Published forecasts: 2026-10-11

Last published snapshot for this Pacific day. These records were published at the time; no reconstructed forecasts are added.

Compared with the previous available closed day, 2026-10-10. Dates may be more than one day apart.

2026-10-10: race records · chamber records · file hashes
2026-10-11: race records · chamber records · file hashes

Chambers

Stored party-control bounds; unavailable values stay unavailable. The linked downloads retain model versions and run identifiers.

Chambers
Chamber / product	Earlier	Later
governors · election_day	D 56%–56%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	D 56%–56%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z
governors · nowcast	D 49%–49%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	D 49%–49%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z
house · election_day	D 94%–94%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	D 89%–89%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z
senate · election_day	D 37%–45%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	D 37%–45%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z
senate · nowcast	D 43%–50%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	D 43%–50%; R Unavailable–Unavailable; neither Unavailable; 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z

Races

Changes refer to the displayed, rounded percentages. Exact probabilities are in the downloads. Candidate changes are separate rows. A poll appearing between runs is not proof it caused a move. Poll arrivals, money and candidate events are not captured by these forecast files; the model and correction record provides other context.

Races
Race and subject	Earlier chance / run time	Later chance / run time	Change	Context
US-LA-6 · house · election_day · Democratic Party	13% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	14% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 13% → 14%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-22 · house · election_day · Marquette Greene-Scott	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 4% → 5%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NC-4 · house · election_day · Valerie Foushee	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OR · senate · election_day · Jeff Merkley	98% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	98% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers ba474f0b-a2cc-4b14-96b3-502c2ccae06a → ba474f0b-a2cc-4b14-96b3-502c2ccae06a
US-VA · senate · election_day · Mark Warner	96% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	96% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers e7e18438-97f9-4b47-88ec-3f2b19fa2192 → e7e18438-97f9-4b47-88ec-3f2b19fa2192
US-VA · senate · nowcast · Mark Warner	97% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	97% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers dc8bdc43-c905-4ac5-9bdb-a481186cde68 → dc8bdc43-c905-4ac5-9bdb-a481186cde68
US-OH-4 · house · election_day · Joshua Kolasinski	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WA-3 · house · election_day · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	41% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	40% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 41% → 40%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NC-14 · house · election_day · LaKesha Womack	16% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	16% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OK-5 · house · election_day · Jena Nelson	13% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	13% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MN-7 · house · election_day · Erik Osberg	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MT · senate · election_day · Seth Bodnar	1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers f5388630-7941-4fe7-bc3a-be8f045a0090 → f5388630-7941-4fe7-bc3a-be8f045a0090
US-MT · senate · nowcast · Seth Bodnar	<1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers ef1a62f4-1e23-46c5-ae84-5797a3b970f7 → ef1a62f4-1e23-46c5-ae84-5797a3b970f7
US-CA-20 · house · election_day · Sandra Van Scotter	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AL-5 · house · election_day · Andrew Sneed	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NC-1 · house · election_day · Don Davis	76% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	75% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 76% → 75%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH-7 · house · election_day · Brian Poindexter	66% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	65% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 66% → 65%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OK-2 · house · election_day · Brandon Wade	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NC-12 · house · election_day · Alma Adams	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TN · governor · election_day · Jerri Green	1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 137ccfc9-060d-4b0e-beee-9272e9691a07 → 137ccfc9-060d-4b0e-beee-9272e9691a07
US-TN · governor · nowcast · Jerri Green	1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 7a12bda3-f8ae-4958-883e-fe62c0ab55ed → 7a12bda3-f8ae-4958-883e-fe62c0ab55ed
US-ID-2 · house · election_day · Ellie Gilbreath	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AZ-4 · house · election_day · Greg Stanton	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NC-9 · house · election_day · Richard Ojeda	23% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	23% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IA-2 · house · election_day · Lindsay James	50% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	49% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 50% → 49%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-38 · house · election_day · Melissa McDonough	6% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-5 · house · election_day · Gregory Meeks	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AR-4 · house · election_day · James Russell	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL · senate · election_day · Angie Nixon	10% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	10% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 195b9b05-429c-45c5-8752-3b9958be6c2d → 195b9b05-429c-45c5-8752-3b9958be6c2d
US-FL · senate · nowcast · Angie Nixon	7% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	7% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers cb73e6fe-c90b-417f-837d-e882249c665f → cb73e6fe-c90b-417f-837d-e882249c665f
US-MN-5 · house · election_day · Ilhan Omar	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-28 · house · election_day · Henry Cuellar	68% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	67% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 68% → 67%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NV-2 · house · election_day · Teresa Benitez-Thompson	39% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	38% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 39% → 38%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-4 · house · election_day · Jason Pearce	3% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX · governor · election_day · Gina Hinojosa	19% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	19% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 995c71fd-ecf8-4641-b5a7-611d4fc36029 → 995c71fd-ecf8-4641-b5a7-611d4fc36029
US-TX · governor · nowcast · Gina Hinojosa	18% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	18% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 43db8778-4bf6-4707-9eac-32781ba8db98 → 43db8778-4bf6-4707-9eac-32781ba8db98
US-MA-8 · house · election_day · Stephen Lynch	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NC-13 · house · election_day · Paul Barringer	11% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	12% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 11% → 12%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-7 · house · election_day · Claire Valdez	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-ND-AL · house · election_day · Trygve Hammer	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL-9 · house · election_day · Daniel Biss	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MI-2 · house · election_day · Benjamin Ambrose	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MD-6 · house · election_day · April McClain Delaney	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AL-7 · house · election_day · Terri Sewell	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-33 · house · election_day · Pete Aguilar	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-24 · house · election_day · Oliver Gilbert	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-VA-2 · house · election_day · Elaine Luria	60% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	59% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 60% → 59%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-4 · house · election_day · LaShonda Holloway	17% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	17% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MI-10 · house · election_day · Christina Hines	50% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	49% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 50% → 49%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MN-2 · house · election_day · Matt Little	88% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	87% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 88% → 87%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-8 · house · election_day · Jennifer Jenkins	12% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	12% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-51 · house · election_day · Sara Jacobs	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-16 · house · election_day · Sam Liccardo	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OR-6 · house · election_day · Andrea Salinas	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-VA-10 · house · election_day · Suhas Subramanyam	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-28 · house · election_day · Judy Chu	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL-4 · house · election_day · Patty Garcia	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OR-3 · house · election_day · Maxine Dexter	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NM · governor · election_day · Deb Haaland	87% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	87% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 3bc06438-fcd6-4df4-918a-9eaef080af0b → 3bc06438-fcd6-4df4-918a-9eaef080af0b
