Published forecasts: 2026-10-12
Last published snapshot for this Pacific day. These records were published at the time; no reconstructed forecasts are added.
Compared with the previous available closed day, 2026-10-11. Dates may be more than one day apart.
- 2026-10-11: race records · chamber records · file hashes
- 2026-10-12: race records · chamber records · file hashes
Chambers
Stored party-control bounds; unavailable values stay unavailable. The linked downloads retain model versions and run identifiers.
| Chamber / product | Earlier | Later |
|---|---|---|
| governors · election_day | D 56%–56%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | D 70%–70%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-12T19:58:09Z |
| governors · nowcast | D 49%–49%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | D 67%–67%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-12T19:58:09Z |
| house · election_day | D 89%–89%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | D 83%–83%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z |
| senate · election_day | D 37%–45%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | D 54%–64%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-12T19:57:15Z |
| senate · nowcast | D 43%–50%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | D 61%–67%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-12T19:57:15Z |
Races
Changes refer to the displayed, rounded percentages. Exact probabilities are in the downloads. Candidate changes are separate rows. A poll appearing between runs is not proof it caused a move. Poll arrivals, money and candidate events are not captured by these forecast files; the model and correction record provides other context.
| Race and subject | Earlier chance / run time | Later chance / run time | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-LA-6 · house · election_day · Democratic Party | 14% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 6% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 14% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-22 · house · election_day · Marquette Greene-Scott | 5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 5% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NC-4 · house · election_day · Valerie Foushee | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OR · senate · election_day · Jeff Merkley | 98% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z | 98% 2026-10-12T19:57:11Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersba474f0b-a2cc-4b14-96b3-502c2ccae06a → f2f15a89-6d3a-4d53-83c9-7767d2b33428 |
| US-VA · senate · election_day · Mark Warner | 96% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 97% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 96% → 97% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse7e18438-97f9-4b47-88ec-3f2b19fa2192 → 1f363310-0214-4eb4-95c5-c894e72655b2 |
| US-VA · senate · nowcast · Mark Warner | 97% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 98% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 97% → 98% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersdc8bdc43-c905-4ac5-9bdb-a481186cde68 → e941405d-ec62-4fcb-bc0a-bd11bba2ca94 |
| US-OH-4 · house · election_day · Joshua Kolasinski | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WA-3 · house · election_day · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 40% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 36% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 40% → 36% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NC-14 · house · election_day · LaKesha Womack | 16% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 8% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 16% → 8% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OK-5 · house · election_day · Jena Nelson | 13% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 6% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 13% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MN-7 · house · election_day · Erik Osberg | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MT · senate · election_day · Seth Bodnar | 1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 1% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf5388630-7941-4fe7-bc3a-be8f045a0090 → d7235311-a403-47e7-ba32-22e909c8eba7 |
| US-MT · senate · nowcast · Seth Bodnar | <1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 1% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersef1a62f4-1e23-46c5-ae84-5797a3b970f7 → e8136fa1-9e2d-4e67-bf8d-520409a926f9 |
| US-CA-20 · house · election_day · Sandra Van Scotter | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AL-5 · house · election_day · Andrew Sneed | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NC-1 · house · election_day · Don Davis | 75% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 82% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 75% → 82% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH-7 · house · election_day · Brian Poindexter | 65% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 72% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 65% → 72% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OK-2 · house · election_day · Brandon Wade | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NC-12 · house · election_day · Alma Adams | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TN · governor · election_day · Jerri Green | 1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 2% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 1% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers137ccfc9-060d-4b0e-beee-9272e9691a07 → ed0f16ce-a451-4377-b517-d60a443452c7 |
| US-TN · governor · nowcast · Jerri Green | 1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 1% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers7a12bda3-f8ae-4958-883e-fe62c0ab55ed → 2c4cae28-900f-49b5-951b-23dee169df57 |
| US-ID-2 · house · election_day · Ellie Gilbreath | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AZ-4 · house · election_day · Greg Stanton | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NC-9 · house · election_day · Richard Ojeda | 23% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 14% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 23% → 14% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IA-2 · house · election_day · Lindsay James | 49% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 49% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-38 · house · election_day · Melissa McDonough | 6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 6% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-5 · house · election_day · Gregory Meeks | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AR-4 · house · election_day · James Russell | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL · senate · election_day · Angie Nixon | 10% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 14% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 10% → 14% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers195b9b05-429c-45c5-8752-3b9958be6c2d → 574c2e53-2418-4d80-8b6a-1761c1dff10c |
| US-FL · senate · nowcast · Angie Nixon | 7% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 10% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 7% → 10% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierscb73e6fe-c90b-417f-837d-e882249c665f → 1dd7d2a5-1554-40d3-aef1-b17a487785be |
| US-MN-5 · house · election_day · Ilhan Omar | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-28 · house · election_day · Henry Cuellar | 67% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 74% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 67% → 74% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NV-2 · house · election_day · Teresa Benitez-Thompson | 38% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 32% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 38% → 32% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-4 · house · election_day · Jason Pearce | 3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 3% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX · governor · election_day · Gina Hinojosa | 19% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 25% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 19% → 25% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers995c71fd-ecf8-4641-b5a7-611d4fc36029 → a9ca2237-4354-4c9a-9d24-3abbece8fa42 |
| US-TX · governor · nowcast · Gina Hinojosa | 18% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 28% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 18% → 28% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers43db8778-4bf6-4707-9eac-32781ba8db98 → a1a68b20-8215-4b32-bc01-a50ea98245ff |
| US-MA-8 · house · election_day · Stephen Lynch | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NC-13 · house · election_day · Paul Barringer | 12% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 5% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 12% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-7 · house · election_day · Claire Valdez | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-ND-AL · house · election_day · Trygve Hammer | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL-9 · house · election_day · Daniel Biss | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MI-2 · house · election_day · Benjamin Ambrose | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MD-6 · house · election_day · April McClain Delaney | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AL-7 · house · election_day · Terri Sewell | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-33 · house · election_day · Pete Aguilar | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-24 · house · election_day · Oliver Gilbert | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-VA-2 · house · election_day · Elaine Luria | 59% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 62% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 59% → 62% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-4 · house · election_day · LaShonda Holloway | 17% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 9% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 17% → 9% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MI-10 · house · election_day · Christina Hines | 49% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 50% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 49% → 50% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MN-2 · house · election_day · Matt Little | 87% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 88% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 87% → 88% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-8 · house · election_day · Jennifer Jenkins | 12% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 6% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 12% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-51 · house · election_day · Sara Jacobs | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-16 · house · election_day · Sam Liccardo | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OR-6 · house · election_day · Andrea Salinas | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-VA-10 · house · election_day · Suhas Subramanyam | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-28 · house · election_day · Judy Chu | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL-4 · house · election_day · Patty Garcia | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OR-3 · house · election_day · Maxine Dexter | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NM · governor · election_day · Deb Haaland | 87% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 91% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 87% → 91% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3bc06438-fcd6-4df4-918a-9eaef080af0b → 40beac65-7cce-4f6b-8204-26fff666cb14 |
