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Forecast · Senate

The Closest Senate Races, Week by Week

KS Senate rose furthest of the charted races on the list of closest Senate races (any place below fourteenth counted as fifteenth), from number eleven to number two

The twelve closest Senate races today, and where each ranked on the list of closest races in each of the last six weeks. Lines that cross are races trading places.

Data as of the forecast published November 2, 2026.

Swipe the chart sideways to see all of it.

DemocratRepublicanSep 28Oct 5Oct 12Oct 19Oct 26Nov 23. AK · Peltola (D) 57%AK 310. FL · Moody (R) 86%1. IA · Hinson (R) 52%IA 62. KS · Hamilton (D) 56%KS 1111. LA · Letlow (R) 88%6. ME · Jackson (D) 72%ME 49. MI · El-Sayed (D) 81%MI 112. MN · Flanagan (D) 91%MN 84. NE · Ricketts (R) 58%NE 78. OH · Brown (D) 74%OH 57. SC · Graham (R) 73%SC 105. TX · Talarico (D) 69%TX 2Rank, closest = 1

How to read it. Rank one is the race whose favorite's chance is nearest 50%. Lines start lower down or below the chart when a race was further from the top twelve.

Source. FutureBallot election-day Senate forecasts: the newest published run on or before each date. Drawn November 2, 2026, 6:10 AM Pacific.

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