US-NM · governor · nowcast · Deb Haaland	86% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	86% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d3c5d5b1-c21c-4e80-b77e-8be5c2c3d1c9 → d3c5d5b1-c21c-4e80-b77e-8be5c2c3d1c9
US-TX-29 · house · election_day · Sylvia Garcia	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OR-5 · house · election_day · Janelle Bynum	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA-3 · house · election_day · Maura Keller	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-5 · house · election_day · Michael Masuda	6% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-21 · house · election_day · Blake Gendebien	34% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	33% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 34% → 33%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-15 · house · election_day · Kevin Mullin	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-27 · house · election_day · Eliott Rodriguez	24% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	24% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MO-1 · house · election_day · Wesley Bell	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-KY-1 · house · election_day · John "Drew" Williams	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-SC-3 · house · election_day · Eunice Lehmacher	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA-14 · house · election_day · Shawn Harris	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-ID · senate · election_day · Todd Achilles	9% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	9% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers a260ddb2-d6aa-414f-bf5a-5866844c61e2 → a260ddb2-d6aa-414f-bf5a-5866844c61e2
US-ID · senate · nowcast · Todd Achilles	8% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	8% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 2b19c027-7294-4c1f-a4f7-a1899ba03ad6 → 2b19c027-7294-4c1f-a4f7-a1899ba03ad6
US-TN-2 · house · election_day · Michaela Barnett	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CO-7 · house · election_day · Brittany Pettersen	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-PA-8 · house · election_day · Paige Cognetti	48% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	47% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 48% → 47%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-KS-2 · house · election_day · Don Coover	6% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-14 · house · election_day · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH · governor · election_day · Amy Acton	58% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	58% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 9179b9fa-7e2e-489d-a5ee-e6a74819575d → 9179b9fa-7e2e-489d-a5ee-e6a74819575d
US-OH · governor · nowcast · Amy Acton	58% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	58% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 9a2adc10-adf9-42fb-9b11-191285ab6100 → 9a2adc10-adf9-42fb-9b11-191285ab6100
US-AR · governor · election_day · Fredrick Love	8% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	8% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers f47919fd-6c75-4041-9067-21876948ec4a → f47919fd-6c75-4041-9067-21876948ec4a
US-AR · governor · nowcast · Fredrick Love	15% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	15% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 2beb88d4-7947-474d-a1c2-d7f94648afbf → 2beb88d4-7947-474d-a1c2-d7f94648afbf
US-MO-6 · house · election_day · Josh Smead	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-KS · senate · election_day · Adam Hamilton	32% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	32% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers af143835-d5c4-46b2-809d-3c7f589043e3 → af143835-d5c4-46b2-809d-3c7f589043e3
US-KS · senate · nowcast · Adam Hamilton	42% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	42% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 9d30b091-9dce-4615-9d5f-ba883526efd2 → 9d30b091-9dce-4615-9d5f-ba883526efd2
US-ME · senate · election_day · Troy Jackson	32% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	32% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 1a53b286-f221-4fa0-a5b3-820b4d296dc0 → 1a53b286-f221-4fa0-a5b3-820b4d296dc0
US-ME · senate · nowcast · Troy Jackson	54% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	54% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d34f7c3e-e1c5-4955-945e-e1c4b1c9f6e6 → d34f7c3e-e1c5-4955-945e-e1c4b1c9f6e6
US-CA-13 · house · election_day · Adam Gray	87% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	86% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 87% → 86%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-17 · house · election_day · Casey Shepard	5% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL-11 · house · election_day · Bill Foster	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-28 · house · election_day · Phil Ehr	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MO-5 · house · election_day · Emanuel Cleaver	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-22 · house · election_day · John Mannion	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MD · governor · election_day · Wes Moore	>99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 0f8ad980-6078-4012-ac7a-08cd96a9d4da → 0f8ad980-6078-4012-ac7a-08cd96a9d4da
US-MD · governor · nowcast · Wes Moore	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers e6faefc0-6a17-4635-a811-d7cf34516f8b → e6faefc0-6a17-4635-a811-d7cf34516f8b
US-CO-5 · house · election_day · Jessica Killin	44% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	43% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 44% → 43%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-2 · house · election_day · Amanda Green	14% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	14% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MA-3 · house · election_day · Lori Trahan	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH-3 · house · election_day · Joyce Beatty	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NH · governor · election_day · Cinde Warmington	7% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	7% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d970397b-c523-4897-af69-ace933301823 → d970397b-c523-4897-af69-ace933301823
US-NH · governor · nowcast · Cinde Warmington	3% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	3% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers f7d27197-67d0-49d7-be2c-c7a970f62d9c → f7d27197-67d0-49d7-be2c-c7a970f62d9c
US-NC-7 · house · election_day · Kimberly Hardy	18% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	18% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WV · senate · election_day · Rachel Fetty Anderson	1% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	1% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 3f42109b-04ee-41ad-ba9c-538072927b7b → 3f42109b-04ee-41ad-ba9c-538072927b7b
US-OK · senate · election_day · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas	1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 5e5937a3-5695-44f8-94df-689bcb33715b → 5e5937a3-5695-44f8-94df-689bcb33715b
US-OK · senate · nowcast · N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas	<1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d6f70a91-7fc9-47f8-91d8-f49fe0169e2c → d6f70a91-7fc9-47f8-91d8-f49fe0169e2c
US-CA-32 · house · election_day · Brad Sherman	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NE · senate · election_day · Dan Osborn	37% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	37% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 8ab2d1d3-5a51-4ecc-bcfa-f92859882355 → 8ab2d1d3-5a51-4ecc-bcfa-f92859882355
US-NE · senate · nowcast · Dan Osborn	35% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	35% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 0c3631a6-2f05-432c-8a7b-be99bacd2b4a → 0c3631a6-2f05-432c-8a7b-be99bacd2b4a
US-TN-1 · house · election_day · Kristi Burke	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-12 · house · election_day · Angela Rodriguez Prilliman	3% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MS-4 · house · election_day · Jeffrey Hulum III	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OK-1 · house · election_day · John Croisant	6% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WA-2 · house · election_day · Rick Larsen	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-SC-7 · house · election_day · John Vincent	6% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OK-3 · house · election_day · Suzie Byrd	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-ID · governor · election_day · Terri Pickens	1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 58fdb2e1-852a-4ccb-a648-f275d03fc15a → 58fdb2e1-852a-4ccb-a648-f275d03fc15a
US-ID · governor · nowcast · Terri Pickens	2% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	2% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 2558ea2e-9f78-4642-808a-5e267c0856e2 → 2558ea2e-9f78-4642-808a-5e267c0856e2
US-TX-8 · house · election_day · Laura Jones	3% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 3% → 4%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA-1 · house · election_day · Amanda Hollowell	15% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	16% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 15% → 16%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-UT-1 · house · election_day · Ben McAdams	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL · senate · election_day · Juliana Stratton	94% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	94% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers eb010c2e-31f1-4563-9c5f-2348fb4e7505 → eb010c2e-31f1-4563-9c5f-2348fb4e7505
US-IL · senate · nowcast · Juliana Stratton	90% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	90% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 3f765f0a-65b4-45b6-b5ee-d500fb56ce48 → 3f765f0a-65b4-45b6-b5ee-d500fb56ce48
US-ME-1 · house · election_day · Chellie Pingree	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-PA-2 · house · election_day · Brendan Boyle	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH · senate · election_day · Sherrod Brown	64% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	64% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers b42b4601-75f3-4173-91d6-0cf33e15ce7c → b42b4601-75f3-4173-91d6-0cf33e15ce7c
US-OH · senate · nowcast · Sherrod Brown	63% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	63% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers e4f94114-4340-44a4-a9e4-80f119a94c8d → e4f94114-4340-44a4-a9e4-80f119a94c8d
