Published forecast history

Published forecasts: 2026-10-21

Last published snapshot for this Pacific day. These records were published at the time; no reconstructed forecasts are added.

Compared with the previous available closed day, 2026-10-20. Dates may be more than one day apart.

• 2026-10-20: race records · chamber records · file hashes
• 2026-10-21: race records · chamber records · file hashes

Chambers

Stored party-control bounds; unavailable values stay unavailable. The linked downloads retain model versions and run identifiers.

Races

Changes refer to the displayed, rounded percentages. Exact probabilities are in the downloads. Candidate changes are separate rows. A poll appearing between runs is not proof it caused a move. Poll arrivals, money and candidate events are not captured by these forecast files; the model and correction record provides other context.