Forecast · Senate and governors
The Fog of the Forecast In thirty-four of seventy-one Senate and governor races, either candidate can win inside the forecast's likely range
A forecast is a range, not a number. The pale band holds 90% of simulated results, the darker band the middle half, and the tick is the middle result. Where a pale band crosses the center line, either candidate wins in some of the simulations.
Data as of the forecast published November 2, 2026.
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Democrat Republican Independent Pale band: 90% of simulations Dark band: the middle half Tick: middle result R+40 R+30 R+20 R+10 Even D+10 D+20 D+30 D+40 ← Republican or other ahead Democrat or independent ahead → WY Senate: Byrd (D) vs Hageman (R); middle of the range Hageman+37.1; 90% of simulations between Hageman+57.9 and Hageman+16.2 WY Senate Hageman (R) >99%, +37 WY Governor: Casner (D) vs Barlow (R); middle of the range Barlow+35.7; 90% of simulations between Barlow+54.2 and Barlow+17.2 WY Governor Barlow (R) >99%, +36 WV Senate: Anderson (D) vs Capito (R); middle of the range Capito+29.9; 90% of simulations between Capito+50.2 and Capito+9.6 WV Senate Capito (R) >99%, +30 ID Governor: Pickens (D) vs Little (R); middle of the range Little+25.8; 90% of simulations between Little+40.7 and Little+10.7 ID Governor Little (R) >99%, +26 OK Senate: Thomas (D) vs Hern (R); middle of the range Hern+24.0; 90% of simulations between Hern+38.5 and Hern+9.3 OK Senate Hern (R) >99%, +24 TN Senate: Bradshaw (D) vs Hagerty (R); middle of the range Hagerty+22.4; 90% of simulations between Hagerty+36.9 and Hagerty+7.7 TN Senate Hagerty (R) >99%, +22 SD Governor: Ahlers (D) vs Rhoden (R); middle of the range Rhoden+20.3; 90% of simulations between Rhoden+35.3 and Rhoden+5.2 SD Governor Rhoden (R) 99%, +20 AR Governor: Love (D) vs Sanders (R); middle of the range Sanders+17.3; 90% of simulations between Sanders+32.2 and Sanders+2.1 AR Governor Sanders (R) 97%, +17 AL Senate: Wess (D) vs Moore (R); middle of the range Moore+17.1; 90% of simulations between Moore+27.3 and Moore+6.7 AL Senate Moore (R) >99%, +17 ID Senate: Achilles (I) vs Risch (R); middle of the range Risch+16.8; 90% of simulations between Risch+31.0 and Risch+2.6 ID Senate Risch (R) 97%, +17 TN Governor: Green (D) vs Blackburn (R); middle of the range Blackburn+15.7; 90% of simulations between Blackburn+26.4 and Blackburn+4.9 TN Governor Blackburn (R) 99%, +16 AR Senate: Shoffner (D) vs Cotton (R); middle of the range Cotton+14.8; 90% of simulations between Cotton+29.8 and Shoffner+0.4 AR Senate Cotton (R) 95%, +15 KY Senate: Booker (D) vs Barr (R); middle of the range Barr+13.3; 90% of simulations between Barr+27.8 and Booker+1.5 KY Senate Barr (R) 93%, +13 MT Senate: Bodnar (I) vs Alme (R); middle of the range Alme+12.8; 90% of simulations between Alme+22.8 and Alme+2.3 MT Senate Alme (R) 97%, +13 AL Governor: Jones (D) vs Tuberville (R); middle of the range Tuberville+12.4; 90% of simulations between Tuberville+22.5 and Tuberville+2.2 AL Governor Tuberville (R) 97%, +12 LA Senate: Davis (D) vs Letlow (R); middle