| US-NM · governor · nowcast · Deb Haaland | 86% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 92% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 86% → 92% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd3c5d5b1-c21c-4e80-b77e-8be5c2c3d1c9 → f61735b0-b198-4abd-8d98-19c667319d9c |
| US-TX-29 · house · election_day · Sylvia Garcia | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OR-5 · house · election_day · Janelle Bynum | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA-3 · house · election_day · Maura Keller | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-5 · house · election_day · Michael Masuda | 6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 6% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-21 · house · election_day · Blake Gendebien | 33% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 26% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 33% → 26% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-15 · house · election_day · Kevin Mullin | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-27 · house · election_day · Eliott Rodriguez | 24% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 15% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 24% → 15% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MO-1 · house · election_day · Wesley Bell | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-KY-1 · house · election_day · John "Drew" Williams | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-SC-3 · house · election_day · Eunice Lehmacher | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA-14 · house · election_day · Shawn Harris | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-ID · senate · election_day · Todd Achilles | 9% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 12% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 9% → 12% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa260ddb2-d6aa-414f-bf5a-5866844c61e2 → 0bc7ceea-6548-4860-b8f9-0a537c111b45 |
| US-ID · senate · nowcast · Todd Achilles | 8% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 11% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 8% → 11% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2b19c027-7294-4c1f-a4f7-a1899ba03ad6 → af1d7d06-1897-44cc-87b9-b4048c09c5f4 |
| US-TN-2 · house · election_day · Michaela Barnett | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CO-7 · house · election_day · Brittany Pettersen | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-PA-8 · house · election_day · Paige Cognetti | 47% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 45% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 47% → 45% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-KS-2 · house · election_day · Don Coover | 6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 6% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-14 · house · election_day · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH · governor · election_day · Amy Acton | 58% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 67% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 58% → 67% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9179b9fa-7e2e-489d-a5ee-e6a74819575d → 6186111d-400c-4398-9d97-c8b6e3ad252c |
| US-OH · governor · nowcast · Amy Acton | 58% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 71% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 58% → 71% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9a2adc10-adf9-42fb-9b11-191285ab6100 → 2fa4e454-84e3-4066-a05e-6db61747173d |
| US-AR · governor · election_day · Fredrick Love | 8% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 9% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 8% → 9% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf47919fd-6c75-4041-9067-21876948ec4a → 6c83791f-86ac-41b0-972f-c7b68170e29f |
| US-AR · governor · nowcast · Fredrick Love | 15% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 19% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 15% → 19% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2beb88d4-7947-474d-a1c2-d7f94648afbf → 7c191351-bdfe-4873-a588-3619dcd07185 |
| US-MO-6 · house · election_day · Josh Smead | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-KS · senate · election_day · Adam Hamilton | 32% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 41% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 32% → 41% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersaf143835-d5c4-46b2-809d-3c7f589043e3 → 683387c0-f788-4883-b8c9-9ac3f6c958c3 |
| US-KS · senate · nowcast · Adam Hamilton | 42% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 56% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 42% → 56% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9d30b091-9dce-4615-9d5f-ba883526efd2 → 30266960-8ba0-49c7-b3d2-ff6c67344e75 |
| US-ME · senate · election_day · Troy Jackson | 32% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 41% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 32% → 41% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1a53b286-f221-4fa0-a5b3-820b4d296dc0 → 2f049e84-379c-41d1-b724-b352d4857bdb |
| US-ME · senate · nowcast · Troy Jackson | 54% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 68% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 54% → 68% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd34f7c3e-e1c5-4955-945e-e1c4b1c9f6e6 → b1824c20-d4d2-4b78-bfaa-8d244d4c471c |
| US-CA-13 · house · election_day · Adam Gray | 86% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 93% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 86% → 93% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-17 · house · election_day · Casey Shepard | 5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 5% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL-11 · house · election_day · Bill Foster | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-28 · house · election_day · Phil Ehr | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MO-5 · house · election_day · Emanuel Cleaver | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-22 · house · election_day · John Mannion | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MD · governor · election_day · Wes Moore | >99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | >99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0f8ad980-6078-4012-ac7a-08cd96a9d4da → 1f21aadf-2b7d-4dd6-94d2-6958ebbc8ed3 |
| US-MD · governor · nowcast · Wes Moore | 99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | >99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse6faefc0-6a17-4635-a811-d7cf34516f8b → b935724f-1c97-4612-8832-4112041001c5 |
| US-CO-5 · house · election_day · Jessica Killin | 43% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 40% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 43% → 40% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-2 · house · election_day · Amanda Green | 14% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 6% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 14% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MA-3 · house · election_day · Lori Trahan | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH-3 · house · election_day · Joyce Beatty | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NH · governor · election_day · Cinde Warmington | 7% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 9% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 7% → 9% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd970397b-c523-4897-af69-ace933301823 → e033326a-ccc1-421c-a9d6-74b21c3a5b3a |
| US-NH · governor · nowcast · Cinde Warmington | 3% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 5% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 3% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf7d27197-67d0-49d7-be2c-c7a970f62d9c → cd685797-45d8-4816-b684-0322ee7e2765 |
| US-NC-7 · house · election_day · Kimberly Hardy | 18% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 10% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 18% → 10% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WV · senate · election_day · Rachel Fetty Anderson | 1% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z | 1% 2026-10-12T19:57:11Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3f42109b-04ee-41ad-ba9c-538072927b7b → 8f3764e6-902d-4123-919a-e702c5b9c938 |
| US-OK · senate · election_day · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | 1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 1% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5e5937a3-5695-44f8-94df-689bcb33715b → 1316cbb3-44be-4f12-83a6-07b52bd0e1ce |
| US-OK · senate · nowcast · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | <1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | <1% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd6f70a91-7fc9-47f8-91d8-f49fe0169e2c → e1acd4be-f2ea-478d-8453-2b7caeb43bf3 |
| US-CA-32 · house · election_day · Brad Sherman | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NE · senate · election_day · Dan Osborn | 37% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 48% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 37% → 48% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers8ab2d1d3-5a51-4ecc-bcfa-f92859882355 → 4082f357-10dd-44e4-a9fc-778d3108b8a1 |
| US-NE · senate · nowcast · Dan Osborn | 35% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 48% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 35% → 48% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0c3631a6-2f05-432c-8a7b-be99bacd2b4a → 844a2c3f-9de8-4176-81b0-a15341a1a8d1 |
| US-TN-1 · house · election_day · Kristi Burke | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-12 · house · election_day · Angela Rodriguez Prilliman | 3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 3% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MS-4 · house · election_day · Jeffrey Hulum III | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OK-1 · house · election_day · John Croisant | 6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 6% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WA-2 · house · election_day · Rick Larsen | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-SC-7 · house · election_day · John Vincent | 6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 6% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OK-3 · house · election_day · Suzie Byrd | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-ID · governor · election_day · Terri Pickens | 1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 1% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers58fdb2e1-852a-4ccb-a648-f275d03fc15a → a89d12dc-88b8-46b1-a1e1-0e60c6c5ac3c |
| US-ID · governor · nowcast · Terri Pickens | 2% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 2% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2558ea2e-9f78-4642-808a-5e267c0856e2 → 7b834896-2f4e-4722-9172-5a596dfaee91 |
| US-TX-8 · house · election_day · Laura Jones | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA-1 · house · election_day · Amanda Hollowell | 16% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 7% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 16% → 7% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-UT-1 · house · election_day · Ben McAdams | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL · senate · election_day · Juliana Stratton | 94% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 95% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 94% → 95% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierseb010c2e-31f1-4563-9c5f-2348fb4e7505 → e31b9060-d60d-4d36-b3b5-a24c28ae82f0 |
| US-IL · senate · nowcast · Juliana Stratton | 90% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 93% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 90% → 93% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3f765f0a-65b4-45b6-b5ee-d500fb56ce48 → 37b60bcf-ac5f-415d-a975-eb4f798f9836 |
