FutureBallotU.S. election forecasts, with every number traced to its source

Latest polls

349 polls in 31 races, newest first. Every poll we hold is listed; none is dropped for being inconvenient.

Newest 60 polls

RaceDatesPollsterSampleResultMargin
Michigan GovernorSep 21–Sep 23co/efficientpartisan sponsor843 LVBenson 47 (D) · James 44 (R)D+3
Pennsylvania GovernorSep 15–Sep 22The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University615 LVShapiro 58 (D) · Garrity 38 (R)D+20
Connecticut GovernorSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire540 LVLamont 55 (D) · Fazio 38 (R)D+17
Maine GovernorSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire1312 LVPingree 48 (D) · Charles 40 (R) · Bennett 5 (I)D+8
Massachusetts GovernorSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire564 LVHealey 54 (D) · Minogue 38 (R)D+16
New Hampshire GovernorSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire1418 LVAyotte 47 (R) · Warmington 43 (D)R+4
Rhode Island GovernorSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire598 LVFoulkes 44 (D) · Block 25 (I) · Guckian 17 (R)D+19
Vermont GovernorSep 17–Sep 21University of New Hampshire829 LVJanoo 49 (D) · Scott 43 (R)D+6
Michigan GovernorSep 16–Sep 20Suffolk University500 LVBenson 51 (D) · James 34 (R)D+17
California GovernorSep 15–Sep 20Berkeley IGS4512 LVBecerra 58 (D) · Hilton 33 (R)D+25
California GovernorSep 15–Sep 20SurveyUSA742 LVBecerra 55 (D) · Hilton 33 (R)D+22
Iowa GovernorSep 17–Sep 20Marist College1050 RVSand 54 (D) · Lahn 42 (R)D+12
New York GovernorSep 17–Sep 20Quinnipiac University1026 LVHochul 58 (D) · Blakeman 39 (R)D+19
Texas GovernorSep 17–Sep 20Marist University1139 RVHinojosa 49 (D) · Abbott 46 (R)D+3
Texas GovernorSep 15–Sep 19Texas Southern University1800 LVAbbott 49 (R) · Hinojosa 45 (D)R+4
Georgia GovernorSep 15–Sep 18YouGov3414 RVJackson 45 (R) · Bottoms 44 (D)R+1
Connecticut GovernorSep 16–Sep 17co/efficient979 LVLamont 48 (D) · Fazio 41 (R)D+7
New York GovernorSep 11–Sep 17Siena College1144 LVHochul 50 (D) · Blakeman 41 (R)D+9
Alaska GovernorSep 14–Sep 17co/efficientpartisan sponsor799 LVKreiss-Tomkins 43 (D) · Wilson 20 (R) · Bronson 17 (R)D+23
Florida GovernorSep 15–Sep 17St. Pete Polls913 LVDonalds 44 (R) · Jolly 43 (D)R+1
Iowa GovernorSep 14–Sep 16co/efficientpartisan sponsor831 LVSand 46 (D) · Lahn 42 (R)D+4
Idaho GovernorSep 13–Sep 16Advanced Targeting Research700 RVLittle 37 (R) · Pickens 27 (D) · Stegner 13 (I)R+10
Kansas GovernorSep 15–Sep 16Emerson College750 LVMasterson 51 (R) · Holscher 44 (D)R+7
Nebraska GovernorSep 14–Sep 16Wedgewood Polls500 LVPillen 53 (R) · Walz 36 (D)R+17
Minnesota GovernorSep 14–Sep 15co/efficientpartisan sponsor833 LVKlobuchar 47 (D) · Demuth 45 (R)D+2
Michigan GovernorSep 12–Sep 14Emerson College1000 LVBenson 49 (D) · James 42 (R)D+7
Michigan GovernorSep 10–Sep 14The Washington Post/SSPG803 LVBenson 53 (D) · James 41 (R)D+12
Connecticut GovernorSep 8–Sep 14Quinnipiac University Polling Institute1288 LVLamont 55 (D) · Fazio 38 (R)D+17
Maine GovernorAug 28–Sep 14University of Massachusetts/YouGov650 LVPingree 49 (D) · Charles 38 (R)D+11
Texas GovernorSep 12–Sep 14Emerson College1000 LVAbbott 49 (R) · Hinojosa 46 (D)R+3
Georgia GovernorSep 14Rasmussen Reportspartisan sponsor1019 LVJackson 48 (R) · Bottoms 45 (D)R+3
Minnesota GovernorSep 9–Sep 14KSTP/SurveyUSA654 LVKlobuchar 47 (D) · Demuth 40 (R)D+7
Texas GovernorSep 12–Sep 13SoCal Strategiespartisan sponsor649 LVAbbott 52 (R) · Hinojosa 44 (D)R+8
Nebraska GovernorSep 8–Sep 13SurveyUSA503 LVPillen 43 (R) · Walz 35 (D)R+8
New Hampshire GovernorSep 9–Sep 11co/efficientpartisan sponsor958 LVAyotte 55 (R) · Warmington 34 (D)R+21
Iowa GovernorSep 9–Sep 11Cygnalpartisan sponsor500 LVSand 48 (D) · Lahn 44 (R)D+4
Texas GovernorSep 8–Sep 11ReconMR/Siena University614 LVHinojosa 49 (D) · Abbott 45 (R)D+4
Alaska GovernorSep 8–Sep 11Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Researchpartisan sponsor800 LVKreiss-Tomkins 40 (D) · Wilson 20 (R) · Bronson 14 (R)D+20
California GovernorSep 4–Sep 10PPIC1103 LVBecerra 60 (D) · Hilton 38 (R)D+22
Texas GovernorSep 8–Sep 10Mason-Dixon625 LVAbbott 48 (R) · Hinojosa 41 (D)R+7
Kansas GovernorSep 8–Sep 10co/efficientpartisan sponsor915 LVMasterson 51 (R) · Holscher 43 (D)R+8
Ohio GovernorSep 1–Sep 10Bowling Green State University/YouGov1000 LVActon 48 (D) · Ramaswamy 45 (R)D+3
Florida GovernorSep 7–Sep 9Change Researchpartisan sponsor1107 LVJolly 47 (D) · Donalds 44 (R)D+3
Oregon GovernorSep 3–Sep 9DHM Research600 LVDrazan 45 (R) · Kotek 43 (D)R+2
Connecticut GovernorSep 1–Sep 8GreatBlue Research1000 RVLamont 48 (D) · Fazio 34 (R)D+14
Maine GovernorSep 2–Sep 8YouGov1335 LVPingree 47 (D) · Charles 36 (R) · Bennett 2 (I)D+11
Iowa GovernorSep 3–Sep 8YouGov2169 RVSand 50 (D) · Lahn 39 (R)D+11
Nevada GovernorSep 5–Sep 8Emerson College680 LVFord 44 (D) · Lombardo 42 (R)D+2
Michigan GovernorAug 31–Sep 6SSRS843 LVBenson 50 (D) · James 41 (R)D+9
Maine GovernorAug 31–Sep 6SSRS880 LVPingree 52 (D) · Charles 39 (R)D+13
Texas GovernorAug 27–Sep 4Univision/YouGov1000 RVAbbott 47 (R) · Hinojosa 47 (D)Even
Michigan GovernorAug 31–Sep 3Glengariff600 LVBenson 47 (D) · James 43 (R)D+4
Minnesota GovernorAug 31–Sep 2TIPP Insights1494 RVKlobuchar 47 (D) · Demuth 37 (R)D+10
Iowa GovernorAug 31–Sep 1Emerson College750 LVSand 49 (D) · Lahn 46 (R)D+3
Texas GovernorAug 30–Sep 1Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Researchpartisan sponsor895 LVAbbott 49 (R) · Hinojosa 46 (D)R+3
New York GovernorAug 27–Aug 31McLaughlin & Associatespartisan sponsor800 LVHochul 50 (D) · Blakeman 46 (R)D+4
Iowa GovernorAug 27–Aug 29Wedgewood Polls600 LVSand 51 (D) · Lahn 46 (R)D+5
Michigan GovernorAug 22–Aug 28EPIC-MRA600 LVBenson 48 (D) · James 44 (R)D+4
New Mexico GovernorAug 21–Aug 28Research & Polling Inc.516 LVHaaland 49 (D) · Hull 43 (R)D+6
Texas GovernorAug 24–Aug 26Overton Insightspartisan sponsor1167 LVAbbott 51 (R) · Hinojosa 49 (D)R+2

