · Tom Perriello | 18% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 17% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 18% → 17% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL-1 · house · election_day · Jonathan Jackson | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AR-2 · house · election_day · Chris Jones | 28% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 26% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 28% → 26% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-23 · house · election_day · Lois Frankel | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AK · governor · election_day · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 89% 2026-10-22T03:36:47Z | 89% 2026-10-22T11:02:21Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiers44141c62-f3e0-4ed0-8dc9-94e6a728a10b → 77a6dd70-d3f4-48a1-a376-a4f89b954952 |
| US-AK · governor · nowcast · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 90% 2026-10-22T03:36:47Z | 90% 2026-10-22T11:02:21Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Cause not established by these snapshotsRun identifiersad182f9b-d5d9-4abb-9511-16f22c5abe43 → 5ff12053-f7d8-43b5-985b-40e974a4103f |
| US-MI-5 · house · election_day · Christian Vukasovich | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NH-1 · house · election_day · Stefany Shaheen | 90% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 87% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 90% → 87% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-VA-11 · house · election_day · James Walkinshaw | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-22 · house · election_day · Pia Dandiya | 49% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 46% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 49% → 46% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-18 · house · election_day · Curtis Gibson | 2% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AK-AL · house · election_day · Bill Hill | 36% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 36% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-1 · house · election_day · Mike McGuire | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-RI-1 · house · election_day · Gabe Amo | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MO-8 · house · election_day · Christopher Riechard | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NJ · senate · election_day · Cory Booker | 93% 2026-10-22T03:36:44Z | 94% 2026-10-22T11:02:19Z | Displayed 93% → 94% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers718014d8-67cf-440a-9866-65060c77a77a → 8f18cd34-e0c2-41db-8e33-3ba49f63ca67 |
| US-PA-12 · house · election_day · Summer Lee | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-KY-4 · house · election_day · Melissa Claire Strange | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-3 · house · election_day · Tom Suozzi | 93% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 93% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IN-7 · house · election_day · André Carson | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IA · senate · election_day · Josh Turek | 50% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 51% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Displayed 50% → 51% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3f1c17be-fe34-4efa-b9cd-4aee15b3efe9 → 2ac38b7f-8985-45f1-8f84-a2cf45ba5519 |
| US-IA · senate · nowcast · Josh Turek | 55% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 55% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa954a849-9164-4af0-af67-3c6bfbf923bb → 09d182a6-c0bd-4266-b807-cecf76ec5c72 |
| US-NY-13 · house · election_day · Darializa Avila Chevalier | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-36 · house · election_day · Rhonda Hart | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-23 · house · election_day · Katy Padilla Stout | 16% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 19% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 16% → 19% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-7 · house · election_day · Lizzie Fletcher | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IA-4 · house · election_day · Dave Dawson | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CO · senate · election_day · John Hickenlooper | 98% 2026-10-22T03:36:44Z | 98% 2026-10-22T11:02:19Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1b7f6bd4-0e6b-41b9-ac14-2e54e41d7738 → 7c919c9d-969e-4694-aaae-026ef1794e96 |
| US-AL-3 · house · election_day · Lee McInnis | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-36 · house · election_day · Ted Lieu | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MT-1 · house · election_day · Sam Forstag | 33% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 37% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 33% → 37% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MD-5 · house · election_day · Adrian Boafo | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-19 · house · election_day · Jimmy Panetta | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-33 · house · election_day · Colin Allred | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-20 · house · election_day · Paul Tonko | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA-2 · house · election_day · Sanford Bishop | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NC-3 · house · election_day · Raymond Smith Jr. | 20% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 19% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 20% → 19% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-52 · house · election_day · Juan Vargas | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OR-2 · house · election_day · Chris Beck | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OR-1 · house · election_day · Suzanne Bonamici | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NM · senate · election_day · Ben Ray Luján | 94% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 94% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers7ecc566b-26ee-4705-a2d7-098987fa3008 → 31336d0c-c1a6-4b13-bede-e3853f2b40d0 |
| US-NM · senate · nowcast · Ben Ray Luján | 93% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 93% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfe9b3a5b-6651-47df-8e79-0836be64636d → cbba6775-7627-49cf-bcab-38408dc81035 |