| US-ME-1 · house · election_day · Chellie Pingree | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-PA-2 · house · election_day · Brendan Boyle | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH · senate · election_day · Sherrod Brown | 64% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 72% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 64% → 72% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb42b4601-75f3-4173-91d6-0cf33e15ce7c → 6ff22d5e-10d6-4331-8804-804b6ab376e7 |
| US-OH · senate · nowcast · Sherrod Brown | 63% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 75% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 63% → 75% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse4f94114-4340-44a4-a9e4-80f119a94c8d → d24fbe12-0694-473c-80d1-52e8e6ce0423 |
| US-CA-23 · house · election_day · Tessa Lynn Hodge | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WA-7 · house · election_day · Pramila Jayapal | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MN-6 · house · election_day · Doug Chapin | 7% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 7% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-1 · house · election_day · Chris Gallant | 27% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 18% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 27% → 18% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AZ-7 · house · election_day · Adelita Grijalva | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CT-3 · house · election_day · Rosa DeLauro | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-PA-4 · house · election_day · Madeleine Dean | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-23 · house · election_day · Aaron Gies | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NJ-6 · house · election_day · Frank Pallone | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-2 · house · election_day · Shaun Finnie | 6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 6% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-UT-2 · house · election_day · Peter Crosby | 12% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 5% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 12% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-KY-5 · house · election_day · Ned Pillersdorf | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-16 · house · election_day · Kelly Kirschner | 35% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 29% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 35% → 29% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL-5 · house · election_day · Mike Quigley | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MS-3 · house · election_day · Michael Chiaradio | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH-15 · house · election_day · Don Leonard | 38% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 32% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 38% → 32% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MA-4 · house · election_day · Jake Auchincloss | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-11 · house · election_day · James Pericola | 25% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 16% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 25% → 16% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-14 · house · election_day · Thurman Bartie | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-ME-2 · house · election_day · Matthew Dunlap | 36% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 29% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 36% → 29% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IA · governor · election_day · Rob Sand | 79% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 85% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 79% → 85% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf6f98a8f-75bf-4522-beb3-f9191665a110 → dc2b8c38-45be-4982-853e-94bf3fb416bd |
| US-IA · governor · nowcast · Rob Sand | 89% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 93% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 89% → 93% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa8c0857e-ef29-4591-8e31-1644690e051f → 49f34abd-7e37-48a2-a325-95b3a3388144 |
| US-PA-10 · house · election_day · Janelle Stelson | 61% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 66% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 61% → 66% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-RI · governor · election_day · Helena Foulkes | 99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2779090f-23dd-45df-a6b3-be8a393b0d32 → 0f2ab342-01ac-4a9c-838e-9d3eb2fbc3ef |
| US-RI · governor · nowcast · Helena Foulkes | 99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | >99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers33386600-354a-4419-8a2e-48b1f75ed56b → 0f248261-14f5-4b3e-9189-670fd71fc0d3 |
| US-FL-6 · house · election_day · Eric Yonce | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CT · governor · election_day · Ned Lamont | 98% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 98% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers49d7f6c9-bbc3-4311-bd72-0f5b9701cde1 → aaef5cd4-2706-4a3f-9680-85a69f3e633d |
| US-CT · governor · nowcast · Ned Lamont | 99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers71928c4c-c513-49b3-a985-b2574e2a076d → fc3f750d-13bb-4485-8810-81de855b12ee |
| US-AL · senate · election_day · Everett Wess | 2% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 2% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf94a142c-442f-4751-aabc-8209b39bb633 → fe44f91a-3ecc-412e-9d7f-cda15de4cc63 |
| US-AL · senate · nowcast · Everett Wess | 2% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 2% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse2d6d52b-f100-4286-9c31-20a2c0ba5663 → 9888574d-af82-4735-83ef-7fa03f8dd807 |
| US-FL-5 · house · election_day · Rachel Grage | 5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 5% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AL-4 · house · election_day · Amanda Pusczek | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MN · senate · election_day · Peggy Flanagan | 81% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 86% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 81% → 86% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers115f45f6-5674-4609-b077-2e4599eefb0e → 72237939-bdfc-4dc4-b845-a499db4943f6 |
| US-MN · senate · nowcast · Peggy Flanagan | 66% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 77% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 66% → 77% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd68bf357-e5e7-44f8-b8a0-64c9582ab376 → 2749270e-bd1b-448d-b900-ada014e398bd |
| US-TN-7 · house · election_day · Darden Copeland | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-15 · house · election_day · Robert People | 8% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 3% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 8% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-43 · house · election_day · Maxine Waters | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CO · governor · election_day · Phil Weiser | 95% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z | 95% 2026-10-12T19:57:11Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers283d4402-a3e5-477e-9671-c367024b62b1 → 5c445754-c891-48e5-965c-222bd64f0631 |
| US-WI-6 · house · election_day · Brad Smith | 2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MD-7 · house · election_day · Kweisi Mfume | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MN-3 · house · election_day · Kelly Morrison | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-32 · house · election_day · Dan Barrios | 15% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 7% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 15% → 7% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TN-4 · house · election_day · Victoria Broderick | 6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 6% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MD-2 · house · election_day · Johnny Olszewski | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TN-8 · house · election_day · Heidi Kuhn | 5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 5% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NE-3 · house · election_day · Becky Stille | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MS · senate · election_day · Scott Colom | 11% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 12% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 11% → 12% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierscdb1e06e-41dd-4365-8a95-475989fe5a40 → 030ccdf1-a80e-478e-9181-6334417b37af |
| US-MS · senate · nowcast · Scott Colom | 16% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 19% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 16% → 19% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1fe5e515-eb5c-407b-8870-7cf634b917bf → 203cf1b2-3b00-43e7-9f8f-256812192471 |
| US-NM-3 · house · election_day · Teresa Leger Fernández | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NJ-2 · house · election_day · Zack Mullock | 17% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 8% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 17% → 8% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-KY-2 · house · election_day · Megan Wingfield | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL-14 · house · election_day · Lauren Underwood | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-34 · house · election_day · Vicente Gonzalez | 58% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 62% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 58% → 62% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX · senate · election_day · James Talarico | 49% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 59% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 49% → 59% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersee126414-a158-4932-9e01-61b150cd5587 → dfad20d3-2a64-43b1-8fca-51fe0d445c0a |
| US-TX · senate · nowcast · James Talarico | 59% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 72% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 59% → 72% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers02b4ec15-1775-4dc2-9fac-8d3bb7571009 → 020fcf2e-6f5d-4865-b836-23a03b5bd71c |
| US-OH-13 · house · election_day · Emilia Sykes | 98% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 98% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL · governor · election_day · David Jolly | 16% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 22% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 16% → 22% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse88bab3e-dc25-481e-b677-171f5123931a → 7e46f71f-d164-43e3-a23c-fa19e3db2de1 |
| US-FL · governor · nowcast · David Jolly | 11% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 19% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 11% → 19% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf0b99925-8735-4864-93e4-5defbe24ff56 → d6b412e5-6fb7-4559-89db-77319e3bcc56 |