US-CA-23 · house · election_day · Tessa Lynn Hodge	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WA-7 · house · election_day · Pramila Jayapal	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MN-6 · house · election_day · Doug Chapin	6% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	7% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 6% → 7%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-1 · house · election_day · Chris Gallant	27% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	27% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AZ-7 · house · election_day · Adelita Grijalva	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CT-3 · house · election_day · Rosa DeLauro	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-PA-4 · house · election_day · Madeleine Dean	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-23 · house · election_day · Aaron Gies	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NJ-6 · house · election_day · Frank Pallone	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-2 · house · election_day · Shaun Finnie	6% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-UT-2 · house · election_day · Peter Crosby	12% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	12% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-KY-5 · house · election_day · Ned Pillersdorf	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-16 · house · election_day · Kelly Kirschner	35% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	35% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL-5 · house · election_day · Mike Quigley	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MS-3 · house · election_day · Michael Chiaradio	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH-15 · house · election_day · Don Leonard	38% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	38% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MA-4 · house · election_day · Jake Auchincloss	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-11 · house · election_day · James Pericola	25% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	25% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-14 · house · election_day · Thurman Bartie	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-ME-2 · house · election_day · Matthew Dunlap	37% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	36% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 37% → 36%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IA · governor · election_day · Rob Sand	79% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	79% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers f6f98a8f-75bf-4522-beb3-f9191665a110 → f6f98a8f-75bf-4522-beb3-f9191665a110
US-IA · governor · nowcast · Rob Sand	89% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	89% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers a8c0857e-ef29-4591-8e31-1644690e051f → a8c0857e-ef29-4591-8e31-1644690e051f
US-PA-10 · house · election_day · Janelle Stelson	63% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	61% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 63% → 61%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-RI · governor · election_day · Helena Foulkes	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 2779090f-23dd-45df-a6b3-be8a393b0d32 → 2779090f-23dd-45df-a6b3-be8a393b0d32
US-RI · governor · nowcast · Helena Foulkes	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 33386600-354a-4419-8a2e-48b1f75ed56b → 33386600-354a-4419-8a2e-48b1f75ed56b
US-FL-6 · house · election_day · Eric Yonce	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CT · governor · election_day · Ned Lamont	98% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	98% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 49d7f6c9-bbc3-4311-bd72-0f5b9701cde1 → 49d7f6c9-bbc3-4311-bd72-0f5b9701cde1
US-CT · governor · nowcast · Ned Lamont	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 71928c4c-c513-49b3-a985-b2574e2a076d → 71928c4c-c513-49b3-a985-b2574e2a076d
US-AL · senate · election_day · Everett Wess	2% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	2% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers f94a142c-442f-4751-aabc-8209b39bb633 → f94a142c-442f-4751-aabc-8209b39bb633
US-AL · senate · nowcast · Everett Wess	2% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	2% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers e2d6d52b-f100-4286-9c31-20a2c0ba5663 → e2d6d52b-f100-4286-9c31-20a2c0ba5663
US-FL-5 · house · election_day · Rachel Grage	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 4% → 5%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AL-4 · house · election_day · Amanda Pusczek	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MN · senate · election_day · Peggy Flanagan	81% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	81% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 115f45f6-5674-4609-b077-2e4599eefb0e → 115f45f6-5674-4609-b077-2e4599eefb0e
US-MN · senate · nowcast · Peggy Flanagan	66% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	66% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d68bf357-e5e7-44f8-b8a0-64c9582ab376 → d68bf357-e5e7-44f8-b8a0-64c9582ab376
US-TN-7 · house · election_day · Darden Copeland	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-15 · house · election_day · Robert People	7% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	8% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 7% → 8%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-43 · house · election_day · Maxine Waters	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CO · governor · election_day · Phil Weiser	95% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	95% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 283d4402-a3e5-477e-9671-c367024b62b1 → 283d4402-a3e5-477e-9671-c367024b62b1
US-WI-6 · house · election_day · Brad Smith	2% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MD-7 · house · election_day · Kweisi Mfume	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MN-3 · house · election_day · Kelly Morrison	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-32 · house · election_day · Dan Barrios	14% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	15% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 14% → 15%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TN-4 · house · election_day · Victoria Broderick	6% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MD-2 · house · election_day · Johnny Olszewski	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TN-8 · house · election_day · Heidi Kuhn	5% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NE-3 · house · election_day · Becky Stille	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MS · senate · election_day · Scott Colom	11% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	11% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers cdb1e06e-41dd-4365-8a95-475989fe5a40 → cdb1e06e-41dd-4365-8a95-475989fe5a40
US-MS · senate · nowcast · Scott Colom	16% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	16% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 1fe5e515-eb5c-407b-8870-7cf634b917bf → 1fe5e515-eb5c-407b-8870-7cf634b917bf
US-NM-3 · house · election_day · Teresa Leger Fernández	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NJ-2 · house · election_day · Zack Mullock	16% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	17% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 16% → 17%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-KY-2 · house · election_day · Megan Wingfield	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL-14 · house · election_day · Lauren Underwood	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-34 · house · election_day · Vicente Gonzalez	60% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	58% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 60% → 58%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX · senate · election_day · James Talarico	49% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	49% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers ee126414-a158-4932-9e01-61b150cd5587 → ee126414-a158-4932-9e01-61b150cd5587
US-TX · senate · nowcast · James Talarico	59% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	59% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 02b4ec15-1775-4dc2-9fac-8d3bb7571009 → 02b4ec15-1775-4dc2-9fac-8d3bb7571009
US-OH-13 · house · election_day · Emilia Sykes	98% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	98% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL · governor · election_day · David Jolly	16% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	16% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers e88bab3e-dc25-481e-b677-171f5123931a → e88bab3e-dc25-481e-b677-171f5123931a
US-FL · governor · nowcast · David Jolly	11% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	11% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers f0b99925-8735-4864-93e4-5defbe24ff56 → f0b99925-8735-4864-93e4-5defbe24ff56
US-MI-13 · house · election_day · Donavan McKinney	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NJ-12 · house · election_day · Adam Hamawy	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-SC-6 · house · election_day · Jim Clyburn	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH-9 · house · election_day · Marcy Kaptur	57% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	55% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 57% → 55%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WI-3 · house · election_day · Rebecca Cooke	53% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	52% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 53% → 52%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NE-2 · house · election_day · Denise Powell	81% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	80% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 81% → 80%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-VA-3 · house · election_day · Bobby Scott	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-VA-6 · house · election_day · Beth Macy	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-22 · house · election_day · Randy Villegas	52% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	51% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 52% → 51%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH-8 · house · election_day · Vanessa Enoch	14% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	15% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 14% → 15%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AZ · governor · election_day · Katie Hobbs	89% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	89% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 31fc6b8d-ae13-4ac2-926e-f3ae92547862 → 31fc6b8d-ae13-4ac2-926e-f3ae92547862