of the range Letlow+10.3; 90% of simulations between Letlow+24.8 and Davis+4.4 LA Senate Letlow (R) 88%, +10 SC Governor: Johnson (D) vs Wilson (R); middle of the range Wilson+10.3; 90% of simulations between Wilson+19.7 and Wilson+0.6 SC Governor Wilson (R) 96%, +10 MS Senate: Colom (D) vs Hyde-Smith (R); middle of the range Hyde-Smith+9.0; 90% of simulations between Hyde-Smith+19.2 and Colom+1.4 MS Senate Hyde-Smith (R) 93%, +9.0 OK Governor: Munson (D) vs Mazzei (R); middle of the range Mazzei+8.9; 90% of simulations between Mazzei+23.8 and Munson+6.2 OK Governor Mazzei (R) 84%, +8.9 SD Senate: Bengs (I) vs Rounds (R); middle of the range Rounds+8.4; 90% of simulations between Rounds+18.2 and Bengs+1.5 SD Senate Rounds (R) 92%, +8.4 NH Governor: Warmington (D) vs Ayotte (R); middle of the range Ayotte+7.2; 90% of simulations between Ayotte+16.5 and Warmington+2.4 NH Governor Ayotte (R) 90%, +7.2 VT Governor: Janoo (D) vs Scott (R); middle of the range Scott+6.6; 90% of simulations between Scott+17.5 and Janoo+4.7 VT Governor Scott (R) 84%, +6.6 FL Senate: Nixon (D) vs Moody (R); middle of the range Moody+5.7; 90% of simulations between Moody+14.7 and Nixon+3.5 FL Senate Moody (R) 86%, +5.7 NE Governor: Walz (D) vs Pillen (R); middle of the range Pillen+5.5; 90% of simulations between Pillen+14.8 and Walz+3.9 NE Governor Pillen (R) 85%, +5.5 FL Governor: Jolly (D) vs Donalds (R); middle of the range Donalds+3.6; 90% of simulations between Donalds+12.6 and Jolly+5.5 FL Governor Donalds (R) 77%, +3.6 SC Senate: Andrews (D) vs Graham (R); middle of the range Graham+3.0; 90% of simulations between Graham+12.2 and Andrews+6.3 SC Senate Graham (R) 73%, +3.0 TX Governor: Hinojosa (D) vs Abbott (R); middle of the range Abbott+2.5; 90% of simulations between Abbott+11.6 and Hinojosa+6.6 TX Governor Abbott (R) 69%, +2.5 KS Governor: Holscher (D) vs Masterson (R); middle of the range Masterson+1.1; 90% of simulations between Masterson+10.3 and Holscher+8.2 KS Governor Masterson (R) 59%, +1.1 NE Senate: Osborn (I) vs Ricketts (R); middle of the range Ricketts+1.0; 90% of simulations between Ricketts+10.1 and Osborn+8.1 NE Senate Ricketts (R) 58%, +1.0 NV Governor: Ford (D) vs Lombardo (R); middle of the range Lombardo+0.5; 90% of simulations between Lombardo+9.9 and Ford+9.1 NV Governor Lombardo (R) 54%, +0.5 IA Senate: Turek (D) vs Hinson (R); middle of the range Hinson+0.3; 90% of simulations between Hinson+9.3 and Turek+8.8 IA Senate Hinson (R) 52%, +0.3 KS Senate: Hamilton (D) vs Marshall (R); middle of the range Hamilton+0.7; 90% of simulations between Marshall+8.5 and Hamilton+10.0 KS Senate Hamilton (D) 56%, +0.7 AK Senate: Peltola (D) vs Sullivan (R); middle of the range Peltola+1.4; 90% of simulations between Sullivan+11.6 and Peltola+14.4 AK Senate Peltola (D) 57%, +1.4 GA Governor: Bottoms (D) vs Jackson (R); middle of the range Bottoms+1.6; 90% of simulations between Jackson+7.9 and Bottoms+11.0 GA Governor Bottoms (D) 62%, +1.6 TX Senate: Talarico (D) vs Paxton (R); middle of the range Talarico+2.4; 90% of simulations between Paxton+6.6 and Talarico+11.5 TX Senate