| US-MI-13 · house · election_day · Donavan McKinney | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NJ-12 · house · election_day · Adam Hamawy | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-SC-6 · house · election_day · Jim Clyburn | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH-9 · house · election_day · Marcy Kaptur | 55% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 57% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 55% → 57% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WI-3 · house · election_day · Rebecca Cooke | 52% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 53% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 52% → 53% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NE-2 · house · election_day · Denise Powell | 80% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 89% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 80% → 89% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-VA-3 · house · election_day · Bobby Scott | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-VA-6 · house · election_day · Beth Macy | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-22 · house · election_day · Randy Villegas | 51% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 51% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH-8 · house · election_day · Vanessa Enoch | 15% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 6% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 15% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AZ · governor · election_day · Katie Hobbs | 89% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 92% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 89% → 92% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers31fc6b8d-ae13-4ac2-926e-f3ae92547862 → 6ec22569-e29b-4cbd-ab2c-414d05bb4b5b |
| US-AZ · governor · nowcast · Katie Hobbs | 85% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 91% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 85% → 91% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierse3b2940b-6b76-4b72-a613-87a6ceb001aa → 80d0e0b6-a12a-406f-a9f3-9bdc912fd8ee |
| US-VT · governor · election_day · Amanda Janoo | 6% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 9% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 6% → 9% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd9152e17-3022-4d64-9345-7d25a549100b → cade9da4-dae5-4ae1-91dd-b6a9404a01d0 |
| US-VT · governor · nowcast · Amanda Janoo | 8% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 14% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 8% → 14% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers79a56bfb-c72f-44e2-bf92-4b8a9a6b4084 → ee5837aa-7c10-4d09-a1b8-21ced57a6fa2 |
| US-MI-6 · house · election_day · Debbie Dingell | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MI-7 · house · election_day · William Lawrence | 50% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 50% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IN-3 · house · election_day · Kelly Thompson | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WA-5 · house · election_day · Carmela Conroy | 13% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 6% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 13% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-LA · senate · election_day · Jamie Davis | 5% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 6% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 5% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0b3495dd-fdb9-45b4-9148-b3756e363ada → 0557c7e1-65b5-4656-910f-a1f141ba00a0 |
| US-LA · senate · nowcast · Jamie Davis | 6% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 9% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 6% → 9% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersced0cf7e-fa36-44c7-8149-c16e445974d2 → 5b75316c-2f6b-424c-8810-2752327995ce |
| US-NE · governor · election_day · Lynne Walz | 12% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 17% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 12% → 17% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers8ddb0cef-5620-463f-b927-b715f434a4b6 → ba1ba770-86ea-482f-be54-1f0f3f4d9031 |
| US-NE · governor · nowcast · Lynne Walz | 11% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 18% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 11% → 18% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers8b3bf60a-e44c-4a38-a900-3164e604a1d4 → 2d6d4bdf-6ee5-45d2-bb0e-551fd908b2de |
| US-TX-1 · house · election_day · Yolanda Prince | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-39 · house · election_day · Mark Takano | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-35 · house · election_day · Johnny Garcia | 52% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 52% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-PA-9 · house · election_day · Rachel Wallace | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NC-11 · house · election_day · Jamie Ager | 66% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 75% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 66% → 75% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MT-2 · house · election_day · Brian Miller | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NC-5 · house · election_day · Chuck Hubbard | 15% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 7% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 15% → 7% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MI-3 · house · election_day · Hillary Scholten | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA-11 · house · election_day · Chris Harden | 18% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 10% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 18% → 10% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-13 · house · election_day · Mark Nair | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-KS · governor · election_day · Cindy Holscher | 25% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 32% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 25% → 32% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd6ce7084-aa23-43bc-bbad-f25780a15d9f → 6c755758-6f8b-488a-8609-dbaaf3c93e8c |
| US-KS · governor · nowcast · Cindy Holscher | 16% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 25% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 16% → 25% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3487dcb4-2aa1-4927-89f9-14049416b625 → bddd19f1-8896-40be-a79e-81b51bcdacf5 |
| US-AL-6 · house · election_day · Maurice Mercer | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NE-1 · house · election_day · Chris Backemeyer | 18% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 10% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 18% → 10% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WI-5 · house · election_day · Andrew Beck | 3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 3% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-HI · governor · election_day · Josh Green | 99% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z | 99% 2026-10-12T19:57:11Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd1089616-c567-4bbb-94d4-b3f6b6e149ed → 4492156c-feaa-45bd-b6fe-b74fd07580ee |
| US-FL-21 · house · election_day · James Martin | 7% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 7% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-25 · house · election_day · Dione Sims | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WA-4 · house · election_day · John Duresky | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-48 · house · election_day · Marni von Wilpert | 78% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 87% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 78% → 87% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-9 · house · election_day · Darren Soto | 50% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 50% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-2 · house · election_day · Patrick Halpin | 9% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 3% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 9% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-2 · house · election_day · Jared Huffman | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IN-8 · house · election_day · Mary Allen | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-RI-2 · house · election_day · Seth Magaziner | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH-1 · house · election_day · Greg Landsman | 82% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 91% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 82% → 91% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WY · senate · election_day · James W. Byrd | <1% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z | <1% 2026-10-12T19:57:11Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers31d64219-09e2-4f4c-aff1-73b408cd61ad → 6017d4db-59aa-4906-81da-567f0667260f |
| US-CA-18 · house · election_day · Zoe Lofgren | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-47 · house · election_day · Dave Min | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-UT-4 · house · election_day · Jonny Larsen | 2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL-13 · house · election_day · Nikki Budzinski | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NC · senate · election_day · Roy Cooper | 92% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 95% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 92% → 95% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers4a22a621-88fd-4ab4-bd33-41ab2e1bedd1 → 38627830-06ff-4988-a5b1-0c24f7e39852 |
| US-NC · senate · nowcast · Roy Cooper | 94% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 96% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 94% → 96% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersaeda5e3a-da4b-4e4c-83f3-75adbaa6a2f1 → 892beee4-5b7d-4d4c-bbb1-1b17623990fe |
| US-NV-1 · house · election_day · Dina Titus | 94% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 98% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 94% → 98% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-4 · house · election_day · Laura Gillen | 92% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 97% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 92% → 97% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NJ-4 · house · election_day · Rachel Peace | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OR · governor · election_day · Tina Kotek | 72% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 78% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 72% → 78% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3bbc3048-d8c2-4cac-908a-1b33bfd5c14d → afe09624-fae1-472f-80e8-495944f66d98 |
| US-OR · governor · nowcast · Tina Kotek | 44% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 56% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 44% → 56% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2f9f02fe-5d3d-4216-8094-686fe8346724 → 2ae5556c-ea3e-473d-b0f3-679e76486529 |
| US-SC · governor · election_day · Jermaine Johnson | 17% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 18% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 17% → 18% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers858959c6-f95f-41e0-8875-678c257a984d → 7c52edc5-7453-4960-b901-9eeb5043a349 |
| US-SC · governor · nowcast · Jermaine Johnson | 12% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 15% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 12% → 15% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd29d4730-ff8a-4450-a179-e8319277af2f → c2c4ed54-0577-40cc-bdaa-bdd59d79d229 |
| US-AZ-3 · house · election_day · Yassamin Ansari | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MN-8 · house · election_day · Trina Swanson | 12% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 5% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 12% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA-6 · house · election_day · Lucy McBath | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-SD · senate · election_day · Brian Bengs | 14% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 20% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 14% → 20% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers58e502c8-aab6-42fc-8f74-a68201eae8ca → d7653943-9a3e-4971-b928-63c700f72ccf |
| US-SD · senate · nowcast · Brian Bengs | 11% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 17% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 11% → 17% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers34ae136b-5ce4-41bd-9ab6-4e4ecba4d716 → 3a8184bf-90a0-4314-ade3-6255681db1c0 |