US-AZ · governor · nowcast · Katie Hobbs	85% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	85% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers e3b2940b-6b76-4b72-a613-87a6ceb001aa → e3b2940b-6b76-4b72-a613-87a6ceb001aa
US-VT · governor · election_day · Amanda Janoo	6% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	6% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d9152e17-3022-4d64-9345-7d25a549100b → d9152e17-3022-4d64-9345-7d25a549100b
US-VT · governor · nowcast · Amanda Janoo	8% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	8% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 79a56bfb-c72f-44e2-bf92-4b8a9a6b4084 → 79a56bfb-c72f-44e2-bf92-4b8a9a6b4084
US-MI-6 · house · election_day · Debbie Dingell	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MI-7 · house · election_day · William Lawrence	52% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	50% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 52% → 50%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IN-3 · house · election_day · Kelly Thompson	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WA-5 · house · election_day · Carmela Conroy	13% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	13% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-LA · senate · election_day · Jamie Davis	5% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	5% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 0b3495dd-fdb9-45b4-9148-b3756e363ada → 0b3495dd-fdb9-45b4-9148-b3756e363ada
US-LA · senate · nowcast · Jamie Davis	6% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	6% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers ced0cf7e-fa36-44c7-8149-c16e445974d2 → ced0cf7e-fa36-44c7-8149-c16e445974d2
US-NE · governor · election_day · Lynne Walz	12% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	12% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 8ddb0cef-5620-463f-b927-b715f434a4b6 → 8ddb0cef-5620-463f-b927-b715f434a4b6
US-NE · governor · nowcast · Lynne Walz	11% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	11% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 8b3bf60a-e44c-4a38-a900-3164e604a1d4 → 8b3bf60a-e44c-4a38-a900-3164e604a1d4
US-TX-1 · house · election_day · Yolanda Prince	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-39 · house · election_day · Mark Takano	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-35 · house · election_day · Johnny Garcia	53% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	52% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 53% → 52%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-PA-9 · house · election_day · Rachel Wallace	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NC-11 · house · election_day · Jamie Ager	68% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	66% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 68% → 66%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MT-2 · house · election_day · Brian Miller	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NC-5 · house · election_day · Chuck Hubbard	14% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	15% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 14% → 15%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MI-3 · house · election_day · Hillary Scholten	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA-11 · house · election_day · Chris Harden	18% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	18% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-13 · house · election_day · Mark Nair	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-KS · governor · election_day · Cindy Holscher	25% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	25% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d6ce7084-aa23-43bc-bbad-f25780a15d9f → d6ce7084-aa23-43bc-bbad-f25780a15d9f
US-KS · governor · nowcast · Cindy Holscher	16% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	16% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 3487dcb4-2aa1-4927-89f9-14049416b625 → 3487dcb4-2aa1-4927-89f9-14049416b625
US-AL-6 · house · election_day · Maurice Mercer	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NE-1 · house · election_day · Chris Backemeyer	19% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	18% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 19% → 18%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WI-5 · house · election_day · Andrew Beck	3% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-HI · governor · election_day · Josh Green	99% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	99% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d1089616-c567-4bbb-94d4-b3f6b6e149ed → d1089616-c567-4bbb-94d4-b3f6b6e149ed
US-FL-21 · house · election_day · James Martin	6% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	7% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 6% → 7%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-25 · house · election_day · Dione Sims	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WA-4 · house · election_day · John Duresky	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-48 · house · election_day · Marni von Wilpert	72% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	78% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 72% → 78%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-9 · house · election_day · Darren Soto	51% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	50% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 51% → 50%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-2 · house · election_day · Patrick Halpin	9% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	9% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-2 · house · election_day · Jared Huffman	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IN-8 · house · election_day · Mary Allen	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-RI-2 · house · election_day · Seth Magaziner	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH-1 · house · election_day · Greg Landsman	83% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	82% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 83% → 82%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WY · senate · election_day · James W. Byrd	<1% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	<1% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 31d64219-09e2-4f4c-aff1-73b408cd61ad → 31d64219-09e2-4f4c-aff1-73b408cd61ad
US-CA-18 · house · election_day · Zoe Lofgren	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-47 · house · election_day · Dave Min	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-UT-4 · house · election_day · Jonny Larsen	2% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL-13 · house · election_day · Nikki Budzinski	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NC · senate · election_day · Roy Cooper	92% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	92% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 4a22a621-88fd-4ab4-bd33-41ab2e1bedd1 → 4a22a621-88fd-4ab4-bd33-41ab2e1bedd1
US-NC · senate · nowcast · Roy Cooper	94% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	94% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers aeda5e3a-da4b-4e4c-83f3-75adbaa6a2f1 → aeda5e3a-da4b-4e4c-83f3-75adbaa6a2f1
US-NV-1 · house · election_day · Dina Titus	95% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	94% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 95% → 94%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-4 · house · election_day · Laura Gillen	93% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	92% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 93% → 92%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NJ-4 · house · election_day · Rachel Peace	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OR · governor · election_day · Tina Kotek	72% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	72% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 3bbc3048-d8c2-4cac-908a-1b33bfd5c14d → 3bbc3048-d8c2-4cac-908a-1b33bfd5c14d
US-OR · governor · nowcast · Tina Kotek	44% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	44% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 2f9f02fe-5d3d-4216-8094-686fe8346724 → 2f9f02fe-5d3d-4216-8094-686fe8346724
US-SC · governor · election_day · Jermaine Johnson	17% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	17% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 858959c6-f95f-41e0-8875-678c257a984d → 858959c6-f95f-41e0-8875-678c257a984d
US-SC · governor · nowcast · Jermaine Johnson	12% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	12% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d29d4730-ff8a-4450-a179-e8319277af2f → d29d4730-ff8a-4450-a179-e8319277af2f
US-AZ-3 · house · election_day · Yassamin Ansari	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MN-8 · house · election_day · Trina Swanson	11% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	12% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 11% → 12%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA-6 · house · election_day · Lucy McBath	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-SD · senate · election_day · Brian Bengs	14% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	14% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 58e502c8-aab6-42fc-8f74-a68201eae8ca → 58e502c8-aab6-42fc-8f74-a68201eae8ca
US-SD · senate · nowcast · Brian Bengs	11% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	11% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 34ae136b-5ce4-41bd-9ab6-4e4ecba4d716 → 34ae136b-5ce4-41bd-9ab6-4e4ecba4d716
US-ID-1 · house · election_day · Kaylee Peterson	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH-2 · house · election_day · Jennifer Mazzuckelli	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-1 · house · election_day · Gay Valimont	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-31 · house · election_day · Gil Cisneros	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-HI-2 · house · election_day · Jill Tokuda	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-VA-8 · house · election_day · Don Beyer	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CO-1 · house · election_day · Melat Kiros	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-PA-11 · house · election_day · Nancy Mannion	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AR · senate · election_day · Hallie Shoffner	3% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	3% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 3ac25d15-6c03-40cb-ae54-9c5495984b11 → 3ac25d15-6c03-40cb-ae54-9c5495984b11
