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A chart from The Fog of the Forecast

The Fog of the Forecast

DemocratRepublicanIndependentPale band: 90% of simulationsDark band: the middle halfTick: middle resultR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40← Republican or other aheadDemocrat or independent ahead →WY Senate: Byrd (D) vs Hageman (R); middle of the range Hageman+37.1; 90% of simulations between Hageman+57.9 and Hageman+16.2WY SenateHageman (R) >99%, +37WY Governor: Casner (D) vs Barlow (R); middle of the range Barlow+35.7; 90% of simulations between Barlow+54.2 and Barlow+17.2WY GovernorBarlow (R) >99%, +36WV Senate: Anderson (D) vs Capito (R); middle of the range Capito+29.9; 90% of simulations between Capito+50.2 and Capito+9.6WV SenateCapito (R) >99%, +30ID Governor: Pickens (D) vs Little (R); middle of the range Little+25.8; 90% of simulations between Little+40.7 and Little+10.7ID GovernorLittle (R) >99%, +26OK Senate: Thomas (D) vs Hern (R); middle of the range Hern+24.0; 90% of simulations between Hern+38.5 and Hern+9.3OK SenateHern (R) >99%, +24TN Senate: Bradshaw (D) vs Hagerty (R); middle of the range Hagerty+22.4; 90% of simulations between Hagerty+36.9 and Hagerty+7.7TN SenateHagerty (R) >99%, +22SD Governor: Ahlers (D) vs Rhoden (R); middle of the range Rhoden+20.3; 90% of simulations between Rhoden+35.3 and Rhoden+5.2SD GovernorRhoden (R) 99%, +20AR Governor: Love (D) vs Sanders (R); middle of the range Sanders+17.3; 90% of simulations between Sanders+32.2 and Sanders+2.1AR GovernorSanders (R) 97%, +17AL Senate: Wess (D) vs Moore (R); middle of the range Moore+17.1; 90% of simulations between Moore+27.3 and Moore+6.7AL SenateMoore (R) >99%, +17ID Senate: Achilles (I) vs Risch (R); middle of the range Risch+16.8; 90% of simulations between Risch+31.0 and Risch+2.6ID SenateRisch (R) 97%, +17TN Governor: Green (D) vs Blackburn (R); middle of the range Blackburn+15.7; 90% of simulations between Blackburn+26.4 and Blackburn+4.9TN GovernorBlackburn (R) 99%, +16AR Senate: Shoffner (D) vs Cotton (R); middle of the range Cotton+14.8; 90% of simulations between Cotton+29.8 and Shoffner+0.4AR SenateCotton (R) 95%, +15KY Senate: Booker (D) vs Barr (R); middle of the range Barr+13.3; 90% of simulations between Barr+27.8 and Booker+1.5KY SenateBarr (R) 93%, +13MT Senate: Bodnar (I) vs Alme (R); middle of the range Alme+12.8; 90% of simulations between Alme+22.8 and Alme+2.3MT SenateAlme (R) 97%, +13AL Governor: Jones (D) vs Tuberville (R); middle of the range Tuberville+12.4; 90% of simulations between Tuberville+22.5 and Tuberville+2.2AL GovernorTuberville (R) 97%, +12LA Senate: Davis (D) vs Letlow (R); middle of the range Letlow+10.3; 90% of simulations between Letlow+24.8 and Davis+4.4LA SenateLetlow (R) 88%, +10SC Governor: Johnson (D) vs Wilson (R); middle of the range Wilson+10.3; 90% of simulations between Wilson+19.7 and Wilson+0.6SC GovernorWilson (R) 96%, +10MS Senate: Colom (D) vs Hyde-Smith (R); middle of the range Hyde-Smith+9.0; 90% of simulations between Hyde-Smith+19.2 and Colom+1.4MS SenateHyde-Smith (R) 93%, +9.0OK Governor: Munson (D) vs Mazzei (R); middle of the range Mazzei+8.9; 90% of simulations between Mazzei+23.8 and Munson+6.2OK GovernorMazzei (R) 84%, +8.9SD Senate: Bengs (I) vs Rounds (R); middle of the range Rounds+8.4; 90% of simulations between Rounds+18.2 and Bengs+1.5SD SenateRounds (R) 92%, +8.4NH Governor: Warmington (D) vs Ayotte (R); middle of the range Ayotte+7.2; 90% of simulations between Ayotte+16.5 and Warmington+2.4NH GovernorAyotte (R) 90%, +7.2VT Governor: Janoo (D) vs Scott (R); middle of the range Scott+6.6; 90% of simulations between Scott+17.5 and Janoo+4.7VT GovernorScott (R) 84%, +6.6FL Senate: Nixon (D) vs Moody (R); middle of the range Moody+5.7; 90% of simulations between Moody+14.7 and Nixon+3.5FL SenateMoody (R) 86%, +5.7NE Governor: Walz (D) vs Pillen (R); middle of the range Pillen+5.5; 90% of simulations between Pillen+14.8 and Walz+3.9NE GovernorPillen (R) 85%, +5.5FL Governor: Jolly (D) vs Donalds (R); middle of the range Donalds+3.6; 90% of simulations between Donalds+12.6 and Jolly+5.5FL GovernorDonalds (R) 77%, +3.6SC Senate: Andrews (D) vs Graham (R); middle of the range Graham+3.0; 90% of simulations between Graham+12.2 and Andrews+6.3SC SenateGraham (R) 73%, +3.0TX Governor: Hinojosa (D) vs Abbott (R); middle of the range Abbott+2.5; 90% of simulations between Abbott+11.6 and Hinojosa+6.6TX GovernorAbbott (R) 69%, +2.5KS Governor: Holscher (D) vs Masterson (R); middle of the range Masterson+1.1; 90% of simulations between Masterson+10.3 and Holscher+8.2KS GovernorMasterson (R) 59%, +1.1NE Senate: Osborn (I) vs Ricketts (R); middle of the range Ricketts+1.0; 90% of simulations between Ricketts+10.1 and Osborn+8.1NE SenateRicketts (R) 58%, +1.0NV Governor: Ford (D) vs Lombardo (R); middle of the range Lombardo+0.5; 90% of simulations between Lombardo+9.9 and Ford+9.1NV GovernorLombardo (R) 54%, +0.5IA Senate: Turek (D) vs Hinson (R); middle of the range Hinson+0.3; 90% of simulations between Hinson+9.3 and Turek+8.8IA SenateHinson (R) 52%, +0.3KS Senate: Hamilton (D) vs Marshall (R); middle of the range Hamilton+0.7; 90% of simulations between Marshall+8.5 and Hamilton+10.0KS SenateHamilton (D) 56%, +0.7AK Senate: Peltola (D) vs Sullivan (R); middle of the range Peltola+1.4; 90% of simulations between Sullivan+11.6 and Peltola+14.4AK SenatePeltola (D) 57%, +1.4GA Governor: Bottoms (D) vs Jackson (R); middle of the range Bottoms+1.6; 90% of simulations between Jackson+7.9 and Bottoms+11.0GA GovernorBottoms (D) 62%, +1.6TX Senate: Talarico (D) vs Paxton (R); middle of the range Talarico+2.4; 90% of simulations between Paxton+6.6 and Talarico+11.5TX SenateTalarico (D) 69%, +2.4ME Senate: Jackson (D) vs Collins (R); middle of the range Jackson+2.9; 90% of simulations between Collins+6.3 and Jackson+12.2ME SenateJackson (D) 72%, +2.9OH Senate: Brown (D) vs Husted (R); middle of the range Brown+3.1; 90% of simulations between Husted+6.0 and Brown+12.3OH SenateBrown (D) 74%, +3.1WI Governor: Crowley (D) vs Tiffany (R); middle of the range Crowley+4.0; 90% of simulations between Tiffany+5.3 and Crowley+13.3WI GovernorCrowley (D) 78%, +4.0OH Governor: Acton (D) vs Ramaswamy (R); middle of the range Acton+4.2; 90% of simulations between Ramaswamy+4.9 and Acton+13.4OH GovernorActon (D) 80%, +4.2MI Senate: El-Sayed (D) vs Rogers (R); middle of the range El-Sayed+4.6; 90% of simulations between Rogers+4.6 and El-Sayed+13.8MI SenateEl-Sayed (D) 81%, +4.6OR Governor: Kotek (D) vs Drazan (R); middle of the range Kotek+5.3; 90% of simulations between Drazan+4.3 and Kotek+15.2OR GovernorKotek (D) 83%, +5.3IA Governor: Sand (D) vs Lahn (R); middle of the range Sand+5.6; 90% of simulations between Lahn+3.5 and Sand+14.9IA GovernorSand (D) 87%, +5.6MN Senate: Flanagan (D) vs Tafoya (R); middle of the range Flanagan+7.1; 90% of simulations between Tafoya+2.0 and Flanagan+16.3MN SenateFlanagan (D) 91%, +7.1NM Governor: Haaland (D) vs Hull (R); middle of the range Haaland+8.1; 90% of simulations between Hull+1.9 and Haaland+18.3NM GovernorHaaland (D) 92%, +8.1NH Senate: Pappas (D) vs Sununu (R); middle of the range Pappas+8.6; 90% of simulations between Sununu+0.6 and Pappas+18.1NH SenatePappas (D) 94%, +8.6MI Governor: Benson (D) vs James (R); middle of the range Benson+8.8; 90% of simulations between James+0.2 and Benson+18.1MI GovernorBenson (D) 95%, +8.8AK Governor: Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs Wilson (R); middle of the range Kreiss-Tomkins+9.6; 90% of simulations between Wilson+3.4 and Kreiss-Tomkins+22.6AK GovernorKreiss-Tomkins (D) 89%, +9.6GA Senate: Ossoff (D) vs Collins (R); middle of the range Ossoff+10.1; 90% of simulations between Ossoff+0.9 and Ossoff+19.5GA SenateOssoff (D) 