| US-ID-1 · house · election_day · Kaylee Peterson | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH-2 · house · election_day · Jennifer Mazzuckelli | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-1 · house · election_day · Gay Valimont | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-31 · house · election_day · Gil Cisneros | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-HI-2 · house · election_day · Jill Tokuda | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-VA-8 · house · election_day · Don Beyer | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CO-1 · house · election_day · Melat Kiros | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-PA-11 · house · election_day · Nancy Mannion | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AR · senate · election_day · Hallie Shoffner | 3% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 4% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 3% → 4% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3ac25d15-6c03-40cb-ae54-9c5495984b11 → a9b5bff0-f055-4237-8587-0e784fe201a2 |
| US-AR · senate · nowcast · Hallie Shoffner | 4% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 6% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 4% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers50ab00df-efa8-4c02-b41f-8d97a52dd1d4 → 721788f9-77a1-483f-a05f-8d60fcc0df2a |
| US-PA-15 · house · election_day · Ray Bilger | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AZ-5 · house · election_day · Elizabeth Lee | 11% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 5% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 11% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NC-2 · house · election_day · Deborah Ross | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MN-4 · house · election_day · Betty McCollum | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-3 · house · election_day · Ami Bera | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NC-6 · house · election_day · Cyril Jefferson | 12% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 5% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 12% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IA-3 · house · election_day · Sarah Trone Garriott | 52% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 54% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 52% → 54% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-DE-AL · house · election_day · Sarah McBride | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OR-4 · house · election_day · Val Hoyle | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-PA-17 · house · election_day · Chris Deluzio | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA-5 · house · election_day · Nikema Williams | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NM-1 · house · election_day · Melanie Stansbury | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-41 · house · election_day · Linda Sánchez | 98% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 98% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-38 · house · election_day · Hilda Solis | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-14 · house · election_day · Kathy Castor | 82% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 92% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 82% → 92% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MD-8 · house · election_day · Jamie Raskin | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH-14 · house · election_day · Maria Jukic | 5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 5% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-12 · house · election_day · Micah Lasher | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-21 · house · election_day · Jim Costa | 94% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 98% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 94% → 98% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NJ-9 · house · election_day · Nellie Pou | 95% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 98% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 95% → 98% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AL-1 · house · election_day · Clyde Jones | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-18 · house · election_day · Pat Ryan | 97% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 97% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-PA-1 · house · election_day · Bob Harvie | 31% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 28% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 31% → 28% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-6 · house · election_day · Grace Meng | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA · governor · election_day · Xavier Becerra | 99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa74dc0c6-b574-4338-a64e-26043c4b2f33 → 4505ea8d-d76c-4643-99b2-c7254b5d9d57 |
| US-CA · governor · nowcast · Xavier Becerra | 99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | >99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers40b6e927-1c1f-4327-8a78-b04ca1dff7b3 → bea311f8-fc64-4acb-b443-0a58a3772ead |
| US-WI-4 · house · election_day · Gwen Moore | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AL · governor · election_day · Doug Jones | 4% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 5% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 4% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5db4a680-ac91-4338-abb0-cad9d74591d4 → 8371189d-f1c6-4a33-8962-bdbf3385b258 |
| US-AL · governor · nowcast · Doug Jones | 3% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 4% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 3% → 4% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers35f918bd-fa8e-41cf-b5dc-f774696229d8 → cf491c84-ac56-42ff-bd39-27a0e32b2b47 |
| US-FL-25 · house · election_day · Jared Moskowitz | 82% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 90% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 82% → 90% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-24 · house · election_day · Kevin Burge | 11% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 5% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 11% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL-3 · house · election_day · Delia Ramirez | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA-10 · house · election_day · Pamela DeLancy | 10% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 4% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 10% → 4% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-26 · house · election_day · Nicole Locklin | 3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 3% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MO-4 · house · election_day · Jordan Herrera | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-PA-7 · house · election_day · Bob Brooks | 65% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 72% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 65% → 72% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-VA-7 · house · election_day · Eugene Vindman | 93% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 98% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 93% → 98% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL-12 · house · election_day · Julie Fortier | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OK · governor · election_day · Cyndi Munson | 11% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z | 11% 2026-10-12T19:57:11Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0976a079-514e-4eb9-aedc-a54398d7be8d → 7ea384fb-a5fe-4fa3-bb2d-04da34cd1cd1 |
| US-TN-3 · house · election_day · Anna Golladay | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MI · governor · election_day · Jocelyn Benson | 88% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 91% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 88% → 91% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa5045aa0-3488-4d0b-86ff-e3e8e5170c21 → 8d5eb32a-19b6-4b55-98ed-6beaf7db1899 |
| US-MI · governor · nowcast · Jocelyn Benson | 89% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 93% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 89% → 93% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers519c9372-24c2-4373-951f-1cb3cf9c66dd → 6cf53ae1-b1e6-4fcc-b6d5-b93e9e90d6fb |
| US-MA · senate · election_day · Ed Markey | >99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | >99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers696a716c-43c2-4d90-864a-ace97215f631 → c351fda6-5a13-47a4-89be-3a16da6ccb49 |
| US-MA · senate · nowcast · Ed Markey | >99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | >99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersa44241c7-18a8-4151-ae1a-f15464c022d0 → ae4fbfaf-74fb-4c86-b116-5656122a085a |
| US-IL-7 · house · election_day · La Shawn Ford | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH-11 · house · election_day · Shontel Brown | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-VA-5 · house · election_day · Tom Perriello | 29% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 22% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 29% → 22% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL-1 · house · election_day · Jonathan Jackson | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AR-2 · house · election_day · Chris Jones | 40% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 36% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 40% → 36% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-23 · house · election_day · Lois Frankel | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AK · governor · election_day · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 83% 2026-10-11T05:25:44Z | 88% 2026-10-12T19:57:14Z | Displayed 83% → 88% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers93e7d562-d80c-444f-8b18-25189569a914 → fda50096-893a-4f3c-a99a-937454e58895 |
| US-AK · governor · nowcast · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 86% 2026-10-11T05:25:44Z | 90% 2026-10-12T19:57:14Z | Displayed 86% → 90% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb5918ae9-9d55-4b44-a108-8fd36b51000e → 41902b6d-1fce-4ef1-aa03-9e94821f9f67 |
| US-MI-5 · house · election_day · Christian Vukasovich | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NH-1 · house · election_day · Stefany Shaheen | 81% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 90% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 81% → 90% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-VA-11 · house · election_day · James Walkinshaw | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-22 · house · election_day · Pia Dandiya | 52% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 52% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-18 · house · election_day · Curtis Gibson | 8% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 3% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 8% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AK-AL · house · election_day · Bill Hill | 22% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 22% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-1 · house · election_day · Mike McGuire | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-RI-1 · house · election_day · Gabe Amo | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MO-8 · house · election_day · Christopher Riechard | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NJ · senate · election_day · Cory Booker | 94% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z | 94% 2026-10-12T19:57:11Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers8d3d13f2-f956-4a30-a347-dffbad1cd039 → bd7b1137-66f2-4d21-82b2-ece2c937045c |