US-AR · senate · nowcast · Hallie Shoffner	4% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 50ab00df-efa8-4c02-b41f-8d97a52dd1d4 → 50ab00df-efa8-4c02-b41f-8d97a52dd1d4
US-PA-15 · house · election_day · Ray Bilger	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AZ-5 · house · election_day · Elizabeth Lee	11% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	11% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NC-2 · house · election_day · Deborah Ross	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MN-4 · house · election_day · Betty McCollum	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-3 · house · election_day · Ami Bera	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NC-6 · house · election_day · Cyril Jefferson	12% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	12% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IA-3 · house · election_day · Sarah Trone Garriott	53% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	52% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 53% → 52%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-DE-AL · house · election_day · Sarah McBride	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OR-4 · house · election_day · Val Hoyle	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-PA-17 · house · election_day · Chris Deluzio	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA-5 · house · election_day · Nikema Williams	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NM-1 · house · election_day · Melanie Stansbury	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-41 · house · election_day · Linda Sánchez	98% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	98% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-38 · house · election_day · Hilda Solis	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-14 · house · election_day · Kathy Castor	84% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	82% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 84% → 82%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MD-8 · house · election_day · Jamie Raskin	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH-14 · house · election_day · Maria Jukic	5% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-12 · house · election_day · Micah Lasher	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-21 · house · election_day · Jim Costa	94% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	94% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NJ-9 · house · election_day · Nellie Pou	95% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	95% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AL-1 · house · election_day · Clyde Jones	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-18 · house · election_day · Pat Ryan	97% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	97% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-PA-1 · house · election_day · Bob Harvie	32% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	31% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 32% → 31%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-6 · house · election_day · Grace Meng	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA · governor · election_day · Xavier Becerra	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers a74dc0c6-b574-4338-a64e-26043c4b2f33 → a74dc0c6-b574-4338-a64e-26043c4b2f33
US-CA · governor · nowcast · Xavier Becerra	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 40b6e927-1c1f-4327-8a78-b04ca1dff7b3 → 40b6e927-1c1f-4327-8a78-b04ca1dff7b3
US-WI-4 · house · election_day · Gwen Moore	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AL · governor · election_day · Doug Jones	4% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 5db4a680-ac91-4338-abb0-cad9d74591d4 → 5db4a680-ac91-4338-abb0-cad9d74591d4
US-AL · governor · nowcast · Doug Jones	3% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	3% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 35f918bd-fa8e-41cf-b5dc-f774696229d8 → 35f918bd-fa8e-41cf-b5dc-f774696229d8
US-FL-25 · house · election_day · Jared Moskowitz	82% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	82% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-24 · house · election_day · Kevin Burge	11% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	11% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL-3 · house · election_day · Delia Ramirez	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA-10 · house · election_day · Pamela DeLancy	9% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	10% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 9% → 10%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-26 · house · election_day · Nicole Locklin	3% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MO-4 · house · election_day · Jordan Herrera	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-PA-7 · house · election_day · Bob Brooks	66% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	65% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 66% → 65%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-VA-7 · house · election_day · Eugene Vindman	94% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	93% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 94% → 93%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL-12 · house · election_day · Julie Fortier	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OK · governor · election_day · Cyndi Munson	11% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	11% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 0976a079-514e-4eb9-aedc-a54398d7be8d → 0976a079-514e-4eb9-aedc-a54398d7be8d
US-TN-3 · house · election_day · Anna Golladay	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MI · governor · election_day · Jocelyn Benson	88% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	88% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers a5045aa0-3488-4d0b-86ff-e3e8e5170c21 → a5045aa0-3488-4d0b-86ff-e3e8e5170c21
US-MI · governor · nowcast · Jocelyn Benson	89% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	89% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 519c9372-24c2-4373-951f-1cb3cf9c66dd → 519c9372-24c2-4373-951f-1cb3cf9c66dd
US-MA · senate · election_day · Ed Markey	>99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 696a716c-43c2-4d90-864a-ace97215f631 → 696a716c-43c2-4d90-864a-ace97215f631
US-MA · senate · nowcast · Ed Markey	>99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers a44241c7-18a8-4151-ae1a-f15464c022d0 → a44241c7-18a8-4151-ae1a-f15464c022d0
US-IL-7 · house · election_day · La Shawn Ford	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH-11 · house · election_day · Shontel Brown	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-VA-5 · house · election_day · Tom Perriello	30% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	29% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 30% → 29%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL-1 · house · election_day · Jonathan Jackson	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AR-2 · house · election_day · Chris Jones	40% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	40% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-23 · house · election_day · Lois Frankel	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AK · governor · election_day · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	83% 2026-10-11T05:25:44Z	83% 2026-10-11T05:25:44Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 93e7d562-d80c-444f-8b18-25189569a914 → 93e7d562-d80c-444f-8b18-25189569a914
US-AK · governor · nowcast · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	86% 2026-10-11T05:25:44Z	86% 2026-10-11T05:25:44Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers b5918ae9-9d55-4b44-a108-8fd36b51000e → b5918ae9-9d55-4b44-a108-8fd36b51000e
US-MI-5 · house · election_day · Christian Vukasovich	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NH-1 · house · election_day · Stefany Shaheen	82% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	81% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 82% → 81%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-VA-11 · house · election_day · James Walkinshaw	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-22 · house · election_day · Pia Dandiya	53% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	52% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 53% → 52%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-18 · house · election_day · Curtis Gibson	7% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	8% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 7% → 8%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AK-AL · house · election_day · Bill Hill	20% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	22% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 20% → 22%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-1 · house · election_day · Mike McGuire	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-RI-1 · house · election_day · Gabe Amo	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MO-8 · house · election_day · Christopher Riechard	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NJ · senate · election_day · Cory Booker	94% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	94% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 8d3d13f2-f956-4a30-a347-dffbad1cd039 → 8d3d13f2-f956-4a30-a347-dffbad1cd039
US-PA-12 · house · election_day · Summer Lee	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-KY-4 · house · election_day · Melissa Claire Strange	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-3 · house · election_day · Tom Suozzi	89% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	88% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 89% → 88%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IN-7 · house · election_day · André Carson	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IA · senate · election_day · Josh Turek	42% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	42% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers fa1cf7a2-84e1-461f-ad6f-bcb02e739008 → fa1cf7a2-84e1-461f-ad6f-bcb02e739008
US-IA · senate · nowcast · Josh Turek	41% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	41% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 6cbfa236-d55d-4faf-b969-b103dc4c9c74 → 6cbfa236-d55d-4faf-b969-b103dc4c9c74
