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Forecast · Senate and governors

Where the Toss-Ups Went

Since September 24, fourteen races moved toward Democrats or independents and six toward Republicans

Every Senate and governor race that was anything but safe at some point, and how its rating changed at three moments of the season. Eighteen kept their rating. Ratings come from the favorite's chance: toss-up below 60%, lean from 60% to 84%, likely from 85% to 94%, and safe at 95% or more.

Data as of the forecast published November 2, 2026.

Swipe the chart sideways to see all of it.

Safe RLikely RLean RToss-upLean D/ILikely D/ISafe D/I2 races: Safe R → Likely R1 race: Likely R → Safe R3 races: Likely R → Likely R3 races: Likely R → Lean R3 races: Lean R → Likely R5 races: Lean R → Lean R1 race: Lean R → Toss-up2 races: Toss-up → Toss-up3 races: Toss-up → Lean D/I3 races: Lean D/I → Toss-up3 races: Lean D/I → Lean D/I2 races: Lean D/I → Likely D/I5 races: Likely D/I → Likely D/I2 races: Safe D/I → Likely D/I1 race: Safe R → Safe R2 races: Likely R → Safe R5 races: Likely R → Likely R1 race: Likely R → Lean R1 race: Lean R → Safe R2 races: Lean R → Likely R3 races: Lean R → Lean R2 races: Lean R → Toss-up4 races: Toss-up → Toss-up2 races: Toss-up → Lean D/I6 races: Lean D/I → Lean D/I4 races: Likely D/I → Likely D/I5 races: Likely D/I → Safe D/ISafe R 2Likely R 7Lean R 9Toss-up 5Lean D/I 8Likely D/I 5Safe D/I 2September 24Safe R 1Likely R 8Lean R 8Toss-up 6Lean D/I 6Likely D/I 9October 13Safe R 4Likely R 7Lean R 4Toss-up 6Lean D/I 8Likely D/I 4Safe D/I 5November 2

How to read it. Each ribbon is a group of races with one rating at one moment and one at the next, the same or different; the ribbon's thickness shows how many races are in it. A ribbon that ends at a different rating from the one it starts at is a rating change. Races safe at all three moments are left out, and so are six whose forecasts began more than a week after September 24.

Source. FutureBallot election-day forecasts: the newest published run on each date. Drawn November 2, 2026, 6:10 AM Pacific.

Link to this chartChart image pageDownload the data (CSV)Free to republish with credit to FutureBallot.