| US-PA-12 · house · election_day · Summer Lee | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-KY-4 · house · election_day · Melissa Claire Strange | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-3 · house · election_day · Tom Suozzi | 88% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 95% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 88% → 95% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IN-7 · house · election_day · André Carson | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IA · senate · election_day · Josh Turek | 42% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 51% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 42% → 51% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfa1cf7a2-84e1-461f-ad6f-bcb02e739008 → 0a034c06-df1a-46e9-afa6-b1a65d4cf546 |
| US-IA · senate · nowcast · Josh Turek | 41% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 55% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 41% → 55% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers6cbfa236-d55d-4faf-b969-b103dc4c9c74 → 588a143d-42ed-4565-9de2-1352cbcd2768 |
| US-NY-13 · house · election_day · Darializa Avila Chevalier | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-36 · house · election_day · Rhonda Hart | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-23 · house · election_day · Katy Padilla Stout | 28% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 19% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 28% → 19% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-7 · house · election_day · Lizzie Fletcher | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IA-4 · house · election_day · Dave Dawson | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CO · senate · election_day · John Hickenlooper | 98% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z | 98% 2026-10-12T19:57:11Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3ddf8ced-7610-41f8-a1ff-bb4a8942be62 → 6f72640e-81d1-47a8-b8d6-496b75fe3043 |
| US-AL-3 · house · election_day · Lee McInnis | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-36 · house · election_day · Ted Lieu | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MT-1 · house · election_day · Sam Forstag | 40% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 36% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 40% → 36% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MD-5 · house · election_day · Adrian Boafo | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-19 · house · election_day · Jimmy Panetta | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-33 · house · election_day · Colin Allred | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-20 · house · election_day · Paul Tonko | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA-2 · house · election_day · Sanford Bishop | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NC-3 · house · election_day · Raymond Smith Jr. | 30% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 23% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 30% → 23% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-52 · house · election_day · Juan Vargas | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OR-2 · house · election_day · Chris Beck | 2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OR-1 · house · election_day · Suzanne Bonamici | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NM · senate · election_day · Ben Ray Luján | 93% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 94% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 93% → 94% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers7de5f89c-bbf8-43ec-a8a9-5d173518554e → deb26d8d-32e8-41dc-8d6f-0161b4c12c32 |
| US-NM · senate · nowcast · Ben Ray Luján | 90% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 94% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 90% → 94% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0d6770f6-e825-400f-a500-aa0c2f4e75c3 → 3c9d6edb-fcf4-4197-96fc-cc1756d6eca4 |
| US-NC-10 · house · election_day · Ashley Bell | 8% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 3% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 8% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH-12 · house · election_day · Jerrad Christian | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MO-2 · house · election_day · Fred Wellman | 39% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 33% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 39% → 33% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-PA-16 · house · election_day · Justin Wagner | 2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-26 · house · election_day · Jacqui Irwin | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WA-10 · house · election_day · Marilyn Strickland | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-KS-4 · house · election_day · Katy Tyndell | 2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CO-8 · house · election_day · Manny Rutinel | 55% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 58% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 55% → 58% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MI-4 · house · election_day · Sean McCann | 40% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 34% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 40% → 34% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-30 · house · election_day · Laura Friedman | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-5 · house · election_day · Chelsey Hockett | 6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 6% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MO-3 · house · election_day · Bethany Mann | 2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-SD · governor · election_day · Dan Ahlers | 2% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z | 2% 2026-10-12T19:57:11Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9a8bf0be-6b8d-4764-9c9f-cad6d51fb034 → 33767ddf-0c4b-43cd-89db-986df8d1551e |
| US-AR-3 · house · election_day · Robb Ryerse | 2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-17 · house · election_day · Ro Khanna | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MI-9 · house · election_day · Ray Pooley | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-11 · house · election_day · Claire Reynolds | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-SC · senate · election_day · Annie Andrews | 21% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 21% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers173ccd7f-c67f-4430-8031-3664464e5fb6 → 98968b27-cb86-4f27-83f5-9c978bced02f |
| US-SC · senate · nowcast · Annie Andrews | 28% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 28% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers8858036b-4caa-4930-9bda-dc0e7e296556 → c5e9d4c2-3ab9-4530-be80-c7b3556e9f5b |
| US-IL-15 · house · election_day · Jennifer Todd | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-9 · house · election_day · Yvette Clarke | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA · senate · election_day · Jon Ossoff | 91% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 93% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 91% → 93% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers8078900e-662b-4059-b960-7e33669052ee → b0131744-3555-4030-9dcf-617ce18cd439 |
| US-GA · senate · nowcast · Jon Ossoff | 90% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 94% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 90% → 94% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers3ea3d772-ec73-4821-8024-152ecbbf1323 → bfad41f4-78ba-49cf-94ea-9a268a38f72d |
| US-NY-19 · house · election_day · Josh Riley | 96% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 96% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-VA-4 · house · election_day · Jennifer McClellan | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MS-1 · house · election_day · Cliff Johnson | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-DE · senate · election_day · Chris Coons | 99% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z | 99% 2026-10-12T19:57:11Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers06310444-dc52-4b57-9e7d-d84592d79103 → dcdcde61-085a-40b5-ba36-5cefe3d20cb7 |
| US-IL · governor · election_day · JB Pritzker | 96% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 97% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 96% → 97% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers2e206e69-b517-4f8f-b4f4-9e454ae52eb3 → 93437b33-3a69-408f-b7e9-387c2221c31e |
| US-IL · governor · nowcast · JB Pritzker | 96% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 98% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 96% → 98% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers208c150c-97b5-46a1-88b7-2df0f3597a21 → 8bc5ec89-c898-435c-aec8-019a09b03c17 |
| US-WA-6 · house · election_day · Emily Randall | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-19 · house · election_day · Victor Arias | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-SC-1 · house · election_day · Nancy Lacore | 31% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 23% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 31% → 23% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH-10 · house · election_day · Kristina Knickerbocker | 19% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 10% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 19% → 10% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-3 · house · election_day · Seth Harp | 7% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 7% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-RI · senate · election_day · Jack Reed | 99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | >99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0bc387f9-6370-49ed-bc7a-abc31dd4d7ad → 05e70dcf-b5f1-4b42-b982-2eee8ab9d1b8 |
| US-RI · senate · nowcast · Jack Reed | >99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | >99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd256a478-b0ad-4d78-8204-74fffffa973c → 215ddbb9-3f0f-4096-b2eb-b1becf1b63a6 |
| US-CA-44 · house · election_day · Nanette Barragán | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NH · senate · election_day · Chris Pappas | 83% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 88% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 83% → 88% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers9cce6d0e-6ec8-4cfb-aadd-9d6650b9f12f → a6eb3b89-01bb-4cbd-86b9-064e99ed1a9c |
| US-NH · senate · nowcast · Chris Pappas | 78% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 86% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 78% → 86% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersca0297c5-1f2b-47e9-b682-3984364c0443 → d77aeb36-165a-4ea3-958a-120dc2013c3b |
| US-AZ-9 · house · election_day · Danielle Sterbinsky | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-17 · house · election_day · Cait Conley | 50% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 49% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 50% → 49% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-21 · house · election_day · Kristin Hook | 5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 5% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MA-6 · house · election_day · Dan Koh | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL-17 · house · election_day · Eric Sorensen | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NM-2 · house · election_day · Gabe Vasquez | 74% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 83% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 74% → 83% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-VA-9 · house · election_day · Joy Powers | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IN-1 · house · election_day · Frank Mrvan | 96% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 96% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-8 · house · election_day · Hakeem Jeffries | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AR-1 · house · election_day · Terri Yarbrough | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-KY-6 · house · election_day · Zach Dembo | 48% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 46% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 48% → 46% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MI-12 · house · election_day · Rashida Tlaib | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TN-6 · house · election_day · Mike Croley | 6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 6% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-PA-5 · house · election_day · Mary Gay Scanlon | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NV · governor · election_day · Aaron Ford | 28% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 35% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 28% → 35% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers95c76608-e6f2-46a9-a455-eeb838425253 → bddc8458-9ac5-4e3e-9d0f-8bca1b64c2a4 |
