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Forecast · Senate

The Seat Ridges

How the forecast for the Senate has shifted, week by week

Each ridge is one week's forecast: every simulated count of Democratic seats, piled up. Blue is the part of the ridge at or above a majority, red the part below it. Newest at the bottom. Senate: Democrats win 51 or more seats, a majority, in 73% of simulations and fall short in 27% of simulations.

Data as of the forecast published November 2, 2026.

Swipe the chart sideways to see all of it.

Democrats at a majority or aboveDemocrats short of a majoritySenate: Democratic seats51 for a majorityOct 12Oct 19Oct 26Nov 273% at 51 or more27% below 514045505560

How to read it. A ridge sliding right means more simulations with more Democratic seats; a ridge getting narrower means the forecast has grown more certain.

Source. FutureBallot election-day chamber forecasts: the newest published run, and before it, one run a week or more earlier than the ridge below it. In the Senate, if Democrats hold fifty seats, Republicans control the chamber through the vice president's vote. Drawn November 2, 2026, 6:10 AM Pacific.

Link to this chartChart image pageDownload the data (CSV)Free to republish with credit to FutureBallot.