Talarico (D) 69%, +2.4 ME Senate: Jackson (D) vs Collins (R); middle of the range Jackson+2.9; 90% of simulations between Collins+6.3 and Jackson+12.2 ME Senate Jackson (D) 72%, +2.9 OH Senate: Brown (D) vs Husted (R); middle of the range Brown+3.1; 90% of simulations between Husted+6.0 and Brown+12.3 OH Senate Brown (D) 74%, +3.1 WI Governor: Crowley (D) vs Tiffany (R); middle of the range Crowley+4.0; 90% of simulations between Tiffany+5.3 and Crowley+13.3 WI Governor Crowley (D) 78%, +4.0 OH Governor: Acton (D) vs Ramaswamy (R); middle of the range Acton+4.2; 90% of simulations between Ramaswamy+4.9 and Acton+13.4 OH Governor Acton (D) 80%, +4.2 MI Senate: El-Sayed (D) vs Rogers (R); middle of the range El-Sayed+4.6; 90% of simulations between Rogers+4.6 and El-Sayed+13.8 MI Senate El-Sayed (D) 81%, +4.6 OR Governor: Kotek (D) vs Drazan (R); middle of the range Kotek+5.3; 90% of simulations between Drazan+4.3 and Kotek+15.2 OR Governor Kotek (D) 83%, +5.3 IA Governor: Sand (D) vs Lahn (R); middle of the range Sand+5.6; 90% of simulations between Lahn+3.5 and Sand+14.9 IA Governor Sand (D) 87%, +5.6 MN Senate: Flanagan (D) vs Tafoya (R); middle of the range Flanagan+7.1; 90% of simulations between Tafoya+2.0 and Flanagan+16.3 MN Senate Flanagan (D) 91%, +7.1 NM Governor: Haaland (D) vs Hull (R); middle of the range Haaland+8.1; 90% of simulations between Hull+1.9 and Haaland+18.3 NM Governor Haaland (D) 92%, +8.1 NH Senate: Pappas (D) vs Sununu (R); middle of the range Pappas+8.6; 90% of simulations between Sununu+0.6 and Pappas+18.1 NH Senate Pappas (D) 94%, +8.6 MI Governor: Benson (D) vs James (R); middle of the range Benson+8.8; 90% of simulations between James+0.2 and Benson+18.1 MI Governor Benson (D) 95%, +8.8 AK Governor: Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs Wilson (R); middle of the range Kreiss-Tomkins+9.6; 90% of simulations between Wilson+3.4 and Kreiss-Tomkins+22.6 AK Governor Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 89%, +9.6 GA Senate: Ossoff (D) vs Collins (R); middle of the range Ossoff+10.1; 90% of simulations between Ossoff+0.9 and Ossoff+19.5 GA Senate Ossoff (D) 96%, +10 NC Senate: Cooper (D) vs Whatley (R); middle of the range Cooper+10.5; 90% of simulations between Cooper+1.4 and Cooper+19.7 NC Senate Cooper (D) 97%, +10 MN Governor: Klobuchar (D) vs Demuth (R); middle of the range Klobuchar+11.0; 90% of simulations between Klobuchar+1.7 and Klobuchar+20.3 MN Governor Klobuchar (D) 97%, +11 AZ Governor: Hobbs (D) vs Biggs (R); middle of the range Hobbs+11.0; 90% of simulations between Hobbs+1.5 and Hobbs+20.5 AZ Governor Hobbs (D) 97%, +11 ME Governor: Pingree (D) vs Charles (R); middle of the range Pingree+11.7; 90% of simulations between Pingree+2.7 and Pingree+20.8 ME Governor Pingree (D) 98%, +12 NY Governor: Hochul (D) vs Blakeman (R); middle of the range Hochul+14.3; 90% of simulations between Hochul+4.9 and Hochul+23.8 NY Governor Hochul (D) 99%, +14 NM Senate: Luján (D) vs Marker (R); middle of the range Luján+16.7; 90% of simulations between Luján+2.2 and Luján+31.4 NM Senate Luján (D) 97%, +17 RI Governor: Foulkes (D) vs Block (I); middle of the range Foulkes+17.4; 90% of simulations between Foulkes+7.8 and Foulkes+27.1 RI Governor Foulkes (D) >99%, +17 IL Senate: Stratton (D) vs Tracy (R); middle of the range Stratton+17.8; 90% of simulations between Stratton+3.2 and Stratton+32.5 IL Senate Stratton (D) 98%, +18 CO Senate: Hickenlooper (D) vs Baisley (R); middle of the range Hickenlooper+18.1; 90% of simulations between Hickenlooper+3.5 and Hickenlooper+32.8 CO Senate Hickenlooper (D) 98%, +18 CT Governor: Lamont (D) vs Fazio (R); middle of the range Lamont+18.2; 90% of simulations between Lamont+8.8 and Lamont+27.6 CT Governor Lamont (D) >99%, +18 VA Senate: Warner (D) vs Mizusawa (R); middle of the range Warner+18.5; 90% of simulations between Warner+1.2 and Warner+35.8 VA Senate Warner (D) 96%, +18 NJ Senate: Booker (D) vs Murphy (R); middle of the range Booker+19.9; 90% of simulations between Murphy+0.6 and Booker+40.5 NJ Senate Booker (D) 94%, +20 IL Governor: Pritzker (D) vs Bailey (R); middle of the range Pritzker+20.2; 90% of simulations between Pritzker+10.3 and Pritzker+30.2 IL Governor Pritzker (D) >99%, +20 PA Governor: Shapiro (D) vs Garrity (R); middle of the range Shapiro+21.6; 90% of simulations between Shapiro+12.1 and Shapiro+31.3 PA Governor Shapiro (D) >99%, +22 CO Governor: Weiser (D) vs Marx (R); middle of the range Weiser+21.7; 90% of simulations between Weiser+6.8 and Weiser+36.8 CO Governor Weiser (D) >99%, +22 MA Governor: Healey (D) vs Minogue (R); middle of the range Healey+23.7; 90% of simulations between Healey+14.3 and Healey+33.1 MA Governor Healey (D) >99%, +24 CA Governor: Becerra (D) vs Hilton (R); middle of the range Becerra+24.0; 90% of simulations between Becerra+14.7 and Becerra+33.4 CA Governor Becerra (D) >99%, +24 MA Senate: Markey (D) vs Deaton (R); middle of the range Markey+25.7; 90% of simulations between Markey+16.3 and Markey+35.1 MA Senate Markey (D) >99%, +26 OR Senate: Merkley (D) vs Smith (R); middle of the range Merkley+26.6; 90% of simulations between Merkley+6.3 and Merkley+47.0 OR Senate Merkley (D) 98%, +27 RI Senate: Reed (D) vs McKay (R); middle of the range Reed+27.1; 90% of simulations between Reed+16.9 and Reed+37.6 RI Senate Reed (D) >99%, +27 DE Senate: Coons (D) vs Katz (R); middle of the range Coons+28.7; 90% of simulations between Coons+8.5 and Coons+49.0 DE Senate Coons (D) >99%, +29 MD Governor: Moore (D) vs Cox (R); middle of the range Moore+30.6; 90% of simulations between Moore+15.7 and Moore+45.7 MD Governor Moore (D) >99%, +31 HI Governor: Green (D) vs Cordery (R); middle of the range Green+32.9; 90% of simulations between Green+11.8 and Green+53.9 HI Governor Green (D) >99%, +33 Favorite: chance, middle margin
How to read it. Races are sorted from the most Republican middle result at the top to the most Democratic at the bottom. Bands beyond forty points are cut at the edge.
Source. FutureBallot election-day forecast: 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the simulated margin, newest published run per race. Drawn November 2, 2026, 6:10 AM Pacific.
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