| US-NV · governor · nowcast · Aaron Ford | 18% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 26% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 18% → 26% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers8af0b7aa-67c7-4564-ad7a-e2b2c8005c15 → ef01be07-1798-4040-a436-f524c70a2e7e |
| US-SC-4 · house · election_day · Courtney McClain | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IN-5 · house · election_day · J.D. Ford | 21% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 12% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 21% → 12% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-35 · house · election_day · Norma Torres | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-24 · house · election_day · Alissa Ellman | 2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AZ-1 · house · election_day · Amish Shah | 64% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 71% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 64% → 71% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WV-1 · house · election_day · Vince George | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NJ-3 · house · election_day · Herb Conaway | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IN-2 · house · election_day · Jamee Decio | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-27 · house · election_day · George Whitesides | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-37 · house · election_day · Greg Casar | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-49 · house · election_day · Mike Levin | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TN-5 · house · election_day · Chaz Molder | 23% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 15% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 23% → 15% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA-12 · house · election_day · Ceretta Smith | 12% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 5% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 12% → 5% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AZ-6 · house · election_day · JoAnna Mendoza | 57% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 60% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 57% → 60% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-SC-2 · house · election_day · Zyon Khalifa | 16% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 8% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 16% → 8% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-20 · house · election_day · Joaquin Castro | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WA-1 · house · election_day · Suzan DelBene | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-PA-13 · house · election_day · Beth Farnham | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AK · senate · election_day · Mary Peltola | 34% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 45% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 34% → 45% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers098cc12f-32d8-4120-9c0e-92e13979839e → 6d40c3c8-8580-458e-b5b0-cbdcc6cfa20f |
| US-AK · senate · nowcast · Mary Peltola | 54% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 70% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 54% → 70% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersd95ef436-f0b0-476b-bb49-5f0638c92e76 → ac0abc60-7170-4848-b1a9-1caf04178650 |
| US-NJ-7 · house · election_day · Rebecca Bennett | 65% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 72% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 65% → 72% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TN · senate · election_day · Marquita Bradshaw | 2% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 2% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifierscc716b47-c96a-4132-ae85-013f14bb2a90 → 7d4d16e9-754b-437d-bd3a-f203ca72a4e3 |
| US-TN · senate · nowcast · Marquita Bradshaw | 1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 1% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers834d4bb4-16a8-414e-84a6-a7dd4565a8d6 → 22114d15-3b4f-44e0-ab36-ed5a9ae95a49 |
| US-CA-9 · house · election_day · Josh Harder | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-LA-2 · house · election_day · Troy A. Carter Sr. | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NC-8 · house · election_day · Colby Watson | 10% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 4% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 10% → 4% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-26 · house · election_day · Steven Shook | 3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 3% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-9 · house · election_day · Leticia Gutierrez | 9% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 3% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 9% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-SC-5 · house · election_day · Mallory Dittmer | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-SD-AL · house · election_day · Nicole Gronli | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL-8 · house · election_day · Melissa Bean | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-VA-1 · house · election_day · Shannon Taylor | 46% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 45% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 46% → 45% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-15 · house · election_day · Bobby Pulido | 47% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 44% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 47% → 44% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AL-2 · house · election_day · Shomari Figures | 42% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 38% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 42% → 38% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MN-1 · house · election_day · Jake Johnson | 25% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 17% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 25% → 17% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-KS-3 · house · election_day · Sharice Davids | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CT-2 · house · election_day · Joe Courtney | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NV-4 · house · election_day · Steven Horsford | 97% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 97% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-16 · house · election_day · George Latimer | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MD-3 · house · election_day · Sarah Elfreth | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-12 · house · election_day · Kimberly Overman | 9% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 3% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 9% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IN-6 · house · election_day · Cynthia Wirth | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-PA-6 · house · election_day · Chrissy Houlahan | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MO-7 · house · election_day · Missi Hesketh | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WI-7 · house · election_day · Fred Clark | 9% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 3% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 9% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MA-9 · house · election_day · Bill Keating | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-KY-3 · house · election_day · Morgan McGarvey | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-HI-1 · house · election_day · Ed Case | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-16 · house · election_day · Veronica Escobar | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MD-1 · house · election_day · Dan Schwartz | 8% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 3% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 8% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-15 · house · election_day · Ritchie Torres | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NJ-5 · house · election_day · Josh Gottheimer | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-UT-3 · house · election_day · Kent Udell | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-20 · house · election_day · Debbie Wasserman Schultz | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-45 · house · election_day · Derek Tran | 93% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 97% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 93% → 97% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-30 · house · election_day · Frederick Haynes III | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-25 · house · election_day · Joseph Morelle | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CT-5 · house · election_day · Jahana Hayes | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA-8 · house · election_day · Kelly Esti | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-27 · house · election_day · Tanya Lloyd | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CO-3 · house · election_day · Dwayne Romero | 34% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 28% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 34% → 28% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IA-1 · house · election_day · Christina Bohannan | 63% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 69% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 63% → 69% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-10 · house · election_day · Caitlin Rourk | 5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 5% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-13 · house · election_day · Leela Gray | 32% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 24% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 32% → 24% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH-5 · house · election_day · Brian Shaver | 3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 3% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-VT-AL · house · election_day · Becca Balint | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MS-2 · house · election_day · Bennie Thompson | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-KS-1 · house · election_day · Lauren Reinhold | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-25 · house · election_day · Raul Ruiz | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL-16 · house · election_day · Paul Nolley | 3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 3% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-50 · house · election_day · Scott Peters | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-17 · house · election_day · Matthew Montavon | 3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 3% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MI · senate · election_day · Abdul El-Sayed | 60% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 68% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 60% → 68% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers7249717e-691c-4010-8691-578072634b85 → cc3c3d1a-2a78-4f16-9aef-aa18716e3e9c |