| US-NC-10 · house · election_day · Ashley Bell | 2% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 3% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 2% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH-12 · house · election_day · Jerrad Christian | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MO-2 · house · election_day · Fred Wellman | 33% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 42% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 33% → 42% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-PA-16 · house · election_day · Justin Wagner | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-26 · house · election_day · Jacqui Irwin | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WA-10 · house · election_day · Marilyn Strickland | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-KS-4 · house · election_day · Katy Tyndell | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CO-8 · house · election_day · Manny Rutinel | 54% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 59% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 54% → 59% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MI-4 · house · election_day · Sean McCann | 33% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 33% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-30 · house · election_day · Laura Friedman | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-5 · house · election_day · Chelsey Hockett | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MO-3 · house · election_day · Bethany Mann | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-SD · governor · election_day · Dan Ahlers | 2% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 2% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0cd1bb54-b3ce-44c2-95fc-c36b6b895b22 → 4f9ecb9f-16ab-4e64-8363-16ceabad8d3d |
| US-SD · governor · nowcast · Dan Ahlers | 4% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 4% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1d410ded-a5e1-4754-8157-bc4fa9a3b668 → 6cb7fb26-0e80-4f7d-a5d6-f057da845331 |
| US-AR-3 · house · election_day · Robb Ryerse | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-17 · house · election_day · Ro Khanna | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MI-9 · house · election_day · Ray Pooley | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-11 · house · election_day · Claire Reynolds | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-SC · senate · election_day · Annie Andrews | 20% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 20% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf31cd1b2-8b7d-462f-a40b-179f711ba20e → 0e066a0d-9298-4d1a-8aa3-a9b1dc55bd8c |
| US-SC · senate · nowcast · Annie Andrews | 27% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 27% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers638d0a4a-2940-4fcc-84b8-3f66c2ac5c4d → 872a7c2f-7956-460e-8351-be8a6bacd1b4 |
| US-IL-15 · house · election_day · Jennifer Todd | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-9 · house · election_day · Yvette Clarke | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA · senate · election_day · Jon Ossoff | 93% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 93% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers93c351ee-ea66-4f39-adf7-6fc6ba67c835 → bf557c1e-6e3b-4352-aac7-d0e42d3dd0be |
| US-GA · senate · nowcast · Jon Ossoff | 94% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 93% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Displayed 94% → 93% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa23852ca-f2fc-4272-aa86-2a87d0e497ee → 7cbbaacf-11af-4e6a-93cc-587741a1c5bf |
| US-NY-19 · house · election_day · Josh Riley | 98% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 98% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-VA-4 · house · election_day · Jennifer McClellan | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MS-1 · house · election_day · Cliff Johnson | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-DE · senate · election_day · Chris Coons | 99% 2026-10-22T03:36:44Z | 99% 2026-10-22T11:02:19Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2e7d248d-9c72-4eb0-861c-d7304d548bdb → 2dc5a208-7ac3-48b8-8753-806cea3e231e |
| US-IL · governor · election_day · JB Pritzker | 97% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 97% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersbde3ac66-d9d1-465e-8e99-87dba7f666d4 → 970a46d8-d230-4c0e-9672-bf51297a249c |
| US-IL · governor · nowcast · JB Pritzker | 98% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 98% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1e6a27e6-fb55-4e93-b830-e4433b2ff0c3 → 11cc19cf-f120-483b-a442-b3b7a174d497 |
| US-WA-6 · house · election_day · Emily Randall | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-19 · house · election_day · Victor Arias | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-SC-1 · house · election_day · Nancy Lacore | 28% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 30% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 28% → 30% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH-10 · house · election_day · Kristina Knickerbocker | 8% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 8% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-3 · house · election_day · Seth Harp | 2% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-RI · senate · election_day · Jack Reed | >99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | >99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb1947598-a992-49b7-8f3c-04895a1bfa5d → 8bef0e27-0da2-422d-a15c-c51aa95ff431 |
| US-RI · senate · nowcast · Jack Reed | >99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | >99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse6b78469-d7ec-4a88-884e-d618da78f011 → 28dc4704-8fa7-4a17-9dc2-f254beaebb88 |
| US-CA-44 · house · election_day · Nanette Barragán | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NH · senate · election_day · Chris Pappas | 88% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 88% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers8c1248cb-255a-4713-897b-d8660f7161c3 → 87ec1afa-a1b5-4795-b0b4-54742b7ed3d8 |
| US-NH · senate · nowcast · Chris Pappas | 86% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 86% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse40ec3a1-e684-4383-8fc5-915ec5e7a4bd → 029db657-994b-49ac-8c2d-081ca5a49a02 |
| US-AZ-9 · house · election_day · Danielle Sterbinsky | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-17 · house · election_day · Cait Conley | 48% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 51% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 48% → 51% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-21 · house · election_day · Kristin Hook | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MA-6 · house · election_day · Dan Koh | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL-17 · house · election_day · Eric Sorensen | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NM-2 · house · election_day · Gabe Vasquez | 78% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 77% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 78% → 77% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-VA-9 · house · election_day · Joy Powers | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IN-1 · house · election_day · Frank Mrvan | 98% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 98% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-8 · house · election_day · Hakeem Jeffries | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AR-1 · house · election_day · Terri Yarbrough | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-KY-6 · house · election_day · Zach Dembo | 49% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 57% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 49% → 57% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MI-12 · house · election_day · Rashida Tlaib | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TN-6 · house · election_day · Mike Croley | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-PA-5 · house · election_day · Mary Gay Scanlon | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NV · governor · election_day · Aaron Ford | 37% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 37% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd05c16b4-2981-4b68-b29d-44ed5e3011f8 → 9ed4a530-ed8c-44b9-b92c-225aecaf83b4 |