Polling averages by race

Simple average: the plain mean Democrat-minus-Republican margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one. Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean and for partisan sponsors. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House districts have no nowcast; their forecasts come from the district model, not from these polls.

RacePollsLatestSimple average
last 30 days (n)
Adjusted average
our nowcast
Florida Governor19Sep 17D+1 (2)R+4forecast →
Georgia Governor10Sep 18R+2 (2)R+1forecast →
Ohio Governor20Sep 10D+2 (2)R+1forecast →
Oregon Governor4Sep 9R+2 (1)R+2forecast →
Nevada Governor12Sep 8D+2 (1)R+6forecast →
Texas Governor33Sep 20R+3 (10)R+6forecast →
Wisconsin Governor5Aug 20D+4 (4)D+2forecast →
Arkansas Governor1Aug 12R+5 (1)R+11forecast →
Vermont Governor3Sep 21D+6 (1)R+16forecast →
Iowa Governor11Sep 20D+6 (7)D+5forecast →
Arizona Governor20Aug 19D+7 (9)D+5forecast →
Kansas Governor3Sep 16R+8 (2)R+5forecast →
Michigan Governor30Sep 23D+8 (7)D+6forecast →
South Carolina Governor2Aug 15R+8 (2)R+12forecast →
Alabama Governor2Jul 11R+8 (1)R+21forecast →
Minnesota Governor7Sep 15D+8 (4)D+8forecast →
Idaho Governor2Sep 16R+10 (1)R+23forecast →
Maine Governor7Sep 21D+11 (4)D+10forecast →
New Mexico Governor3Aug 28D+12 (2)D+7forecast →
New Hampshire Governor8Sep 21R+12 (3)R+11forecast →
New York Governor23Sep 20D+12 (4)D+11forecast →
Nebraska Governor6Sep 16R+12 (2)R+11forecast →
Tennessee Governor3Aug 26R+13 (1)R+25forecast →
Connecticut Governor7Sep 21D+14 (5)D+14forecast →
Massachusetts Governor9Sep 21D+20 (2)D+22forecast →
Illinois Governor1Nov 24D+20 (1)D+18forecast →
Pennsylvania Governor15Sep 22D+22 (2)D+19forecast →
California Governor64Sep 20D+23 (3)D+21forecast →
Rhode Island Governor6Sep 21D+26 (3)D+20forecast →
Maryland Governor1Aug 3D+27 (1)D+28forecast →
Alaska Governor12Sep 17—D+7forecast →