| US-MI · senate · nowcast · Abdul El-Sayed | 59% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 71% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 59% → 71% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0e9635d1-6394-428f-be0c-f9a7dd4e354e → fc6941ca-721f-4c1d-9fa9-da5f3d2a7259 |
| US-CA-46 · house · election_day · Lou Correa | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA · governor · election_day · Keisha Lance Bottoms | 51% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 60% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 51% → 60% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf9057ae7-87ce-4af7-b2eb-69520acfc463 → 6c39f731-8c3d-45bc-831e-c0e8738b6c37 |
| US-GA · governor · nowcast · Keisha Lance Bottoms | 35% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 48% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 35% → 48% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers65747850-0373-4312-b9b6-fc9ca22f6c10 → 7b3f7375-f53f-4ac7-a0a9-93fffd9915aa |
| US-WY-AL · house · election_day · Lisa F. Kinney | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NH-2 · house · election_day · Maggie Goodlander | 97% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 97% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA-13 · house · election_day · Jasmine Clark | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CO-2 · house · election_day · Joe Neguse | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NJ-1 · house · election_day · Donald Norcross | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL-6 · house · election_day · Sean Casten | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MA · governor · election_day · Maura Healey | >99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | >99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers777cdaf9-a7b1-414d-a384-9145f8bd1515 → 6a4b20ce-85ca-40fc-8f0f-54f59a2bbd5a |
| US-MA · governor · nowcast · Maura Healey | >99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | >99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers1b0cd334-d741-4e11-9d0b-dabf0e70aed0 → 11e40424-0232-428d-98aa-cd2293072eaa |
| US-NV-3 · house · election_day · Susie Lee | 89% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 95% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 89% → 95% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WA-9 · house · election_day · Adam Smith | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-10 · house · election_day · Mark DeSaulnier | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-KY · senate · election_day · Charles Booker | 8% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 9% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 8% → 9% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers5dc5a8dc-f814-459f-8a89-5ce660733aca → 0fa2c8fc-02a9-4150-b2ed-c812691743dd |
| US-KY · senate · nowcast · Charles Booker | 7% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 9% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 7% → 9% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers29cbe7bd-8342-422e-8e46-9eab59a7a580 → 5ebd65e0-536c-499a-a894-ec18828063d2 |
| US-WI-8 · house · election_day · Rick Crosson | 12% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 6% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 12% → 6% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WI · governor · election_day · David Crowley | 64% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 73% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 64% → 73% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersb6edd7ff-ac98-4a47-822f-a91701a2fb8a → 22f46bec-f328-4798-9eeb-7e2d5b712f46 |
| US-WI · governor · nowcast · David Crowley | 66% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 77% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 66% → 77% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers36257b81-3fae-4b56-b681-e778d935c92c → 4695e200-fbca-472c-8d82-19ff31b458e8 |
| US-GA-4 · house · election_day · Hank Johnson | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY · governor · election_day · Kathy Hochul | 96% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 98% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 96% → 98% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers97680b31-6fda-4c1d-82fa-bbc03fb094c4 → 62ad510d-b524-4194-9cc4-ec0b4ebe27c7 |
| US-NY · governor · nowcast · Kathy Hochul | 97% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 98% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 97% → 98% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersfe0627c3-8f49-4b72-92b1-e344f1605e85 → c21335e2-fb5a-47a8-8a87-d5b1e6e7b7ec |
| US-CO-6 · house · election_day · Jason Crow | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MI-1 · house · election_day · Callie Barr | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-PA-14 · house · election_day · Alan Bradstock | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-ME · governor · election_day · Hannah Pingree | 95% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 97% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 95% → 97% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersc30c0425-02c3-4f4d-8640-2350f19ea39e → 101d5e91-6f16-41b6-9b7d-9e21841cd5bc |
| US-ME · governor · nowcast · Hannah Pingree | 97% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 98% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 97% → 98% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersed20daed-fd01-4351-a9e9-bb27a4b3fda9 → 9229f21c-7144-4789-b254-5f91a97b777b |
| US-CT-1 · house · election_day · Luke Bronin | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-24 · house · election_day · Salud Carbajal | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA-9 · house · election_day · Caitlyn Gegan | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OK-4 · house · election_day · Mitchell Jacob | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-OH-6 · house · election_day · Elizabeth Kirtley | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-31 · house · election_day · Justin Early | 7% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 7% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WY · governor · election_day · Kenneth Casner | <1% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z | <1% 2026-10-12T19:57:11Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersf56df86a-f4a2-4184-8e8c-a42df92d5e19 → 06af337b-8c9b-4b1c-af4a-3043387b8482 |
| US-TX-3 · house · election_day · Evan Hunt | 4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 4% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CO-4 · house · election_day · Eileen Laubacher | 8% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 3% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 8% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IN-9 · house · election_day · Brad Meyer | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-6 · house · election_day · Danny Minton | 5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 2% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 5% → 2% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AZ-2 · house · election_day · Jonathan Nez | 24% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 15% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 24% → 15% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-GA-7 · house · election_day · Anthony Kozycki | 8% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 3% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 8% → 3% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-PA · governor · election_day · Josh Shapiro | 99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | >99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers29d4192a-34ec-4c95-abcd-afe0205aa02a → ee34d609-6209-4695-8085-7b3bdc7dc42f |
| US-PA · governor · nowcast · Josh Shapiro | >99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | >99% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers88de8d67-8b5b-4111-9059-bde9e4dac2be → 2bf32389-98b4-4777-b757-c3a5774e62af |
| US-NJ-10 · house · election_day · LaMonica McIver | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MD-4 · house · election_day · Glenn Ivey | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NJ-11 · house · election_day · Analilia Mejia | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IL-10 · house · election_day · Brad Schneider | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-IN-4 · house · election_day · Drew Cox | 1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WI-1 · house · election_day · Mitchell Berman | 31% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 23% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 31% → 23% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-10 · house · election_day · Brad Lander | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-6 · house · election_day · Richard Pan | 50% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 50% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-19 · house · election_day · Kyle Rable | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WV-2 · house · election_day · Ace Parsi | <1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | <1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TN-9 · house · election_day · Justin J. Pearson | 18% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 9% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 18% → 9% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MI-11 · house · election_day · Jeremy Moss | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-FL-7 · house · election_day · Bale Dalton | 64% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 71% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 64% → 71% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MN · governor · election_day · Amy Klobuchar | 92% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 94% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 92% → 94% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiersdd71f5c9-17ff-4e13-a328-588c3c203379 → be0b75df-b8b3-478f-8c24-e415cdbeb295 |
| US-MN · governor · nowcast · Amy Klobuchar | 92% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z | 95% 2026-10-12T07:11:55Z | Displayed 92% → 95% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers7a3e6d1c-6c65-4bef-ae37-5fe1eee131ea → f1f7e845-9c9f-4fbf-bb46-5f0bb1fa3bda |
| US-IL-2 · house · election_day · Donna Miller | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-42 · house · election_day · Robert Garcia | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CA-8 · house · election_day · John Garamendi | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-TX-18 · house · election_day · Christian Menefee | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-MI-8 · house · election_day · Kristen McDonald Rivet | 96% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 96% → 99% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-11 · house · election_day · Michael DeCillis | 2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 1% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 2% → 1% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-WA-8 · house · election_day · Kim Schrier | 99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-AZ-8 · house · election_day · Bernadette Greene-Placentia | 10% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | 4% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Displayed 10% → 4% | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-NY-26 · house · election_day · Tim Kennedy | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |
| US-CT-4 · house · election_day · Jim Himes | >99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z | >99% 2026-10-12T16:30:24Z | Unchanged at displayed precision | Model version changed; causal attribution unavailableRun identifiers0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673 → 5d9c7c03-90a1-4b13-bc11-628b0e8c0919 |