US-NY-13 · house · election_day · Darializa Avila Chevalier	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-36 · house · election_day · Rhonda Hart	3% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 3% → 4%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-23 · house · election_day · Katy Padilla Stout	28% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	28% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-7 · house · election_day · Lizzie Fletcher	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IA-4 · house · election_day · Dave Dawson	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CO · senate · election_day · John Hickenlooper	98% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	98% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 3ddf8ced-7610-41f8-a1ff-bb4a8942be62 → 3ddf8ced-7610-41f8-a1ff-bb4a8942be62
US-AL-3 · house · election_day · Lee McInnis	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-36 · house · election_day · Ted Lieu	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MT-1 · house · election_day · Sam Forstag	41% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	40% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 41% → 40%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MD-5 · house · election_day · Adrian Boafo	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-19 · house · election_day · Jimmy Panetta	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-33 · house · election_day · Colin Allred	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-20 · house · election_day · Paul Tonko	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA-2 · house · election_day · Sanford Bishop	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NC-3 · house · election_day · Raymond Smith Jr.	31% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	30% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 31% → 30%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-52 · house · election_day · Juan Vargas	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OR-2 · house · election_day · Chris Beck	2% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OR-1 · house · election_day · Suzanne Bonamici	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NM · senate · election_day · Ben Ray Luján	93% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	93% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 7de5f89c-bbf8-43ec-a8a9-5d173518554e → 7de5f89c-bbf8-43ec-a8a9-5d173518554e
US-NM · senate · nowcast · Ben Ray Luján	90% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	90% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 0d6770f6-e825-400f-a500-aa0c2f4e75c3 → 0d6770f6-e825-400f-a500-aa0c2f4e75c3
US-NC-10 · house · election_day · Ashley Bell	8% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	8% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH-12 · house · election_day · Jerrad Christian	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MO-2 · house · election_day · Fred Wellman	40% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	39% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 40% → 39%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-PA-16 · house · election_day · Justin Wagner	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 1% → 2%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-26 · house · election_day · Jacqui Irwin	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WA-10 · house · election_day · Marilyn Strickland	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-KS-4 · house · election_day · Katy Tyndell	2% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CO-8 · house · election_day · Manny Rutinel	57% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	55% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 57% → 55%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MI-4 · house · election_day · Sean McCann	41% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	40% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 41% → 40%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-30 · house · election_day · Laura Friedman	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-5 · house · election_day · Chelsey Hockett	5% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 5% → 6%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MO-3 · house · election_day · Bethany Mann	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 1% → 2%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-SD · governor · election_day · Dan Ahlers	2% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	2% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 9a8bf0be-6b8d-4764-9c9f-cad6d51fb034 → 9a8bf0be-6b8d-4764-9c9f-cad6d51fb034
US-AR-3 · house · election_day · Robb Ryerse	2% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-17 · house · election_day · Ro Khanna	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MI-9 · house · election_day · Ray Pooley	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-11 · house · election_day · Claire Reynolds	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-SC · senate · election_day · Annie Andrews	21% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	21% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 173ccd7f-c67f-4430-8031-3664464e5fb6 → 173ccd7f-c67f-4430-8031-3664464e5fb6
US-SC · senate · nowcast · Annie Andrews	28% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	28% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 8858036b-4caa-4930-9bda-dc0e7e296556 → 8858036b-4caa-4930-9bda-dc0e7e296556
US-IL-15 · house · election_day · Jennifer Todd	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-9 · house · election_day · Yvette Clarke	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA · senate · election_day · Jon Ossoff	91% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	91% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 8078900e-662b-4059-b960-7e33669052ee → 8078900e-662b-4059-b960-7e33669052ee
US-GA · senate · nowcast · Jon Ossoff	90% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	90% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 3ea3d772-ec73-4821-8024-152ecbbf1323 → 3ea3d772-ec73-4821-8024-152ecbbf1323
US-NY-19 · house · election_day · Josh Riley	97% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	96% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 97% → 96%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-VA-4 · house · election_day · Jennifer McClellan	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MS-1 · house · election_day · Cliff Johnson	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-DE · senate · election_day · Chris Coons	99% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	99% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 06310444-dc52-4b57-9e7d-d84592d79103 → 06310444-dc52-4b57-9e7d-d84592d79103
US-IL · governor · election_day · JB Pritzker	96% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	96% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 2e206e69-b517-4f8f-b4f4-9e454ae52eb3 → 2e206e69-b517-4f8f-b4f4-9e454ae52eb3
US-IL · governor · nowcast · JB Pritzker	96% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	96% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 208c150c-97b5-46a1-88b7-2df0f3597a21 → 208c150c-97b5-46a1-88b7-2df0f3597a21
US-WA-6 · house · election_day · Emily Randall	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-19 · house · election_day · Victor Arias	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-SC-1 · house · election_day · Nancy Lacore	31% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	31% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH-10 · house · election_day · Kristina Knickerbocker	19% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	19% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-3 · house · election_day · Seth Harp	6% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	7% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 6% → 7%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-RI · senate · election_day · Jack Reed	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 0bc387f9-6370-49ed-bc7a-abc31dd4d7ad → 0bc387f9-6370-49ed-bc7a-abc31dd4d7ad
US-RI · senate · nowcast · Jack Reed	>99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d256a478-b0ad-4d78-8204-74fffffa973c → d256a478-b0ad-4d78-8204-74fffffa973c
US-CA-44 · house · election_day · Nanette Barragán	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NH · senate · election_day · Chris Pappas	83% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	83% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 9cce6d0e-6ec8-4cfb-aadd-9d6650b9f12f → 9cce6d0e-6ec8-4cfb-aadd-9d6650b9f12f
US-NH · senate · nowcast · Chris Pappas	78% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	78% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers ca0297c5-1f2b-47e9-b682-3984364c0443 → ca0297c5-1f2b-47e9-b682-3984364c0443
US-AZ-9 · house · election_day · Danielle Sterbinsky	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-17 · house · election_day · Cait Conley	51% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	50% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 51% → 50%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-21 · house · election_day · Kristin Hook	5% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MA-6 · house · election_day · Dan Koh	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL-17 · house · election_day · Eric Sorensen	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NM-2 · house · election_day · Gabe Vasquez	76% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	74% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 76% → 74%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-VA-9 · house · election_day · Joy Powers	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IN-1 · house · election_day · Frank Mrvan	96% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	96% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-8 · house · election_day · Hakeem Jeffries	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AR-1 · house · election_day · Terri Yarbrough	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-KY-6 · house · election_day · Zach Dembo	48% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	48% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MI-12 · house · election_day · Rashida Tlaib	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TN-6 · house · election_day · Mike Croley	5% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	6% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 5% → 6%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-PA-5 · house · election_day · Mary Gay Scanlon	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NV · governor · election_day · Aaron Ford	28% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	28% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 95c76608-e6f2-46a9-a455-eeb838425253 → 95c76608-e6f2-46a9-a455-eeb838425253