96%, +10NC Senate: Cooper (D) vs Whatley (R); middle of the range Cooper+10.5; 90% of simulations between Cooper+1.4 and Cooper+19.7NC SenateCooper (D) 97%, +10MN Governor: Klobuchar (D) vs Demuth (R); middle of the range Klobuchar+11.0; 90% of simulations between Klobuchar+1.7 and Klobuchar+20.3MN GovernorKlobuchar (D) 97%, +11AZ Governor: Hobbs (D) vs Biggs (R); middle of the range Hobbs+11.0; 90% of simulations between Hobbs+1.5 and Hobbs+20.5AZ GovernorHobbs (D) 97%, +11ME Governor: Pingree (D) vs Charles (R); middle of the range Pingree+11.7; 90% of simulations between Pingree+2.7 and Pingree+20.8ME GovernorPingree (D) 98%, +12NY Governor: Hochul (D) vs Blakeman (R); middle of the range Hochul+14.3; 90% of simulations between Hochul+4.9 and Hochul+23.8NY GovernorHochul (D) 99%, +14NM Senate: Luján (D) vs Marker (R); middle of the range Luján+16.7; 90% of simulations between Luján+2.2 and Luján+31.4NM SenateLuján (D) 97%, +17RI Governor: Foulkes (D) vs Block (I); middle of the range Foulkes+17.4; 90% of simulations between Foulkes+7.8 and Foulkes+27.1RI GovernorFoulkes (D) >99%, +17IL Senate: Stratton (D) vs Tracy (R); middle of the range Stratton+17.8; 90% of simulations between Stratton+3.2 and Stratton+32.5IL SenateStratton (D) 98%, +18CO Senate: Hickenlooper (D) vs Baisley (R); middle of the range Hickenlooper+18.1; 90% of simulations between Hickenlooper+3.5 and Hickenlooper+32.8CO SenateHickenlooper (D) 98%, +18CT Governor: Lamont (D) vs Fazio (R); middle of the range Lamont+18.2; 90% of simulations between Lamont+8.8 and Lamont+27.6CT GovernorLamont (D) >99%, +18VA Senate: Warner (D) vs Mizusawa (R); middle of the range Warner+18.5; 90% of simulations between Warner+1.2 and Warner+35.8VA SenateWarner (D) 96%, +18NJ Senate: Booker (D) vs Murphy (R); middle of the range Booker+19.9; 90% of simulations between Murphy+0.6 and Booker+40.5NJ SenateBooker (D) 94%, +20IL Governor: Pritzker (D) vs Bailey (R); middle of the range Pritzker+20.2; 90% of simulations between Pritzker+10.3 and Pritzker+30.2IL GovernorPritzker (D) >99%, +20PA Governor: Shapiro (D) vs Garrity (R); middle of the range Shapiro+21.6; 90% of simulations between Shapiro+12.1 and Shapiro+31.3PA GovernorShapiro (D) >99%, +22CO Governor: Weiser (D) vs Marx (R); middle of the range Weiser+21.7; 90% of simulations between Weiser+6.8 and Weiser+36.8CO GovernorWeiser (D) >99%, +22MA Governor: Healey (D) vs Minogue (R); middle of the range Healey+23.7; 90% of simulations between Healey+14.3 and Healey+33.1MA GovernorHealey (D) >99%, +24CA Governor: Becerra (D) vs Hilton (R); middle of the range Becerra+24.0; 90% of simulations between Becerra+14.7 and Becerra+33.4CA GovernorBecerra (D) >99%, +24MA Senate: Markey (D) vs Deaton (R); middle of the range Markey+25.7; 90% of simulations between Markey+16.3 and Markey+35.1MA SenateMarkey (D) >99%, +26OR Senate: Merkley (D) vs Smith (R); middle of the range Merkley+26.6; 90% of simulations between Merkley+6.3 and Merkley+47.0OR SenateMerkley (D) 98%, +27RI Senate: Reed (D) vs McKay (R); middle of the range Reed+27.1; 90% of simulations between Reed+16.9 and Reed+37.6RI SenateReed (D) >99%, +27DE Senate: Coons (D) vs Katz (R); middle of the range Coons+28.7; 90% of simulations between Coons+8.5 and Coons+49.0DE SenateCoons (D) >99%, +29MD Governor: Moore (D) vs Cox (R); middle of the range Moore+30.6; 90% of simulations between Moore+15.7 and Moore+45.7MD GovernorMoore (D) >99%, +31HI Governor: Green (D) vs Cordery (R); middle of the range Green+32.9; 90% of simulations between Green+11.8 and Green+53.9HI GovernorGreen (D) >99%, +33Favorite: chance, middle margin

Forecast margin ranges for 71 Senate and governor races

  • Democrat
  • Republican
  • Independent
  • Pale band: 90% of simulations
  • Dark band: the middle half
  • Tick: middle result

Forecast as of November 2, 2026. See it in context · Preview image (PNG, 1200 by 630)