Forecast · Senate and governors

A Hundred Novembers

In twelve of the twenty-four closest Senate and governor races, the trailing candidate wins at least one November in four

Each square of a hundred dots is one race's forecast chance, counted out: a 70% chance is seventy dots in the favorite's color and thirty in the other candidate's. Those thirty are Novembers the forecast thinks can really happen, not errors.

Data as of the forecast published November 2, 2026.

Swipe the chart sideways to see all of it.

How to read it. Read across: the more dots in the trailing candidate's color, the closer the race. Races are ordered by the favorite's chance, lowest first. The middle margin is the middle of the race's simulated margins, in points, with the side ahead named.

Source. FutureBallot election-day forecast, newest published run per race. Of the races where the favorite's chance is below 97%, the twenty-four closest are shown. Drawn November 2, 2026, 6:10 AM Pacific.

Link to this chartChart image pageDownload the data (CSV)Free to republish with credit to FutureBallot.