| US-NV · governor · nowcast · Aaron Ford | 29% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 29% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersed5a7ad6-e3b5-46e6-993b-f609be8efd1c → a645aae0-d7d9-4408-b68a-39c451e10e46 |
| US-SC-4 · house · election_day · Courtney McClain | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IN-5 · house · election_day · J.D. Ford | 14% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 17% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 14% → 17% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-35 · house · election_day · Norma Torres | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-24 · house · election_day · Alissa Ellman | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AZ-1 · house · election_day · Amish Shah | 70% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 67% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 70% → 67% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WV-1 · house · election_day · Vince George | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NJ-3 · house · election_day · Herb Conaway | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IN-2 · house · election_day · Jamee Decio | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-27 · house · election_day · George Whitesides | 99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-37 · house · election_day · Greg Casar | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-49 · house · election_day · Mike Levin | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TN-5 · house · election_day · Chaz Molder | 13% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 12% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 13% → 12% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA-12 · house · election_day · Ceretta Smith | 3% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 4% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 3% → 4% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AZ-6 · house · election_day · JoAnna Mendoza | 59% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 59% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-SC-2 · house · election_day · Zyon Khalifa | 6% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 6% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-20 · house · election_day · Joaquin Castro | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WA-1 · house · election_day · Suzan DelBene | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-PA-13 · house · election_day · Beth Farnham | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AK · senate · election_day · Mary Peltola | 47% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 47% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3895b135-329e-4552-a2f7-98260e1260e3 → d345b5b5-457e-4b60-808a-2c90d9d0fa64 |
| US-AK · senate · nowcast · Mary Peltola | 69% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 69% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa35db812-d330-4300-80c4-b2effae66f9c → 2ca93cce-cf79-45ef-8ff5-78ad4fc42eff |
| US-NJ-7 · house · election_day · Rebecca Bennett | 71% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 70% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 71% → 70% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TN · senate · election_day · Marquita Bradshaw | 1% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 1% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers7a13c1fc-f353-451f-933a-9d75084e3f16 → 8a0bffed-3034-44b5-9992-ed60e9bd1b36 |
| US-TN · senate · nowcast · Marquita Bradshaw | 1% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 1% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9ff4b0f6-e70d-4a67-8fd8-02c1125ee476 → e3a459fb-f3f9-455d-a13c-52c990497a9e |
| US-CA-9 · house · election_day · Josh Harder | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-LA-2 · house · election_day · Troy A. Carter Sr. | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NC-8 · house · election_day · Colby Watson | 3% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 3% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-26 · house · election_day · Steven Shook | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-9 · house · election_day · Leticia Gutierrez | 5% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 6% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 5% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-SC-5 · house · election_day · Mallory Dittmer | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-SD-AL · house · election_day · Nicole Gronli | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL-8 · house · election_day · Melissa Bean | 99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-VA-1 · house · election_day · Shannon Taylor | 44% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 49% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 44% → 49% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-15 · house · election_day · Bobby Pulido | 43% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 46% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 43% → 46% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AL-2 · house · election_day · Shomari Figures | 40% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 37% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 40% → 37% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MN-1 · house · election_day · Jake Johnson | 23% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 28% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 23% → 28% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-KS-3 · house · election_day · Sharice Davids | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CT-2 · house · election_day · Joe Courtney | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NV-4 · house · election_day · Steven Horsford | 99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-16 · house · election_day · George Latimer | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MD-3 · house · election_day · Sarah Elfreth | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-12 · house · election_day · Kimberly Overman | 2% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IN-6 · house · election_day · Cynthia Wirth | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-PA-6 · house · election_day · Chrissy Houlahan | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MO-7 · house · election_day · Missi Hesketh | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WI-7 · house · election_day · Fred Clark | 2% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MA-9 · house · election_day · Bill Keating | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-KY-3 · house · election_day · Morgan McGarvey | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-HI-1 · house · election_day · Ed Case | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-16 · house · election_day · Veronica Escobar | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MD-1 · house · election_day · Dan Schwartz | 2% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-15 · house · election_day · Ritchie Torres | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NJ-5 · house · election_day · Josh Gottheimer | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-UT-3 · house · election_day · Kent Udell | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-20 · house · election_day · Debbie Wasserman Schultz | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-45 · house · election_day · Derek Tran | 97% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 97% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-30 · house · election_day · Frederick Haynes III | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-25 · house · election_day · Joseph Morelle | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CT-5 · house · election_day · Jahana Hayes | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA-8 · house · election_day · Kelly Esti | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-27 · house · election_day · Tanya Lloyd | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CO-3 · house · election_day · Dwayne Romero | 25% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 24% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 25% → 24% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IA-1 · house · election_day · Christina Bohannan | 68% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 82% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 68% → 82% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-10 · house · election_day · Caitlin Rourk | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-13 · house · election_day · Leela Gray | 22% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 27% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 22% → 27% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH-5 · house · election_day · Brian Shaver | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-VT-AL · house · election_day · Becca Balint | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MS-2 · house · election_day · Bennie Thompson | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-KS-1 · house · election_day · Lauren Reinhold | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-25 · house · election_day · Raul Ruiz | 99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL-16 · house · election_day · Paul Nolley | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-50 · house · election_day · Scott Peters | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-17 · house · election_day · Matthew Montavon | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MI · senate · election_day · Abdul El-Sayed | 68% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 69% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Displayed 68% → 69% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5d984ff1-3f76-4201-ac2d-a62d1139855d → b0fef408-265d-4189-b8d5-81ce028eb02a |
| US-MI · senate · nowcast · Abdul El-Sayed | 72% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 71% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Displayed 72% → 71% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersc69e46ca-3922-4ae0-ae0f-5001d9f67a23 → cd1a5b26-b56f-4e40-8d49-e4230d6c6df1 |
| US-CA-46 · house · election_day · Lou Correa | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA · governor · election_day · Keisha Lance Bottoms | 56% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 57% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Displayed 56% → 57% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers431c2e93-5487-4927-975a-93601ad66e50 → 1b246d2c-2655-4b6d-b519-a47efdba39a0 |
| US-GA · governor · nowcast · Keisha Lance Bottoms | 45% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 45% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers43d309fb-237d-4947-b8f3-030b5a8cfa21 → 9f23b545-55f2-433d-9c4c-8d495ae907b8 |
| US-WY-AL · house · election_day · Lisa F. Kinney | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NH-2 · house · election_day · Maggie Goodlander | 99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA-13 · house · election_day · Jasmine Clark | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CO-2 · house · election_day · Joe Neguse | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NJ-1 · house · election_day · Donald Norcross | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL-6 · house · election_day · Sean Casten | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MA · governor · election_day · Maura Healey | >99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | >99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers531681a3-bd78-484c-96b2-889e8323ac6d → 843a6362-aab1-4e9c-95e0-52637f8df63b |
| US-MA · governor · nowcast · Maura Healey | >99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | >99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers7d770a78-7348-4c37-a0dd-1fb91bd1c884 → a8a6500e-b683-4128-9f61-a134a56818bf |
| US-NV-3 · house · election_day · Susie Lee | 95% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 95% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WA-9 · house · election_day · Adam Smith | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-10 · house · election_day · Mark DeSaulnier | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-KY · senate · election_day · Charles Booker | 7% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 7% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersbfb6e351-dc6c-4249-a6e5-be673a16680a → 012fd423-4505-411c-8533-2413613eb9d9 |
| US-KY · senate · nowcast · Charles Booker | 9% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 9% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers30a62c00-dc42-4b75-8010-24bdc1a0551a → 931181f6-84b8-4c44-8a47-e6dbca72a734 |
| US-WI-8 · house · election_day · Rick Crosson | 4% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 4% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WI · governor · election_day · David Crowley | 73% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 73% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9639d863-769e-40a5-a976-c1a9ddadfb4b → a5f0a35e-7992-4951-ba31-988d67832e6f |
| US-WI · governor · nowcast · David Crowley | 78% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 78% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers753636bd-2674-4592-b359-6ab149ffc93b → 2c432e8d-ad79-4b76-b5b5-253efc0a1fe7 |
