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A chart from Why the Forecasts Moved

Why the Forecasts Moved

New pollsTime passingModel changesGround-up estimateNews eventsUnexplained1 pt1 ptChange in the expected margin, in points← toward the candidate on the lefttoward the candidate on the right →ME Senate: net +0.9 points toward Jackson (D) in thirty daysME SenateCollins (R) · Jackson (D)net 0.9 toward JacksonIL Senate: net -0.9 points toward Tracy (R) in thirty daysIL SenateTracy (R) · Stratton (D)net 0.9 toward TracyOH Senate: net -0.6 points toward Husted (R) in thirty daysOH SenateHusted (R) · Brown (D)net 0.6 toward HustedOK Senate: net +0.5 points toward Thomas (D) in thirty daysOK SenateHern (R) · Thomas (D)net 0.5 toward ThomasNE Senate: net -0.5 points toward Ricketts (R) in thirty daysNE SenateRicketts (R) · Osborn (I)net 0.5 toward RickettsMD Governor: net +0.2 points toward Moore (D) in thirty daysMD GovernorCox (R) · Moore (D)net 0.2 toward MooreRI Governor: net -0.2 points toward Block (I) in thirty daysRI GovernorBlock (I) · Foulkes (D)net 0.2 toward BlockNH Governor: net +0.1 points toward Warmington (D) in thirty daysNH GovernorAyotte (R) · Warmington (D)net 0.1 toward WarmingtonID Governor: net +0.1 points toward Pickens (D) in thirty daysID GovernorLittle (R) · Pickens (D)net 0.1 toward PickensKS Senate: net -0.1 points toward Marshall (R) in thirty daysKS SenateMarshall (R) · Hamilton (D)net 0.1 toward MarshallIA Governor: net -0.1 points toward Lahn (R) in thirty daysIA GovernorLahn (R) · Sand (D)net 0.1 toward Lahn

ME Senate moved most in the last thirty days: 0.9 points toward Jackson, the largest part from new polls

  • New polls
  • Time passing
  • Model changes
  • Ground-up estimate
  • News events
  • Unexplained

Forecast as of November 2, 2026. See it in context · Preview image (PNG, 1200 by 630)