US-NV · governor · nowcast · Aaron Ford	18% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	18% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 8af0b7aa-67c7-4564-ad7a-e2b2c8005c15 → 8af0b7aa-67c7-4564-ad7a-e2b2c8005c15
US-SC-4 · house · election_day · Courtney McClain	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IN-5 · house · election_day · J.D. Ford	21% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	21% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-35 · house · election_day · Norma Torres	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-24 · house · election_day · Alissa Ellman	2% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AZ-1 · house · election_day · Amish Shah	65% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	64% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 65% → 64%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WV-1 · house · election_day · Vince George	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NJ-3 · house · election_day · Herb Conaway	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IN-2 · house · election_day · Jamee Decio	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-27 · house · election_day · George Whitesides	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-37 · house · election_day · Greg Casar	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-49 · house · election_day · Mike Levin	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TN-5 · house · election_day · Chaz Molder	24% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	23% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 24% → 23%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA-12 · house · election_day · Ceretta Smith	11% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	12% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 11% → 12%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AZ-6 · house · election_day · JoAnna Mendoza	59% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	57% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 59% → 57%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-SC-2 · house · election_day · Zyon Khalifa	16% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	16% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-20 · house · election_day · Joaquin Castro	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WA-1 · house · election_day · Suzan DelBene	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-PA-13 · house · election_day · Beth Farnham	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AK · senate · election_day · Mary Peltola	34% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	34% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 098cc12f-32d8-4120-9c0e-92e13979839e → 098cc12f-32d8-4120-9c0e-92e13979839e
US-AK · senate · nowcast · Mary Peltola	54% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	54% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers d95ef436-f0b0-476b-bb49-5f0638c92e76 → d95ef436-f0b0-476b-bb49-5f0638c92e76
US-NJ-7 · house · election_day · Rebecca Bennett	67% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	65% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 67% → 65%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TN · senate · election_day · Marquita Bradshaw	2% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	2% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers cc716b47-c96a-4132-ae85-013f14bb2a90 → cc716b47-c96a-4132-ae85-013f14bb2a90
US-TN · senate · nowcast · Marquita Bradshaw	1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 834d4bb4-16a8-414e-84a6-a7dd4565a8d6 → 834d4bb4-16a8-414e-84a6-a7dd4565a8d6
US-CA-9 · house · election_day · Josh Harder	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-LA-2 · house · election_day · Troy A. Carter Sr.	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NC-8 · house · election_day · Colby Watson	9% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	10% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 9% → 10%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-26 · house · election_day · Steven Shook	3% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-9 · house · election_day · Leticia Gutierrez	8% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	9% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 8% → 9%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-SC-5 · house · election_day · Mallory Dittmer	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-SD-AL · house · election_day · Nicole Gronli	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL-8 · house · election_day · Melissa Bean	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-VA-1 · house · election_day · Shannon Taylor	48% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	46% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 48% → 46%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-15 · house · election_day · Bobby Pulido	47% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	47% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AL-2 · house · election_day · Shomari Figures	44% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	42% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 44% → 42%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MN-1 · house · election_day · Jake Johnson	26% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	25% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 26% → 25%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-KS-3 · house · election_day · Sharice Davids	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CT-2 · house · election_day · Joe Courtney	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NV-4 · house · election_day · Steven Horsford	97% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	97% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-16 · house · election_day · George Latimer	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MD-3 · house · election_day · Sarah Elfreth	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-12 · house · election_day · Kimberly Overman	9% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	9% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IN-6 · house · election_day · Cynthia Wirth	1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-PA-6 · house · election_day · Chrissy Houlahan	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MO-7 · house · election_day · Missi Hesketh	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WI-7 · house · election_day · Fred Clark	8% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	9% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 8% → 9%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MA-9 · house · election_day · Bill Keating	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-KY-3 · house · election_day · Morgan McGarvey	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-HI-1 · house · election_day · Ed Case	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-16 · house · election_day · Veronica Escobar	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MD-1 · house · election_day · Dan Schwartz	8% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	8% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-15 · house · election_day · Ritchie Torres	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NJ-5 · house · election_day · Josh Gottheimer	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-UT-3 · house · election_day · Kent Udell	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-20 · house · election_day · Debbie Wasserman Schultz	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-45 · house · election_day · Derek Tran	93% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	93% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-30 · house · election_day · Frederick Haynes III	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-25 · house · election_day · Joseph Morelle	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CT-5 · house · election_day · Jahana Hayes	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA-8 · house · election_day · Kelly Esti	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-27 · house · election_day · Tanya Lloyd	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CO-3 · house · election_day · Dwayne Romero	35% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	34% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 35% → 34%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IA-1 · house · election_day · Christina Bohannan	65% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	63% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 65% → 63%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-10 · house · election_day · Caitlin Rourk	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 4% → 5%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-13 · house · election_day · Leela Gray	33% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	32% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 33% → 32%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH-5 · house · election_day · Brian Shaver	3% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-VT-AL · house · election_day · Becca Balint	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MS-2 · house · election_day · Bennie Thompson	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-KS-1 · house · election_day · Lauren Reinhold	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-25 · house · election_day · Raul Ruiz	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL-16 · house · election_day · Paul Nolley	3% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-50 · house · election_day · Scott Peters	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-17 · house · election_day · Matthew Montavon	3% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	3% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MI · senate · election_day · Abdul El-Sayed	60% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	60% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 7249717e-691c-4010-8691-578072634b85 → 7249717e-691c-4010-8691-578072634b85
