ME Senate moved most in the last thirty days: 0.9 points toward Jackson, the largest part from new polls
The races whose published forecasts moved most over the last thirty days, each move split into what caused it: new polls, the calendar moving on, changes to the model, the ground-up estimate, news events and an unexplained remainder. The parts add up exactly to the move; the dot is where each race ended up.
Data as of the forecast published November 2, 2026.
Swipe the chart sideways to see all of it.
How to read it. Bars to the right moved the race toward the candidate named second; bars to the left toward the candidate named first. Long bars both ways mean causes that pulled against each other.
Source. FutureBallot forecast attribution (each published election-day move decomposed by re-running the model with one input changed at a time), margin in points. Drawn November 2, 2026, 6:10 AM Pacific.