| US-GA-4 · house · election_day · Hank Johnson | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY · governor · election_day · Kathy Hochul | 98% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 98% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers26537077-27ae-4df9-8e6b-6d3a679c8023 → fcd4cf0f-30a3-4f24-b16f-4c521f77bc7e |
| US-NY · governor · nowcast · Kathy Hochul | 98% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 98% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd73d5e57-709c-41aa-86d9-24004b88de7c → 89f3481e-96e3-40fa-865c-1e35fe265314 |
| US-CO-6 · house · election_day · Jason Crow | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MI-1 · house · election_day · Callie Barr | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-PA-14 · house · election_day · Alan Bradstock | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-ME · governor · election_day · Hannah Pingree | 97% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 97% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers58a8411b-bc42-498d-9bea-28189edae6a0 → d323cb0c-7b8e-4fd3-a8dd-5cea730b8a2a |
| US-ME · governor · nowcast · Hannah Pingree | 98% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 98% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers64826d02-f67f-49f7-a5dc-7f59d2e22c50 → 2b51e9fd-129a-4e3c-af20-34dab0a6bf5a |
| US-CT-1 · house · election_day · Luke Bronin | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-24 · house · election_day · Salud Carbajal | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA-9 · house · election_day · Caitlyn Gegan | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OK-4 · house · election_day · Mitchell Jacob | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-OH-6 · house · election_day · Elizabeth Kirtley | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-31 · house · election_day · Justin Early | 2% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 2% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WY · governor · election_day · Kenneth Casner | <1% 2026-10-22T03:36:44Z | <1% 2026-10-22T11:02:19Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersc3c70f12-cb0a-464f-9e0f-204d2e91f20b → 71e53956-1381-4c7e-ae7f-c5835c5da063 |
| US-TX-3 · house · election_day · Evan Hunt | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CO-4 · house · election_day · Eileen Laubacher | 6% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 6% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IN-9 · house · election_day · Brad Meyer | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-6 · house · election_day · Danny Minton | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AZ-2 · house · election_day · Jonathan Nez | 13% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 22% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 13% → 22% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-GA-7 · house · election_day · Anthony Kozycki | 5% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 7% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 5% → 7% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-PA · governor · election_day · Josh Shapiro | >99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | >99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers8bbeadbb-f8ad-4015-a76a-23d909ca05a0 → fd2428bd-106f-469e-b788-43740afbe88d |
| US-PA · governor · nowcast · Josh Shapiro | >99% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | >99% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfcf1fe22-c114-4404-9077-adb6e53b9de4 → 6dea6efa-c33f-437c-a56b-a04091da38e7 |
| US-NJ-10 · house · election_day · LaMonica McIver | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MD-4 · house · election_day · Glenn Ivey | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NJ-11 · house · election_day · Analilia Mejia | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IL-10 · house · election_day · Brad Schneider | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-IN-4 · house · election_day · Drew Cox | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WI-1 · house · election_day · Mitchell Berman | 20% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 22% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 20% → 22% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-10 · house · election_day · Brad Lander | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-6 · house · election_day · Richard Pan | 50% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 50% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-19 · house · election_day · Kyle Rable | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WV-2 · house · election_day · Ace Parsi | <1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | <1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TN-9 · house · election_day · Justin J. Pearson | 8% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 8% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MI-11 · house · election_day · Jeremy Moss | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-FL-7 · house · election_day · Bale Dalton | 46% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 65% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Displayed 46% → 65% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MN · governor · election_day · Amy Klobuchar | 95% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 94% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Displayed 95% → 94% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse2e39f2c-e6b8-4eaf-aa5a-90ef68586388 → 5dc81488-9e41-4df2-ad08-ec5221ec8546 |
| US-MN · governor · nowcast · Amy Klobuchar | 95% 2026-10-22T03:20:57Z | 95% 2026-10-22T09:42:48Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers7c489bf6-b569-49a7-9a6b-d30dab500929 → 56d87762-c813-475c-80ce-9f81ce22e745 |
| US-IL-2 · house · election_day · Donna Miller | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-42 · house · election_day · Robert Garcia | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CA-8 · house · election_day · John Garamendi | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-TX-18 · house · election_day · Christian Menefee | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-MI-8 · house · election_day · Kristen McDonald Rivet | 98% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 98% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-11 · house · election_day · Michael DeCillis | 1% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 1% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-WA-8 · house · election_day · Kim Schrier | 99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-AZ-8 · house · election_day · Bernadette Greene-Placentia | 3% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | 3% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-NY-26 · house · election_day · Tim Kennedy | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |
| US-CT-4 · house · election_day · Jim Himes | >99% 2026-10-22T04:20:59Z | >99% 2026-10-23T05:38:43Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers113bf329-a737-4563-8486-4c8e285f6f10 → 807bec31-65b8-4368-bda8-988b6fa45828 |