US-MI · senate · nowcast · Abdul El-Sayed	59% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	59% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 0e9635d1-6394-428f-be0c-f9a7dd4e354e → 0e9635d1-6394-428f-be0c-f9a7dd4e354e
US-CA-46 · house · election_day · Lou Correa	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA · governor · election_day · Keisha Lance Bottoms	51% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	51% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers f9057ae7-87ce-4af7-b2eb-69520acfc463 → f9057ae7-87ce-4af7-b2eb-69520acfc463
US-GA · governor · nowcast · Keisha Lance Bottoms	35% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	35% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 65747850-0373-4312-b9b6-fc9ca22f6c10 → 65747850-0373-4312-b9b6-fc9ca22f6c10
US-WY-AL · house · election_day · Lisa F. Kinney	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NH-2 · house · election_day · Maggie Goodlander	98% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	97% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 98% → 97%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA-13 · house · election_day · Jasmine Clark	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CO-2 · house · election_day · Joe Neguse	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NJ-1 · house · election_day · Donald Norcross	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL-6 · house · election_day · Sean Casten	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MA · governor · election_day · Maura Healey	>99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 777cdaf9-a7b1-414d-a384-9145f8bd1515 → 777cdaf9-a7b1-414d-a384-9145f8bd1515
US-MA · governor · nowcast · Maura Healey	>99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 1b0cd334-d741-4e11-9d0b-dabf0e70aed0 → 1b0cd334-d741-4e11-9d0b-dabf0e70aed0
US-NV-3 · house · election_day · Susie Lee	90% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	89% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 90% → 89%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WA-9 · house · election_day · Adam Smith	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-10 · house · election_day · Mark DeSaulnier	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-KY · senate · election_day · Charles Booker	8% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	8% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 5dc5a8dc-f814-459f-8a89-5ce660733aca → 5dc5a8dc-f814-459f-8a89-5ce660733aca
US-KY · senate · nowcast · Charles Booker	7% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	7% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 29cbe7bd-8342-422e-8e46-9eab59a7a580 → 29cbe7bd-8342-422e-8e46-9eab59a7a580
US-WI-8 · house · election_day · Rick Crosson	12% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	12% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WI · governor · election_day · David Crowley	64% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	64% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers b6edd7ff-ac98-4a47-822f-a91701a2fb8a → b6edd7ff-ac98-4a47-822f-a91701a2fb8a
US-WI · governor · nowcast · David Crowley	66% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	66% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 36257b81-3fae-4b56-b681-e778d935c92c → 36257b81-3fae-4b56-b681-e778d935c92c
US-GA-4 · house · election_day · Hank Johnson	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY · governor · election_day · Kathy Hochul	96% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	96% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 97680b31-6fda-4c1d-82fa-bbc03fb094c4 → 97680b31-6fda-4c1d-82fa-bbc03fb094c4
US-NY · governor · nowcast · Kathy Hochul	97% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	97% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers fe0627c3-8f49-4b72-92b1-e344f1605e85 → fe0627c3-8f49-4b72-92b1-e344f1605e85
US-CO-6 · house · election_day · Jason Crow	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MI-1 · house · election_day · Callie Barr	4% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-PA-14 · house · election_day · Alan Bradstock	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-ME · governor · election_day · Hannah Pingree	95% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	95% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers c30c0425-02c3-4f4d-8640-2350f19ea39e → c30c0425-02c3-4f4d-8640-2350f19ea39e
US-ME · governor · nowcast · Hannah Pingree	97% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	97% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers ed20daed-fd01-4351-a9e9-bb27a4b3fda9 → ed20daed-fd01-4351-a9e9-bb27a4b3fda9
US-CT-1 · house · election_day · Luke Bronin	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-24 · house · election_day · Salud Carbajal	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA-9 · house · election_day · Caitlyn Gegan	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OK-4 · house · election_day · Mitchell Jacob	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-OH-6 · house · election_day · Elizabeth Kirtley	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-31 · house · election_day · Justin Early	7% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	7% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WY · governor · election_day · Kenneth Casner	<1% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	<1% 2026-10-11T05:25:42Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers f56df86a-f4a2-4184-8e8c-a42df92d5e19 → f56df86a-f4a2-4184-8e8c-a42df92d5e19
US-TX-3 · house · election_day · Evan Hunt	3% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	4% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 3% → 4%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CO-4 · house · election_day · Eileen Laubacher	8% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	8% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IN-9 · house · election_day · Brad Meyer	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-6 · house · election_day · Danny Minton	5% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	5% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AZ-2 · house · election_day · Jonathan Nez	24% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	24% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-GA-7 · house · election_day · Anthony Kozycki	8% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	8% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-PA · governor · election_day · Josh Shapiro	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 29d4192a-34ec-4c95-abcd-afe0205aa02a → 29d4192a-34ec-4c95-abcd-afe0205aa02a
US-PA · governor · nowcast · Josh Shapiro	>99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 88de8d67-8b5b-4111-9059-bde9e4dac2be → 88de8d67-8b5b-4111-9059-bde9e4dac2be
US-NJ-10 · house · election_day · LaMonica McIver	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MD-4 · house · election_day · Glenn Ivey	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NJ-11 · house · election_day · Analilia Mejia	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IL-10 · house · election_day · Brad Schneider	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-IN-4 · house · election_day · Drew Cox	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed probability changed; exact values are in downloads	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WI-1 · house · election_day · Mitchell Berman	32% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	31% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 32% → 31%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-10 · house · election_day · Brad Lander	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-6 · house · election_day · Richard Pan	50% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	50% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-19 · house · election_day · Kyle Rable	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WV-2 · house · election_day · Ace Parsi	<1% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	<1% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TN-9 · house · election_day · Justin J. Pearson	18% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	18% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MI-11 · house · election_day · Jeremy Moss	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-FL-7 · house · election_day · Bale Dalton	65% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	64% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 65% → 64%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MN · governor · election_day · Amy Klobuchar	92% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	92% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers dd71f5c9-17ff-4e13-a328-588c3c203379 → dd71f5c9-17ff-4e13-a328-588c3c203379
US-MN · governor · nowcast · Amy Klobuchar	92% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	92% 2026-10-11T05:11:18Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Cause not established by these snapshots Run identifiers 7a3e6d1c-6c65-4bef-ae37-5fe1eee131ea → 7a3e6d1c-6c65-4bef-ae37-5fe1eee131ea
US-IL-2 · house · election_day · Donna Miller	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-42 · house · election_day · Robert Garcia	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CA-8 · house · election_day · John Garamendi	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-TX-18 · house · election_day · Christian Menefee	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-MI-8 · house · election_day · Kristen McDonald Rivet	97% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	96% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 97% → 96%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-11 · house · election_day · Michael DeCillis	2% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	2% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-WA-8 · house · election_day · Kim Schrier	99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-AZ-8 · house · election_day · Bernadette Greene-Placentia	9% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	10% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Displayed 9% → 10%	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-NY-26 · house · election_day · Tim Kennedy	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673
US-CT-4 · house · election_day · Jim Himes	>99% 2026-10-10T07:00:18Z	>99% 2026-10-11T08:18:15Z	Unchanged at displayed precision	Model version changed; causal attribution unavailable Run identifiers 66ecbb0b-1a8d-403d-bf87-a694924ebefb → 0a3ffb5d-7f13-461a-ae0f-c3ee490e8673